NexusFi: Find Your Edge


Home Menu

 





My 2 cents...


Discussion in Cryptocurrency

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one rleplae with 84 posts (196 thanks)
    2. looks_two SMCJB with 52 posts (111 thanks)
    3. looks_3 bobwest with 21 posts (63 thanks)
    4. looks_4 mattz with 15 posts (32 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one bobwest with 3 thanks per post
    2. looks_two rleplae with 2.3 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 SMCJB with 2.1 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 mattz with 2.1 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 50,652 views
    2. thumb_up 473 thanks given
    3. group 32 followers
    1. forum 226 posts
    2. attach_file 52 attachments




 
Search this Thread

My 2 cents...

  #11 (permalink)
 
SMCJB's Avatar
 SMCJB 
Houston TX
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TT and Stellar
Broker: Advantage Futures
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,041 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,375
Thanks Received: 10,192


rleplae View Post
I think the technology (block chain) is great and will be a game changer

I meant to mention this in my previous post, but got overly focused on my 2007 mortgage crisis rant.

Raoul Pal (of Goldman Sachs, GLG Partners, Global Macro Investor & Real Vision fame) has a very interesting perspective on Blockchain. He likes most people think it's going to be a game changing technology but unlike most people thinks that blockchain will go the same way as cloud computing did. That it will get so commiditized that Blockchain applications will become extremely cheap.

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on NexusFi?
Deepmoney LLM
Elite Quantitative GenAI/LLM
My NT8 Volume Profile Split by Asian/Euro/Open
NinjaTrader
NexusFi Journal Challenge - April 2024
Feedback and Announcements
Better Renko Gaps
The Elite Circle
Ninja Mobile Trader VPS (ninjamobiletrader.com)
Trading Reviews and Vendors
 
  #12 (permalink)
 
xplorer's Avatar
 xplorer 
London UK
Site Moderator
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: CQG
Broker: S5
Trading: Futures
Posts: 5,944 since Sep 2015
Thanks Given: 15,447
Thanks Received: 15,291


SMCJB View Post
I meant to mention this in my previous post, but got overly focused on my 2007 mortgage crisis rant.

Raoul Pal (of Goldman Sachs, GLG Partners, Global Macro Investor & Real Vision fame) has a very interesting perspective on Blockchain. He likes most people think it's going to be a game changing technology but unlike most people thinks that blockchain will go the same way as cloud computing did. That it will get so commiditized that Blockchain applications will become extremely cheap.

The issue with any cryptocurrency is that its system will be always subject to hacking. This is a problem unique to cryptocurrency, i.e. you can't hack (that I have seen) a regular exchange (such as CME, NYSE, etc.) to steal money, but you can hack and steal (transfer) money from a cryptocurrency exchange and there have been examples in the past.

One law of Information Security has always been that nothing is ever 100% secure, which puts the value of any cryptocurrency at risk of wild fluctuations should any further hacking take place.

I suppose the fluctuations could be equivalent to any fundamental news that today affect other markets but perhaps it's too soon to draw this kind of parallels.

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #13 (permalink)
 
rleplae's Avatar
 rleplae 
Gits (Hooglede) Belgium
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader, Proprietary,
Broker: Ninjabrokerage/IQfeed + Synthetic datafeed
Trading: 6A, 6B, 6C, 6E, 6J, 6S, ES, NQ, YM, AEX, CL, NG, ZB, ZN, ZC, ZS, GC
Posts: 3,003 since Sep 2013
Thanks Given: 2,442
Thanks Received: 5,863


New wave coming of regulatory measures (on crypto currencies)

https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/1241/text

Beijing?s bitcoin ban ?helped China dodge a scary cryptocurrency bubble? | South China Morning Post


and/or more euphoria

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/12/02/bitcoin-euphoria/

Dutch family sells everything to bet on bitcoin, Europe News & Top Stories - The Straits Times


global regulatory overview

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_bitcoin_by_country_or_territory


central banks point

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ecb-bitcoin-mersch/ecb-tells-banks-to-embrace-instant-payments-to-beat-bitcoin-idUSKBN1DU11O

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/29/investors-are-taking-risk-by-buying-expensive-cryptocurrencies.html

Follow me on Twitter Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
  #14 (permalink)
 
rleplae's Avatar
 rleplae 
Gits (Hooglede) Belgium
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader, Proprietary,
Broker: Ninjabrokerage/IQfeed + Synthetic datafeed
Trading: 6A, 6B, 6C, 6E, 6J, 6S, ES, NQ, YM, AEX, CL, NG, ZB, ZN, ZC, ZS, GC
Posts: 3,003 since Sep 2013
Thanks Given: 2,442
Thanks Received: 5,863

Rally to get the derivatives out...

Then who will be on the short side of those trades ?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cboe-beats-cme-bitcoin-futures-143232495.html

Follow me on Twitter Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #15 (permalink)
 
rleplae's Avatar
 rleplae 
Gits (Hooglede) Belgium
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader, Proprietary,
Broker: Ninjabrokerage/IQfeed + Synthetic datafeed
Trading: 6A, 6B, 6C, 6E, 6J, 6S, ES, NQ, YM, AEX, CL, NG, ZB, ZN, ZC, ZS, GC
Posts: 3,003 since Sep 2013
Thanks Given: 2,442
Thanks Received: 5,863

Treasury plans cryptocurrency crackdown - Citywire

Follow me on Twitter Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
  #16 (permalink)
 
mattz's Avatar
 mattz   is a Vendor
 
Posts: 2,493 since Sep 2010
Thanks Given: 2,440
Thanks Received: 3,789


rleplae View Post
Rally to get the derivatives out...

Then who will be on the short side of those trades ?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cboe-beats-cme-bitcoin-futures-143232495.html

In my opinion, one group that needs to hedge are the miners. They would want to protect their downside while they mine and take the short side.

Matt Z
Optimus Futures

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You may lose more than your initial investment. All posts are opinions and do not claim to be facts. Please conduct your own due diligence. Use only Risk capital when trading Futures.
1 800 771 6748 local 561 367 8686 email [email protected]
Reply With Quote
  #17 (permalink)
 
rleplae's Avatar
 rleplae 
Gits (Hooglede) Belgium
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader, Proprietary,
Broker: Ninjabrokerage/IQfeed + Synthetic datafeed
Trading: 6A, 6B, 6C, 6E, 6J, 6S, ES, NQ, YM, AEX, CL, NG, ZB, ZN, ZC, ZS, GC
Posts: 3,003 since Sep 2013
Thanks Given: 2,442
Thanks Received: 5,863


mattz View Post
In my opinion, one group that needs to hedge are the miners. They would want to protect their downside while they mine and take the short side.

Matt Z
Optimus Futures

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Difficult call...
To my knowledge the output of the mining is not linear, not predictable and for sure more and more difficult...

Follow me on Twitter Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #18 (permalink)
 tpredictor 
North Carolina
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, Tradestation
Trading: es
Posts: 644 since Nov 2011

According to reports in the media, the HFT wanted these products. They can trade so fast that they front run either side. Below is a rational breakdown of the players

HFT: Want something to arb and/or front run
Brokers: Very upset that BTC/XBT exchanges are doing tons of volume. They make their living after all from trading commissions.
Whales: Hold BTC in cold storage, can't easily hedge on a downturn because can't move their BTC.
CTA's/Other futures traders: Haven't been able to make a profit in 10 years. Low volatility environment makes consistent profits extremely difficult. Perhaps hoping a new market will change the luck? Sorry, CTA's the BTC market is already algo dominated.

I suspect most of the shorting will be from primary holders, day traders, and HFT. Again, let's think if you have 10 million or something in cold storage. You do not want to put that at the risk of any exchange. But, if you have some sort of trading model (such as go flat or short bias when market is under 200 MA-- just an example) then you can't trade it. Small retail traders, of course, don't care as much to trade on unproven exchanges but with bigger money then they will.

One problem is that these products are not BTC cleared. Because they are cash settled, I do not see them as great short products. It will require a lot of cash. You will have to move some BTC from cold storage to the exchange to convert to cash to meet margin if it moves against you.

Also, again I see these products as a form of risk protection for the ultra wealthy. They represent a new source of diversification and alpha. I mean people talk about the risk of the bubble but also let's talk about the risk losing 1000% of your buying power in BTC. If you priced everything in BTC, you're down something like 1000%. So, I think the gold analogy is very reasonable and it is possible that they could take a lot of the gold market share. BTC is more functional then gold. I think as a medium of exchange, rationally, BTC has more value then gold because you can exchange it more easily. As a store of value, gold obviously has more value because of longevity.

Reply With Quote
  #19 (permalink)
 
mattz's Avatar
 mattz   is a Vendor
 
Posts: 2,493 since Sep 2010
Thanks Given: 2,440
Thanks Received: 3,789


rleplae View Post
Difficult call...
To my knowledge the output of the mining is not linear, not predictable and for sure more and more difficult...

Your technical background in this field would lead you to better conclusions than I would. Although I am well read in the applications of Blockchains, I am still trying to wrap my head around the mathematical side and the mining side.

Matt Z
Optimus Futures

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You may lose more than your initial investment. All posts are opinions and do not claim to be facts. Please conduct your own due diligence. Use only Risk capital when trading Futures.
1 800 771 6748 local 561 367 8686 email [email protected]
Reply With Quote
  #20 (permalink)
 
rleplae's Avatar
 rleplae 
Gits (Hooglede) Belgium
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader, Proprietary,
Broker: Ninjabrokerage/IQfeed + Synthetic datafeed
Trading: 6A, 6B, 6C, 6E, 6J, 6S, ES, NQ, YM, AEX, CL, NG, ZB, ZN, ZC, ZS, GC
Posts: 3,003 since Sep 2013
Thanks Given: 2,442
Thanks Received: 5,863



mattz View Post
Your technical background in this field would lead you to better conclusions than I would. Although I am well read in the applications of Blockchains, I am still trying to wrap my head around the mathematical side and the mining side.

Matt Z
Optimus Futures

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

This is what i was making reference to :


Follow me on Twitter Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
Thanked by:




Last Updated on March 20, 2019


© 2024 NexusFi™, s.a., All Rights Reserved.
Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama City, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada)
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
About Us - Contact Us - Site Rules, Acceptable Use, and Terms and Conditions - Privacy Policy - Downloads - Top
no new posts