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BTC valuation, forecasts


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BTC valuation, forecasts

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  #1 (permalink)
bob666s
Auckland + auckland/new zealand
 
 
Posts: 54 since Jun 2016
Thanks: 6 given, 34 received

I will post estimated average production cost, and associated fair values and price forecasts.
At the same time, I'll take any suggestions for improvement, thanks!

Current estimates of production cost and forecast for the coming 6months:


Current estimates of FV and forecast for the coming 6months:


Bits of the forecast ideas are associated with the "stock to flow" theory, though I do have issues with it. Details around how and why these valuations are done are explained here: https://bastion.substack.com/p/analyzing-btc-valuation-theory-s2f

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  #2 (permalink)
bob666s
Auckland + auckland/new zealand
 
 
Posts: 54 since Jun 2016
Thanks: 6 given, 34 received

updated average production cost at $35.5K~



quarterly forecasts for the coming year available at: https://bastion.substack.com/p/bitcoin-production-cost-fair-valuation/comments

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  #3 (permalink)
bob666s
Auckland + auckland/new zealand
 
 
Posts: 54 since Jun 2016
Thanks: 6 given, 34 received


updated production cost current estimates and forecasts.


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bob666s
Auckland + auckland/new zealand
 
 
Posts: 54 since Jun 2016
Thanks: 6 given, 34 received

Plugged COT position data, cme futures & options, into a MLP neural network fit vs. following month change in BTC. Current average forecast is weakly bullish.



details and more graphs haha, are available here: https://bastion.substack.com/p/bitcoin-price-bias-wrt-cme-positions

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bob666s
Auckland + auckland/new zealand
 
 
Posts: 54 since Jun 2016
Thanks: 6 given, 34 received

updated price distribution forechast for the coming month, using cot cme positions and M2,


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bob666s
Auckland + auckland/new zealand
 
 
Posts: 54 since Jun 2016
Thanks: 6 given, 34 received

short term price bias with deribit, bit.com option oi, flows using multiple regression, bullish.


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bob666s
Auckland + auckland/new zealand
 
 
Posts: 54 since Jun 2016
Thanks: 6 given, 34 received

aggregate price bias based on COT positions




write up and graphs: https://bastion.substack.com/p/btc-price-bias-w-cot

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