BTC valuation, forecasts

October 1st, 2021, 07:10 AM

I will post estimated average production cost, and associated fair values and price forecasts.
At the same time, I'll take any suggestions for improvement, thanks!

Current estimates of production cost and forecast for the coming 6months:

Current estimates of FV and forecast for the coming 6months:

Bits of the forecast ideas are associated with the "stock to flow" theory, though I do have issues with it. Details around how and why these valuations are done are explained here: https://bastion.substack.com/p/analyzing-btc-valuation-theory-s2f

October 4th, 2021, 03:23 AM

updated average production cost at $35.5K~

quarterly forecasts for the coming year available at: https://bastion.substack.com/p/bitcoin-production-cost-fair-valuation/comments

October 6th, 2021, 02:57 AM

updated production cost current estimates and forecasts.

October 7th, 2021, 11:49 PM

Plugged COT position data, cme futures & options, into a MLP neural network fit vs. following month change in BTC. Current average forecast is weakly bullish.

details and more graphs haha, are available here: https://bastion.substack.com/p/bitcoin-price-bias-wrt-cme-positions

October 9th, 2021, 01:07 AM

updated price distribution forechast for the coming month, using cot cme positions and M2,

October 11th, 2021, 01:18 AM

short term price bias with deribit, bit.com option oi, flows using multiple regression, bullish.

October 16th, 2021, 02:51 AM

aggregate price bias based on COT positions

write up and graphs: https://bastion.substack.com/p/btc-price-bias-w-cot

October 20th, 2021, 02:15 AM

updated average production cost estimate + forecasts:

Derived long term fair value (price magnet) estimate and forecasts, based on an estimated average profit margin of miners:

November 3rd, 2021, 02:49 AM

Model short term outlook based on option flows, Mining stats, and SPX/Oil/Gas relative valuations turned bearish for the first time in a long while.

Hypothetical historical trading performance of the model interpolated forecasts:

All relevant graphs and write up.

November 3rd, 2021, 09:45 AM

I have no positions in Crypto as of today but thanks for putting this together for us.

BTC valuation, forecasts

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BTC valuation, forecasts