A Bitcoin Believer’s Crisis of Faith - futures io
futures io



A Bitcoin Believer’s Crisis of Faith


Discussion in Crypto Futures

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one SMCJB with 22 posts (10 thanks)
    2. looks_two Pedro40 with 16 posts (8 thanks)
    3. looks_3 Neo1 with 12 posts (4 thanks)
    4. looks_4 suko with 8 posts (2 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one tpredictor with 1.3 thanks per post
    2. looks_two SMCJB with 0.5 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 Pedro40 with 0.5 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 Neo1 with 0.3 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 18,490 views
    2. thumb_up 43 thanks given
    3. group 16 followers
    1. forum 90 posts
    2. attach_file 1 attachments




Welcome to futures io: the largest futures trading community on the planet, with well over 125,000 members
  • Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
  • Quality education from leading professional traders
  • We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
  • We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

 
Search this Thread
 

A Bitcoin Believer’s Crisis of Faith

(login for full post details)
  #1 (permalink)
 SMCJB 
Legendary Market Wizard
Houston, TX
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Trading Technologies
Broker: Primary Advantage Futures. Also ED&F and Tradestation
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little GE, GC, SI & Bitcoin
 
Posts: 4,101 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 3,407 given, 8,127 received

NYTimes :- A Bitcoin Believer’s Crisis of Faith

A nasty fight has torn apart the core software developers of Bitcoin, exposing fundamental differences about the virtual currency's future direction and raising questions of its long-term viability.

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/17/business/dealbook/the-bitcoin-believer-who-gave-up.html

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to SMCJB for this post:

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on futures io?
How do you put a consolidation into EL?
EasyLanguage Programming
need help writing easylanguage radarscreen weekly perfor …
EasyLanguage Programming
NT8 connectivity by FXI API to unsupported brokers?
NinjaTrader
Weather services for trading NG
Trading Reviews and Vendors
Thinkorswim MACD Thinkscript
ThinkOrSwim
 
Best Threads (Most Thanked)
in the last 7 days on futures io
How much do you know about Bitcoin?
129 thanks
I finally blew up an account
36 thanks
Big Mike in Ecuador
28 thanks
EdgeProX from Edge Clear
24 thanks
The tiyfTradePlanFactory indicator
22 thanks
 
(login for full post details)
  #2 (permalink)
 xplorer 
Site Moderator
London UK
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: CQG
Broker: S5
Trading: Futures
 
xplorer's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,391 since Sep 2015
Thanks: 13,605 given, 13,118 received


SMCJB View Post
NYTimes :- A Bitcoin Believer’s Crisis of Faith

A nasty fight has torn apart the core software developers of Bitcoin, exposing fundamental differences about the virtual currency's future direction and raising questions of its long-term viability.

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/17/business/dealbook/the-bitcoin-believer-who-gave-up.html

I read about Bitcoin a bit in the past few years but I haven't been able to form an opinion in terms as to whether it can be seen as a proper currency comparable to established country currencies.

Certainly technical people seem to like it but probably more because of its 'crypto-' and 'cyber-' features than anything else.

@SMCJB what do you think of it?

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to xplorer for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3 (permalink)
 SMCJB 
Legendary Market Wizard
Houston, TX
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Trading Technologies
Broker: Primary Advantage Futures. Also ED&F and Tradestation
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little GE, GC, SI & Bitcoin
 
Posts: 4,101 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 3,407 given, 8,127 received


I think the technology, especially the block chain concept, is revolutionary and will be the base of many new things to come in the new future.

Unfortunately specific to Bitcoin, I don't see how it can be viable with the self-imposed 21 million Bitcoin cap. If Bitcoin were to take off as a currency, that cap would mean that the value of Bitcoin would soar, purely due to lack of supply, not due to an increase in value. As such I tend to think the currency itself is a little ponzi-ish in that the first people in profit as it gets more popular.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #4 (permalink)
 xplorer 
Site Moderator
London UK
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: CQG
Broker: S5
Trading: Futures
 
xplorer's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,391 since Sep 2015
Thanks: 13,605 given, 13,118 received

I see, thanks. Clearly we're not talking about a fungible good here, especially given it's definitely not the only method of payment out there, so would that mean that scarcity shouldn't really affect its value at fundamental level, unlike, say, commodities?

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #5 (permalink)
 TheTradeSlinger 
Huntington WV
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: ES, CL
 
TheTradeSlinger's Avatar
 
Posts: 430 since Jun 2015
Thanks: 714 given, 589 received

Oh bitcoin.

I feel bad for the suckers that got caught up/are still caught up in that mess.

Pure delusion if you think bitcoin or any other "virtual currency" will ever replace the dollar as so many bitcoiners are rabid about.

The technology might be great, might be useful for various applications, but as for bitcoin becoming a real currency? Let alone millions of dollars per bitcoin as so many would have you believe?

Forget about it.

Also, I consider myself pretty tech literate, I'd call myself a tech guy. If I have trouble acquiring and using bitcoins, bet your bottom dollar few people will take the time to learn how to acquire/use them.

That being said, some services like Coinbase are making it easier to get/spend bitcoins.

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #6 (permalink)
 xplorer 
Site Moderator
London UK
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: CQG
Broker: S5
Trading: Futures
 
xplorer's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,391 since Sep 2015
Thanks: 13,605 given, 13,118 received

The article goes

'Part of the basic appeal of Bitcoin has been its promise to provide a more reliable and trustworthy alternative to existing currencies and financial networks. Unlike the Federal Reserve and Wall Street, institutions that are managed by humans, Bitcoin was supposed to rest on the infallible logic of math and computer code.'

Well you can't consider it trustworthy when security loopholes allowed the theft of $350m in value, can you.


TheTradeSlinger View Post
Oh bitcoin.
Pure delusion if you think bitcoin or any other "virtual currency" will ever replace the dollar as so many bitcoiners are rabid about.

I don't see any cryptocurrency replacing currencies any time soon. In order for that to happen we'd need a fundamental shift in how the global economy works I think.

The only advantage that I can see so far is that payments have a moderate ability to be untraceable. But except to people doing shady deal, who benefits?

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to xplorer for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #7 (permalink)
 SMCJB 
Legendary Market Wizard
Houston, TX
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Trading Technologies
Broker: Primary Advantage Futures. Also ED&F and Tradestation
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little GE, GC, SI & Bitcoin
 
Posts: 4,101 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 3,407 given, 8,127 received

Payments also become virtually free to execute, as opposed the massive fees charged for credit cards and wire transfers.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #8 (permalink)
Pedro40
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
 
 
Posts: 563 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 33 given, 377 received


SMCJB View Post
Payments also become virtually free to execute,

No such a thing as free lunch. Currently every transaction's cost is like $4 I think. (daily coins created x value / daily transactions)

The question is just who actually pays those costs.

Bitcoin is a failed sociological exercise, but good entertainment.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Pedro40 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #9 (permalink)
 SMCJB 
Legendary Market Wizard
Houston, TX
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Trading Technologies
Broker: Primary Advantage Futures. Also ED&F and Tradestation
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little GE, GC, SI & Bitcoin
 
Posts: 4,101 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 3,407 given, 8,127 received

The coins are created out of nothing, so the only really cost is dilution.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #10 (permalink)
 Neo1 
Christchurch, New Zealand
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC
Broker: IB, BC, Dx Feed
Trading: US Equities
 
Neo1's Avatar
 
Posts: 428 since Jul 2014
Thanks: 471 given, 501 received



Pedro40 View Post
No such a thing as free lunch. Currently every transaction's cost is like $4 I think. (daily coins created x value / daily transactions)

The question is just who actually pays those costs.

The "workers" aka the Bitcoin miners.

Does anyone in this thread actually know anything about Bitcoin?

"Free markets work because they allow people to be lucky, thanks to aggressive trial and error, not by giving rewards or incentives for skill. The strategy is, then, to tinker as much as possible and try to collect as many Black Swan opportunities as you can"
Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #11 (permalink)
 rleplae 
Gits (Hooglede) Belgium
 
Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader, Proprietary,
Broker: Ninjabrokerage/IQfeed + Synthetic datafeed
Trading: 6A, 6B, 6C, 6E, 6J, 6S, ES, NQ, YM, AEX, CL, NG, ZB, ZN, ZC, ZS, GC
 
rleplae's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,991 since Sep 2013
Thanks: 2,437 given, 5,802 received


Neo1 View Post
The "workers" aka the Bitcoin miners.

Does anyone in this thread actually know anything about Bitcoin?

Bitcoin mining is no longer profitable
there is no business case..

Bitcoin has a reason to exist
but completely different, not for mining profitability

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #12 (permalink)
Pedro40
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
 
 
Posts: 563 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 33 given, 377 received


Neo1 View Post
The "workers" aka the Bitcoin miners.

Does anyone in this thread actually know anything about Bitcoin?

Probably way more than you do. It isn't the miners alone who pay the cost but also whoever buys everyday the extra coins coming into the market. A miner can be profitable, thus he is profiting from mining, and his profits doesn't come from thin air, but from the market buyers. Sure, he does bear some of the cost, depending on his own mining cost, but the rest is paid by the market place, and if you ever bought bitcoin it is also YOU...

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Pedro40 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #13 (permalink)
 xplorer 
Site Moderator
London UK
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: CQG
Broker: S5
Trading: Futures
 
xplorer's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,391 since Sep 2015
Thanks: 13,605 given, 13,118 received


Pedro40 View Post
Probably way more than you do. It isn't the miners alone who pay the cost but also whoever buys everyday the extra coins coming into the market. A miner can be profitable, thus he is profiting from mining, and his profits doesn't come from thin air, but from the market buyers. Sure, he does bear some of the cost, depending on his own mining cost, but the rest is paid by the market place, and if you ever bought bitcoin it is also YOU...

Years ago I read about the mining process. It did not look like a sustainable process. Because of the processing power needed to 'mine' the coins the equipment was fairly expensive, and the investment needed did not seem to justify the return.

Because the complexity needed for the mining process increases as more coins are more mined I can only guess that the returns are less and less convenient now.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #14 (permalink)
 Neo1 
Christchurch, New Zealand
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC
Broker: IB, BC, Dx Feed
Trading: US Equities
 
Neo1's Avatar
 
Posts: 428 since Jul 2014
Thanks: 471 given, 501 received


Pedro40 View Post
Probably way more than you do. It isn't the miners alone who pay the cost but also whoever buys everyday the extra coins coming into the market. A miner can be profitable, thus he is profiting from mining, and his profits doesn't come from thin air, but from the market buyers. Sure, he does bear some of the cost, depending on his own mining cost, but the rest is paid by the market place, and if you ever bought bitcoin it is also YOU...

Perhaps you do, i'm no BTC expert. I'm just some dude who buys and sells coins.

I made the comment because often the people who criticize Bitcoin are those who have never even owned any Bitcoin, and don't understand how it works. They've just read a few articles and are now experts on the future of Bitcoin...

It's the equivalent of sharing your opinion about the spoos in the the Spoos thread, when you have never even traded the Spoos.

"Free markets work because they allow people to be lucky, thanks to aggressive trial and error, not by giving rewards or incentives for skill. The strategy is, then, to tinker as much as possible and try to collect as many Black Swan opportunities as you can"
Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #15 (permalink)
 TheTradeSlinger 
Huntington WV
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: ES, CL
 
TheTradeSlinger's Avatar
 
Posts: 430 since Jun 2015
Thanks: 714 given, 589 received

https://blog.plan99.net/the-resolution-of-the-bitcoin-experiment-dabb30201f7

A core developer's thoughts on bitcoin and its future.

A trading related term comes to mind: bagholders.

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to TheTradeSlinger for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #16 (permalink)
 xplorer 
Site Moderator
London UK
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: CQG
Broker: S5
Trading: Futures
 
xplorer's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,391 since Sep 2015
Thanks: 13,605 given, 13,118 received


TheTradeSlinger View Post
https://blog.plan99.net/the-resolution-of-the-bitcoin-experiment-dabb30201f7

A core developer's thoughts on bitcoin and its future.

A trading related term comes to mind: bagholders.

Quite the grim picture this developer has painted

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #17 (permalink)
Pedro40
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
 
 
Posts: 563 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 33 given, 377 received


xplorer View Post
Quite the grim picture this developer has painted

I think he is right on the money.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #18 (permalink)
 xplorer 
Site Moderator
London UK
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: CQG
Broker: S5
Trading: Futures
 
xplorer's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,391 since Sep 2015
Thanks: 13,605 given, 13,118 received

Well it did took a bit of a dive in the last day....

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	bitcoin.png
Views:	124
Size:	34.8 KB
ID:	201131  
Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #19 (permalink)
 Neo1 
Christchurch, New Zealand
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC
Broker: IB, BC, Dx Feed
Trading: US Equities
 
Neo1's Avatar
 
Posts: 428 since Jul 2014
Thanks: 471 given, 501 received

Mike Hearn recently got a new job at R3 which is a blockchain project backed by over 30 major banks. Then he posts an article on Medium and the NYT that states his old ‘employer’ has a lot of problems.

https://medium.com/@Technomage/bitcoin-has-now-died-89-times-274df173c246#.prja3ioi8

"Free markets work because they allow people to be lucky, thanks to aggressive trial and error, not by giving rewards or incentives for skill. The strategy is, then, to tinker as much as possible and try to collect as many Black Swan opportunities as you can"
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Neo1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #20 (permalink)
 SMCJB 
Legendary Market Wizard
Houston, TX
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Trading Technologies
Broker: Primary Advantage Futures. Also ED&F and Tradestation
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little GE, GC, SI & Bitcoin
 
Posts: 4,101 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 3,407 given, 8,127 received


Neo1 View Post
Mike Hearn recently got a new job at R3 which is a blockchain project backed by over 30 major banks. Then he posts an article on Medium and the NYT that states his old ‘employer’ has a lot of problems.

https://medium.com/@Technomage/bitcoin-has-now-died-89-times-274df173c246#.prja3ioi8

Thanks. Interesting that he addressed so many of Hearn's points but avoided the XT issue completely, including the DoS attacks and the censoring.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #21 (permalink)
Pedro40
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
 
 
Posts: 563 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 33 given, 377 received


Neo1 View Post
[B]Mike Hearn recently got a new job at

Pizza Hut? How about addressing his concerns, all of them were completely legit??? Freaking bitcoin can't even handle m ore than 3 transactions per second, Visa does 10K... Future of money for sure...

Also shitload of problems but since there is no consensus, they never get fixed...

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #22 (permalink)
 SMCJB 
Legendary Market Wizard
Houston, TX
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Trading Technologies
Broker: Primary Advantage Futures. Also ED&F and Tradestation
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little GE, GC, SI & Bitcoin
 
Posts: 4,101 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 3,407 given, 8,127 received

Jamie Dimon just said on CNBC (in Davos) that he thinks Bitcoin will go nowhere but that the Blockchain was here to stay and has the ability to change a lot of things.

Interestingly he thinks that Bitcoin will never go anywhere because if it did start succeeding that the major governments would shut it down.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #23 (permalink)
 rleplae 
Gits (Hooglede) Belgium
 
Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader, Proprietary,
Broker: Ninjabrokerage/IQfeed + Synthetic datafeed
Trading: 6A, 6B, 6C, 6E, 6J, 6S, ES, NQ, YM, AEX, CL, NG, ZB, ZN, ZC, ZS, GC
 
rleplae's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,991 since Sep 2013
Thanks: 2,437 given, 5,802 received


SMCJB View Post
Interestingly he thinks that Bitcoin will never go anywhere because if it did start succeeding that the major governments would shut it down.

Governments can not shut down something people trust or associate value to..
Governments can make it illegal... which probably would only fuel it.. the intrinsic value and the alternative attraction power

However, the moment that people no longer believe in the legal tender of the local currency
then you will see something...

It could potentially spark a wave of barter, and barter is much more difficult to tax than exchange
of so called government created legal tender 'money'... What justifies that governments like and
the ECB can just continue to create money (euros) out of thin air ?

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to rleplae for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #24 (permalink)
 SMCJB 
Legendary Market Wizard
Houston, TX
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Trading Technologies
Broker: Primary Advantage Futures. Also ED&F and Tradestation
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little GE, GC, SI & Bitcoin
 
Posts: 4,101 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 3,407 given, 8,127 received


rleplae View Post
Governments can not shut down something people trust or associate value to..
Governments can make it illegal... which probably would only fuel it.. the intrinsic value and the alternative attraction power

The US Government did a pretty good job of shutting down online gambling & poker in the US (it was already illegal). How? They made it illegal for Banks, Credit Card Companies, Payment Processors etc to transfer money to the online sites. Hasn't wiped it out completely but it crushed the industry as a whole. Obviously Bitcoin is a lot more international in scope, but if the major developed countries coordinated their policies it would probably give Bitcoin some major issues.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #25 (permalink)
Pedro40
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
 
 
Posts: 563 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 33 given, 377 received


rleplae View Post
Governments can not shut down something people trust or associate value to..

Sure they can. They make it illegal to accept it as legal tender for retailers, there goes the usefulness of bitcoin. Then you can only buy alpaca socks from Brazil or drugs from darknet markets, but nothing from any real online store. Not to mention if your wallet gets hacked you can't even complain about it anymore.

So your thinking is a fallacy and you should better get back to real life. The first time terrorist use bitcoin in a provable way will be the end of non-regulation...

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #26 (permalink)
 rleplae 
Gits (Hooglede) Belgium
 
Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader, Proprietary,
Broker: Ninjabrokerage/IQfeed + Synthetic datafeed
Trading: 6A, 6B, 6C, 6E, 6J, 6S, ES, NQ, YM, AEX, CL, NG, ZB, ZN, ZC, ZS, GC
 
rleplae's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,991 since Sep 2013
Thanks: 2,437 given, 5,802 received


Pedro40 View Post
So your thinking is a fallacy and you should better get back to real life. The first time terrorist use bitcoin in a provable way will be the end of non-regulation...

In traditional think yes
In thinking where people don't trust the 'value' of a counter delivery the dynamics will chainge

If i think that the XYZ €, US$, RMB, or whatever your currency is, does not give me sufficient guarntee
that tomorrow i can buy an equal 'valuable' service, the currency is finished, that's the bottom line
thinking..

In ancient history, people had silver coins, gold coins, etc... this tive them guarantee to be able to buy
certain goods and services.In modern economy we have an issue that potentially people don't trust
any more the local currency and are looking for a surrogate (hence the bitcoin and other crypto currencies)

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #27 (permalink)
Pedro40
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
 
 
Posts: 563 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 33 given, 377 received


rleplae View Post
In traditional think yes

There is no other kind of thinking. If you are coming with the paradigm shift and other BS, I would like you to remember the late 90s when tech stock went up 100s on no earnings. Profits and a working business model didn't count anymore because that was the old, traditional thinking. Then something happened and the paradigm shift disappeared.

Bitcoin is nothing special compared to any other crypto currency. It is not working as a payment method (unless you call 3 transactions per second working) currently, it is hard to improve because there is no consensus and incredibly vulnerable to attacks, competition and banning. Hell, it couldn't even handle the stress test 2 months ago when for a paltry $500 a day someone was ddosing the system with a bunch of transactions...

If you want to bet your future on such an investment, so be it, but you have been warned... I am not saying it isn't tradable (it very much is because of the volatility), but nobody should be holding it for the long run for thinking of getting rich...

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #28 (permalink)
 rleplae 
Gits (Hooglede) Belgium
 
Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader, Proprietary,
Broker: Ninjabrokerage/IQfeed + Synthetic datafeed
Trading: 6A, 6B, 6C, 6E, 6J, 6S, ES, NQ, YM, AEX, CL, NG, ZB, ZN, ZC, ZS, GC
 
rleplae's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,991 since Sep 2013
Thanks: 2,437 given, 5,802 received


Pedro40 View Post
There is no other kind of thinking. If you are coming with the paradigm shift and other BS, I would like you to remember the late 90s when tech stock went up 100s on no earnings. Profits and a working business model didn't count anymore because that was the old, traditional thinking. Then something happened and the paradigm shift disappeared.

Bitcoin is nothing special compared to any other crypto currency. It is not working as a payment method (unless you call 3 transactions per second working) currently, it is hard to improve because there is no consensus and incredibly vulnerable to attacks, competition and banning. Hell, it couldn't even handle the stress test 2 months ago when for a paltry $500 a day someone was ddosing the system with a bunch of transactions...

If you want to bet your future on such an investment, so be it, but you have been warned... I am not saying it isn't tradable (it very much is because of the volatility), but nobody should be holding it for the long run for thinking of getting rich...

Hello @Pedro40

Please allow me to give you some real-live payment experience.. reality.. of the so called 'trusted' visa, mastercard systems with world class banks... to put you back feet on the ground...

If you like to discuss traditional payment systems and cash system, i can give you a few examples of complete failure, beyond the preliminary Bitcoin issues... based on real live experience...

1° you withdraw cash from a counter top device (Ingenico) and the transaction fails (typical time-out) on the communication, luckily the device generates a ticket, otherwise you are already f#@&ed.. showing the technical error.No harm you try a second time... then the device gets a response from your bank (in this case it is ING, a world class European bank) for a daily limit overdraft (not an account overdraft, but an overdraft on the maximum amount you are allowed to withdraw in cash per day). result : two tickets, no cash. two attempts, no cash. you walk away...

a few moments/hours later you watch your account and realize that the amount has been "reserved" out of your account. (technically it means the authorization was done on your account, the second request was refused because of the first message, there is a technical message called technical reversal, which in case of a time out could fix everything, but most banks/acquirers are too lousy to correctly implement it...)

you contact your world class bank (ING in this case) they say.. no problem...the money is not yet taken, just reserved..

you contact the acquirer bank (Leumi Card Israel in this case) they say, not problem

few days later, the money for the cash withdrawal, you never received in the first place, is debited out of your account...

2° we get to the level of dispute...

luckily you have both of the tickets (imagina you don't... you are...
( as a rule of good practice i strongly recommend you to always take a different amount
so in case of a dispute you can not only identify a transaction by the date but also
by the amount, if not the bank is perfectly capable of picked the wrong transaction
and saying, this transaction went perfectly without any problems....)

first reaction of the bank is .. not possible
you insist and with resistance, they open a case

weeks pass and nothing happens...
you ask for an update and no answer
you tell them you will put on facebook or social media and all of a sudden the bank branch is no longer allowed to answer
a district manager of ING takes over.. giving no answer and refusing to give an update

3° the good news of the story is that after nearly 2 Months of waiting the money is again in your account


Now tell me if this is :

1° a good customer service
2° what the regulator had in mind
3° where did the money stay all the time ? there should have been an imbalance somewhere ?
4° does it really take 2 moths ? (= 60 days to investigate a problem, for which the basis is just
lousy programming of a terminal vendor like Ingenico, An acquirer like Leumi card or an issuer
like ING bank ?)


In my opinion, it is time that some new incumbents challenge some of those dinosours for their
service and their operations...

With regards to Bitcoins and criminals, i warmly appreciate interpol activity like :

https://www.europol.europa.eu/content/international-action-against-dd4bc-cybercriminal-group

which makes well intended crypto currency more viable

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #29 (permalink)
 Neo1 
Christchurch, New Zealand
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC
Broker: IB, BC, Dx Feed
Trading: US Equities
 
Neo1's Avatar
 
Posts: 428 since Jul 2014
Thanks: 471 given, 501 received

The IMF is Talking & Vouching for Virtual Currencies and Blockchain Tech

https://www.ccn.com/imf-director-talks-up-virtual-currencies-and-blockchain-tech/


Block Chain currencies are here to stay. Bitcoin might fail, however it's currently in the drivers seat...

"Free markets work because they allow people to be lucky, thanks to aggressive trial and error, not by giving rewards or incentives for skill. The strategy is, then, to tinker as much as possible and try to collect as many Black Swan opportunities as you can"
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Neo1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #30 (permalink)
Pedro40
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
 
 
Posts: 563 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 33 given, 377 received


rleplae View Post

In my opinion, it is time that some new incumbents challenge some of those dinosaurs for their
service and their operations...

Sure but it doesn't have to be a completely shitty neckbeard operation like bitcoin. Imagine if Walmart or Amazon would release a virtual currency premined and distributed among retail users. Amazon has already 100 million costumers, that is 100 million potential useers if each gets a coin. Who doesn't like a free few bucks? Bitcoin has like what, a 100 thousand users maybe?

What is the advantage of a centralized coin? if there are problems they can be fixed in a few days instead of YEARS. Freaking bitcoin is still in alpha after 7 years of existence, and they can't reach consensus on basic features like the 2 MB increase and such.

Not to mention the banking industry could DDoS bitcoin into oblivion, if they wanted, it costs so little.

You tell me when any blockchain can handle 10000 transactions per SECONDS, like Visa does today, and I sign up the next day...

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Pedro40 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #31 (permalink)
 TheTradeSlinger 
Huntington WV
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: ES, CL
 
TheTradeSlinger's Avatar
 
Posts: 430 since Jun 2015
Thanks: 714 given, 589 received


rleplae View Post
Hello @Pedro40
to put you back feet on the ground...

Let's put our "feet on the ground" about bitcoin payments.

There is no recourse for a user once the bitcoins leave his or her account.

Scammed? Wrong item? Want a refund? Too bad.

This reason alone is a HUGE negative issue with bitcoin.

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #32 (permalink)
 Neo1 
Christchurch, New Zealand
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC
Broker: IB, BC, Dx Feed
Trading: US Equities
 
Neo1's Avatar
 
Posts: 428 since Jul 2014
Thanks: 471 given, 501 received


TheTradeSlinger View Post
Let's put our "feet on the ground" about bitcoin payments.

There is no recourse for a user once the bitcoins leave his or her account.

Scammed? Wrong item? Want a refund? Too bad.

This reason alone is a HUGE negative issue with bitcoin.

lol

"Free markets work because they allow people to be lucky, thanks to aggressive trial and error, not by giving rewards or incentives for skill. The strategy is, then, to tinker as much as possible and try to collect as many Black Swan opportunities as you can"
Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #33 (permalink)
 Neo1 
Christchurch, New Zealand
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC
Broker: IB, BC, Dx Feed
Trading: US Equities
 
Neo1's Avatar
 
Posts: 428 since Jul 2014
Thanks: 471 given, 501 received


Pedro40 View Post
You tell me when any blockchain can handle 10000 transactions per SECONDS, like Visa does today, and I sign up the next day...

Maybe you'll be signing up soon then...


What the "Big Banks" have said about Bitcoin


Goldman Sachs

"What if I told you that bitcoin was just the opening act … with the blockchain ready to take center stage," Goldman Sachs said in a note in December, adding that the technology could "change everything."

Goldman Sachs noted a number of industries and uses that the blockchain could be applied to including voting systems, vehicle registrations, wire fees, gun checks, trade settlements and cataloguing ownership of art works.

"By removing the need for a middle man, one lowers potential security concerns from hacking to corruption as well as speeding up manual processes that are antiquated and can take too long," the investment bank said.


JPMorgan

JPMorgan has spent about $9 billion this year on technology investments across the company and a big focus has been on the blockchain.

In a note to employees, which was given to CNBC, Daniel Pinto, the head of JPMorgan's corporate and investment bank, said the financial giant has established teams to look into the blockchain among other technology such as robotics.

JD was quoted last week saying "The blockchain is a technology which we’ve been studying, and yes it’s real, it can probably reduce the cost of doing business. If it proves to be cheap and secure, it would be adopted for a whole bunch of stuff."


Barclays

Barclays said in May that bitcoin created a more "elegant solution than our current payment system" in many ways but it also "fell short" in a number of areas. The British bank said that it envisages a number of other cryptocurrencies will continue to emerge that won't have the flaws of first generation bitcoin, it said in the note.

So it's not predicting the end of cryptocurrencies but sees a place for them in the future of blockchain.

The first big area cryptocurrencies could work well in is bank transfers and remittances, according to Barclays, as it could make it cheaper and even "reduce the capital requirements of banks, as it would reduce considerably the counterparty risks."


Blockchain: What the big banks say about the tech

"Free markets work because they allow people to be lucky, thanks to aggressive trial and error, not by giving rewards or incentives for skill. The strategy is, then, to tinker as much as possible and try to collect as many Black Swan opportunities as you can"
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Neo1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #34 (permalink)
 rleplae 
Gits (Hooglede) Belgium
 
Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader, Proprietary,
Broker: Ninjabrokerage/IQfeed + Synthetic datafeed
Trading: 6A, 6B, 6C, 6E, 6J, 6S, ES, NQ, YM, AEX, CL, NG, ZB, ZN, ZC, ZS, GC
 
rleplae's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,991 since Sep 2013
Thanks: 2,437 given, 5,802 received

It is often like that, the first comer sets the scene, dies and other more mature players come and dominate the world...

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #35 (permalink)
 xplorer 
Site Moderator
London UK
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: CQG
Broker: S5
Trading: Futures
 
xplorer's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,391 since Sep 2015
Thanks: 13,605 given, 13,118 received

For who may be interested, Christine Lagarde tweeted yesterday:



Quoting 
Joining @gilliantett in 30 mins to discuss virtual currencies: both potential benefits and risks at #wef

The Transformation of Finance - World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2016 | World Economic Forum


Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to xplorer for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #36 (permalink)
Pedro40
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
 
 
Posts: 563 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 33 given, 377 received


Neo1 View Post
Maybe you'll be signing up soon then...
What the "Big Banks" have said about Bitcoin

Goldman Sachs

Goldman never mentioned "virtual currency". But I agree with them, one important usage for the blockchain would be online voting. For example each voter could be issued 1 coin and on the block chain it could be checked if the person voted or not.
The others also never mentioned the word decentralized. So yes, the blockchain can be used for lots of other things, but it doesn't need to be completely decentralized.

The way how I (and probably them) imagine it to work is that the issuer would keep the majority of the mining, thus they would be in control of developments and wouldn't let anyone else to take over their network.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #37 (permalink)
Pedro40
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
 
 
Posts: 563 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 33 given, 377 received

...and here we go, just like I said a few days ago, some retailer is going to make their own virtual currency. That retailer is bigger than Walmart or Amazon, it is CHINA!!!!:

Move Over, Bitcoin: China Wants to Issue Its Own Digital Currency | The Diplomat

"China’s central bank plans to issue its own digital currency “as soon as possible,” according to Xinhua. The People’s Bank of China made the announcement at a conference on digital currency in Beijing.

According to Xinhua, in 2014 the PBOC set up a team to examine the possibility of establishing a digital currency and particularly to study experiences in China and abroad. "

-------------------------------

I am not 100% this was the cause of it, but BTC dropped from 420 to 390 overnight...

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Pedro40 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #38 (permalink)
 SMCJB 
Legendary Market Wizard
Houston, TX
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Trading Technologies
Broker: Primary Advantage Futures. Also ED&F and Tradestation
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little GE, GC, SI & Bitcoin
 
Posts: 4,101 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 3,407 given, 8,127 received


Neo1 View Post
Maybe you'll be signing up soon then...

What the "Big Banks" have said about Bitcoin

2.5 of your 3 quotes are about the Blockchain not Bitcoin.
I think there is a huge divide in the future of each.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #39 (permalink)
 TheTradeSlinger 
Huntington WV
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: ES, CL
 
TheTradeSlinger's Avatar
 
Posts: 430 since Jun 2015
Thanks: 714 given, 589 received


Neo1 View Post
lol

Care to elaborate?

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #40 (permalink)
 SMCJB 
Legendary Market Wizard
Houston, TX
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Trading Technologies
Broker: Primary Advantage Futures. Also ED&F and Tradestation
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little GE, GC, SI & Bitcoin
 
Posts: 4,101 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 3,407 given, 8,127 received

NYTimes :- Funds Roll In for Start-Up Harnessing Bitcoin Tech

Bitcoin Tech = Blockchain & not Bitcoin itself
A well-known former JPMorgan Chase executive, Blythe Masters, has raised $52 million from several big banks for a start-up built on the technology underlying the Bitcoin virtual currency.

The start-up Digital Asset Holdings, based in New York, said on Thursday afternoon that it had raised the money from 13 financial institutions, including Ms. Masters’s former employer, JPMorgan, as well as Citi, BNP Paribas and Santander.
more...
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/22/business/funds-roll-in-for-start-up-harnessing-bitcoin-tech.html

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #41 (permalink)
 Neo1 
Christchurch, New Zealand
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC
Broker: IB, BC, Dx Feed
Trading: US Equities
 
Neo1's Avatar
 
Posts: 428 since Jul 2014
Thanks: 471 given, 501 received


SMCJB View Post
2.5 of your 3 quotes are about the Blockchain not Bitcoin.
I think there is a huge divide in the future of each.

Yeah sorry I should of just used the word Blockchain not Bitcoin. I wasn't trying to intentionally fool anyone. My post was aimed at Pedros comment re Blockchain never being able to handle transactions like Visa.

I think it's interesting that Big US banks +the IMF seem bullish on Blockchain. Bitcoin is becoming a conflict of interest.

"Free markets work because they allow people to be lucky, thanks to aggressive trial and error, not by giving rewards or incentives for skill. The strategy is, then, to tinker as much as possible and try to collect as many Black Swan opportunities as you can"
Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #42 (permalink)
 Neo1 
Christchurch, New Zealand
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC
Broker: IB, BC, Dx Feed
Trading: US Equities
 
Neo1's Avatar
 
Posts: 428 since Jul 2014
Thanks: 471 given, 501 received


TheTradeSlinger View Post
Care to elaborate?

Sure,

I was just laughing at your perception of Bitcoin & "virtual currency"

Each to their own.

"Free markets work because they allow people to be lucky, thanks to aggressive trial and error, not by giving rewards or incentives for skill. The strategy is, then, to tinker as much as possible and try to collect as many Black Swan opportunities as you can"
Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #43 (permalink)
 Cloudy 
desert CA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7, SC, ToS
Broker: AMP, DT, TDA
Trading: CL,NQ,YM
 
Posts: 2,135 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 2,388 given, 1,727 received

I tried a bit of bitcoin. The biggest cost was actually getting some through an exchange where the fees were horrendous. But no problem when I used my bitcoin "wallet" to send to someone who required bitcoin in a transaction. Interestingly it went up about 10% a day after I exchanged for a sum in milli-bitcoin. So I made a little profit

I have no idea bout the ramifications or how it would fare as a legit currency in the future. I do like the idea of it being limited in existence so that there is no Fed or ECB to inflate it.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #44 (permalink)
 SMCJB 
Legendary Market Wizard
Houston, TX
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Trading Technologies
Broker: Primary Advantage Futures. Also ED&F and Tradestation
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little GE, GC, SI & Bitcoin
 
Posts: 4,101 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 3,407 given, 8,127 received


Cloudy View Post
I do like the idea of it being limited in existence so that there is no Fed or ECB to inflate it.

The flip side of that argument is that the limited supply gives it Ponzi scheme similarities. It's value becomes linked to its popularity which I wonder whether that is sustainable.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #45 (permalink)
Pedro40
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
 
 
Posts: 563 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 33 given, 377 received


SMCJB View Post
The flip side of that argument is that the limited supply gives it Ponzi scheme similarities. It's value becomes linked to its popularity which I wonder whether that is sustainable.

Right, and beside that, it is only limited if we think of let's say Corona beer in limited supply. There are other beers that do the same job just fine or even better, so the limited supply doesn't really hold up when it goes to crypto currencies.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Pedro40 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #46 (permalink)
 SMCJB 
Legendary Market Wizard
Houston, TX
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Trading Technologies
Broker: Primary Advantage Futures. Also ED&F and Tradestation
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little GE, GC, SI & Bitcoin
 
Posts: 4,101 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 3,407 given, 8,127 received

Interesting perspective, I hadn't thought of that. Supply could potentially be increased by additional cryptocurrencies rather than by additional bitcoins. Interesting. Not sure thats the way the Bitcoin faithful see it going though.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #47 (permalink)
Pedro40
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
 
 
Posts: 563 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 33 given, 377 received


SMCJB View Post
Not sure thats the way the Bitcoin faithful see it going though.

Of course not, when you sign up for one Ponzi, you don't want competing Ponzis to suck away possible incoming capital.

Right now there are at least 3 technologically more advanced cryptos (Monero, Dash, Ethereum) that addressing issues what have been holding bitcoin back. That inflexibility of dealing with problems only affects established cryptos.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Pedro40 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #48 (permalink)
 Pharmakon 
Paris France
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: TradingView
Broker: CQG
Trading: ES1!, CL1!, DY1!
 
Pharmakon's Avatar
 
Posts: 45 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 119 given, 27 received

Hi !

It seems that there wasn't any post on Bitcoin-like community since more than 2 weeks ago now.
I've got the news about a nice commentary post of : Fabian Vogelsteller - Hard worker of Ethereum Community.
It comes from GateCoin : https://gatecoin.com/blog/2016/01/from-bitcoin-to-blockchain/


Quoting 
Fabian Vogelsteller • 3 months ago

I personally disagree with the negative perspective on R3 and others.

I think there will be all facets of blockchain, from fully public, to consortium chains, to special purpose chains to private chains with only one "miner".

They all have their purpose and will fulfil a specific use case. Using smart contract enabled blockchains like Ethereum, will make them all connectable and what we get is a internet of blockchains.

In the midterm it will lead to a mass of (probably EVM based) blockchains, working aside and with each other, in the very long term i see strong public chain(s) forming. Once the scalibity is addressed, they will be more and more used, over internal private chains.

Its just the way to go.

Where does bitcoin fit in all of this? I guess it will be valuable for a very long time and will probably be used as the gold of the internet. I don't see projects like rootstock moving bitcoin beyond what Ethereum already is.

In add, last week French Government opened a legal path to experiment blockchains for French PME Financing.
Source : Le gouvernement ouvre la voie à la blockchain ? Blockchain France


Cheers,
P.

Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Pharmakon for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #49 (permalink)
 SMCJB 
Legendary Market Wizard
Houston, TX
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Trading Technologies
Broker: Primary Advantage Futures. Also ED&F and Tradestation
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little GE, GC, SI & Bitcoin
 
Posts: 4,101 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 3,407 given, 8,127 received

This NYTimes article from the weekend discusses a lot of what @Pharmakon quoted including companies using Blockchain for purely internal projects.

NYTimes :- Ethereum, a Virtual Currency, Enables Transactions That Rival Bitcoin’s

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/28/business/dealbook/ethereum-a-virtual-currency-enables-transactions-that-rival-bitcoins.html

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #50 (permalink)
Pedro40
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
 
 
Posts: 563 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 33 given, 377 received

I welcome newer and more advanced virtual currencies for a couple of reasons:

1. It shows that bitcoin isn't unique or in any way valuable itself or limited in supply. By this last one I mean if you can find another unlimited mineral that can replace gold just fine for all purposes, than gold isn't limited, practically speaking.

2. Because of decentralization it is hard to achieve consensus about developments, so it is just easier to start a new altcoin with the better features. Another weakness of bitcoin.


That being said, the above criticism is also valid for ANY altcoins. And generally the idea of making my own money is still silly, unless you are a big organization or retailer...

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Pedro40 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #51 (permalink)
 SMCJB 
Legendary Market Wizard
Houston, TX
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Trading Technologies
Broker: Primary Advantage Futures. Also ED&F and Tradestation
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little GE, GC, SI & Bitcoin
 
Posts: 4,101 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 3,407 given, 8,127 received

many of the things discussed in that NYTimes article involve the blockchain being used for non-coin/money uses.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #52 (permalink)
Pedro40
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
 
 
Posts: 563 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 33 given, 377 received


SMCJB View Post
many of the things discussed in that NYTimes article involve the blockchain being used for non-coin/money uses.

Blockchain will stay, decentralized virtual currencies will fade away. Centralized virtual currency will flourish...

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Pedro40 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #53 (permalink)
 Pharmakon 
Paris France
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: TradingView
Broker: CQG
Trading: ES1!, CL1!, DY1!
 
Pharmakon's Avatar
 
Posts: 45 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 119 given, 27 received


Pedro40 View Post
Blockchain will stay, decentralized virtual currencies will fade away. Centralized virtual currency will flourish...

So does we should sell bitcoin and ethereum and buy bank shares expecting higher yield with BC ?

Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #54 (permalink)
Pedro40
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
 
 
Posts: 563 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 33 given, 377 received


Pharmakon View Post
So does we should sell bitcoin and ethereum and buy bank shares expecting higher yield with BC ?

Just trade it, it is volatile enough. But don't hold it for months or years. Basicly any run up can be shorted, and big drops be bought until some big revealing truth hits the market, like another huge scandal or Satoshi coming forward...

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #55 (permalink)
 SMCJB 
Legendary Market Wizard
Houston, TX
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Trading Technologies
Broker: Primary Advantage Futures. Also ED&F and Tradestation
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little GE, GC, SI & Bitcoin
 
Posts: 4,101 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 3,407 given, 8,127 received

Not Bitcoin related but “distributed ledger” related.

NYT :- Ripple Aims to Put Every Transaction on One Ledger

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/07/business/dealbook/ripple-aims-to-put-every-transaction-on-one-ledger.html

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #56 (permalink)
 rleplae 
Gits (Hooglede) Belgium
 
Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader, Proprietary,
Broker: Ninjabrokerage/IQfeed + Synthetic datafeed
Trading: 6A, 6B, 6C, 6E, 6J, 6S, ES, NQ, YM, AEX, CL, NG, ZB, ZN, ZC, ZS, GC
 
rleplae's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,991 since Sep 2013
Thanks: 2,437 given, 5,802 received

This could mean trouble ahead...

Bitcoin Wallets Under Siege From Large Collider Attack | Fortune.com

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to rleplae for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #57 (permalink)
 Pharmakon 
Paris France
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: TradingView
Broker: CQG
Trading: ES1!, CL1!, DY1!
 
Pharmakon's Avatar
 
Posts: 45 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 119 given, 27 received

Possible bullish signal but wait for China Trading Exchange recover to buy

The SEC agrees to review COIN etf disaproval pdf source :

https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/batsbzx/2017/34-80511.pdf

Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #58 (permalink)
Three1seventy
Chicago USA
 
 
Posts: 15 since Jun 2011
Thanks: 2 given, 7 received

For those that dont think its a viable currency im here to tell you that i use it. example Launched my sailboat for the season last week and needed a new tv because my son dropped the old one on the way unloading from van...not the end of the world..it was on the way out and needed to be replaced anyway. What to do. it was not an expense i was planning on. so a trip to walmart was underway. i found a 19 inch element tv for $100...i didnt have any cash left after paying fees to launch boat and tipping guys at harbor...so viola pulled out my phone went to my coinbase account where i have my bitcoins...logged into my bitpay visa account moved the required amount from coinbase bitcoin to bitpay visa ...went to checkout same as cash and was able to crack open a beer and finish the cubs game while the seagulls squawked overhead while rocking gently in harbor. its for real folks just my 2 cents

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Three1seventy for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #59 (permalink)
 SMCJB 
Legendary Market Wizard
Houston, TX
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Trading Technologies
Broker: Primary Advantage Futures. Also ED&F and Tradestation
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little GE, GC, SI & Bitcoin
 
Posts: 4,101 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 3,407 given, 8,127 received

Not sure "use" is the same as "viabile", interesting story though.
For now it's way to volatile to be viable in my opinion.
When you transfer like that what exchange rate do you get?

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #60 (permalink)
 CenFlo 
Tampa FL
 
Experience: None
Platform: Sierra Charts/TOS
Broker: Future Path/TDA
Trading: Futures/Cryptos
 
CenFlo's Avatar
 
Posts: 639 since Apr 2016
Thanks: 830 given, 959 received

IMO, it's a viable asset class at this point and been for some time now.

It has survived the rip to drop of Mt. Gox and will continued to be a way for monetary investment and $$ movement.

I'm very glad that I've scaled in/out several times and have a core holding of BTC and will continued to do so. I've done well with BTC and only wish I would have seen the writing on the wall a few years earlier.

It's moved beyond speculation and the coins I loaded up on 2 years ago when the price tanked are resting nicely in my account.

The above is my outlook and opinion, to each their own and all that.

You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. - Wayne Gretsky
Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #61 (permalink)
johny
Melbourne, Australia
 
 
Posts: 20 since Jun 2010
Thanks: 0 given, 5 received

I have always had a curiosity for bitcoin from a technological point of view but don't see it being used for anything but black market trading.

Does anyone know why the price of bitcoin is currently skyrocketing? It has surpassed $1700.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #62 (permalink)
 suko 
Market Wizard
Kyoto, Japan
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TW TOS LiveVol
Broker: TD, TW, IB, Saxo
Trading: VXX, VIX, SPY
 
suko's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,323 since Oct 2013
Thanks: 837 given, 1,411 received

Nobody knows anything.

But it is claimed that 95% of the bid comes from China, so...

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #63 (permalink)
Pedro40
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
 
 
Posts: 563 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 33 given, 377 received

Litecoin went up from $5 to $36 in the last 6 weeks way outperforming BTC due to the Segwit implementation...

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #64 (permalink)
 SMCJB 
Legendary Market Wizard
Houston, TX
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Trading Technologies
Broker: Primary Advantage Futures. Also ED&F and Tradestation
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little GE, GC, SI & Bitcoin
 
Posts: 4,101 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 3,407 given, 8,127 received

But how can it be a viable currency when it moves 100% in a week?

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #65 (permalink)
johny
Melbourne, Australia
 
 
Posts: 20 since Jun 2010
Thanks: 0 given, 5 received

Either china is buying up huge amounts of crypto currency or the bitcoin market is not very liquid to move such huge amounts..

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #66 (permalink)
 Neo1 
Christchurch, New Zealand
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC
Broker: IB, BC, Dx Feed
Trading: US Equities
 
Neo1's Avatar
 
Posts: 428 since Jul 2014
Thanks: 471 given, 501 received

I wouldn't be surprised to see BTC exceed 10k

"Free markets work because they allow people to be lucky, thanks to aggressive trial and error, not by giving rewards or incentives for skill. The strategy is, then, to tinker as much as possible and try to collect as many Black Swan opportunities as you can"
Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #67 (permalink)
 suko 
Market Wizard
Kyoto, Japan
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TW TOS LiveVol
Broker: TD, TW, IB, Saxo
Trading: VXX, VIX, SPY
 
suko's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,323 since Oct 2013
Thanks: 837 given, 1,411 received

Some believe it will go to 1 million.

I say it will go up and down with a lot of volatility that makes it unsuitable for a currency for quite some time.

The altcoins even worse. If you like trading pump and dumps that is the market.

New better altcoins will continue to be created, just like designer drugs.

Might be an interesting speculation to just buy some 1000s of every new altcoin as it emerges on the board. One out of twenty or so of those will go supernova like ETH.

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #68 (permalink)
 SMCJB 
Legendary Market Wizard
Houston, TX
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Trading Technologies
Broker: Primary Advantage Futures. Also ED&F and Tradestation
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little GE, GC, SI & Bitcoin
 
Posts: 4,101 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 3,407 given, 8,127 received


Neo1 View Post
I wouldn't be surprised to see BTC exceed 10k


suko View Post
Some believe it will go to 1 million.

Doesn't that make it a Ponzi scheme rather than a viable currency? Anybody out there predicting USDEUR will go to 2 never mind 10?

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #69 (permalink)
 tpredictor 
North Carolina
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, Tradestation
Trading: es
 
Posts: 644 since Nov 2011

BTC (and other forms of payment like credit cards) are known to benefit by what is called the network effect. This is the idea that once a certain competitor gains enough market share that they have a monopoly. A similar model is the marketplace model, firms like ebay/amazon/etc attempt to become the market place, once they have established themselves as the de facto market place then the volume attracts more volume so to speak so no one can compete with them. If you were to try to innovate, they could copy your innovation faster than it could reach adoption. And, that might be one problem for bitcoin in that it seems to be somewhat static-- if its not adaptable then having market place status might not give it monopoly advantage.

No BTC is not a ponzi scheme because there is no promised or even implied rate of return. A Ponzi scheme is a scheme that guarantees or promises an unrealistic rate of return and uses new investor money to pay prior debts. However, BTC could be in a speculative bubble and is host to a subject of wide ranging and array of poorly understood risks. BTC is not a currency either because currencies are backed by governments. BTC is best thought of as a digital asset, good, or service. Long term valuation will be a function of how useful it is, how much it is perceived to be worth (speculators), and competitive responses. The biggest threat too BTC is the question of adaptability and rigidity. Those betting on BTC are betting that it will obtain synergistic network benefits and monopoly status but the risk is that it can't be respond to market changes because of possible rigid implementation and decentralization.

One way to track the fair value of bitcoin would be to create a metric that ranks the adoption growth for actual purchases/goods versus its increase in value. By plotting the adoption rate versus growth in value rate, you can create some measure of whether or not bitcoin appreciation is warranted. A simpler measure would be to track the trading volume in relation to the asset appreciation. If BTC is appreciating much faster than volume is increasing then that would suggest that it is being hoarded and might suggest overvaluation. Another very useful measure would be the amount that is being exchanged out vs in. These measures could be used to forecast future price.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #70 (permalink)
 suko 
Market Wizard
Kyoto, Japan
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TW TOS LiveVol
Broker: TD, TW, IB, Saxo
Trading: VXX, VIX, SPY
 
suko's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,323 since Oct 2013
Thanks: 837 given, 1,411 received


SMCJB View Post
Doesn't that make it a Ponzi scheme rather than a viable currency? Anybody out there predicting USDEUR will go to 2 never mind 10?

I use BTC all the time for international money transfers and it works great for that. However, you must get in and out as fast as possible due to volatility.

Vast numbers of poor migrant workers abroad are now using it instead of Western Union for transfer payments.

I think it may also be in use in the appification of money in India going on right now.

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #71 (permalink)
Pedro40
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
 
 
Posts: 563 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 33 given, 377 received


SMCJB View Post
But how can it be a viable currency when it moves 100% in a week?

Viability and volatility are not mutually exclusive but yes, it is not too practical when the currency is that volatile. When a currency is wildly appreciating it encourages hoarding....

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #72 (permalink)
 SMCJB 
Legendary Market Wizard
Houston, TX
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Trading Technologies
Broker: Primary Advantage Futures. Also ED&F and Tradestation
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little GE, GC, SI & Bitcoin
 
Posts: 4,101 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 3,407 given, 8,127 received


suko View Post
Vast numbers of poor migrant workers abroad are now using it instead of Western Union for transfer payments.

How does that work? How do they convert their local cash into Bitcoin? How do their poor relatives they send them to convert them back? It's not like you can walk into your local Bank/Post Office/Library and do it. And even if you could don't all the fees add up to be more than what you would pay to just send the cash? And we havent even factored in that the value may shift 10% up or down in the few days it takes to send and retrieve.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #73 (permalink)
 suko 
Market Wizard
Kyoto, Japan
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TW TOS LiveVol
Broker: TD, TW, IB, Saxo
Trading: VXX, VIX, SPY
 
suko's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,323 since Oct 2013
Thanks: 837 given, 1,411 received

My local bitcoin exchange runs banner ads in Tagalog, targeting Filippina pink collar workers. I was shocked when I first saw that, because I suppose the Filippinas were not that sophisticated. What do I know?

They are getting paid by their employers electronically in yen. So they transfer yen from their bank to the bitcoin exchange, then buy some bitcoin, then send it to their family members back home. Who have to do the process in reverse, I suppose this all happens by smartphone.

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to suko for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #74 (permalink)
 Neo1 
Christchurch, New Zealand
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC
Broker: IB, BC, Dx Feed
Trading: US Equities
 
Neo1's Avatar
 
Posts: 428 since Jul 2014
Thanks: 471 given, 501 received


suko View Post
My local bitcoin exchange runs banner ads in Tagalog, targeting Filippina pink collar workers. I was shocked when I first saw that, because I suppose the Filippinas were not that sophisticated. What do I know?

They are getting paid by their employers electronically in yen. So they transfer yen from their bank to the bitcoin exchange, then buy some bitcoin, then send it to their family members back home. Who have to do the process in reverse, I suppose this all happens by smartphone.

You could sell coins in your native currency via a local exchange eg localbitcoins.com( They sell for a premium over exchange prices), so it's possible to scalp a profit in the transaction, or atleast breakeven. There is still arbitrage opportunities available in BTC.

Eg Deposit Yen to a local Chinese BTC exchange. Sell marked up bitcoins in PHP via cash/ personal bank transfer on a local Filipino exchange. Make sure your selling price is more than what you can currently buy them for on the Chinese exchange. Buy BTC at exchange prices in YEN, and then send to the BTC address of the customer who purchased your BTC on the local exchange in PHP.

*Vendors on localbitcoins.com always charge a markup vs the exchange price. They can offer anonymous cash deposit ATM options or direct bank transfer, and are one of the most private ways to purchase coins. So there is always a market for them, especially for customers who only want a small amount of BTC for a one purchase.

"Free markets work because they allow people to be lucky, thanks to aggressive trial and error, not by giving rewards or incentives for skill. The strategy is, then, to tinker as much as possible and try to collect as many Black Swan opportunities as you can"
Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #75 (permalink)
 SMCJB 
Legendary Market Wizard
Houston, TX
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Trading Technologies
Broker: Primary Advantage Futures. Also ED&F and Tradestation
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little GE, GC, SI & Bitcoin
 
Posts: 4,101 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 3,407 given, 8,127 received


suko View Post
They are getting paid by their employers electronically in yen. So they transfer yen from their bank to the bitcoin exchange {FEE}, then buy some bitcoin {FEE}, then send it to their family members back home. Who have to do the process in reverse{FEE} x2, I suppose this all happens by smartphone.

I thought one of the big advantages was to avoid bank and transfer fees, but now instead your paying different fees.

For example Coinbase's Fees for a US Customer are
0.5% to Buy
0.5% to Sell
U.S. Bank Account 1.49%, with a $0.15 minimum
Coinbase USD Wallet 1.49%
Credit/Debit Card 3.99%

So to use coinbase to transfer bitcoins it's going to cost you a minimum of 1.99% and potentially the person you are transferring to them same again.

Kind of makes Bank Fees look cheap!

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #76 (permalink)
 Neo1 
Christchurch, New Zealand
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC
Broker: IB, BC, Dx Feed
Trading: US Equities
 
Neo1's Avatar
 
Posts: 428 since Jul 2014
Thanks: 471 given, 501 received


SMCJB View Post
I thought one of the big advantages was to avoid bank and transfer fees, but now instead your paying different fees.

For example Coinbase's Fees for a US Customer are
0.5% to Buy
0.5% to Sell
U.S. Bank Account 1.49%, with a $0.15 minimum
Coinbase USD Wallet 1.49%
Credit/Debit Card 3.99%

So to use coinbase to transfer bitcoins it's going to cost you a minimum of 1.99% and potentially the person you are transferring to them same again.

Kind of makes Bank Fees look cheap!

I'm not sure about US bank fees, however, in New Zealand & Australia a typical bank would charge a minimum of $15-20 for any international money transfer, plus they will scalp you on the conversion rate. If you are only sending a small amount, eg $100, then it's like a 15-20% fee. I imagine Chinese workers sending money to the Philippians, would only be sending small amounts each week.

-Coinbase suck
-There are Chinese BTC exchanges that won't charge fees on deposits from Chinese bank accounts.
-I'm talking about sending coins from one wallet to another and then selling in the local currency you are trying to acquire.Vendors on localbitcoins.com scalp transitions doing this.

"Free markets work because they allow people to be lucky, thanks to aggressive trial and error, not by giving rewards or incentives for skill. The strategy is, then, to tinker as much as possible and try to collect as many Black Swan opportunities as you can"
Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #77 (permalink)
 SMCJB 
Legendary Market Wizard
Houston, TX
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Trading Technologies
Broker: Primary Advantage Futures. Also ED&F and Tradestation
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little GE, GC, SI & Bitcoin
 
Posts: 4,101 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 3,407 given, 8,127 received

Excellent points @Neo1. I was thinking of larger sums. If we say coinbase is 2.5% and wire fees are $25 then coinbase is cheaper than wires for anything under $1000 which is probably a lot of the people you were talking about.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #78 (permalink)
 Neo1 
Christchurch, New Zealand
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC
Broker: IB, BC, Dx Feed
Trading: US Equities
 
Neo1's Avatar
 
Posts: 428 since Jul 2014
Thanks: 471 given, 501 received

Nocookies | The Australian

"The funnelling of the yuan through bitcoin comes as the Chinese government and its regulators have in recent months moved to restrict the outflow of capital from their communist coffers over concerns it could destabilise the currency and economy.
To protect against these risks the Chinese government has imposed tighter restrictions on individual citizens, allowing them to move only $50,000 abroad each year.
The Chinese government has also limited other channels for moving money abroad, including purchasing insurance or real *estate.
Global restrictions on sovereign currencies are playing a major role in driving increased bitcoin demand according to Sam Lee, chief executive of Blockchain Global and developer of Australia’s largest bitcoin exchange.
"

Old article( Jan 17), but it explains why the Chinese are using BTC to transfer money overseas. It's not even to do with BTC transfers being cheaper than banks, it's that the Chinese government has started imposing strict capital controls on the RMB( YUAN). The majority of BTC volumes comes from China, so it's also a good explanation for BTC's current run.

"Free markets work because they allow people to be lucky, thanks to aggressive trial and error, not by giving rewards or incentives for skill. The strategy is, then, to tinker as much as possible and try to collect as many Black Swan opportunities as you can"
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Neo1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #79 (permalink)
 vantojo 
Neuquen, Argentina
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja
Trading: CL, TF, 6S, NG, sometimes GC
 
Posts: 200 since Jul 2012
Thanks: 25 given, 42 received

Hello,

BITMEX looks VERY interesting for day trade / scalp.

It has several types of Futures Contracts for the leading crypto currencies. Liquidity and volume appear to be growing fast, as well as, it appears, institutional traders are just starting to pay attention (my observation).

https://www.bitmex.com:443/ for live trading

testnet.bitmex.com for simulated trading (reduced feed)

The Bitmex web trading interface is not good for day trading, BUT Sierra Charts does have a BITMEX interface, and from first testing it looks solid.

I sure wish NinjaTrader had an interface because that is where all my indicators and autotrading are, and I for sure don't want to port the huge amount of code to a new platform.

If anyone has experience with Bitmex live trading, perhaps you can share your experience on fills, slippage, ease of fund transfers, stability of the back end, et cetera.

Also, I understand that CME is in the process of setting up Bitcoin Futures, and if so, the feed may be available through the normal Futures brokers. But, no time date yet.

Meanwhile Bitmex is now, and live, and appears to be run by professionals.

Comments?

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to vantojo for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #80 (permalink)
 suko 
Market Wizard
Kyoto, Japan
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TW TOS LiveVol
Broker: TD, TW, IB, Saxo
Trading: VXX, VIX, SPY
 
suko's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,323 since Oct 2013
Thanks: 837 given, 1,411 received

True believer Raoul Pal has had a change of mind about Bitcoin:




Very interesting what he has to say about cryptocurrency in India.

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to suko for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #81 (permalink)
 mattz   is a Vendor
 
 
mattz's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,489 since Sep 2010
Thanks: 2,429 given, 3,767 received


suko View Post
True believer Raoul Pal has had a change of mind about Bitcoin:

......


Very interesting what he has to say about cryptocurrency in India.

Nice video, however, keep in mind a few things:

1) Exponential price moves do not always need to correct. Look at the price of diamonds.
2) Blockchains are in public domain already and it will not 5 years to make it to main st.
3) Pitchforks are meant for better scalability and avoid theft. It is not meant to break the algorithmic structure.

Matt Z
Optimus Futures

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You may lose more than your initial investment. All posts are opinions and do not claim to be facts. Please conduct your own due diligence. Use only Risk capital when trading Futures.
1 800 771 6748 local 561 367 8686 email support@OptimusFutures.com
Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #82 (permalink)
 SMCJB 
Legendary Market Wizard
Houston, TX
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Trading Technologies
Broker: Primary Advantage Futures. Also ED&F and Tradestation
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little GE, GC, SI & Bitcoin
 
Posts: 4,101 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 3,407 given, 8,127 received


suko View Post
True believer Raoul Pal has had a change of mind about Bitcoin:




Very interesting what he has to say about cryptocurrency in India.

Yes very interesting. Thanks @suko.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #83 (permalink)
 suko 
Market Wizard
Kyoto, Japan
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TW TOS LiveVol
Broker: TD, TW, IB, Saxo
Trading: VXX, VIX, SPY
 
suko's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,323 since Oct 2013
Thanks: 837 given, 1,411 received

Actually, I don't know where Raoul Pal is getting his info about India.

I had heard that there are some apps being used with cryptos for payments, true.

But if you look at the headlines for India it seems there is a lot of confusion at the regulatory level still.

It's not a situation like Japan where they've got approval from the top and clear legislation.

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #84 (permalink)
 WOW CO 
Toronto, Canada
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Ninjatrader
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 76 since Oct 2011
Thanks: 1,712 given, 125 received


suko View Post
Actually, I don't know where Raoul Pal is getting his info about India.

I had heard that there are some apps being used with cryptos for payments, true.

But if you look at the headlines for India it seems there is a lot of confusion at the regulatory level still.

It's not a situation like Japan where they've got approval from the top and clear legislation.

Here is Raoul Pal talking about India - scroll half way down the page.

Raoul Pal, Paying Attention | Outside the Box Investment Newsletter | Mauldin Economics


India

By Raoul Pal
March 2017

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to WOW CO for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #85 (permalink)
 suko 
Market Wizard
Kyoto, Japan
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TW TOS LiveVol
Broker: TD, TW, IB, Saxo
Trading: VXX, VIX, SPY
 
suko's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,323 since Oct 2013
Thanks: 837 given, 1,411 received

Holy smokes! Thanks for drilling down and finding that.

a MUST READ

To contradict what I said about Japan. You'd think the Japanese would have been able to roll something out vast and sweeping like this. But petty local politics etc. has bogged down even rolling out of a simple citizen ID number.

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #86 (permalink)
 suko 
Market Wizard
Kyoto, Japan
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TW TOS LiveVol
Broker: TD, TW, IB, Saxo
Trading: VXX, VIX, SPY
 
suko's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,323 since Oct 2013
Thanks: 837 given, 1,411 received

Listening to that interview again, it reminds me of what Brad Rotter said three years ago on the Covel podcast, that yes Bitcoin may go to a million dollars but the real play is picks n' shovels.

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #87 (permalink)
 SMCJB 
Legendary Market Wizard
Houston, TX
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Trading Technologies
Broker: Primary Advantage Futures. Also ED&F and Tradestation
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little GE, GC, SI & Bitcoin
 
Posts: 4,101 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 3,407 given, 8,127 received

Thanks @WOW CO
Excellent Read.

For anybody with Real Vision subscription they have a new interesting 30 min bitcoin video today.
Monday: Of Bitcoin And Bubbles
Tuur Demeester // Editor-in-Chief // Adamant Research
In five years, are you going to be thanking yourself for buying Bitcoin, or kicking yourself? Tuur Demeester examines how far cryptocurrencies have come in the past eight years, questioning whether we are in a bubble or state of viral adoption in the sector, while also providing some essential analysis on the current scaling debate in Bitcoin. Click to watch now.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #88 (permalink)
 tpredictor 
North Carolina
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, Tradestation
Trading: es
 
Posts: 644 since Nov 2011

What's ironic is that Bitcoin was created to try to prevent control but like most technologies, it probably has led to a hastening of digital currencies with greater control and less anonymity.

I think a few things are clear now in my mind:

1. The technology of digital currencies and other innovations, such as programmed contracts (I imagine engineering optimal trading markets/products for traders-- see my other thread). This is going to get rid of a lot of middle man and it's going to provide safety to the financial system because it's going to decrease the role for banks to play in financial markets. Why should there be a central authority charging a fee for every trade when we have fast and cheap computing resources today and when no money actually needs to be exchanged even for a trade? Also, it is time to get real: small traders aren't out there providing tangible liquidity. We're not facilitating markets. For a trader, the markets serve one purpose: prove your relative advantage over other traders and take home a profit. There's no need or reason to take black swan risk. No need for trading frictions either. In fact, there is no need to trade real markets at all. Yes, perhaps for large traders but small traders (sub 1 million) probably not. An engineered market can provide a better trading experience and even if one wants to trade actual markets, one can imagine idealized trading products with zero frictions and limited risk.

Also, there is a need for friction-less micro-payments. The change is basically a process of automation and elimination of middle-men, as well as traditional frictions.

2. Bitcoin paved the way but has basically failed. I was reading over 50% of accounts have tiny amounts of bitcoin that can't even be collated. The mining is wasting tons of real resources. Micropayments are difficult to get processed. The network isn't scaling. By 2027 most of the coin will be mined meaning that the only way to obtain it will be to exchange it which negates a lot of value because once you limit it to traditional exchange then it becomes fully subject to regulation.

3. Bitcoin is not going away anytime soon and can go a lot higher still yet.

What I see happening is that over the next 10 years, we're going to see some of these advantages. You'll see programming contracts take over financial contracts. There will be a lot of problems. Bitcoin will continue to be volatile but will likely continue to rise. Eventually, there will be a big fall out. However, the technologies that come from this will pave the way for "finance 2.0".

Just hypothesizing here...
This change will lead to a shift away from big finance centers toward technology hubs. New York, Chicago, London-- the old guard will likely fall or become even more marginalized. Technology hubs like Silicon Valley, Seattle, Denver, etc. will benefit. The regulated exchanges will have to adapt or eventually in 20 years or so: they could go the same away as the open outcry pits. Also, it could be the trigger for the next financial crisis because it would represent a major shifting of capital.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #89 (permalink)
 choke35 
Germany
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Other
Trading: ES, YM, 6E
 
Posts: 2,668 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 5,100 given, 6,555 received

CME Group Announces Launch of Bitcoin Futures

Tue October 31, 2017 9:30 AM|PR Newswire
PR Newswire

CHICAGO, Oct. 31, 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- CME Group (CME), the world's leading and most diverse derivatives marketplace, today announced it intends to launch bitcoin futures in the fourth quarter of 2017, pending all relevant regulatory review periods.

The new contract will be cash-settled, based on the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate (BRR) which serves as a once-a-day reference rate of the U.S. dollar price of bitcoin. Bitcoin futures will be listed on and subject to the rules of CME.
...

More information:
CF Bitcoin Real Time Index and Spot Price

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #90 (permalink)
 tpredictor 
North Carolina
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, Tradestation
Trading: es
 
Posts: 644 since Nov 2011

I hope they make the multiplier small for small traders.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #91 (permalink)
 mattz   is a Vendor
 
 
mattz's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,489 since Sep 2010
Thanks: 2,429 given, 3,767 received

Why don't you guys start a new thread for this?
"Bitcoin Futures by the CME" This will give us all to provide updates as the CME evolves this product.


Thanks,
Matt Z
Optimus Futures

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You may lose more than your initial investment. All posts are opinions and do not claim to be facts. Please conduct your own due diligence. Use only Risk capital when trading Futures.
1 800 771 6748 local 561 367 8686 email support@OptimusFutures.com
Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to mattz for this post:


futures io Trading Community Traders Hideout Crypto Futures > A Bitcoin Believer’s Crisis of Faith


Last Updated on October 31, 2017


Upcoming Webinars and Events
 

NinjaTrader Indicator Challenge!

Ongoing

NEW BlackBird Features + FOREX Support w/Jeremy Tang @ SharkIndicators

Elite only
 

Our 12-year anniversary w/ $$,$$$ prizes (check soon)

June
     



Copyright © 2021 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada), info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts