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What is interesting to me is that you see with bitcoin the reason that a currency needs inflation.
Once everyone believes the value of the currency will be worth much more tomorrow than today it stops functioning as a currency because everyone just starts hording it and not using it as a medium of exchange.
Bitcoin as digital gold is just the new narrative the crypto community came up with when it failed as a currency because of hording.
Crypto at this point is just a bucket shop in the clouds.
In that sense I think a pure trading game divorced completely from reality is actually really cool.
A pure trading game might be something the world needs or at the least really wants.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
That's exactly what I believe happens, but I think we can go into a bit more detail than that. What really gives the asset value is your ability to transfer it to other people. The more people that use the currency, the more valuable it is to you because you can use it more places. If nobody is actually using it then the ultimate utility of the coin goes down.
The truth is that hodl is just a meme. When you look at the Mt Gox crash almost everyone got washed out of the market. I expect the same will happen this time around as well. As soon as people realize that the number of transactions in the near future will be less than the number of transactions today, there is no reason to hold the asset. So they all bail.
A fiat system has the Federal Reserve to modify the money supply to create inflation so that this doesn't happen. When things fall apart they make money easy to borrow to increase the amount of transactions. It creates a reason to buy before complete collapse. Bitcoin is essentially the opposite. Instead of becoming a safe haven it is a risk asset, and that makes the tops and bottoms exaggerated.
It is just not shocking at all you would have lower velocity when the price 10 bags.
For me personally I am interested in buying bitcoin under $300 but even that might be high. $200 is probably the point I actually start buying. I will be interested though as a deep OTM call option on the infrastructure.
I mean I was interested at $300 not that long ago and the only thing that has changed is less people are actually using it as a currency and there is a massive increase in supply. I need to get pennies on the dollar though to be interested. Young men have a collective urge to speculate and make their fortune quick. I think there was so much pent up speculative demand from young people mostly picking index funds post financial crisis that crypto still reflects this speculative premium. The dream is still alive.
I actually did buy some GLD last Christmas when bitcoin was the family dinner conversation. It seemed obvious to me when the shoe shine boy is talking about digital gold I should buy the real thing.
The least shocking thing in the world right now will be bitcoin volatility drying up until the next dump. I am impressed with the way people are able to hold and ride down this most orderly of liquidation.
Yra Harris says "...don’t buy into the inflation nonsense. By that time, gold is too late. Gold is a protection against central banks absolutely realizing that they’ve gone down a path that they have no way out of ..... That’s what you wanna go for. The inflation will be the ultimate ugly effect..."
A better title for this thread might be "Dollar vs Gold or Bitcoin". Today's dollar is the ultimate fiat currency. "Fiat" meaning it is not backed by anything real. The recent 2009 economic meltdown highlighted the fact that the government could simply print vast sums of dollars to bail out the economy. Many people think that we can also print money to fund government programs. This has created a new "Modern Monetary Theory" which simply proposes to forget about the hassle of paying back government loans rather just print money. It is a timely subject given the difficulty the Federal Reserve is having recovering QE outlays, and similarly the European Central Bank, and political climate in western democracy's. MMT may take hold as policy. Its implications are profound. Where is wealth best stored, dollars gold or bitcoin. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-01-10/u-s-economy-modern-monetary-theory-bets-deficits-don-t-matter
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Interesting you should mention this. I just watched THE GREAT DOLLAR DEBATE with Grant Williams (Matterhorn Asset Management, Vulpes Investment Management), Luke Gromen (founder and president of Forest For the Trees) and Brent Johnson (CEO of Santiago Capital) over at realvision.com. They discuss many of the things you highlight with regards to the Dollar and Gold but not Bitcoin! Unfortunately I think its behind the paywall.
I would say, that while many of the things you and Bloomberg point out are potentially true, and potentially concerning, I think it is also true that the Euro-center is already in considerably worse shape than the US.
This is due to the complexity of mining gold and Bitcoin and the lack of such difficulty in creating fiat money. Price and value are not the same. In Bitcoin, an advantage over gold is that Bitcoins are finite and gold is not. It is impossible to find new mines, new profitable methods of mining or to extract it in space on asteroids (which will be done at the end of this century). Bitcoin has intrinsic value, at a minimum it is the purchase of other cryptocurrencies. Digital gold of the 21st century is Bitcoin.
