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If you say mining is breakeven or slight loss today, but you expect it to go much higher, you should still mine.
Last time I correctly predicted that it would go from 8 to 15$ then collapse. I can see short term going up to 45$, but then the collapse would come. Interestingly, the more popular bitcoin becomes, the bigger the danger of a government action. Once that happens, 80-90% of value loss overnight.
The real genius would be to start a new currency, shall we call it Flipcoin. Since now people know that early bird gets the dollars, starting it would take much less time and the few starter guys could keep a few 10 thousands for themselves...
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
"For every good dot-com idea, there are a handful of really terrible ideas. Flooz.com was a perfect example of a "what the heck were they thinking?" business. Pushed by Jumping Jack Flash star and perennial Hollywood Squares center square Whoopi Goldberg, Flooz was meant to be online currency that would serve as an alternative to credit cards. After buying a certain amount of Flooz, you could then use it at a number of retail partners. While the concept is similar to a merchant's gift card, at least gift cards are tangible items that are backed by the merchant and not a third party. It boggles the mind why anyone would rather use an "online currency" than an actual credit card, but that didn't stop Flooz from raising a staggering $35 million from investors and signing up retail giants such as Tower Records, Barnes & Noble, and Restoration Hardware. Flooz went bankrupt in August 2001 along with its competitor Beenz.com."
"Beenz.com was a web site that allowed consumers to earn beenz, a type of online currency, for performing activities such as visiting a web site, shopping online, or logging on through an Internet service provider. The beenz e-currency could then be spent with participating online merchants.
The Beenz management team raised almost $100 million from venture capitalists including Apax/Patrickof, Larry Ellison of Oracle, Francois Pinault of PPR, Vivendi Universal, Italian financier Carlo de Benedetti and Hikari Tsushin of Japan."
At least Bitcoin was much cheaper to start and made its maker a millionaire...
As been mentioned, and from what I've read about current "mining" methods, field-programmable gate arrays (FPGA) are now required, GPUs just don't cut it anymore. The bar has been raised.
Now with regards to trading, my biggest worry is that the market could be easily manipulated and you could be on the wrong side of the trade when that occurs. I have seriously thought about (not researched) trading bitcoins so please correct me if I'm wrong (with sources).
I am surprised nobody mentioned the current runup in BTC value. In the last few days it almost reached $50, peaking at 49. I was about to post a prediction that in the next 2 weeks it would drop below 30, because of the hyperbolic raise. I have just checked the price, and after reaching 49, it dropped to 33 the next day, so a pretty decent drop already has happened, although the price has recovered since....At 47+ right now:
Here is a very long thread discussing BTC and mining ability/profitability. I am trying to figure out the breakeven point for mining, assuming one already has a rig and needs to pay for electricity only...
"$47 now! Now, my bitcoins are worth over $500!!! I only used like $80 of electricity to mine all of them during the winter (which also heated the man-cave, killing 2 birds with a stone)!"
OK, so mining app. 10 coins costed him $80, so that is about 8 bucks per coin in energy. That is a pretty decent return, and as he said, in the winter time it also warmth the house... Of course he might have a very efficient or expensive rig, but as long as the energy stays under 10 bucks and the value 3-4 times of that, it makes mining a very profitable although slow adventure...
The other information I was looking for is just what kind of profit one can expect by mining without access to free energy and/or multiple computers. (like a school teacher or such) Also I wanted to know the difficulty rate of mining, which is increasing....
Here is another poster from the link posted above:
"I checked at 12 noon it comes up with 27.5 Th with price at 34 usd and difficulty at 4.36 million.
I would love to see these prices just stay put. I make 20-25 bucks profit a day with these numbers."
That is not bad. Assuming the person is a gamer with a nice gaming rig, mining would pay off the cost of his rig in 3 months or so...
Here is the breakdown of his calculations and his rig:
1 powercolor hd7990 = 1000 hash
2 msi hd7950 = 900 hash
8 hd7970 = 4200 hash IIRC :
1 msi reference
4 xfx 2 fan 925ghz
1 visontek reference
1 powercolor reference
and maybe 1 sapphire 2 fan or a gigabyte 2 fan.
My total is about 6100 hash.
I underclock to keep my hash to watts at 3 hash = 1 watt so I pull 2k-watt an hour.
6000 hash 2000 watts.
That is 48 k watt a day at 16 cents is about 7.68 usd in power. My rates are 8 cent for power plus 8 cent for delivery or 16 cents a k-watt total.
I am now getting about .9 coins a day or .9 x 33 usd = 29.70 usd minus 7.68 is 22.02 usd a day.
Plus my heating bill is lower about 90 a month or 3 a day so 22.02 plus 3 is 25 a day."
