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Hi all, looking for some analysis of this big move up on crude, specifically, from a real-time trading perspective, what is the best way in your opinion to trade this? Wait for breakout and retest? Enter on a limit?
I entered on a limit and got stopped out by 10 ticks before the 250 tick move up--now that was frustrating! See the video and would love some feedback on this. Basically, how did you play this, and at what moment were you convinced that the move was "for real"?
Here's what I was looking at (QM) with Kase bars....I could never find a tick chart that worked reliably with oil, some success w /5m and 15m but, Kase is the way to go. My advice would be not to reason why...but trade what you see. Focus on P/A and not blindly enter and cross your fingers.
Find a chart that gives you reliable signals (and KNOW how to read them) and focus on p/a at areas that are likely to see a turn around. As far as knowing how big a move will be...you can't ...that's why you have to manage trades, some are homeruns and some are not. P.S. I am assuming you know what a pinbar is and/or basic reversal candles look like so you know what I've shown with this chart.
Actually as I mentioned the low around .60, forming the reversal bar, I just missed with a limit order at .55, as I looked far left and , and again I just missed the later move as I was stopped out -10 ticks. I don't feel the type of bar is an issue as I use minute bars and tick bars, I don't like range/kase bars very much in general. I feel they are very poor at showing me personally what price actually did at a level (not very good tails on candles, not too accurate in showing where buyers and sellers actually came in). Just curious, why do you use kase bars and not range bars?
I'm not talking about PA in general--I'm talking about the strength of this move--of course we don't know ahead of time how strong a move will be, but let's analyze this market before and find out any factors that may have contributed to the strong move up. Was it because we had such a strong decline down earlier? Did a spike in volume at some point lead anyone to believe that we might rocket up? Was that last little dip down (at 1:20pm) just a stop run, or was there some supply/demand -based reason why? Just looking to learn from today's action.
