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Trading CL (Crude Oil futures) #2


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Trading CL (Crude Oil futures) #2

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  #1 (permalink)
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Since the old thread was closed, I now begin the new thread here! Please continue the discussion...

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  #2 (permalink)
louisiana
 
 
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mike im just starting to sim trade CL but no one is posting, is there another room you guys are in , i really want to learn and i enjoyed the first thread

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  #3 (permalink)
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hi trader,
read the old CL thread (link blow) for infos + post you charts / trade- + deas here in this one - i am shure the dicussion is going on then .
CL is worth it !

max-td
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There are still a lot of CL traders here, give them time and the posts will be there.

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Crude Inventories at 11am Today

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  #6 (permalink)
Paris, France
 
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Well since no one is posting I'm going to show you what I did today. I started out by moving my stop to breakeven and then cried as it rallied 100 ticks. I'm going to learn not to do that one way or the other.

Next I tested the market and got stopped out a few times, but then managed to get two nice trades and ended the day +$400. They would have been even nicer if I didn't chicken out and cash in.

My intermediate goal is to be more patient to get longer runners.

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Westlake, Oh
 
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Very nice Cunparis. Do you think by drawing you own trend lines that it keeps you
more in tune to whats going on?
Have you ever tried doing an over lay of the swing high swing low indicator to see
it compared to your chart?

Vic

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  #8 (permalink)
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Riverend View Post
Very nice Cunparis. Do you think by drawing you own trend lines that it keeps you
more in tune to whats going on?
Have you ever tried doing an over lay of the swing high swing low indicator to see
it compared to your chart?

Vic

Hi Vic, Thanks.

I much prefer drawing everything myself. It keeps me on my toes and in touch with the charts. Keeps me active. I think having indicators do all the work can make me lazy. So I've been drawing everything by hand, experimenting with trendlines and swing pivots. After a while you draw them without even thinking and that's when you know you're in tune with the charts.

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louisiana
 
 
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guys im new to CL and i use 24 hour chart so here are few ?'s
1) what is open outcry trading ? and is this time frame of 9 untill 2:30 important , very important ?
2) on cme website it says last trading day. Trading terminates at the close of business on the third business day prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the delivery month. so does that mean i change to 11-09 on tuesday 09-22-09 and if so what time do i change it

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trader9278 View Post
guys im new to CL and i use 24 hour chart so here are few ?'s
1) what is open outcry trading ? and is this time frame of 9 untill 2:30 important , very important ?
2) on cme website it says last trading day. Trading terminates at the close of business on the third business day prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the delivery month. so does that mean i change to 11-09 on tuesday 09-22-09 and if so what time do i change it

#1 - that's when CL is most liquid. I trade it before then but not after.

#2 - just load up the current montha and the next month contract and when you see more volume on the next month you trade that. Trade where the volume is. each market has it's own rollover preferences, just go with the volume.

I do not recommend CL unless you have a proven winning method on other markets. And even then it's possible it won't work on CL. CL is amazing.

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Alberta
 
 
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Two trades for me today, first hit target (40 ticks) and the second was a be. I moved to be ahead of schedule as price in the trade went positive 3 times and then dropped under my entry, that plus I was into the second yellow bar so i moved to be + 1. Slipped to be - 1 on the fill.

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  #12 (permalink)
Paris, France
 
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Hey guys I'm going to try to post some CL trades. I figure if I know I'm going to post them then maybe I'll stick to my system and not do anything stupid. Yesterday I fell off my horse and things got ugly. So I'm riding safe today.

Today is my 3rd week trading CL without indicators. After 2 weeks on sim I'm now trading with real money. 1 contract.

I'm currently experimenting with:

- how tight do I want to keep my stops. Currently they're more than 20 ticks away but if I see bad price action I'm out.

- how to take profits. currently 30 tick profit target. As soon as I'm consistent then I will add a second contract to be my runner. Consistency first!

Let me know if you have any comments on these issues and/or my trades. If you have any questions just ask.




PS: I'm never going back to indicators!!!

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solfest View Post
Two trades for me today, first hit target (40 ticks) and the second was a be. I moved to be ahead of schedule as price in the trade went positive 3 times and then dropped under my entry, that plus I was into the second yellow bar so i moved to be + 1. Slipped to be - 1 on the fill.

Sorry I missed your post the other day. Good job on your trades. 40 tick target is oustanding. I figure one of those a day and I'm all set!

Can you elaborate on your entry criteria?

Thanks for sharing.

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Alberta
 
 
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The bars turn blue when the ADX and ATR hit certain levels with price on the trade side of all the EMAs and the 8 EMA on the trade side of the other EMAs. I then look for a break of the previous bars high/low for the entry.

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Paris, France
 
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My first 4 trades. Finished $63. Not that great so I'm looking for comments and suggestions. Thank you.


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That's pretty good for a day like today.

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Everyone,

I have created a thread pertaining to a certain setup I am trading on the CL. You can view it here:


Gary

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Paris, France
 
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Starting the week off with a quick $300 from a head & shoulder pattern.


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Hey cunparis, how many markets are you trading? Do you have a few screens up and look for set ups or pick one market for the day and thats all you trade

Adam

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crez View Post
Hey cunparis, how many markets are you trading? Do you have a few screens up and look for set ups or pick one market for the day and thats all you trade

Adam

Good question Adam. I'm trading:

- CL
- 6E (Euro)
- ES
- ZN

all with the same exact chart, same setups except for ES I'm a bit more aggressive entering on failed breakouts (reversals).

If a setup is looking really good I take it on my real account. If it is questionable I take it on sim. I find this keeps me from doing stupid things with my real account. The sim gives me my "fix" for risky action. If it's really bad I sit aside.

I actually entered on all 4 markets at the same time. all positive but ES which is pulling back and in hindsight I should have reversed on ES and went long. BTW ZN is negatively correllated with the others so if I go short on the others I'm long on ZN. I find it's good to trade all 4 because it gives me a good view of the market. Often one will lead, usually CL or 6E and even if I miss it I can take a trade on the others.

Hope that helps.

Heck here's a screen capture of my desktop, that should explain it.


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Paris, France
 
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Scored again! Dragged my target down 5 more ticks this time.


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Paris, France
 
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Very intense trading today. Very challenging. Too much consolidation. But I got another good run from being patient.

Here's the setup for the last trade. As you can see I entered early, the bar reversed on me at the last minute. I'm still used to tick charts which go faster. Sometimes waiting for the 5min bar to close seems like eternity but in the end it's good cause I have a lot more time to think it over.




So I put my stop well under support. I was really stretched here cause the stop was far away and I came close to taking a big loss. But I really have confidence in the HVC bars. In fact as we know triangle bottoms usually break to the downside but HVC bars were able to hold it up.



Here's the end of the run. I really managed this one. It was up almost 40 ticks and I got out with 32. I think next time I just get out at 30 and save myself some trouble.




I quit trading CL at 11:30 ET so that's it for me. 75 ticks = $724 for CL. Time to pick up my kids and take them to the playground. I'll hit ES for the last hour after the kids are in bed.

Let me know if you have any comments or suggestions. I appreciate feedback.

PS: I'm experimenting around with some indicators but I'm not using them in my trading. just looking at them afterwards to see if they could have helped. So far the answer is NO. Price & Volume are the only true indicators.

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Thanks for posting these charts and explaining your trades. Its a big help.

David

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  #24 (permalink)
Paris, France
 
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David View Post
Thanks for posting these charts and explaining your trades. Its a big help.

David

My pleasure David, I'm glad you found it useful. I struggled for a long time and I told myself that when I became profitable I would help others as much as I can.

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Are you finding the 5 min chart to be the best time frame to use. I had gotten away from minute charts and have been only using range, but am having a look at the 5 min again.

Thanks, Jeff

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Are you finding the 5 min chart to be the best time frame to use. I had gotten away from minute charts and have been only using range, but am having a look at the 5 min again.

I don't use range so I really can't say anything bad about it. Many people use range here.

I like to use time or ticks so that I can see the relationship between the open and the close. This is very useful for reading price action in my opinion. Yes the open & close are a bit arbitrary due to the tick/time length chosen, but I still find it helpful.

Whether 5 min is best depends on what kind of moves you want to catch. I wouldn't scalp 5 ticks off a 5min, and I would trade a 150 tick chart looking for a 30 pt swing. The trick is to find the chart that shows you what you need for the objectives you have (stop & targets). I'm still experimenting but so far 5min has one advantage for me: I use 5min on all markets. So it's consistent and easy to look from one to another.

Really it's a personal choice that comes with lots of trial & error.

Got my butt handed to me attempting to trade this consolidation. It's not easy to see it's consolidation until it's too late.

If someone wants to post another timeframe, tick, or range chart we can compare. Perhaps it'd be more visible with anther chart time. Unfortunately my Ninjatrader is hung "loading data" so I can't open any more charts. If they nothing other than fix the bugs for NT 7 I will be a satisified customer!



I just noticed the warning was there, you can see lots of overlapping bars on the left hand side of the chart. That showed that things weren't all good..

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Paris, France
 
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I didn't trade yesterday, took the day off because of FOMC day and I worked a full day at work to make up for my losses on Tuesday. I really lost it on Tuesday. Totally discarded my rules, overtraded, revenge traded, the whole 9 yards.

BUT taking the day off yesterday really did me good cause it gave me time to reflect and clean up my act.

Result?

30+34 ticks today on CL. a 3rd trade was BE.

Back in the saddle..



Notice the KCD indicator is printing a KCD warning and there is bullish divergence on the indicator. It's increasing showing momentum is up. This is why I do not use indicators. I put this on recently just to see if it would help anything and I'm taking it off! Do not trust indicators, even commercial ones (this one is $$$$). Trust your ability to read price & volume. They do not lie.

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the coin hunter
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cunparis View Post
I don't use range so I really can't say anything bad about it. Many people use range here.
....

If someone wants to post another timeframe, tick, or range chart we can compare. Perhaps it'd be more visible with anther chart time. Unfortunately my Ninjatrader is hung "loading data" so I can't open any more charts. If they nothing other than fix the bugs for NT 7 I will be a satisified customer!

...

d..

hard to say if it was more visible or not since it's a history chart.


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cunparis
I really like how you trade. Please keep it up. On my play along at home version the only thing I have added to your charts is that I replaced the horizontal lines with a square of nine based on a recent monthly or weekly high. I use this to set targets such as green to green or red to red. See chart. I have always done the market replay at the end of the day going through and marking the chart again as I go and I agree with you that this screen time is invaluable. If you were faked out during the day you get a "second" chance at it. (Hopefully you get it right the second time with hindsight 20/20 glasses installed...) But I think seeing the exact fake-out move again and spending the time to reassess it correctly reinforces good habits.

note: reassess sure is a funny looking word...




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Paris, France
 
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First two trades today.

I came home at 8:15 NY time. Just missed a setup on CL. I entered a limit order on my DOM and then took it off. Why? Cause news was coming out and I didn't want to chase the market. I always enter on a stop. That way you enter with momentum and not with price pulling back.

Then I watched price drop 100+ ticks. Bummer. But better to not have risked loosing cause news is dangerous!

So what to do? Relax and wait for the next setup. There's always a good setup. Every day. Usually several. Pick and choose. But always take the good ones.

34+ ticks only cause I couldn't drag my profit target fast enough. I have a quad core with 4 gigs ram and Ninjatrader is still slow when price moves very fast. Bummer. I suspect it's one of my indicators but I'm not sure, probably the one I said I was going to remove!


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  #31 (permalink)
Paris, France
 
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Hard to post & Trade CL at the same time!


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  #32 (permalink)
Paris, France
 
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Stop & Reverse!


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Paris, France
 
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Paris, France
 
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I haven't been posting because I'm testing out trading 9 range instead of 5 min. 5min was mostly profitable for me but the risk was often $300-400. So I'm hoping by trading a smaller timeframe I can do more scalping and have lower risk. So far it's going well.

Earlier in the thread someone asked if about CL rollover and I replied "when the 2nd month contract volume is greater than the front month".

Anyone know about when this happens? Is it the same day like in the indexes? Or is it variable? I'm going over historical charts and sometimes I'm not sure which to use.

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  #35 (permalink)
Near Dallas, Texas, US
 
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cunparis View Post
Earlier in the thread someone asked if about CL rollover and I replied "when the 2nd month contract volume is greater than the front month".

Anyone know about when this happens? Is it the same day like in the indexes? Or is it variable? I'm going over historical charts and sometimes I'm not sure which to use.

CL Termination schedule: NYMEX.com: Light Sweet Crude Oil

Gary


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Paris, France
 
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Gary View Post
CL Termination schedule: NYMEX.com: Light Sweet Crude Oil

Gary


Ok so that tells me when trading stops, but i'm looking to know when the 2nd month has more volume.

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Near Dallas, Texas, US
 
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cunparis View Post
Ok so that tells me when trading stops, but i'm looking to know when the 2nd month has more volume.

Normally just before the expiration date I would assume, but I keep the current and next month contracts up on market analyzer and keep an eye out:



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  #38 (permalink)
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Gary View Post
Normally just before the expiration date I would assume, but I keep the current and next month contracts up on market analyzer and keep an eye out:

Attachment 3144

Gary

I wonder if I can use my Tradestation to generate continuous contract tick data for CL?
I can just write an indicator that will write the data out to a file.
And import into Ninja?

it's a pain not having continuous contract. that's the only thing I miss from IQFeed. Well that and stocks.

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Energy outlook: Crude correlations and what comes next

Source: Futures Magazine


Futures Mag
Want to know where crude oil is headed? Look no further than George Washington, Dow Jones and the S&P 500. In this new world of economic chaos, supply/demand factors and geopolitics have shifted to the back burner as crude becomes more heavily linked to the U.S. dollar and the stock market. At the end of August 2009, crude was in the $70 range, twice its February 2009 levels.





Read rest of article...

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  #40 (permalink)
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I'm now doing semi-naked trading. After reading the books book I'm interested in having the 20 EMA on my chart. I don't use it for signals, but just to remind me of where price is and if it's trending , losing momentum, etc. Not really necessary but if you trade 3 markets it makes things quicker. I do not use the dots and will probably turn them off. I'm also not really using volume most of the time but volume is like an old friend so he comes along for the ride.

Here's my first CL trade. Price made a couple lower lows so I entered on a new one. Still open.

I took a break from posting here to see if anyone else would share. SO far not much. If I don't see some participation I'll probably stop cause I don't like talking to myself and it takes time to do it.

The other reason I took a few days off is I was experimenting with range charts and so far I find 10 range and 5 minute pretty close (before the open) so I'm currently using both until I decide.



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I'm in a short Euro & CL trade here and I'm waiting for a setup on ES so I thought I'd expand a bit on my last post.

Over the last 2 weeks I have tried scalping euro & CL for 10 ticks. The results were not positive. I'm sure others can be quite successful doing that but it just must not fit my style or personality or whatever cause I couldn't do it. A few days I had 38 trades on CL alone. That's just crazy.

So now I'm back to my original naked method which is just trading breakouts of S/R. That's it. Nothing fancy. Really simple really. And you don't need any indicators to do it. Just price.

The only downside is for euro & CL I use a stop of around 30 ticks. That's $300 for CL which is quite a lot. I had a few days with 3 losses and that's $900 for the day which really hurts. That's what got me thinking maybe scalping is safer. Well it wasn't for me. So now I'm back to my old self.

Having a 30 tick stop made me really nervous and that affected my trading. So to overcome this I told myself I'd do at least 1 week on sim and I'd let every have a chance to run. My goal is 30-50 ticks on a winner. Just 1 winning trade is enough for me and I can quit for the day.

Today I was trading Euro on the london session. I got stopped out for 20+ ticks. That hurt a bit but I stop & reversed and the reversal I made 50 ticks and ended up positive $300 for those two trades. The only two I did on the london session.

I just go stopped out of my CL trade at +1 tick. It was up around 30. I'm trying to find the optimal profit target and I'm debating between 30 & 50. 30 would have worked best here but other times it runs for 100+ ticks.

I reversed though so let's see what I can get on the long side.

I will probably move this to a journal so that I can post Euro & ES trades too. That is if anyone is interested.



as with all the other indicators, I am playing around with the slingshot but not using it for my trade decisions.

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Take notice of the slightly bigger picture on CL even for short-term "scalpers".... this trendline is important.



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Here is today's. You can see the trendline in my prior days chart was respected still today, and price moved up to the weekly R2 line.



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No, I do not trade a 60m chart. I trade a 6 range. But I use multiple charts to know what it is doing, a 6 range isn't going to tell you where the market is going.

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I disagree. Which is why I posted the big picture chart and said "take notice even for short time scalpers".

If you watch any of my videos or read my blogs, you will know I always say you need multiple time frames.

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haim,

From my understanding of your other posts, you are unemployed and are struggling for money to pay your heating bill. You consider trading to be your only skill. You've blown your account.

Judging from this, and your replies on this thread, please take my advice and stop trading. You need to go find something else to support your family. Once your family is taken care of, you can then continue learning about how to trade.

It is easy to get caught up in the "hope" that trading will save you. It will not. I'm sure you've read many books on trading, how do they all start? Something like this "if you're interested in trading and are trying to pay your bills from trading alone, stop right now it won't work" or etc.

In addition, CL is not a beginners instrument. So you should not even be considering it. You attempting to trade CL is gambling, not trading. There are plenty of good posts and threads on the forum that explain what you should do as a beginner, and none of them are going to say to trade oil.

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BTW,

I've rolled over to the 12-09 contract as of this evening. I was seeing more volume on it in the AH session, but I will check it again tomorrow before open just to make sure.

Just a reminder to my fellow oil traders.

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  #48 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
Here is today's. You can see the trendline in my prior days chart was respected still today, and price moved up to the weekly R2 line.

Hey Mike,

Thanks for posting this chart. I only trade 1 timeframe and I don't look at CL's larger charts. But it's interesting to see how it's really range bound. My CL trading has been pretty bad this week and last week and I was wondering why. It's pretty clear on your chart.

So I'm focusing my efforts on avoiding trading during trading ranges on my intraday chart (300 tick & 3 minute right now, I'm tweaking that often).

In fact a few weeks ago I was trading CL on 5 min chart and doing very well. Then 5min started looking weird to me. The bars overlapped like crazy or they were real tall followed by more overlapping bars. So I lowered my timeframe trying to find some patterns I could trade.

What I realize now is that I should have stuck to the 5 min and if the bars overlapped or it just didn't look right I should have just not traded it!!!

Chalk that one up to experience. Now I'm working on reversal patterns to turn this range bound market into an advantage. Trying to trade a trending setup with a rangebound market isn't good and vice versa. Hard to know the difference during the day. 60m helps.

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haim View Post
Do you know how much money Bruce Kovner had in his trading account when he started? He got 3K from credit cards and the rest in history......

So yes, the road is long but every marathon starts with the first yard and even with a fall on the face sometimes. NEVER give up on your dreams if you want to get somewhere .

Thanks again for your honest input.

I agree. Use your milk money for trading cause drinking milk won't make you rich.

Please keep us updated on your progress.

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  #50 (permalink)
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cunparis View Post
I agree. Use your milk money for trading cause drinking milk won't make you rich.

Please keep us updated on your progress.

For every Bruce Kovner story, how many stories of people going broke and then never trading again do you think there are? He also supposedly got one trade which made $20K on his $3K, nice start!

It's not impossible, just unlikely. I think the pressure from trading under capitalized will make it more difficult than it already is to get a hold on the discipline and money management side of things. Have you decided what will happen if you lose another $3K?

Don't give up; I just think you need to approach trading with certain requirements and a plan ahead of time on what you will do when things are working and when they aren't.

Gary

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Gary View Post
For every Bruce Kovner story, how many stories of people going broke and then never trading again do you think there are? He also supposedly got one trade which made $20K on his $3K, nice start!

It's not impossible, just unlikely. I think the pressure from trading under capitalized will make it more difficult than it already is to get a hold on the discipline and money management side of things. Have you decided what will happen if you lose another $3K?

Don't give up; I just think you need to approach trading with certain requirements and a plan ahead of time on what you will do when things are working and when they aren't.

Gary

If I were him I'd trade penny stocks.

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  #52 (permalink)
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Not everyone is like Bruce Kovner. So everybody is not like Bruce Kovner. What works for him may not work for you.

I don't subscribe to borrowing money to trade when the basic Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs is not met. eg, Shelter, Food.



If I am single, that's fine that I am the only one affected. If the family is involved, I am not that selfish.

I would place trading in Safety Needs or Psychological Needs as base but extends to the top as peak experience. Trading can be an adrenalin junkie fix for me.

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Answering a question from the Al Brooks price action thread, I'm currently using a 12 tick target for my first contract on CL, which I consider a scalp.

I think you guys also need to look at risk when you define your target. It is not very likely you can set a stop of 6 ticks with a target of 6 ticks and win more than 50% of the time, in my opinion (with regards to CL). Your 6 tick target will very likely be hit, but your stop hit first too many times.

I'm experimenting with something that is a bit radical for me, but it feels right. I've moved my stops @ the broker to 'emergency stops', and am instead now only exiting a trade manually when I feel it has indeed gone against me, vs when my stop is hit.

For those following me a long time you know that is a radical departure for me. But I think this is the evolution of trading on my path, and like I said, it feels right to me. Too many times I picked the correct direction but was stopped by trying to maintain a hard limit of 1:1 risk.

So I've pushed the stop back quite a bit, to an emergency stop, and instead am focusing on executing a better than 1:1 (actually the average is closer to 2.0 reward over risk). So now trades where I am right I give them the opportunity to actually win.

Don't get me wrong, if at the end of the day my avg is less than 1:1 there is a major problem, but so far it is working well. I find that most trades do not turn against me, and most trades I feel no need to want to exit. Those that do, I can usually exit at a much improved price over what a hard stop would have allowed.

I think sefstrat was advocating some similar technique recently, so I am curious what he has to say if he is reading this thread. It also goes without saying that you have to really have conquered the psychological aspect of trading, because it can otherwise get away from you way too easily ("oh I think this one is coming back") and it will kill you quick. Luckily that is not my problem any longer so I feel good about it.

BTW, for 2nd contract I have a hard target of 40 ticks, which moves the stop to break even once the 1st target is hit, and I manually adjust the 40 tick target down if I feel like the move is slowing. I also manually adjust it upward if the move has lots of momentum.

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I'm experimenting with something that is a bit radical for me, but it feels right. I've moved my stops @ the broker to 'emergency stops', and am instead now only exiting a trade manually when I feel it has indeed gone against me, vs when my stop is hit.

This is the approach we endorse in our trading room on all of our markets. We have an emergency stop in case a war breaks out or something and the market runs away, and then we watch for market conditions to tell us when to bail on a trade. Clients who won't "drink the kool-aid" and use a tight stop in the market nearly always perform worse than we do trading the same setups. So, we've had a year or two of real-world side-by-side comparison to go on.

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cunparis View Post
Very intense trading today. Very challenging. Too much consolidation. But I got another good run from being patient.

Here's the setup for the last trade. As you can see I entered early, the bar reversed on me at the last minute. I'm still used to tick charts which go faster. Sometimes waiting for the 5min bar to close seems like eternity but in the end it's good cause I have a lot more time to think it over.




So I put my stop well under support. I was really stretched here cause the stop was far away and I came close to taking a big loss. But I really have confidence in the HVC bars. In fact as we know triangle bottoms usually break to the downside but HVC bars were able to hold it up.



Here's the end of the run. I really managed this one. It was up almost 40 ticks and I got out with 32. I think next time I just get out at 30 and save myself some trouble.




I quit trading CL at 11:30 ET so that's it for me. 75 ticks = $724 for CL. Time to pick up my kids and take them to the playground. I'll hit ES for the last hour after the kids are in bed.

Let me know if you have any comments or suggestions. I appreciate feedback.

PS: I'm experimenting around with some indicators but I'm not using them in my trading. just looking at them afterwards to see if they could have helped. So far the answer is NO. Price & Volume are the only true indicators.

i just start to read ur post today. it was very impressive. trading without indicator is simple but effective from ur post. I am going to learn from u. thx.

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aFei View Post
i just start to read ur post today. it was very impressive. trading without indicator is simple but effective from ur post. I am going to learn from u. thx.

I created a thread about HVC:



Trading without indicators is the first step IMHO. Then you add some indicators to simplify and speed up your analysis. But adding indicators without first knowing how to trade price is not good. So give it a try and post some charts. CL isn't the easiest to trade. in fact I often consider dropping it. And then I'll have a great day on CL (like Friday, 37 ticks in 2 trades before 9:30 and I was done for the day).

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Anyone know how CL behaves on FOMC days? I'm at work so I can't check the charts.

I usually don't trade ES on those days and I usually don't trade CL on the crude inventory days. So I'm considering doing other work today instead of trading.

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Hey guys,

I wanted to share this:


Just posted it, it may be helpful to fellow crude oil traders.

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  #59 (permalink)
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Hi:

I have been trading CL successfully for some time now using 3 time frames. My trading chart is 300 ticks, medium time frame 900 ticks and long term time frame 2700 ticks. I used a momentum indicator, a cycle indicator and a volume indicator. I take shorts at cycle highs and go long at cycle lows but there must also be a concomitant tradable wave pattern, or a nice ABC retracement. I enter one tick above my trigger bar for a long and short one tick below.

The problem I have is that crude moves so fast that there are many times that price shoots past my desired entry before I can get it down onto the chart. So I have decided to try a switch and trade range bars or renko, which should work just as effectively with my strategy.

So I have these questions I hope someone out there can help me with.

1. Would Renko Bars be better than range bars?
2. Does anyone have any ideas as to the settings for range and renko bars on a trading chart and a longer term chart.
3. Any other tips for trading CL.

I would be happy to share my exact trading strategy with anyone that is interested. I can post a screen shot, my indicators and their settings.

Many Thanks

PS: I am new to Big Mike's and in the week or so I've been here I’ve been amazed at the incredible amount of great information that this site contains.

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andrewrunners View Post
Hi:

I have been trading CL successfully for some time now using 3 time frames. My trading chart is 300 ticks, medium time frame 900 ticks and long term time frame 2700 ticks. I used a momentum indicator, a cycle indicator and a volume indicator. I take shorts at cycle highs and go long at cycle lows

Sounds very similar to the eminiwatch tools. If it is, I think they work best on liquid markets.

Crude is very fast, instead of changing chart settings to try and get around that, I think looking at slower markets makes a lot more sense.

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  #61 (permalink)
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cunparis View Post
...Crude is very fast, instead of changing chart settings to try and get around that, I think looking at slower markets makes a lot more sense.

Yep. You can't "slow down" CL by selecting a different bar type. Slower markets or of course bigger time frames would be a better way.
Btw, if you think CL is fast, have a look at FDAX

vvhg

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  #62 (permalink)
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andrewrunners View Post
Hi:

I have been trading CL successfully for some time now using 3 time frames....

Hello @andrewrunners,

Welcome to futures.io (formerly BMT).

Based on your comment shown above, why change anything? If you have found a way to consistently make money using any method or instrument, why are you looking to change anything? I find that many people look to "optimize" what is already working, and end up hurting themselves more than anything.

Also, can you provide more information on what you mean by you missing your entry point? Are you using a limit order and you fail to get filled?

Personally, I prefer range bars, 6 range for entry, and always use market orders. I will on occasion get some slippage more than a tick , but I am looking for entries which are usually followed by some decent momentum, and thus don't want to miss my entry point. Range bars speak to me, Renko may speak to you better. As far as a larger chart, I only use them when price is trading outside of my entry chart, and I need to determine a possible area of support/resistance, for stops/targets.

Keep it simple, and if you have something which is working, only look to increase size, and not change anything else.

Just my $.02.

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  #63 (permalink)
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andrewrunners View Post
Hi:

I have been trading CL successfully for some time now using 3 time frames. My trading chart is 300 ticks, medium time frame 900 ticks and long term time frame 2700 ticks. I used a momentum indicator, a cycle indicator and a volume indicator. I take shorts at cycle highs and go long at cycle lows but there must also be a concomitant tradable wave pattern, or a nice ABC retracement. I enter one tick above my trigger bar for a long and short one tick below.

The problem I have is that crude moves so fast that there are many times that price shoots past my desired entry before I can get it down onto the chart. So I have decided to try a switch and trade range bars or renko, which should work just as effectively with my strategy.

So I have these questions I hope someone out there can help me with.

1. Would Renko Bars be better than range bars?
2. Does anyone have any ideas as to the settings for range and renko bars on a trading chart and a longer term chart.
3. Any other tips for trading CL.

I would be happy to share my exact trading strategy with anyone that is interested. I can post a screen shot, my indicators and their settings.

Many Thanks

PS: I am new to Big Mike's and in the week or so I've been here I’ve been amazed at the incredible amount of great information that this site contains.

Hi Andrew,

I guess you are considering range or renko, not so much to 'slow' the market down, but more because range and renko have a definable point where the bar will close and the next one open. In that way I assume you are saying your strategy allows you to see a signal setting up so you would put your order in advance at the forecasted close of a bar (or +1 tick or whatever).

I trade CL this way. I used to trade a range chart like Gary, but 7 tick. Now I use a 5 tick Renko as I find this talks to me better. I use BetterRenko but SbSRenko works just as well.

I scalp for 4 or 5 ticks (on most setups) so I use Limit Orders for entry - but I acknowledge a number of times you will not get filled as the market skips past your limit. Gary (see his post above) accepts a little bit of slippage as he is going for bigger profit targets that I am.

Best thing to do is put up 3 charts (yours, range and renko) and trade them in SIM for a while and see what you think.

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  #64 (permalink)
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Hi Gary and Steve:

When I say missing my target I am referring to this. I believe that my entry is going to occur one tick above or one tick below the close of the currently forming bar. I have my set up in place but this bar needs to trigger the set up so I must wait for the tick bar to close. Once it closes I need to place my order fast, but sometimes the market moves so quickly that my limit order never gets filled. I wind up loosing out on a nice winner.

As far as trading one chart is concerned, it is my own personal bias not to do it. I cannot even count the number of great trade set ups on my trading or trigger chart I have passed up because, momentum, volume or cycles are moving in the opposite direction on the higher time frame. If I would have taken the trade I it would have been a looser or at best a scratch win. Its when these energies align that you get your low risk, big winning trades.

What’s tough about trading range bars is trying to figure out what your longer term time frame chart should be. Today I traded CL on SIM, using an 8 range as my trigger chart and a 900 tick as my confirmation chart. Optimally, the ratio should be about 3:1. This worked out really well for me. I hit my first three trades and all three were nice runners.

Here is the magic of trading 2 charts. Your short term or trigger chart defines your risk. You enter one tick above or below the trigger bar on your short term chart with your stop one tick above or below the same bar. So the length of that one bar defines your risk. But then you follow the cycles, momentum and volume on the longer term time frame to determine your reward. It can be nail biting at times, as the shorter term time frame goes trough 2, 3 or even 4 cycles, with the market making small retracements against you with each cycle as the longer term time frame chart pushes forward on its “entry” cycle”. But this is how you can capture a 5 wave move.

If you trade 2 or more contracts you should close your first right before first support or resistance level, close the second in the same way if you trade 3 contracts and then try and get a full long term cycle run out of your last contract. This is where you get a 5 wave winner. Just one trade like that and you’re done for the day. But the hallmark of the strategy is that your risk is small and potential reward huge.

AndrewRunners

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  #65 (permalink)
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in between the Ichimoku Kumo strategy, the PivotDisciple, & the Daily Range
the CL has been one beautiful roller coaster ride!

thank you @ Gary for your NT7 ATM strategy


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  #66 (permalink)
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[/ATTACH]?attachmentid=60637[/IMG]

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  #67 (permalink)
Des Moines
 
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crude is getting hit around 100 every time it crosses that area in the past few weeks. does any body see this worth a short @100.1?
or is it just building abase before it goes higher back to its 103 range where it was sent down from ?


anybody with some technical charts / info to share ?

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  #68 (permalink)
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gkopparam View Post
crude is getting hit around 100 every time it crosses that area in the past few weeks. does any body see this worth a short @100.1?
or is it just building abase before it goes higher back to its 103 range where it was sent down from ?


anybody with some technical charts / info to share ?

This is a very old, and no longer updated, thread.

Better to look in the journals section of the forum for more active topics, like:



and



And I am sure there are many others.

Mike

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  #69 (permalink)
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gkopparam View Post
crude is getting hit around 100 every time it crosses that area in the past few weeks. does any body see this worth a short @100.1?
or is it just building abase before it goes higher back to its 103 range where it was sent down from ?

anybody with some technical charts / info to share ?

In theory every time a level is re-tested it's less likely to hold, however $100 is a very important level for crude.

Do you have a trading plan? If so would the short at 100.1 be valid? If so I think you should take it. If the answer to either question is "no", then I think you should not take it. The most important thing IMHO is to follow the plan.

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  #70 (permalink)
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i have 2 platform that i use, NT and metatrader4
my CL daily chart look like this whits one is right ?


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  #71 (permalink)
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Riverend View Post
Crude Inventories at 11am Today

@Riverend,

where to watch?

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  #72 (permalink)
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Cachevary View Post
@Riverend,

where to watch?

@Cachevary Wow that's a 5 year old post. I check a site in the morning called Finviz.com . It shows todays news, news articals charts and more. plus its free. Most of the news events are centered around US markets.t t
Check out the Futures tab at the top of the page for more commodity information.

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  #73 (permalink)
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Cachevary View Post
@Riverend,

where to watch?

Another possibility: Forex Calendar @ Forex Factory

After all, it's what you learn AFTER you know it all, that counts!
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  #74 (permalink)
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TheWizard View Post
Another possibility: Forex Calendar @ Forex Factory

@TheWizard,

how would you interprete those inventory figures?I assume that the positive figures mean lowering the price,as the producers have oil in excess?

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  #75 (permalink)
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Cachevary View Post
@TheWizard,

how would you interprete those inventory figures?I assume that the positive figures mean lowering the price,as the producers have oil in excess?

Honestly? I have no idea. When trading CL, I just liked to know when there were going to be reports coming out & NOT trade immediately before or after the report. I've watched price stall, just before a report, and get crazy wild just after a report. Wait until the crazy dies down before getting back in.

I was just chiming in with another source for such reports. Nice to know when they're coming out & be careful.

After all, it's what you learn AFTER you know it all, that counts!
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  #76 (permalink)
Russia,Khabarovsk
 
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TheWizard View Post
Honestly? I have no idea. When trading CL, I just liked to know when there were going to be reports coming out & NOT trade immediately before or after the report. I've watched price stall, just before a report, and get crazy wild just after a report. Wait until the crazy dies down before getting back in.

I was just chiming in with another source for such reports. Nice to know when they're coming out & be careful.

I understand.I was just asking more like for the fundamental reason,not for trading.So if those positive numbers affect the oil prices it affects the rouble in the midterm.Thanks anyway!

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  #77 (permalink)
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Cachevary View Post
how would you interprete those inventory figures?I assume that the positive figures mean lowering the price,as the producers have oil in excess?

Compared with the Natural Gas numbers I find the Oil numbers a lot more difficult to intrepretate.

Like any of these data releases the difference to expectation is far more important than the absolute number itself.

Oil is very complicated for several reasons
i) It's divided into different Padds or regions. An increase in Padd V - west of the rockies - is basically meaningless for most of the country as it's a completely seperate market. In reality what people really care about is Padds I, II & III and not the total number.
ii) There are inventory figures for both Crude & Products hence if refinary utilization is higher or lower than expected, crude inventory may swing, but products could have an equal and offsetting swing.
iii) Imports and Exports are mostly by boat and hence have a very uneven supply/demand profile. A crude tanker unloading one day later than expected could result in a 2.2million barrel shift in stocks from one week to another week.
iv) Stocks are seasonal so at certain times of the year we expect them to go up or down without it indicating a change in fundamentals.
v) Crude & products are not homogeneous. The crude refinary in Houston runs a different crude than a refinary in Chicago. The Gasoline you put in your car in Denver is very different to that in New York City. The inventory figures do not break that down though. Hence we may have plenty of crude in the US, but have very little WTI in Padd II (which is the crude and location that the NYMEX contract is delivered to). Hence you could see US crude prices in general drop, but NYMEX prices rise!

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  #78 (permalink)
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SMCJB View Post
Compared with the Natural Gas numbers I find the Oil numbers a lot more difficult to intrepretate.

Like any of these data releases the difference to expectation is far more important than the absolute number itself.

Oil is very complicated for several reasons
i) It's divided into different Padds or regions. An increase in Padd V - west of the rockies - is basically meaningless for most of the country as it's a completely seperate market. In reality what people really care about is Padds I, II & III and not the total number.
ii) There are inventory figures for both Crude & Products hence if refinary utilization is higher or lower than expected, crude inventory may swing, but products could have an equal and offsetting swing.
iii) Imports and Exports are mostly by boat and hence have a very uneven supply/demand profile. A crude tanker unloading one day later than expected could result in a 2.2million barrel shift in stocks from one week to another week.
iv) Stocks are seasonal so at certain times of the year we expect them to go up or down without it indicating a change in fundamentals.
v) Crude & products are not homogeneous. The crude refinary in Houston runs a different crude than a refinary in Chicago. The Gasoline you put in your car in Denver is very different to that in New York City. The inventory figures do not break that down though. Hence we may have plenty of crude in the US, but have very little WTI in Padd II (which is the crude and location that the NYMEX contract is delivered to). Hence you could see US crude prices in general drop, but NYMEX prices rise!

@SMCJB,

I see you are trading Energy.How do you interpret/filter out the news related to Energy?What the most important you are looking at?

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  #79 (permalink)
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Hello oil traders, Ive been trading the past couple of days with poor results, is anyone else having trouble? I think I keep
expecting big moves but the market recently is more choppy and Ive failed to adapt.

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  #80 (permalink)
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TickedOff View Post
Hello oil traders, Ive been trading the past couple of days with poor results, is anyone else having trouble? I think I keep
expecting big moves but the market recently is more choppy and Ive failed to adapt.


Hello,

Last week I got chopped up in CL after having a very good run in December and made the decision to step back out of it. I think that as we begin to find willing buyers and sellers, we are going to have a lot of action around this level. The fact that Sellers have been so aggressive could be leading them to disregard the fundamentals and just keep pressing looking for the $30 and $20 levels the media have touted.

As each side vies for control and power, there will be a lot of squeezes and things will get ugly. Just my 2c but for me, this is where I'd sit on my hands until we have a clear winner.

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  #81 (permalink)
Chicago, IL
 
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TickedOff View Post
Hello oil traders, Ive been trading the past couple of days with poor results, is anyone else having trouble? I think I keep
expecting big moves but the market recently is more choppy and Ive failed to adapt.

Big change in volatility and liquidity in all the markets that I'm following. I'm taking more stop outs, but I'm also getting bigger moves when it does go.

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  #82 (permalink)
Sydney / Australia
 
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TickedOff View Post
Hello oil traders, Ive been trading the past couple of days with poor results, is anyone else having trouble? I think I keep
expecting big moves but the market recently is more choppy and Ive failed to adapt.

Hey @TickedOff,

I am from Sydney as well. Good to see another Aussie trader.
Just be careful with oil at the moment, especially with US holiday.
I am just trading within the range of it.
Remember early close today.

Let me know if I can help.

Thanks

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  #83 (permalink)
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Also been having a little trouble trading oil of late.. Been getting chopped most the month except for Thursday last week where I managed to make back losses.. I trade oil exclusively so probably won't step back unless I hit my monthly drawdown.

Another Ozie trader here! Geez we have it bad on the trading hours front.. Do any other Ozie traders struggle to focus at 3 or 4 in the morning or is it just me?
Moving back to Panama in a few weeks so looking forward to the change in trading hours

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  #84 (permalink)
Sydney / Australia
 
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Yes very hard to trade during Commodity Open at 9 am. (1am Sydney time) Just gotta do it I guess.
Only watch till about 3 am. By the end of the week I am stuffed.
However due to Crude's volatility as of late, I am finding decent opportunities during the Asian market sessions.
Oil is a good market you can exclusively trade. All depends on your personality.

I love it!

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  #85 (permalink)
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Skinchin View Post
Also been having a little trouble trading oil of late.. Been getting chopped most the month except for Thursday last week where I managed to make back losses.. I trade oil exclusively so probably won't step back unless I hit my monthly drawdown.

Another Ozie trader here! Geez we have it bad on the trading hours front.. Do any other Ozie traders struggle to focus at 3 or 4 in the morning or is it just me?
Moving back to Panama in a few weeks so looking forward to the change in trading hours

I trade till 1am tops then its bed, Im still on sim tho so less incentive for me. If I go pro then Id probs move out to somewhere in Europe as its just a lot more convenient to trade there. Quick question about Panama, are traders taxed at the 25% income tax there? How do you find living there?

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  #86 (permalink)
Bocas Del Toro, Panama
 
 
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Started trading full time in November so at least I can catch up on sleep and don't have to go work a 9-5. Love everything about trading CL.. Will eventually trade a second instrument once I can split my account with enough capital.
Usually trade from 10pm - 2.30am but will hold a position to the close if required. Fallen asleep several times while trailing positions!

Living in Panama is like living the dream for me! Lived on the caribbean side for over 3 years as my wife is from there and loved every moment.. Its relatively cheap, has great waves, decent diving, safe and plenty of islands to explore so has it all in my eyes..
Didn't trade when I was living there last but from the research I have done foreign income is tax free so shouldn't have to pay any tax. So ticks all the boxes for me! Been back in oz for a couple of years and have been stinging to get back since day one! PM me if you want any info.

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  #87 (permalink)
San Diego, California
 
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I have been trying price action trading on CL but not had success till now.
Can anyone share trading journals/Trading hideouts where futures.io (formerly BMT) users post their daily CL trades??

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  #88 (permalink)
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Go to the thread that is stickied in this sub-forum.

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  #89 (permalink)
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Pretty nasty stuff.

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  #90 (permalink)
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Hi all, I don't seem to find any resource that states the official time for CL overnight/evening session? Here are the times I got from CME site:

Globex: 5:00PM - 4:15PM CT (ETH)
Open outcry: 8:00AM - 1:30PM CT (RTH)

My assumption is, evening session is taken with the context of RTH. So my assumption for the evening session would be:

1:31PM - 4:15PM CT
or
1:31PM - 7:59AM CT

I'm not sure if I am getting this correctly but please let me know what you guys use for overnight session times.

Thanks!

"You are only as good as the decisions you make."
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  #91 (permalink)
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There are two sessions that run concurrent. The Globex session runs "overnight" but continues throughout the day as well. Thus, there is no such thing as "an overnight session".

Also, I've read that the exchange has announced that they will be closing most of the trading pits by mid-year. Thus, the open-outcry session will cease to exist, leaving only a single trading session.

https://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20150204/NEWS01/150209871/cme-to-close-most-futures-pits-in-chicago

James

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  #92 (permalink)
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kurlare View Post
Go to the thread that is stickied in this sub-forum.

Hello Kurlare,
I didn't get that, Do you mean the threads shown as "similar threads"??

thanks

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  #93 (permalink)
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If everyone uses this one it keeps things organized and active.

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  #94 (permalink)
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jerbersoft View Post
Hi all, I don't seem to find any resource that states the official time for CL overnight/evening session? Here are the times I got from CME site:

Globex: 5:00PM - 4:15PM CT (ETH)
Open outcry: 8:00AM - 1:30PM CT (RTH)

My assumption is, evening session is taken with the context of RTH. So my assumption for the evening session would be:

1:31PM - 4:15PM CT
or
1:31PM - 7:59AM CT

I'm not sure if I am getting this correctly but please let me know what you guys use for overnight session times.

Thanks!

I dont think there are any official overnight hours. But I do divide my sessions into 2 and analyze them separately. My overnight session spans from 5 PM to 7:30 AM CT. The rest is RTH in my books.

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  #95 (permalink)
LONDON UK
 
 
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How have you Oil traders got on with the last few days of CL?

Ive found it a bit choppy and light on the "real" volume side.

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  #96 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Houston, TX
 
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xylem View Post
How have you Oil traders got on with the last few days of CL?

Ive found it a bit choppy and light on the "real" volume side.

Hey @xylem

Try this thread, this is the most active and current CL thread. I bet you'll get better answers there.

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