Gold Futures (GC) main discussion - futures io
futures io futures trading



Gold Futures (GC) main discussion


Discussion in Commodities

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one SMCJB with 16 posts (48 thanks)
    2. looks_two Salao with 4 posts (15 thanks)
    3. looks_3 UC Trading with 4 posts (1 thanks)
    4. looks_4 Big Mike with 4 posts (23 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one suko with 6.7 thanks per post
    2. looks_two Big Mike with 5.8 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 Salao with 3.8 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 SMCJB with 3.0 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 5,968 views
    2. thumb_up 154 thanks given
    3. group 27 followers
    1. forum 54 posts
    2. attach_file 12 attachments




Welcome to futures io: the largest futures trading community on the planet, with well over 125,000 members
  • Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
  • Quality education from leading professional traders
  • We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
  • We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

 
Search this Thread
 

Gold Futures (GC) main discussion

(login for full post details)
  #1 (permalink)
Site Administrator,
Data Scientist & DevOps
Manta, Ecuador
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: My own custom solution
Trading: Emini Futures
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 49,317 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 32,007 given, 96,497 received

I couldn't find an existing main thread for gold (?) so here we go.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/goldman-sachs-says-it-is-time-to-buy-gold-the-currency-of-last-resort-2020-03-24

Goldman Sachs says it is time to buy gold — the ‘currency of last resort’

The Goldman analysts, with a 12-month price target of $1800 an ounce, said that is about to change,*thanks to the Federal Reserve’s aggressive bond purchase plan*unveiled on Monday, in which the U.S. central bank said it would buy as many Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities as needed to keep financial markets running smoothly.

The Goldman analysts said gold has been weighed down by a world in need of dollars, requiring forced sales of liquid assets like gold. The downturn in oil*CL**as Saudi Arabia and Russia fail to agree on production cuts has also created dollar shortages for emerging market economies, which may have made Russia a net seller of gold, according to Goldman.

In 2008, the Goldman analysts noted, the November announcement of quantitative easing was a turning point.



Sent using the futures.io mobile app

We're here to help -- just ask

For the best trading education, watch our webinars
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list

Follow us on Twitter, YouTube, and Facebook

Support our community as an Elite Member:
https://futures.io/elite/
Follow me on Twitter Visit my Facebook Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following 7 users say Thank You to Big Mike for this post:

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on futures io?
NT8 connectivity to XFinity / Comcast
NinjaTrader
Market trading data-streaming or gaming in NT8?
NinjaTrader
Pyrapoint by Don Hall information
Traders Hideout
Simple formula from Metastock to Tradingview
Platforms and Indicators
Getting started with OF-Footprint
Traders Hideout
 
Best Threads (Most Thanked)
in the last 7 days on futures io
Big Mike in Ecuador
127 thanks
How did you learn to trade?
103 thanks
2020 profit and loss results
40 thanks
The Small Exchange (www.smallexchange.com)
26 thanks
Is NT8 the right platform for scalping?
26 thanks
 
(login for full post details)
  #2 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Kyoto, Japan
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TW TOS LiveVol
Broker: TD, TW, IB, Saxo
Trading: VXX, VIX, SPY
 
suko's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,303 since Oct 2013
Thanks: 824 given, 1,386 received

Ooohh, this should be good. Thanks for starting it.

In my gameplan the liquidation is not over, there is more downside.

With the next leg down in the market gold futures will be liquidated further, possibly down to $1000, then the big rally to 1800 and beyond will start.

I will be playing this with NUGT weekly options spreads, very small size.


"Persistence is very important. You should not give up unless you are forced to give up." -- Elon Musk
Follow me on Twitter Visit my Facebook Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to suko for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3 (permalink)
Site Administrator,
Data Scientist & DevOps
Manta, Ecuador
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: My own custom solution
Trading: Emini Futures
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 49,317 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 32,007 given, 96,497 received


@tigertrader just made a post illustrating why Gold is the shelter of last resort, and a good bet it will double as a result.

Sent using the futures.io mobile app

We're here to help -- just ask

For the best trading education, watch our webinars
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list

Follow us on Twitter, YouTube, and Facebook

Support our community as an Elite Member:
https://futures.io/elite/
Follow me on Twitter Visit my Facebook Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following 7 users say Thank You to Big Mike for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #4 (permalink)
New York, New York
 
Experience: None
Platform: NT
Broker: IB & Kinetick
Trading: ES
 
elynt's Avatar
 
Posts: 19 since Apr 2014
Thanks: 546 given, 49 received

https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/gold-price-forecast-taking-beating-still-track-new-highs


I agree with the pro-gold thesis, but I'm a bit hesitant to long until we get a break of these 1700 highs (and I will long for certain then). It's possible the shakeout of the weak longs has just concluded, but in my opinion, this is the last technical spot that GC could crush them. My hesitation is largely due to the fact that "buy gold" is mostly what I see on Fintwit, even though it's the fundamentally logical conclusion.

Interesting note - physical gold has outperformed futures for some time. Now that the majority of people picking up on this fact, gold alternatives may start closing the spread.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	ETtzsdFWAAEX1lL.jpg
Views:	146
Size:	64.7 KB
ID:	291576  
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to elynt for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #5 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Montreal, Quebec
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader 8
Broker: Kinetick
Trading: ES
 
JonnyBoy's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,553 since Apr 2012
Thanks: 705 given, 3,705 received


elynt View Post
https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/gold-price-forecast-taking-beating-still-track-new-highs


I agree with the pro-gold thesis, but I'm a bit hesitant to long until we get a break of these 1700 highs (and I will long for certain then). It's possible the shakeout of the weak longs has just concluded, but in my opinion, this is the last technical spot that GC could crush them. My hesitation is largely due to the fact that "buy gold" is mostly what I see on Fintwit, even though it's the fundamentally logical conclusion.

Interesting note - physical gold has outperformed futures for some time. Now that the majority of people picking up on this fact, gold alternatives may start closing the spread.

I love gold and silver and own the physical metal, but I am very disappointed with the performance of Silver over the last decade. I honestly expected a test of the 2011 highs, but it hasn't happened and maybe it never will.

If only the physical market existed for trading, the price would be much, much higher IMO. The paper market does allow for price suppression, one of the reasons why I believe Bitcoin was opened up the masses. Again IMO.

--------------------------------------------------------
- Trade what you see. Invest in what you believe -
--------------------------------------------------------
Reply With Quote
The following 6 users say Thank You to JonnyBoy for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #6 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Kyoto, Japan
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TW TOS LiveVol
Broker: TD, TW, IB, Saxo
Trading: VXX, VIX, SPY
 
suko's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,303 since Oct 2013
Thanks: 824 given, 1,386 received

Wow that was an explosive move by Silver this past week though, huh.

I was pondering buying when it hit the 11 handle but missed it.

These discussions of gold and silver always get around to the gold / silver ratio.

In short there is much, much more upside for silver to get to the all time high.


"Persistence is very important. You should not give up unless you are forced to give up." -- Elon Musk
Follow me on Twitter Visit my Facebook Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following 6 users say Thank You to suko for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #7 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Houston, TX
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Trading Technologies
Broker: Primary Advantage Futures. Also ED&F and Tradestation
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little ES, GE, GC, SI & Bitcoin
 
Posts: 3,781 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 3,059 given, 7,315 received

Comex Gold Futures are currently trading at a significant premium (almost $100/oz) to the spot Gold Market. Rumor is there's a supply squeeze going on with all the (especially Swiss) Gold refiners shut down. Appears that the crux of the problem is that delivery to Comex is 100oz Bars but delivery to LME and the standard in Europe is 400oz bars. Understand there is now a petition to CME to allow delivery of 400oz bars.

CME pushed to change gold delivery rules amid coronavirus lockdown
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/exclusive-cme-pushed-to-change-gold-delivery-rules-amid-coronavirus-lockdown-sources-2020

Reply With Quote
The following 6 users say Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #8 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Houston, TX
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Trading Technologies
Broker: Primary Advantage Futures. Also ED&F and Tradestation
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little ES, GE, GC, SI & Bitcoin
 
Posts: 3,781 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 3,059 given, 7,315 received

SER-8575: Initial Listing of the Gold (Enhanced Delivery) Futures
https://www.cmegroup.com/content/dam/cmegroup/notices/ser/2020/03/SER-8575.pdf

I think the key component to this is that delivery is 100oz or 400oz bars. Wonder whether it will actively trade, or even trade at all, or whether it will just be used as EFRP to the main contract so that people can deliver 400oz bars.

Reply With Quote
The following 6 users say Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #9 (permalink)
Site Administrator,
Data Scientist & DevOps
Manta, Ecuador
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: My own custom solution
Trading: Emini Futures
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 49,317 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 32,007 given, 96,497 received

@SMCJB would you please come on and participate in our webinar series "An Afternoon With".. ?
@tturner86 can schedule it. Say yes

Sent using the futures.io mobile app

We're here to help -- just ask

For the best trading education, watch our webinars
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list

Follow us on Twitter, YouTube, and Facebook

Support our community as an Elite Member:
https://futures.io/elite/
Follow me on Twitter Visit my Facebook Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to Big Mike for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #10 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Houston, TX
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Trading Technologies
Broker: Primary Advantage Futures. Also ED&F and Tradestation
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little ES, GE, GC, SI & Bitcoin
 
Posts: 3,781 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 3,059 given, 7,315 received


1/.
Big Mike View Post
@SMCJB would you please come on and participate in our webinar series "An Afternoon With".. ?

We went through this once before nobody has any interest in watching an old guy stare at spreadsheets! No sexy charts and random line theory going on here! Just massive boring spreadsheets!

2/. As the Gold Futures main discussion, maybe you should sticky this

3/. Interesting blog post from Craig Hemke of Sprott Money about the ongoing CME delivery rumors. I don't know much about Sprott but they are obviously a physical bullion dealer themselves. Also another Sprott company has several Physical Bullion Trusts. So they definitely have a vested interest. I've heard several interviews with their CEO Rick Rule and always been impressed. Anyway....

The CME Opens Pandora's Box by Craig Hemke of Sprott Money (31/03/2020)
https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/the-cme-opens-pandoras-box-craig-hemke.html

I'm not sure I understand his argument. He acts like this is going to cause the Comex contract to fail. Surely if everybody sees this as a way to get their hands on physical gold, but there isn't that much available, instead of the contract failing the price will just scream. It will be like a corner?

4/. That was yesterday and then today this arrived in my inbox...

CME :- Gold market update: healthy gold stocks in New York and London
Gold market update

LBMA and CME Group comment on healthy gold stocks in New York and London

CME Group and LBMA are reaching out to global market participants to ensure they have the latest information and resources, and will continue to coordinate efforts as market circumstances evolve.

Together, both CME Group and LBMA are actively taking measures to ensure the continued efficient operation of global gold markets during this unprecedented time.

LBMA reports record gold stocks

Gold stocks in London remain healthy with the latest published numbers showing record stocks of 8,326 tonnes of gold, which is equivalent to 666,045 standard 400-ounce gold bars. Visit the LBMA website for more information.

Visit LBMA website

CME Group depositories open and gold stocks near record high

CME Group’s New York depositories are operating normally as they have been deemed essential businesses and deliveries are occurring as planned.

As of March 30, 2020, our depositories currently hold 9.2 million ounces of gold (with 5.6 million ounces eligible), nearing a record high in terms of stock levels.

Stock information is updated daily around 3:30 p.m. EST and can be found on our website.

View stocks

New Gold (Enhanced Delivery) futures launching April 6

CME Group is introducing a physically-delivered gold contract with additional delivery and trading functionalities. This contract will enable delivery of 100-ounce, 400-ounce or kilo bar sizes for maximum flexibility.

The contract will also be enabled for inter-commodity spread trading against the GC benchmark gold futures contract, thereby giving existing GC traders efficient access to this new market.

The Gold (Enhanced Delivery) futures FAQ can be viewed below and the Special Executive Report (SER) can be found here.

View FAQ


Nothing to see here. Please move on!

Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #11 (permalink)
Site Administrator,
Data Scientist & DevOps
Manta, Ecuador
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: My own custom solution
Trading: Emini Futures
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 49,317 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 32,007 given, 96,497 received

@SMCJB, thread is now a sticky.

I'll only just say, those spreadsheets are exactly what the webinar should be about. I firmly believe in that type of analytical process for trading. Your webinar could focus on WHY you are just a boring spreadsheet trader. You don't have to disclose your formulas, but you could lean into the discussion on why spreadsheets are so critically important.

So, I just want to ask you once more to reconsider, and look at it from the above approach -- and how to show people there is certainly another way to be a good trader, without a bunch of charts -- and the awesome power of research and analytics in your trading (without a bunch of lines on a chart).

Mike

We're here to help -- just ask

For the best trading education, watch our webinars
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list

Follow us on Twitter, YouTube, and Facebook

Support our community as an Elite Member:
https://futures.io/elite/
Follow me on Twitter Visit my Facebook Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following 6 users say Thank You to Big Mike for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #12 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Chicago
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: Edge Clear
Trading: MES
 
snax's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,460 since Feb 2019
Thanks: 5,830 given, 5,787 received


SMCJB View Post
1/.

We went through this once before nobody has any interest in watching an old guy stare at spreadsheets! No sexy charts and random line theory going on here! Just massive boring spreadsheets!



3/. Interesting blog post from Craig Hemke of Sprott Money about the ongoing CME delivery rumors....



The CME Opens Pandora's Box by Craig Hemke of Sprott Money (31/03/2020)

https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/the-cme-opens-pandoras-box-craig-hemke.html




1) I think many of us would like to hear about your thoughts and experience.

2) almost posted that same article here until i saw you beat me to it. Pretty interesting and shows what little I know right now about how
the gold market really works.


Sent using the futures.io mobile app

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to snax for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #13 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Houston, TX
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Trading Technologies
Broker: Primary Advantage Futures. Also ED&F and Tradestation
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little ES, GE, GC, SI & Bitcoin
 
Posts: 3,781 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 3,059 given, 7,315 received


snax View Post
1) I think many of us would like to hear about your thoughts and experience.

My wife thinks I should write a book. I tell her nobody would read it!

snax View Post
2) almost posted that same article here until i saw you beat me to it. Pretty interesting and shows what little I know right now about how the gold market really works.

I don't understand it either - I don't regularly trade Gold - but I do find all the stories interesting. Who knows which are true!

Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #14 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, TradeStation
Trading: GC, MGC
 
Salao's Avatar
 
Posts: 795 since Jun 2017
Thanks: 6,059 given, 3,279 received

From a technical perspective I could see gold remaining range bound, between 1450 and 1700, for a little while.



Fundamentally I sometimes think of gold as a sentiment indicator for MMT. Not that this informs any of my trades... . Howard Marks recently released one of his memo's, and as always, provides thoughtful analysis of some recent themes in finance. I haven't read the whole thing yet, I usually pour over his memos over a couple of nights, but among the interesting points were:
  • The balancing act between restoring economic activity and stopping the spread of COVID-19.
  • The longer the economy is suppressed, the more difficult it will be to resuscitate. On the other hand, the longer the economy is inactive, the more likely we are to minimize the devastation to human health.
  • MMT is no longer theory, we are living it.

Just a couple bullets. The whole thing is here https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/howard-marks-memos.

Critics of MMT will use the "D" word...debasement, or the dollar losing its reserve currency status. In this memo, HM makes the point that the dollar may not be debased in relation to other currencies. Because everyone (the world) is doing it, which is an interesting point I haven't heard before. In sum, these are uncharted waters and I feel like this could cause some hesitation with gold...if in fact gold is correlated to MMT sentiment in anyway. Which may be a little nutty, but I don't know... .

Reply With Quote
The following 7 users say Thank You to Salao for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #15 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Kyoto, Japan
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TW TOS LiveVol
Broker: TD, TW, IB, Saxo
Trading: VXX, VIX, SPY
 
suko's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,303 since Oct 2013
Thanks: 824 given, 1,386 received


Big Mike View Post
@SMCJB, thread is now a sticky.

So, I just want to ask you once more to reconsider, and look at it from the above approach -- and how to show people there is certainly another way to be a good trader

Mike

IMO what he brings to the table is seasoned trader wisdom.

When I first came to this board he was the only one that gave me the kick in the ass that I needed. Which started a learning process that continues to this day. So I am always all ears as to what he has to say.


"Persistence is very important. You should not give up unless you are forced to give up." -- Elon Musk
Follow me on Twitter Visit my Facebook Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following 9 users say Thank You to suko for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #16 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Houston, TX
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Trading Technologies
Broker: Primary Advantage Futures. Also ED&F and Tradestation
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little ES, GE, GC, SI & Bitcoin
 
Posts: 3,781 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 3,059 given, 7,315 received


suko View Post
IMO what he brings to the table is seasoned trader wisdom.

When I first came to this board he was the only one that gave me the kick in the ass that I needed. Which started a learning process that continues to this day. So I am always all ears as to what he has to say.

You were heading in the wrong direction. All I did was point that out. You were a strong enough person to realize that and to change your ways. All the work was done by you.

Reply With Quote
The following 6 users say Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #17 (permalink)
Site Moderator
Sarasota FL
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: ES, YM
 
bobwest's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,214 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 47,492 given, 20,865 received


SMCJB View Post
My wife thinks I should write a book. I tell her nobody would read it!

Let me second what @Big Mike (and your wife) have said: I will watch your webinar, and so will others. People who read your stuff here will want to know more of what you think. Who cares what form it's in?

OK, that's out of the way, now get on the schedule.

Bob.

When one door closes, another opens.
-- Cervantes, Don Quixote
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following 9 users say Thank You to bobwest for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #18 (permalink)
no drama Llama
Reading UK
 
Experience: None
 
Posts: 1,751 since Oct 2016
Thanks: 2,709 given, 4,911 received


SMCJB View Post
We went through this once before nobody has any interest in watching an old guy stare at spreadsheets! No sexy charts and random line theory going on here! Just massive boring spreadsheets!

I most definitely will watch it. Guaranteed I will learn something from you that I did not know before.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to Grantx for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #19 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, TradeStation
Trading: GC, MGC
 
Salao's Avatar
 
Posts: 795 since Jun 2017
Thanks: 6,059 given, 3,279 received

"Cash is Trash." Comments from The Ray Dalio for a reddit AMA:


Quoting 
“Please remember that while it doesn’t move around in value as much as other assets, there is a costly negative return to it,” the billionaire investor said during a Reddit Ask Me Anything event on Tuesday. “So I still think that cash is trash relative to other alternatives, particularly those that will retain their value or increase their value during reflationary periods (e.g., some gold and some stocks).”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-07/dalio-still-thinks-cash-is-trash-as-printing-presses-roll?sref=HJ5vRDOD

Gold still seems range bound to me...


Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Salao for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #20 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Houston, TX
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Trading Technologies
Broker: Primary Advantage Futures. Also ED&F and Tradestation
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little ES, GE, GC, SI & Bitcoin
 
Posts: 3,781 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 3,059 given, 7,315 received

"Cash maybe Trash" (especially in an inflationary period) but "Liquidity is King". Difficult balancing the two. Right now I have a lot of cash hoping that there will be more bargains for those that have liquidity,

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #21 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Houston, TX
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Trading Technologies
Broker: Primary Advantage Futures. Also ED&F and Tradestation
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little ES, GE, GC, SI & Bitcoin
 
Posts: 3,781 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 3,059 given, 7,315 received

Margin rates for Gold going up effective April 14th.
Initial (Maintenance) Margin increases from 9185 (8350) to 10065 (9150)

https://www.cmegroup.com/notices/clearing/2020/04/Chadv20-153.html

Reply With Quote
The following 6 users say Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #22 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Houston, TX
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Trading Technologies
Broker: Primary Advantage Futures. Also ED&F and Tradestation
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little ES, GE, GC, SI & Bitcoin
 
Posts: 3,781 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 3,059 given, 7,315 received

And after last months 'Gold Delivery Rumors' we now have this...
Gold Market Update

Spot Month Position Limits to Increase for Gold Futures

Effective at the close of trading May 28, 2020 for the June 2020 contract month and beyond, spot month position limits will be increased for five gold futures and options contracts, going up from 3,000 to 6,000 futures contract equivalents.

In addition, the single and all-month accountability levels will be raised from 6,000 to 8,000 futures contract equivalents. Spot month limits and accountability levels in the April 2020 and May 2020 contract months will be unchanged. For the full text of this notice, please consult https://www.cmegroup.com/.
I couldn't easily find the full notice on the website though

Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #23 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, TradeStation
Trading: GC, MGC
 
Salao's Avatar
 
Posts: 795 since Jun 2017
Thanks: 6,059 given, 3,279 received



Pretty bullish leg up to near the high of the two-month trading range. It seems pretty tough to remain a gold bull after today's weak close. Seems likely there are sellers below the low of today, but it will be interesting if we get a rally over today's bar. The globexers made a brief go of it, but bears took over. Not sure why I'm posting, other than to dust off this ol' gold thread. ()

Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to Salao for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #24 (permalink)
Vancouver, BC Canada
 
 
Posts: 6 since Oct 2018
Thanks: 4 given, 4 received

I've heard rumours of gold hitting $3000 in the next year. Apparently several nations banks do not have enough on hand to back requests for people wanting to take physical possession of their gold.
Be interesting to see what happens.
In the short-term I'm bullish. Thinking $1900 in the next 4 months.

Mark

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to futurestradermark for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #25 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Houston, TX
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Trading Technologies
Broker: Primary Advantage Futures. Also ED&F and Tradestation
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little ES, GE, GC, SI & Bitcoin
 
Posts: 3,781 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 3,059 given, 7,315 received

Fake Gold !!

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Caixin/Mystery-of-2bn-of-loans-backed-by-fake-gold-in-China

More than a dozen Chinese financial institutions, mainly trust companies, loaned 20 billion yuan ($2.8 billion) over the past five years to Wuhan Kingold Jewelry Inc. with pure gold as collateral and insurance policies to cover any losses.

...

What could go wrong?

Well, plenty, as at least some of 83 tons of gold bars used as collateral turned out to be nothing but gilded copper.

Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #26 (permalink)
Munich, Germany
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: liquid products
 
Schnook's Avatar
 
Posts: 415 since Jul 2016
Thanks: 814 given, 1,451 received


SMCJB View Post
Fake Gold !!

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Caixin/Mystery-of-2bn-of-loans-backed-by-fake-gold-in-China

More than a dozen Chinese financial institutions, mainly trust companies, loaned 20 billion yuan ($2.8 billion) over the past five years to Wuhan Kingold Jewelry Inc. with pure gold as collateral and insurance policies to cover any losses.

I feel like this story says more about the corrupt and fraud-ridden Chinese credit and banking system than it does about gold.

I often wonder if or when that massive Chinese debt pile will ever collapse. Reserves ain't what they used to be...

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Schnook for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #27 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Houston, TX
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Trading Technologies
Broker: Primary Advantage Futures. Also ED&F and Tradestation
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little ES, GE, GC, SI & Bitcoin
 
Posts: 3,781 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 3,059 given, 7,315 received

Agree don't think it says anything about gold.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #28 (permalink)
Frankfurt, Germany
 
 
Posts: 15 since Apr 2020
Thanks: 1 given, 6 received

Hi everybody,

let's have a look at the gold market.. The analysis is based on the the weekly market profile in combination with the candle stick chart.

The past one and a half week, the gold market was moving in range with its border at levels around 1796.50 USD respectively 1817 USD. As a result, the market created an inside week illustrating uncertainty about the further price direction.

Candle Stick Chart Range


The market performed a strong long push on Friday and also the market profile shows larger participation and, consequently, interest in the upper range which may be an indicator for preferred trades on the long side.

Market Profile View


Nevertheless, both trade directions must be considered. Taking the long perspective (1), the price may break the upper range border with a first target at the previous’ weeks high. In contrast taking a short perspective (2), the market could illustrate weakness targeting the range low or even the previous’ week low. In both cases, the range borders illustrate interesting levels since large market participants are looking for liquidity which they find at those significant levels.

Let's see where it goes..

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to UC Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #29 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Montreal, Quebec
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader 8
Broker: Kinetick
Trading: ES
 
JonnyBoy's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,553 since Apr 2012
Thanks: 705 given, 3,705 received


UC Trading View Post
Hi everybody,

let's have a look at the gold market.. The analysis is based on the the weekly market profile in combination with the candle stick chart.

The past one and a half week, the gold market was moving in range with its border at levels around 1796.50 USD respectively 1817 USD. As a result, the market created an inside week illustrating uncertainty about the further price direction.

Candle Stick Chart Range


The market performed a strong long push on Friday and also the market profile shows larger participation and, consequently, interest in the upper range which may be an indicator for preferred trades on the long side.

Market Profile View


Nevertheless, both trade directions must be considered. Taking the long perspective (1), the price may break the upper range border with a first target at the previous’ weeks high. In contrast taking a short perspective (2), the market could illustrate weakness targeting the range low or even the previous’ week low. In both cases, the range borders illustrate interesting levels since large market participants are looking for liquidity which they find at those significant levels.

Let's see where it goes..

Gold certainly has support in the 1675-1700 zone which so far has held. IMO new historical highs lie ahead with the first step up to 1923 and the second to 2150. For Silver, it looks like the 12.50 downside target ended the long silver bear market. Next upside target is 25.00.

Just my musings.

--------------------------------------------------------
- Trade what you see. Invest in what you believe -
--------------------------------------------------------
Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #30 (permalink)
Frankfurt, Germany
 
 
Posts: 15 since Apr 2020
Thanks: 1 given, 6 received


UC Trading View Post
Hi everybody,

let's have a look at the gold market.. The analysis is based on the the weekly market profile in combination with the candle stick chart.

The past one and a half week, the gold market was moving in range with its border at levels around 1796.50 USD respectively 1817 USD. As a result, the market created an inside week illustrating uncertainty about the further price direction.

Candle Stick Chart Range


The market performed a strong long push on Friday and also the market profile shows larger participation and, consequently, interest in the upper range which may be an indicator for preferred trades on the long side.

Market Profile View


Nevertheless, both trade directions must be considered. Taking the long perspective (1), the price may break the upper range border with a first target at the previous’ weeks high. In contrast taking a short perspective (2), the market could illustrate weakness targeting the range low or even the previous’ week low. In both cases, the range borders illustrate interesting levels since large market participants are looking for liquidity which they find at those significant levels.

Let's see where it goes..

RECAP

Yesterday, the gold price moved back into its Thursday range during the Asia session. A buyer defended the range and pushed the market in the long direction reaching the first target at the weekly range (1) top. The market got very volatile with the US opening but maintained buyer strength where the range top now functioned as a support level confirming the preferred long direction.

Candle Stick Chart Range


Similarly, the market profile illustrates the situation in a broader perspective. The price reached the week’s top (3) and broke it but could not yet reach the second target level at previous’ week high (4)

Market Profile View

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #31 (permalink)
Frankfurt, Germany
 
 
Posts: 15 since Apr 2020
Thanks: 1 given, 6 received


UC Trading View Post
RECAP

Yesterday, the gold price moved back into its Thursday range during the Asia session. A buyer defended the range and pushed the market in the long direction reaching the first target at the weekly range (1) top. The market got very volatile with the US opening but maintained buyer strength where the range top now functioned as a support level confirming the preferred long direction.

Candle Stick Chart Range


Similarly, the market profile illustrates the situation in a broader perspective. The price reached the week’s top (3) and broke it but could not yet reach the second target level at previous’ week high (4)

Market Profile View

Follow Up

Today, the gold market continued to illustrate buyer strength pushing to the upper range border (2) while reaching the target level during the EU session. Subsequently, the market showed further buyer dominance and sellers got kicked out of the market resulting in a strong long breakout.

Market Profile View

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #32 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Houston, TX
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Trading Technologies
Broker: Primary Advantage Futures. Also ED&F and Tradestation
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little ES, GE, GC, SI & Bitcoin
 
Posts: 3,781 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 3,059 given, 7,315 received

@UC Trading Maybe you should start a journal.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #33 (permalink)
Frankfurt, Germany
 
 
Posts: 15 since Apr 2020
Thanks: 1 given, 6 received


SMCJB View Post
@UC Trading Maybe you should start a journal.

I did start a journal earlier but got blocked because I stated being a vendor when I signed up for this community and posting trades is apparently prohibited for vendors.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #34 (permalink)
Chino Valley AZ
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: Emini ES
 
GarySeven's Avatar
 
Posts: 8 since Aug 2019
Thanks: 0 given, 4 received


UC Trading View Post
I did start a journal earlier but got blocked because I stated being a vendor when I signed up for this community and posting trades is apparently prohibited for vendors.

I don't read the journals but I do read in here so I liked your commentary UC.

I don't talk much but I had the same look on my charts.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #35 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, TradeStation
Trading: GC, MGC
 
Salao's Avatar
 
Posts: 795 since Jun 2017
Thanks: 6,059 given, 3,279 received

I have never really completely understood the fundamentals that move gold. Earlier this year GC seemed inversely correlated with DX, at other times there was direct correlation. Sometimes there seems to be inverse correlation to equities (the 'haven bid'), other times it has moved with equities. Rising national deficits, perma-low interest rates, and/or banking system concerns...those kind of concerns generally move gold. So there seems to be a special kind of fear that moves GC. At any rate (accidental pun ), I was interested in reading other's thoughts on this.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Salao for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #36 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Penetanguishene, Ontario, Canada
 
Experience: None
Platform: NinjaTrader-8
Broker: NinjaTrader Brokerage, Continuum
Trading: ZB, MES, NQ, YM
 
TopGunNote's Avatar
 
Posts: 820 since Jun 2011
Thanks: 3,038 given, 3,164 received


Salao View Post
I have never really completely understood the fundamentals that move gold. Earlier this year GC seemed inversely correlated with DX, at other times there was direct correlation. Sometimes there seems to be inverse correlation to equities (the 'haven bid'), other times it has moved with equities. Rising national deficits, perma-low interest rates, and/or banking system concerns...those kind of concerns generally move gold. So there seems to be a special kind of fear that moves GC. At any rate (accidental pun ), I was interested in reading other's thoughts on this.


I've always subscribed to the "haven bid" concept you mentioned,


"aggressive monetary policy financing of fiscal spending,
which limits the ability of bond yields to rise,
that in-turn is sending inflation-adjusted, or real, yields lower,
which tends to boost the bid for precious metals"


Here's a link to a Point/Counterpoint article discussing the "Case for Silver" during this recent price run up in precious metals.

https://ca.investing.com/news/commodities-news/pointcounterpoint-the-case-for-silver-2204618?ampMode=1


It's not a "be all" answer to your question, but it does outline some interesting differences between the "Precious Metals" that hadn't occurred to me.

Trade well,
John B.

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to TopGunNote for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #37 (permalink)
Detroit, MI
 
 
Posts: 22 since May 2020
Thanks: 9 given, 20 received


TopGunNote View Post
I've always subscribed to the "haven bid" concept you mentioned,


"aggressive monetary policy financing of fiscal spending,
which limits the ability of bond yields to rise,
that in-turn is sending inflation-adjusted, or real, yields lower,
which tends to boost the bid for precious metals"


Here's a link to a Point/Counterpoint article discussing the "Case for Silver" during this recent price run up in precious metals.

https://ca.investing.com/news/commodities-news/pointcounterpoint-the-case-for-silver-2204618?ampMode=1


It's not a "be all" answer to your question, but it does outline some interesting differences between the "Precious Metals" that hadn't occurred to me.

Trade well,
John B.

I have blogged about the fundamentals of gold as I have been buying and selling gold and silver coins for over a decade. I have never lost money doing this. I have lost money on futures, but mainly because of margin call. So, I have since reduced my exposure and have remained profitable.

I'll share some insights that many ignore, but really shouldn't. First, gold is to hold. Silver is for trading. This is extremely important. Second, gold and silver take their orders from the spot markets. Know the spot markets to know gold and silver.

Third, when investors are the top buyers, know that we're in a bubble. As of April, investors became the top buyers. This tells me that this cannot last. I don't know how long it will last, but it will fall. Also know that the largest buyers of gold are in China and India. Their demand has plummeted since COVID-19. I am riding this bull market, but realize that a peak will occur and it will precede a spectacular fall.

Finally and probably most importantly, do not fall for the inflation myth. Gold does not protect against inflation unless it is hyper/mass inflation on the verge of a currency crisis like Turkey/Venezuela. If gold protected against inflation, why did the price plummet after 1980 for 20 years? Based on the 1980 high, gold still has at least another $1000 to go before it reaches inflation adjusted all time highs. Hence, gold is insurance against a poorly managed economy with an out of control central bank.

Conclusion: Gold fever is here. The smart money bought $300 after it already moved. Paul Tudor Jones was recommending in 2019 when it was $1300 an ounce. In March, everybody had one last shot at getting the $1400 price. Personally, I think gold will drop once the supply picks up. With the gold coin mints not producing in the US until at least September, the shortage may prolong the bull run. However, long term the ETFs have to keep buying enough to make up for the jewelry buyers. I just don't see how that is possible in the long run.

There is also a very real chance that a central bank could unload a large chunk of gold ala the English central bank in the 1990s that could very well be the trigger to pop this bubble.

Long term, I'm bullish on gold, but short term, I'm ready for a significant dip.

Reply With Quote
The following 8 users say Thank You to petergunz for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #38 (permalink)
Zurich
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 48 since Jun 2011
Thanks: 31 given, 10 received


petergunz View Post

Third, when investors are the top buyers, know that we're in a bubble. As of April, investors became the top buyers. This tells me that this cannot last. I don't know how long it will last, but it will fall. Also know that the largest buyers of gold are in China and India. Their demand has plummeted since COVID-19. I am riding this bull market, but realize that a peak will occur and it will precede a spectacular fall.

Finally and probably most importantly, do not fall for the inflation myth. Gold does not protect against inflation unless it is hyper/mass inflation on the verge of a currency crisis like Turkey/Venezuela. If gold protected against inflation, why did the price plummet after 1980 for 20 years? Based on the 1980 high, gold still has at least another $1000 to go before it reaches inflation adjusted all time highs. Hence, gold is insurance against a poorly managed economy with an out of control central bank.


Finally, a gold bug who actually is making sense. One can be bullish on gold all he wants, but how can one not see how overstretched these prices are.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to swisstrader321 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #39 (permalink)
Australia
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Tradovate, SierraChart
Broker: Tradovate, AMP(CQG)
Trading: ES, MES
 
Posts: 29 since Mar 2019
Thanks: 6 given, 24 received

Hi all, does anyone here day-trade/scalp the GC?

If so, what do you use to guide you?

Delta seems unhelpful due to the low volume/DOM depth. It seems to me that there may be something in looking at the volume profiles but i have found it to be a bit hit and miss so far (but maybe I am not doing it right).

So far I have been fading large/fast moves in price and also range edges but again, it doesn't seem overly consistent.

Someone mentioned pivot points but I have not managed to get anything useful out of the daily pivot point SierraChart study. Someone else mentioned Floor Pivots but I haven't found any SC study for that.

Does anyone have any pointers, tips, suggestions, etc.?

Cheers

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to ales19 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #40 (permalink)
Johor, Malaysia
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: CL, GC
 
Posts: 186 since Oct 2013
Thanks: 1,236 given, 187 received


ales19 View Post
Hi all, does anyone here day-trade/scalp the GC?


Does anyone have any pointers, tips, suggestions, etc.?

Cheers

Just understand that the slippage is pretty huge for GC, even during not so volatile time. Sudden spike, you can easily slipped 20ticks.

Sleep well, Eat Healthy, Breathe...
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to mykee for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #41 (permalink)
Australia
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Tradovate, SierraChart
Broker: Tradovate, AMP(CQG)
Trading: ES, MES
 
Posts: 29 since Mar 2019
Thanks: 6 given, 24 received


mykee View Post
Just understand that the slippage is pretty huge for GC, even during not so volatile time. Sudden spike, you can easily slipped 20ticks.

yes, it seems to behave sort of like NQ, but not as erratic (I guess it is due to the higher DOM depth), which is advantageous if you think you made a mistake as it does revisit prices quite often.

in any case I take it that what you are trying to tell me is that GC is best played on a slightly longer time scale than a few seconds/minutes?

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #42 (permalink)
Johor, Malaysia
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: CL, GC
 
Posts: 186 since Oct 2013
Thanks: 1,236 given, 187 received


ales19 View Post
in any case I take it that what you are trying to tell me is that GC is best played on a slightly longer time scale than a few seconds/minutes?

Everyone trade differently. If it suits your style and it works, you could get quick profit. Just understand that when it goes against you, it could be fast, and it hurts as much if not more.

Sleep well, Eat Healthy, Breathe...
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to mykee for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #43 (permalink)
Irvine, CA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Charts
Broker: AMP Futures, Denali
Trading: ES, SI, GC, CL
 
Posts: 15 since Apr 2019
Thanks: 11 given, 10 received

Been trading Silver about 95% of the time and the rest GC this past summer because ES was a slow mover. I been basically using GC and Equities to correlate the SI moves. Also watching USDX. Metals kind of being in a funk back to balance and look for the catalyst move to take advantage of. There's seems to be alot of anticipation for both SI and GC so I've been keeping it up on my radar. Posting my chart from last week. Note the larger moves.



Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #44 (permalink)
Detroit, MI
 
 
Posts: 22 since May 2020
Thanks: 9 given, 20 received


swisstrader321 View Post
Finally, a gold bug who actually is making sense. One can be bullish on gold all he wants, but how can one not see how overstretched these prices are.

Thanks. I am a gold bug, but I also am a reality bug.

It seems that ETF inflows picked up in September and gold has showed bullish signs after a big decline. However, in the past few weeks there has been what appears to be a dead cat bounce after the double top at the beginning of September. I trade silver, but use gold to get an idea of direction.

Given that silver has not reached all time highs, this is clearly a fear based bull market. China and India have picked up demand, but weddings in India are still banned due to COVID-19. I believe the ban was set to end sometime in September, but I think they have been extended (I don't know for sure).

In short, gold may go up due to a panic, but until there is a re-opening of the economy it is doubtful that the metals will take off. I think once the economy opens up, the metals will soar. That's exactly what happened to silver in May. At least, that's how it appeared when I started tracking it. What I remember most is that silver took off as soon as the exchange lowered margin requirements so I am also looking for that to happen although it may not.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to petergunz for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #45 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Houston, TX
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Trading Technologies
Broker: Primary Advantage Futures. Also ED&F and Tradestation
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little ES, GE, GC, SI & Bitcoin
 
Posts: 3,781 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 3,059 given, 7,315 received

The more money central banks print, the more attractive gold becomes. IMO if gold is going to see the prices many are now talking about it won't be because retail demand it will be because institutional portfolios increase their gold weightings. Even a small shift in their portfolio's equates to large change in gold demand.

Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #46 (permalink)
Seattle, WA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TOS
Trading: ES, MES, Options
 
Posts: 3 since May 2020
Thanks: 2 given, 0 received

Hello, does anyone know what the next active contract will be for /GC in ThinkOrSwim? I'm hoping not to call in to TD to find out or wait... maybe someone knows what the process is?

:-)

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #47 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Houston, TX
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Trading Technologies
Broker: Primary Advantage Futures. Also ED&F and Tradestation
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little ES, GE, GC, SI & Bitcoin
 
Posts: 3,781 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 3,059 given, 7,315 received

Not sure about TD specifically but when people stop trading Dec20, the most liquid contract will be Feb21. Today Dec has already traded 300k contracts, and Feb has traded 100K. No other month has traded more than 6k contracts.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #48 (permalink)
Seattle, WA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TOS
Trading: ES, MES, Options
 
Posts: 3 since May 2020
Thanks: 2 given, 0 received

Hi, thanks for your response! Yes, I was assuming it was going to be Feb based off of the volumes but didn't know for certain as yet.

I got the following email and am figuring out whether to roll earlier or not...so decided to check w some experts on the forum. If you have any experiences in rollover, I'd very much appreciate an advice.


Quoting 
Hello,
You are receiving this e-mail as a result of activity in Gold Futures,Dec-2020, ETH (/GCZ20) in your account ****.
Due to the upcoming delivery period, TD Ameritrade requires you to close or roll your position prior to the close of electronic trading on Wednesday November 25 2020 by 4:00 p.m. Central Time.
If you do not close or roll your position by this time, it is subject to liquidation any time thereafter. Failure to address delivery risk in your account will result in a restriction to closing only status.
Please note, if the expiring contract is a part of a futures calendar spread, the entire position may be liquidated. Also, if you are trading options on futures, the above notice may apply to you should any position be exercised or assigned.
Please refer to your customer agreement for more information:
"TD Ameritrade does not allow for futures contracts to be settled with physical delivery of a commodity nor does TD Ameritrade allow for positions to be held on or after First Notice Day.
Client is required to close or roll Client's positions to the next active month prior to First Notice Day.
While any positions can be liquidated at the discretion or the TD Ameritrade Risk Department at any time and without prior notice, open positions (regardless of whether they are long or short) in physically delivered products will be liquidated before First Notice Day or Last Trade Date, whichever occurs first.
If funds, documents, or instructions are not received, TD Ameritrade may, without notice, close out such positions without additional prior notification."

Please email FuturesMargins@thinkorswim.com should you have any questions about these expiring contracts or how to close/roll your position.
Thanks for your attention!


Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #49 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Houston, TX
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Trading Technologies
Broker: Primary Advantage Futures. Also ED&F and Tradestation
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little ES, GE, GC, SI & Bitcoin
 
Posts: 3,781 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 3,059 given, 7,315 received

The Dec contract doesn't expire until 29-Dec but first delivery day is 27-Nov. So if you have a Dec position after 27-Nov you could be required to make or take delivery. Hence why anybody who doesn't have gold in the warehouse gets out before first delivery date.

As for rolling....
Dec/Feb is 6.25c which is 3.125c/month
Dec/Apr is 10.35c which is 2.5875c/month
Dec/Jun is 13.35c which is 2.225c/month
Dec/Dec is 21.95c which is 1.83c/month
So if your buying and holding the further you roll back the cheaper it is 'per month'. If your trading then maybe Feb is best as it will have the most liquidity but saying that Dec21 is a 1 tick wide market most of the time as well. It just doesn't trade much.

I rolled my heavily underwater length back to Dec21 as I think this is a position I will have for a while.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #50 (permalink)
Seattle, WA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TOS
Trading: ES, MES, Options
 
Posts: 3 since May 2020
Thanks: 2 given, 0 received

Thanks SMCJB for your great responses. I think I will be moving my positions out quite further as well.

As a side note I called TD and they confirmed they will switch to Feb as active contract after the close today.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #51 (permalink)
Europe
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeNavigator, BookMap
Trading: ES, CL, 6E, 6B
 
Posts: 423 since Jan 2017
Thanks: 0 given, 371 received


walksonair View Post
Thanks SMCJB for your great responses. I think I will be moving my positions out quite further as well.

As a side note I called TD and they confirmed they will switch to Feb as active contract after the close today.

Gold rolls each 2 month (except Oct contract, I could never find out why nobody or less traders trade the Oct contract, but the Aug contract rolls to Dec instead to Oct) between there some other contracts (I guess for commercials, but not for retail traders, so for retail-trader the following month are available: 2, 4, 6, 8, 12

You should always trade the contract with the most volume, further information about volume and other questions you can always find on the CME homepage: https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/gold_quotes_globex.html

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to tr8er for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #52 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Houston, TX
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Trading Technologies
Broker: Primary Advantage Futures. Also ED&F and Tradestation
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little ES, GE, GC, SI & Bitcoin
 
Posts: 3,781 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 3,059 given, 7,315 received

Being an energy trader where they list every month I've always found the listed/active months strange in some commodities. Silver is different again. HKNUZ.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #53 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Zaner360, TWS, Vantage
Broker: DeCarley, IAB, RJO
Trading: Commodities
 
Posts: 1,742 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 2,834 given, 2,345 received


SMCJB View Post
Being an energy trader where they list every month I've always found the listed/active months strange in some commodities. Silver is different again. HKNUZ.

There are other nice examples:

Feeder Cattle F H J K Q U V X
Live Cattle G J M Q V Z

Corn, Wheat H K N U Z
Rice F H K N U X F

I am sure there are good reasons, which have to do with the annual cycle of the animals or the grains, respectively. But I have no idea.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to myrrdin for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #54 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Houston, TX
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Trading Technologies
Broker: Primary Advantage Futures. Also ED&F and Tradestation
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little ES, GE, GC, SI & Bitcoin
 
Posts: 3,781 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 3,059 given, 7,315 received

Financials (HMUZ) I get. No need for more granularity than that.

Grains I understand that its obviously seasonal and lines up with production. Need grain in June well its just May plus Storage. In fact I believe the grains contracts actually have storage rates built into them.

But what about Meats? Slaughter houses are operational 24 hrs a day, 365 days a year. How do you hedge months that don't have listed contracts?

Gold and Silver (and Currencies), while only listing some months on a forward basis, do list contracts for the first three months. So while Z and G have been listed for a long time F has only been listed for a few months, and when Z expires they will add H. Then we will have FGHJ and all the standard months. This adds the granularity you need if your in the wholesale market and need to hedge off cycle months. (Eurodollars is similar, 10 years of HMUZ plus prompt 4 months. Crude used to be like this as well. 7 years of M and Z only and then 3 years of every month but a couple of years ago they went to 10 years of every single month!)

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #55 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Zaner360, TWS, Vantage
Broker: DeCarley, IAB, RJO
Trading: Commodities
 
Posts: 1,742 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 2,834 given, 2,345 received


SMCJB View Post

But what about Meats? Slaughter houses are operational 24 hrs a day, 365 days a year. How do you hedge months that don't have listed contracts?


The only way to hedge meats for months without listed future contracts is via options.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Reply With Quote


futures io Trading Community Traders Hideout Commodities > Gold Futures (GC) main discussion


Last Updated on November 28, 2020


Upcoming Webinars and Events
 

Journal Challenge!

February
 

Battlestations!

March
     



Copyright © 2021 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts