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Gold Futures (GC) main discussion

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  #1 (permalink)
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I couldn't find an existing main thread for gold (?) so here we go.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/goldman-sachs-says-it-is-time-to-buy-gold-the-currency-of-last-resort-2020-03-24

Goldman Sachs says it is time to buy gold — the ‘currency of last resort’

The Goldman analysts, with a 12-month price target of $1800 an ounce, said that is about to change,*thanks to the Federal Reserve’s aggressive bond purchase plan*unveiled on Monday, in which the U.S. central bank said it would buy as many Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities as needed to keep financial markets running smoothly.

The Goldman analysts said gold has been weighed down by a world in need of dollars, requiring forced sales of liquid assets like gold. The downturn in oil*CL**as Saudi Arabia and Russia fail to agree on production cuts has also created dollar shortages for emerging market economies, which may have made Russia a net seller of gold, according to Goldman.

In 2008, the Goldman analysts noted, the November announcement of quantitative easing was a turning point.



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Ooohh, this should be good. Thanks for starting it.

In my gameplan the liquidation is not over, there is more downside.

With the next leg down in the market gold futures will be liquidated further, possibly down to $1000, then the big rally to 1800 and beyond will start.

I will be playing this with NUGT weekly options spreads, very small size.


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@tigertrader just made a post illustrating why Gold is the shelter of last resort, and a good bet it will double as a result.

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https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/gold-price-forecast-taking-beating-still-track-new-highs


I agree with the pro-gold thesis, but I'm a bit hesitant to long until we get a break of these 1700 highs (and I will long for certain then). It's possible the shakeout of the weak longs has just concluded, but in my opinion, this is the last technical spot that GC could crush them. My hesitation is largely due to the fact that "buy gold" is mostly what I see on Fintwit, even though it's the fundamentally logical conclusion.

Interesting note - physical gold has outperformed futures for some time. Now that the majority of people picking up on this fact, gold alternatives may start closing the spread.

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elynt View Post
https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/gold-price-forecast-taking-beating-still-track-new-highs


I agree with the pro-gold thesis, but I'm a bit hesitant to long until we get a break of these 1700 highs (and I will long for certain then). It's possible the shakeout of the weak longs has just concluded, but in my opinion, this is the last technical spot that GC could crush them. My hesitation is largely due to the fact that "buy gold" is mostly what I see on Fintwit, even though it's the fundamentally logical conclusion.

Interesting note - physical gold has outperformed futures for some time. Now that the majority of people picking up on this fact, gold alternatives may start closing the spread.

I love gold and silver and own the physical metal, but I am very disappointed with the performance of Silver over the last decade. I honestly expected a test of the 2011 highs, but it hasn't happened and maybe it never will.

If only the physical market existed for trading, the price would be much, much higher IMO. The paper market does allow for price suppression, one of the reasons why I believe Bitcoin was opened up the masses. Again IMO.

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Wow that was an explosive move by Silver this past week though, huh.

I was pondering buying when it hit the 11 handle but missed it.

These discussions of gold and silver always get around to the gold / silver ratio.

In short there is much, much more upside for silver to get to the all time high.


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Comex Gold Futures are currently trading at a significant premium (almost $100/oz) to the spot Gold Market. Rumor is there's a supply squeeze going on with all the (especially Swiss) Gold refiners shut down. Appears that the crux of the problem is that delivery to Comex is 100oz Bars but delivery to LME and the standard in Europe is 400oz bars. Understand there is now a petition to CME to allow delivery of 400oz bars.

CME pushed to change gold delivery rules amid coronavirus lockdown
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/exclusive-cme-pushed-to-change-gold-delivery-rules-amid-coronavirus-lockdown-sources-2020

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SER-8575: Initial Listing of the Gold (Enhanced Delivery) Futures
https://www.cmegroup.com/content/dam/cmegroup/notices/ser/2020/03/SER-8575.pdf

I think the key component to this is that delivery is 100oz or 400oz bars. Wonder whether it will actively trade, or even trade at all, or whether it will just be used as EFRP to the main contract so that people can deliver 400oz bars.

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@SMCJB would you please come on and participate in our webinar series "An Afternoon With".. ?
@tturner86 can schedule it. Say yes

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1/.
Big Mike View Post
@SMCJB would you please come on and participate in our webinar series "An Afternoon With".. ?

We went through this once before nobody has any interest in watching an old guy stare at spreadsheets! No sexy charts and random line theory going on here! Just massive boring spreadsheets!

2/. As the Gold Futures main discussion, maybe you should sticky this

3/. Interesting blog post from Craig Hemke of Sprott Money about the ongoing CME delivery rumors. I don't know much about Sprott but they are obviously a physical bullion dealer themselves. Also another Sprott company has several Physical Bullion Trusts. So they definitely have a vested interest. I've heard several interviews with their CEO Rick Rule and always been impressed. Anyway....

The CME Opens Pandora's Box by Craig Hemke of Sprott Money (31/03/2020)
https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/the-cme-opens-pandoras-box-craig-hemke.html

I'm not sure I understand his argument. He acts like this is going to cause the Comex contract to fail. Surely if everybody sees this as a way to get their hands on physical gold, but there isn't that much available, instead of the contract failing the price will just scream. It will be like a corner?

4/. That was yesterday and then today this arrived in my inbox...

CME :- Gold market update: healthy gold stocks in New York and London
Gold market update

LBMA and CME Group comment on healthy gold stocks in New York and London

CME Group and LBMA are reaching out to global market participants to ensure they have the latest information and resources, and will continue to coordinate efforts as market circumstances evolve.

Together, both CME Group and LBMA are actively taking measures to ensure the continued efficient operation of global gold markets during this unprecedented time.

LBMA reports record gold stocks

Gold stocks in London remain healthy with the latest published numbers showing record stocks of 8,326 tonnes of gold, which is equivalent to 666,045 standard 400-ounce gold bars. Visit the LBMA website for more information.

Visit LBMA website

CME Group depositories open and gold stocks near record high

CME Group’s New York depositories are operating normally as they have been deemed essential businesses and deliveries are occurring as planned.

As of March 30, 2020, our depositories currently hold 9.2 million ounces of gold (with 5.6 million ounces eligible), nearing a record high in terms of stock levels.

Stock information is updated daily around 3:30 p.m. EST and can be found on our website.

View stocks

New Gold (Enhanced Delivery) futures launching April 6

CME Group is introducing a physically-delivered gold contract with additional delivery and trading functionalities. This contract will enable delivery of 100-ounce, 400-ounce or kilo bar sizes for maximum flexibility.

The contract will also be enabled for inter-commodity spread trading against the GC benchmark gold futures contract, thereby giving existing GC traders efficient access to this new market.

The Gold (Enhanced Delivery) futures FAQ can be viewed below and the Special Executive Report (SER) can be found here.

View FAQ


Nothing to see here. Please move on!

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