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Gold Futures (GC) main discussion

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  #41 (permalink)
 ales19 
Australia
 
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mykee View Post
Just understand that the slippage is pretty huge for GC, even during not so volatile time. Sudden spike, you can easily slipped 20ticks.

yes, it seems to behave sort of like NQ, but not as erratic (I guess it is due to the higher DOM depth), which is advantageous if you think you made a mistake as it does revisit prices quite often.

in any case I take it that what you are trying to tell me is that GC is best played on a slightly longer time scale than a few seconds/minutes?

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  #42 (permalink)
 mykee 
Johor, Malaysia
 
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ales19 View Post
in any case I take it that what you are trying to tell me is that GC is best played on a slightly longer time scale than a few seconds/minutes?

Everyone trade differently. If it suits your style and it works, you could get quick profit. Just understand that when it goes against you, it could be fast, and it hurts as much if not more.

Sleep well, Eat Healthy, Breathe...
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  #43 (permalink)
 TraderGee 
Irvine, CA
 
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Been trading Silver about 95% of the time and the rest GC this past summer because ES was a slow mover. I been basically using GC and Equities to correlate the SI moves. Also watching USDX. Metals kind of being in a funk back to balance and look for the catalyst move to take advantage of. There's seems to be alot of anticipation for both SI and GC so I've been keeping it up on my radar. Posting my chart from last week. Note the larger moves.



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  #44 (permalink)
petergunz
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swisstrader321 View Post
Finally, a gold bug who actually is making sense. One can be bullish on gold all he wants, but how can one not see how overstretched these prices are.

Thanks. I am a gold bug, but I also am a reality bug.

It seems that ETF inflows picked up in September and gold has showed bullish signs after a big decline. However, in the past few weeks there has been what appears to be a dead cat bounce after the double top at the beginning of September. I trade silver, but use gold to get an idea of direction.

Given that silver has not reached all time highs, this is clearly a fear based bull market. China and India have picked up demand, but weddings in India are still banned due to COVID-19. I believe the ban was set to end sometime in September, but I think they have been extended (I don't know for sure).

In short, gold may go up due to a panic, but until there is a re-opening of the economy it is doubtful that the metals will take off. I think once the economy opens up, the metals will soar. That's exactly what happened to silver in May. At least, that's how it appeared when I started tracking it. What I remember most is that silver took off as soon as the exchange lowered margin requirements so I am also looking for that to happen although it may not.

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  #45 (permalink)
 SMCJB 
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The more money central banks print, the more attractive gold becomes. IMO if gold is going to see the prices many are now talking about it won't be because retail demand it will be because institutional portfolios increase their gold weightings. Even a small shift in their portfolio's equates to large change in gold demand.

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  #46 (permalink)
 walksonair 
Seattle, WA
 
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Hello, does anyone know what the next active contract will be for /GC in ThinkOrSwim? I'm hoping not to call in to TD to find out or wait... maybe someone knows what the process is?

:-)

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  #47 (permalink)
 SMCJB 
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Not sure about TD specifically but when people stop trading Dec20, the most liquid contract will be Feb21. Today Dec has already traded 300k contracts, and Feb has traded 100K. No other month has traded more than 6k contracts.

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  #48 (permalink)
 walksonair 
Seattle, WA
 
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Hi, thanks for your response! Yes, I was assuming it was going to be Feb based off of the volumes but didn't know for certain as yet.

I got the following email and am figuring out whether to roll earlier or not...so decided to check w some experts on the forum. If you have any experiences in rollover, I'd very much appreciate an advice.


Quoting 
Hello,
You are receiving this e-mail as a result of activity in Gold Futures,Dec-2020, ETH (/GCZ20) in your account ****.
Due to the upcoming delivery period, TD Ameritrade requires you to close or roll your position prior to the close of electronic trading on Wednesday November 25 2020 by 4:00 p.m. Central Time.
If you do not close or roll your position by this time, it is subject to liquidation any time thereafter. Failure to address delivery risk in your account will result in a restriction to closing only status.
Please note, if the expiring contract is a part of a futures calendar spread, the entire position may be liquidated. Also, if you are trading options on futures, the above notice may apply to you should any position be exercised or assigned.
Please refer to your customer agreement for more information:
"TD Ameritrade does not allow for futures contracts to be settled with physical delivery of a commodity nor does TD Ameritrade allow for positions to be held on or after First Notice Day.
Client is required to close or roll Client's positions to the next active month prior to First Notice Day.
While any positions can be liquidated at the discretion or the TD Ameritrade Risk Department at any time and without prior notice, open positions (regardless of whether they are long or short) in physically delivered products will be liquidated before First Notice Day or Last Trade Date, whichever occurs first.
If funds, documents, or instructions are not received, TD Ameritrade may, without notice, close out such positions without additional prior notification."

Please email [email protected] should you have any questions about these expiring contracts or how to close/roll your position.
Thanks for your attention!


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  #49 (permalink)
 SMCJB 
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The Dec contract doesn't expire until 29-Dec but first delivery day is 27-Nov. So if you have a Dec position after 27-Nov you could be required to make or take delivery. Hence why anybody who doesn't have gold in the warehouse gets out before first delivery date.

As for rolling....
Dec/Feb is 6.25c which is 3.125c/month
Dec/Apr is 10.35c which is 2.5875c/month
Dec/Jun is 13.35c which is 2.225c/month
Dec/Dec is 21.95c which is 1.83c/month
So if your buying and holding the further you roll back the cheaper it is 'per month'. If your trading then maybe Feb is best as it will have the most liquidity but saying that Dec21 is a 1 tick wide market most of the time as well. It just doesn't trade much.

I rolled my heavily underwater length back to Dec21 as I think this is a position I will have for a while.

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  #50 (permalink)
 walksonair 
Seattle, WA
 
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Thanks SMCJB for your great responses. I think I will be moving my positions out quite further as well.

As a side note I called TD and they confirmed they will switch to Feb as active contract after the close today.

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