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Gold Futures (GC) main discussion

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  #31 (permalink)
 UC Trading   is a Vendor
 
 
Posts: 21 since Apr 2020
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UC Trading View Post
RECAP

Yesterday, the gold price moved back into its Thursday range during the Asia session. A buyer defended the range and pushed the market in the long direction reaching the first target at the weekly range (1) top. The market got very volatile with the US opening but maintained buyer strength where the range top now functioned as a support level confirming the preferred long direction.

Candle Stick Chart Range


Similarly, the market profile illustrates the situation in a broader perspective. The price reached the week’s top (3) and broke it but could not yet reach the second target level at previous’ week high (4)

Market Profile View

Follow Up

Today, the gold market continued to illustrate buyer strength pushing to the upper range border (2) while reaching the target level during the EU session. Subsequently, the market showed further buyer dominance and sellers got kicked out of the market resulting in a strong long breakout.

Market Profile View

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  #32 (permalink)
 SMCJB 
Legendary Market Wizard
Houston, TX
 
Experience: Advanced
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@UC Trading Maybe you should start a journal.

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  #33 (permalink)
 UC Trading   is a Vendor
 
 
Posts: 21 since Apr 2020
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SMCJB View Post
@UC Trading Maybe you should start a journal.

I did start a journal earlier but got blocked because I stated being a vendor when I signed up for this community and posting trades is apparently prohibited for vendors.

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  #34 (permalink)
 GarySeven 
Chino Valley AZ
 
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UC Trading View Post
I did start a journal earlier but got blocked because I stated being a vendor when I signed up for this community and posting trades is apparently prohibited for vendors.

I don't read the journals but I do read in here so I liked your commentary UC.

I don't talk much but I had the same look on my charts.

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  #35 (permalink)
 Salao 
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I have never really completely understood the fundamentals that move gold. Earlier this year GC seemed inversely correlated with DX, at other times there was direct correlation. Sometimes there seems to be inverse correlation to equities (the 'haven bid'), other times it has moved with equities. Rising national deficits, perma-low interest rates, and/or banking system concerns...those kind of concerns generally move gold. So there seems to be a special kind of fear that moves GC. At any rate (accidental pun ), I was interested in reading other's thoughts on this.

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  #36 (permalink)
 Botts 
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Salao View Post
I have never really completely understood the fundamentals that move gold. Earlier this year GC seemed inversely correlated with DX, at other times there was direct correlation. Sometimes there seems to be inverse correlation to equities (the 'haven bid'), other times it has moved with equities. Rising national deficits, perma-low interest rates, and/or banking system concerns...those kind of concerns generally move gold. So there seems to be a special kind of fear that moves GC. At any rate (accidental pun ), I was interested in reading other's thoughts on this.


I've always subscribed to the "haven bid" concept you mentioned,


"aggressive monetary policy financing of fiscal spending,
which limits the ability of bond yields to rise,
that in-turn is sending inflation-adjusted, or real, yields lower,
which tends to boost the bid for precious metals"


Here's a link to a Point/Counterpoint article discussing the "Case for Silver" during this recent price run up in precious metals.

https://ca.investing.com/news/commodities-news/pointcounterpoint-the-case-for-silver-2204618?ampMode=1


It's not a "be all" answer to your question, but it does outline some interesting differences between the "Precious Metals" that hadn't occurred to me.

Trade well,
John B.

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  #37 (permalink)
petergunz
Detroit, MI
 
 
Posts: 22 since May 2020
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TopGunNote View Post
I've always subscribed to the "haven bid" concept you mentioned,


"aggressive monetary policy financing of fiscal spending,
which limits the ability of bond yields to rise,
that in-turn is sending inflation-adjusted, or real, yields lower,
which tends to boost the bid for precious metals"


Here's a link to a Point/Counterpoint article discussing the "Case for Silver" during this recent price run up in precious metals.

https://ca.investing.com/news/commodities-news/pointcounterpoint-the-case-for-silver-2204618?ampMode=1


It's not a "be all" answer to your question, but it does outline some interesting differences between the "Precious Metals" that hadn't occurred to me.

Trade well,
John B.

I have blogged about the fundamentals of gold as I have been buying and selling gold and silver coins for over a decade. I have never lost money doing this. I have lost money on futures, but mainly because of margin call. So, I have since reduced my exposure and have remained profitable.

I'll share some insights that many ignore, but really shouldn't. First, gold is to hold. Silver is for trading. This is extremely important. Second, gold and silver take their orders from the spot markets. Know the spot markets to know gold and silver.

Third, when investors are the top buyers, know that we're in a bubble. As of April, investors became the top buyers. This tells me that this cannot last. I don't know how long it will last, but it will fall. Also know that the largest buyers of gold are in China and India. Their demand has plummeted since COVID-19. I am riding this bull market, but realize that a peak will occur and it will precede a spectacular fall.

Finally and probably most importantly, do not fall for the inflation myth. Gold does not protect against inflation unless it is hyper/mass inflation on the verge of a currency crisis like Turkey/Venezuela. If gold protected against inflation, why did the price plummet after 1980 for 20 years? Based on the 1980 high, gold still has at least another $1000 to go before it reaches inflation adjusted all time highs. Hence, gold is insurance against a poorly managed economy with an out of control central bank.

Conclusion: Gold fever is here. The smart money bought $300 after it already moved. Paul Tudor Jones was recommending in 2019 when it was $1300 an ounce. In March, everybody had one last shot at getting the $1400 price. Personally, I think gold will drop once the supply picks up. With the gold coin mints not producing in the US until at least September, the shortage may prolong the bull run. However, long term the ETFs have to keep buying enough to make up for the jewelry buyers. I just don't see how that is possible in the long run.

There is also a very real chance that a central bank could unload a large chunk of gold ala the English central bank in the 1990s that could very well be the trigger to pop this bubble.

Long term, I'm bullish on gold, but short term, I'm ready for a significant dip.

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  #38 (permalink)
 swisstrader321 
Zurich
 
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petergunz View Post

Third, when investors are the top buyers, know that we're in a bubble. As of April, investors became the top buyers. This tells me that this cannot last. I don't know how long it will last, but it will fall. Also know that the largest buyers of gold are in China and India. Their demand has plummeted since COVID-19. I am riding this bull market, but realize that a peak will occur and it will precede a spectacular fall.

Finally and probably most importantly, do not fall for the inflation myth. Gold does not protect against inflation unless it is hyper/mass inflation on the verge of a currency crisis like Turkey/Venezuela. If gold protected against inflation, why did the price plummet after 1980 for 20 years? Based on the 1980 high, gold still has at least another $1000 to go before it reaches inflation adjusted all time highs. Hence, gold is insurance against a poorly managed economy with an out of control central bank.


Finally, a gold bug who actually is making sense. One can be bullish on gold all he wants, but how can one not see how overstretched these prices are.

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  #39 (permalink)
 ales19 
Australia
 
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Hi all, does anyone here day-trade/scalp the GC?

If so, what do you use to guide you?

Delta seems unhelpful due to the low volume/DOM depth. It seems to me that there may be something in looking at the volume profiles but i have found it to be a bit hit and miss so far (but maybe I am not doing it right).

So far I have been fading large/fast moves in price and also range edges but again, it doesn't seem overly consistent.

Someone mentioned pivot points but I have not managed to get anything useful out of the daily pivot point SierraChart study. Someone else mentioned Floor Pivots but I haven't found any SC study for that.

Does anyone have any pointers, tips, suggestions, etc.?

Cheers

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  #40 (permalink)
 mykee 
Johor, Malaysia
 
Experience: Beginner
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Trading: CL, GC
 
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ales19 View Post
Hi all, does anyone here day-trade/scalp the GC?


Does anyone have any pointers, tips, suggestions, etc.?

Cheers

Just understand that the slippage is pretty huge for GC, even during not so volatile time. Sudden spike, you can easily slipped 20ticks.

Sleep well, Eat Healthy, Breathe...
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