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Gold vs Oil - Which One?


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Gold vs Oil - Which One?

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  #1 (permalink)
Dubai, UAE
 
 
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Hi,

I am writing this post to find out what futures traders think about when it comes to choosing between trading gold or oil.

Iíve seen that a lot more people trade oil as opposed to gold. Is there a reason for this?

Am I missing something?

I want to focus on one of these two commodities, however I seem to be struggling to find gold futures traders who are doing well. I would have thought oil would be harder to trade than gold.

What made people choose one over the other?

Thank you in advance for your help.

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  #2 (permalink)
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Depends on your strategy. Oil gives you small moves with rotations if that works. Gold gives you clean bigger moves but not all the time. Many times GC can be choppy and is USD dependent inversely. What is your style and what times can trade? This might narrow down your choice


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  #3 (permalink)
Dubai, UAE
 
 
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jokertrader View Post
Depends on your strategy. Oil gives you small moves with rotations if that works. Gold gives you clean bigger moves but not all the time. Many times GC can be choppy and is USD dependent inversely. What is your style and what times can trade? This might narrow down your choice


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Thank you. Yeah it makes sense what you said about the rotation. Iíve seen that first hand.

My style is short time frame day trading and can generally trade the opening hours of the US market.


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  #4 (permalink)
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So if you can trade until about 11 am est u can look at crude and will give u 1 or 2 setups if u wait for the 9 am open to settle
Gold has a micro product to practice but crude does not so be careful being live


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  #5 (permalink)
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Dxbtrader View Post
My style is short time frame day trading and can generally trade the opening hours of the US market.
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Then trade Oil. Gold is on a nice rally and would be good for longer term trend trades, but oil is where the fast money is. Watch that leverage though..

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  #6 (permalink)
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LittleFinger View Post
Then trade Oil. Gold is on a nice rally and would be good for longer term trend trades, but oil is where the fast money is. Watch that leverage though..



Appreciated, thank you.

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  #7 (permalink)
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jokertrader View Post
So if you can trade until about 11 am est u can look at crude and will give u 1 or 2 setups if u wait for the 9 am open to settle
Gold has a micro product to practice but crude does not so be careful being live


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What type of setups do you look for on oil during that time period Joker?

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  #8 (permalink)
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Crude opens at 9 am EST and its difficult to see direction for sometime (some say initial balance is 30 mins some say 1 hour)
There are primarily 2 setups - a breakout and reversal
a) once it meanders or shows its hand (compared to yesterday's value area, high, low etc), you can look for a breakout.. but probably wait for test of that level

b) For reversal you want to see volume spike and then reverse

look at FT 71's setups and see what you think?
Of course this does not lend itself to easy backtesting

I also think order flow and liquidity levels are important to learn

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nicolas burr View Post
What to expect in nearest days from oil and gold futures amid most-talked-about coronavirus?

I expect only limited reactions.

WHO did declare a global health emergency yesterday, but there was no strong reaction regarding global markets.

The number of new cases outside of China is very limited.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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nicolas burr View Post
What to expect in nearest days from oil and gold futures amid most-talked-about coronavirus?

Over simplifying it a little ...

If the virus is a major problem demand goes down so Oil goes down (and other Commodities & Equities as well), and fear goes up so Gold goes up (and Bonds, Eurodollars and probably the USD and Bitcoin).

If it's a big overreaction and the virus fades out. I think it's far to think that Oil could retrace some/much/all of the $8 it's lost in the last 10 days / $5 it's lost in the last week. Similar for equities, bonds, etc

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SMCJB View Post
Over simplifying it a little ...

If the virus is a major problem demand goes down so Oil goes down (and other Commodities & Equities as well), and fear goes up so Gold goes up (and Bonds, Eurodollars and probably the USD and Bitcoin).

If it's a big overreaction and the virus fades out. I think it's far to think that Oil could retrace some/much/all of the $8 it's lost in the last 10 days / $5 it's lost in the last week. Similar for equities, bonds, etc

I read an interesting article about the influence of the outbreak of deseasis on the price of stock indices.

In all cases but one stock price three months after the outbreak was at the same or a higher level as before the outbreak, with the exception being HIV.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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myrrdin View Post
I read an interesting article about the influence of the outbreak of deseasis on the price of stock indices.

In all cases but one stock price three months after the outbreak was at the same or a higher level as before the outbreak, with the exception being HIV.

I saw something similar. Worth pointing out that SARS killed less than 800 people, and as horrific as things like ebola are they were very contained to Western Africa which had very little effect on world economies. In contrast the flu kills 40,000-50,000 people a year in the US. Maybe not surprising then that in the last 12 years I think we have had just 4 down quarters. The virus's people have been scared of, in the big picture were insignificant to the ones we face every year - at least for the developed world. This one could very well be the same - but it could be different. When it comes to equities though, buying the panic is often a much better performer than selling it. If we get a big correction I for one will be a buyer. I could be completely wrong - but if I am wrong I think I will have a lot more to worry about than my stock portfolio!

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SMCJB View Post
I saw something similar. Worth pointing out that SARS killed less than 800 people, and as horrific as things like ebola are they were very contained to Western Africa which had very little effect on world economies. In contrast the flu kills 40,000-50,000 people a year in the US. Maybe not surprising then that in the last 12 years I think we have had just 4 down quarters. The virus's people have been scared of, in the big picture were insignificant to the ones we face every year - at least for the developed world. This one could very well be the same - but it could be different. When it comes to equities though, buying the panic is often a much better performer than selling it. If we get a big correction I for one will be a buyer. I could be completely wrong - but if I am wrong I think I will have a lot more to worry about than my stock portfolio!

There are significant differences between the flu on the one side and SARS / Corona Virus on the other side. Flu kills significantly more people, but most of them are at a high age, and not involved in the economic processes. There are no special measures against the flu, eg. closing down of factories, travel restrictions etc. Thus, flu does not influence the indices significantly.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #14 (permalink)
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This flu is a much bigger threat than before. I come from Taiwan. I can't buy the musk at every pharmacy market.
Everyone is nervous.

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myrrdin View Post
There are significant differences between the flu on the one side and SARS / Corona Virus on the other side. Flu kills significantly more people, but most of them are at a high age, and not involved in the economic processes. There are no special measures against the flu, eg. closing down of factories, travel restrictions etc. Thus, flu does not influence the indices significantly.

This weeks Macrovoices Podcast (#204) with Erik Townsend was a double interview. The first interview was with Julian Brigden from MI2 partners. He is a Macro trader/analyst and I'm a big fan - and to be honest the reason I was listening to the podcast. The second interview was with Dr. Chris Martenson who has a PhD in pathology from Duke University. At 1hr40mins its a lot longer than normal podcast, I assume because the Dr Martenson interview wasn't originally planned. He goes on to talk about all the following and was an interesting listen.
  • Will nCoV turn out to be worse than the 2003 SARS epidemic?
  • What is Asymptomatic Transmission and R-naught; what are their significances?
  • How should we be thinking about the Case Fatality Rate for nCov?
  • How will nCoV impact the markets?
My takeaways were
  • We have no idea how reliable any of the data is, so everything must be be viewed with that in mind.
  • The Asymptomatic Transmission and potentially high R-naught - potentially much higher than the flu or SARS could be the real problems.;

https://www.macrovoices.com/

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  #16 (permalink)
berlin
 
 
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demand in china down 3 milions barrels per day, i think that 45 dollars will be nice price in several weeks

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  #17 (permalink)
berlin
 
 
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and short gold,there isnt reason for some panic,82 procent people which have corona virus ,dont need doctor,only 3 procent people death

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  #18 (permalink)
Berlin, Germany
 
 
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I tend to watch multiple markets and trade where I assume there will be the bigger swings/ volatility.

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  #19 (permalink)
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Ray Dalio (Bridgewater Fund), has predicted for 2020, that gold will rise; will it?... we'll see...

"..... the good guys at Bridgewater have just churned out a new public prophecy: gold will rise to $2,000."

https://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/nell-anno-record-wall-street-fondo-bridgewater-dalio-fa-05percento-AC3TlvCB?refresh_ce=1

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