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  #1 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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It is interesting to note that the price for Palladium almost reached the price for Platinum. At some point it might be interesting to buy the 2*PL-PA spread.

The reason for the relative strength of Palladium is not clear to me.

Both metals are used for catalysators in car engins. The advantage of Palladium was the lower price, whereas Platinum showed technological advantages. Currently the prices of Palladium and Platinum are approx. the same. Thus, the advantage of Palladium has disappeared.

The spread Palladium minus Platinum improves continuously since 2010. Thus, short-term supply problems or short-term political decisions cannot be the reason behind. The Volkswagen scandal started later.

Does anyone have an explanation ?

Only once since 1983 - in 2000 - the spread moved beyond zero. It is tempting to sell the spread PA - 2 * PL with a stop at a close above 0. The longterm potential is enormous. The value of the spread was below -$120,000 in 2010.

Any comments are appreciated.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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myrrdin View Post
The reason for the relative strength of Palladium is not clear to me.

Hydrogen fuel cell use as well as the known catalysis, all rare earth metals seem to be flying on the back of electric/non-oil car futures.

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myrrdin View Post
It is interesting to note that the price for Palladium almost reached the price for Platinum. At some point it might be interesting to buy the 2*PL-PA spread.

The reason for the relative strength of Palladium is not clear to me.

Both metals are used for catalysators in car engins. The advantage of Palladium was the lower price, whereas Platinum showed technological advantages. Currently the prices of Palladium and Platinum are approx. the same. Thus, the advantage of Palladium has disappeared.

The spread Palladium minus Platinum improves continuously since 2010. Thus, short-term supply problems or short-term political decisions cannot be the reason behind. The Volkswagen scandal started later.

Does anyone have an explanation ?

Only once since 1983 - in 2000 - the spread moved beyond zero. It is tempting to sell the spread PA - 2 * PL with a stop at a close above 0. The longterm potential is enormous. The value of the spread was below -$120,000 in 2010.

Any comments are appreciated.

Best regards, Myrrdin

basis price driver : supply / demand

did you look at the COT for both ?

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rleplae View Post
basis price driver : supply / demand

did you look at the COT for both ?

It is obvious that the price drivers are supply and demand. But whose supply and demand in this case ?

Funds are long, commercials are short.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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ratfink View Post
Hydrogen fuel cell use as well as the known catalysis, all rare earth metals seem to be flying on the back of electric/non-oil car futures.

Cheers

The number of fuel cells built since 2010 is limited, isn't it ? The number of car enginies should be significantly higher.

And why does the price of Platinum not rise ?

Best regards, Myrrdin

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myrrdin View Post
It is interesting to note that the price for Palladium almost reached the price for Platinum. At some point it might be interesting to buy the 2*PL-PA spread.

Why 2:1 is that a calculated hedge ratio?

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I was wondering whether the German Diesel Engine Fiasco had anything to do with it but wikipedia implies Diesel Catalytic converters use both. Of course the quantities used could be vastly different.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalytic_converter
Diesel engines
For compression-ignition (i.e., diesel engines), the most commonly used catalytic converter is the diesel oxidation catalyst (DOC). DOCs contain palladium, platinum and aluminium oxide, all of which serve as catalysts to oxidize the hydrocarbons and carbon monoxide with oxygen to form carbon dioxide and water.

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SMCJB View Post
Why 2:1 is that a calculated hedge ratio?

The Palladium contract is for 100 troy ounces, the Platinum contract for 50 troy ounces. Price quotation for both is in Dollars and Cents per troy ounce.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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SMCJB View Post
I was wondering whether the German Diesel Engine Fiasco had anything to do with it but wikipedia implies Diesel Catalytic converters use both. Of course the quantities used could be vastly different.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalytic_converter
Diesel engines
For compression-ignition (i.e., diesel engines), the most commonly used catalytic converter is the diesel oxidation catalyst (DOC). DOCs contain palladium, platinum and aluminium oxide, all of which serve as catalysts to oxidize the hydrocarbons and carbon monoxide with oxygen to form carbon dioxide and water.

As far as I know, the Palladium share in Otto engines is higher than in Diesel engines for technological reasons. For some years it was the target to develop catalysators for a high Palladium share because of the lower price of this metal But if both have the same price it would be a technological advantage to only use Platinum.

A problem might be that the development of a new catalysator based only on Platinum takes some time.

But why did the price of Palladium rise compared to Platinum in early 2010 ? The Volkswagen fiasco was later. A reason could be the growing number of cars in China. In this country Otto engines are more popular than Diesel engines, whereas in Germany and the rest of Europe Diesel engines are more popular.

But in my opinion, if we only look at catalysators for car engines, there should be a price advantage for Platinum in the long term due to technological reasons.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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Been trading PL for about 7 years. Looked into PA, but a little too thin for me to trade. PL has a big seasonal long move between xmas and new years. Don't tell anyone!!!! LOL. Like to see PA moving the same direction as PL. Made half of my income off PL this year. Day trade it also. Slippage can be a little high at times.

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for crude oil/Heating oil/ RB gasoline / Natural gas, we can get important date / time as to when the inventory / production data .... will be released. we can get it from EIA websiste.

similarly for grains, we can get the info from USDA.

how about metals like copper, zinc ...?
I would like to know just the important date / time reports will be released.

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maxinger View Post
for crude oil/Heating oil/ RB gasoline / Natural gas, we can get important date / time as to when the inventory / production data .... will be released. we can get it from EIA websiste.

similarly for grains, we can get the info from USDA.

how about metals like copper, zinc ...?
I would like to know just the important date / time reports will be released.

I do not know of any complete supply and demand reports, comparable with those mentioned by you, for metals. I receive Shanghai copper warehouse stocks and LME copper stocks from the Hightower Report, but I am sure that you can find them at the Internet sites of these exchanges, too. There you might also find these figures for other metals.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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My aesthetic eye says Gold down today may be the start of a trend?

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could someone help me setup my gold chart. Im just curious what the pit session times are for Gold where it is most active. for example for the ES mini i have 9:30-415. I cant find what the times for GC are. Thanks.

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halperin View Post
could someone help me setup my gold chart. Im just curious what the pit session times are for Gold where it is most active. for example for the ES mini i have 9:30-415. I cant find what the times for GC are. Thanks.

Via Google I found some information regarding open outcry at this site:
Futures Trading Hours - Commodity Futures And Options Daily Schedule .

Gold futures: 8.20 - 13.30 (ET) .

Best regards, Myrrdin

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thanks! so thats a much shorter trade window there vs the s&p.

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Currently I hold the following positions:

GCJ
GCJ-ECH
PLJ
I expect inflation to grow during the next couple of months, and, thus, gold price to rise. As I am not sure about the Euro I hedged some futures with a short Euro position.

According to MRCI these trades are suppported from December until end of February, and should move sidewards for the next couple of months.

COT data is bullish.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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I just entered the SIZ-GCZ spread as a longterm trade.

The spread currently is at approx. USD -45,000, the recent high is just below USD -53,000.

First target is around USD -35,000, second target around USD -10,000.

But it might take years to get there.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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So your hypothesis is that Silver will outperform Gold, but your doing that as 1 contract:1 contract trade? Isn't the danger that the trade becomes dominated by the Gold position since it's so much larger? More specifically if Silver goes up 50%, and Gold goes up 35%, your hypothesis would be correct but you would actually lose money. On the other hand if Silver goes down 25%, and Gold goes down 20%, your hypothesis was wrong but you would actually make money.

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SMCJB View Post
So your hypothesis is that Silver will outperform Gold, but your doing that as 1 contract:1 contract trade? Isn't the danger that the trade becomes dominated by the Gold position since it's so much larger? More specifically if Silver goes up 50%, and Gold goes up 35%, your hypothesis would be correct but you would actually lose money. On the other hand if Silver goes down 25%, and Gold goes down 20%, your hypothesis was wrong but you would actually make money.

Thanks a lot for making me aware of the fault. I adjusted the trade to a relation 3 SIZ - 2 GCZ. This yields USD 244,000 for GC and USD 232,000 for SI, based on yesterdays closiing prices.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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Hi @myrrdin,
How would you interpret the recent SHARP fall on OI in Platinum? It seems to me that Commercials closed their Long positions. And as bearish as that may sound, price did not drop and we just saw a nice long bullish bar today. I would like to know if you have any current insights on this instrument.

To me this is a case study. Is today's bar a bull trap? I really don't know.

Thanks.

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ElChacal View Post
Hi @myrrdin,
How would you interpret the recent SHARP fall on OI in Platinum? It seems to me that Commercials closed their Long positions. And as bearish as that may sound, price did not drop and we just saw a nice long bullish bar today. I would like to know if you have any current insights on this instrument.

To me this is a case study. Is today's bar a bull trap? I really don't know.

Thanks.

I did not trade Platinum in recent months, and did not follow it closely.

Yesterday Platinum (and also Gold) moved upwards strongly. I assume
the reason is "safe haven".

Perhaps someone else is able to give an explanation for the drop OI.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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ElChacal View Post
Hi @myrrdin,
How would you interpret the recent SHARP fall on OI in Platinum? It seems to me that Commercials closed their Long positions. And as bearish as that may sound, price did not drop and we just saw a nice long bullish bar today. I would like to know if you have any current insights on this instrument.

To me this is a case study. Is today's bar a bull trap? I really don't know.

Thanks.

I was stopped out of the SI-GC spread some time ago.

Currently I hold long positions in GC and SI and sold calls above the futures - in my opinion the lows are in.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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I'm curious what your thoughts are on the net long commercial position in gold/silver. The total longs are on the high end but what is interesting is the high net long reading comes from the lack of short positions more than a larger than ever actual long position.


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Copper is looking interesting. Unfortunately, I have all my funds busy on other trades.
Trading months March, May and July are trading at a premium compared to each subsequent month. Not sure how standard that scenario really is.

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ElChacal View Post
Copper is looking interesting. Unfortunately, I have all my funds busy on other trades.
Trading months March, May and July are trading at a premium compared to each subsequent month. Not sure how standard that scenario really is.

What makes you think copper is looking interesting ?

I just read through the most recent fundametal news - some of them are bearish, some bullish. But I do not see anything exciting.

An important issue will be decided soon - the trade issue between China and the US. It will influence the copper price significantly, but unfortunately we do not know in which direction.

The seasonal charts do not give a clear message, and there are no COT data availble currently.

I do not hold a position in copper, but I would be interested in learning about good arguments for entering a trade.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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myrrdin View Post
What makes you think copper is looking interesting ?

Right... The government shutdown has us without the COTs and I would really need confirmation. But I am noticing a pattern that makes me think it has bottomed out. Again would need the COT report to get confidence.

Apologies for being too vague...

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Here is our opinion of Gold from a few days ago: https://www.cannontrading.com/tools/support-resistance-levels/gold-futures-heiken-ashi-daily-chart-trading-levels-1-25-2019/

PM with any questions about Cannon Trading (800) 454-9572 (310) 859-9572. Trading commodity futures, forex and options involves substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained in this post are of opinion only and do not guarantee any profits. These are risky markets and only risk capital should be used. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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Market Wizard
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ElChacal View Post
Right... The government shutdown has us without the COTs and I would really need confirmation. But I am noticing a pattern that makes me think it has bottomed out. Again would need the COT report to get confidence.

Apologies for being too vague...

I am not good in reading charts. Thus, I am always interested in opinions of chartists ...

Best regards, Myrrdin

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I have had a GLD trade on since Dec 17 that I added to in the dip last year.

I am not selling but I also can't see adding to it any more at this point.

To put a gold trade on now long seems like chasing.

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centaurer View Post
I have had a GLD trade on since Dec 17 that I added to in the dip last year.

I am not selling but I also can't see adding to it any more at this point.

To put a gold trade on now long seems like chasing.

There is strong resistance around 1350. I agree that it does not make sense to add to a position at the current price level.

I also hold positions in Gold and Silver.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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Nice. I wouldn't even mind a pull back to get just a little more but I am happy with my position. I am pretty much going to hold until the next downturn and rate cuts.


myrrdin View Post
There is strong resistance around 1350. I agree that it does not make sense to add to a position at the current price level.

I also hold positions in Gold and Silver.

Best regards, Myrrdin


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myrrdin View Post
What makes you think copper is looking interesting ?



I just read through the most recent fundametal news - some of them are bearish, some bullish. But I do not see anything exciting.



What fundamental service do you use and how much is it? I am really interested on knowing if there is any particular service you use or can suggest.



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ElChacal View Post
What fundamental service do you use and how much is it? I am really interested on knowing if there is any particular service you use or can suggest.



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Regarding Gold, I use the services of Dave Hightower and Robert Rethfeld.

There are several options to subscribe to information from Hightower, which you find on their homepage. I currently use their daily services, which I receive from my broker free of charge.

"Wellenreiter" by Robert Rethfeld is an excellent service in German language on international Stock Indices, Financials, Currencies, Metals, and Energies.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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centaurer View Post
Nice. I wouldn't even mind a pull back to get just a little more but I am happy with my position. I am pretty much going to hold until the next downturn and rate cuts.

I would state that a steepening yield curve is bearish for gold but to me the big question is, is the yield curve steepening or will it continue to flatten?
I honestly don't know as I am still trying to grasp the whole bonds trade.

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  #37 (permalink)
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Fed Watch has a 25% chance of a rate cut by Jan 2020 and a 7% chance by September. Fed Funds think any further hike is gone. It is incredible when a month ago there was a 25% chance of a further hike. I heard Bill Gross explain that inverting yield curve is a function of the bond market pricing in future rate cuts.

I didn't get my last leg of my gold trade on but I am comfy with how I sit here if we start a cut.


ElChacal View Post
I would state that a steepening yield curve is bearish for gold but to me the big question is, is the yield curve steepening or will it continue to flatten?
I honestly don't know as I am still trying to grasp the whole bonds trade.


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  #38 (permalink)
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I have long term positions in gold, silver and platinum.
As well as short terms positions: 2 spreads put options in gold and silver
Therefore I closely watch these three plus palladium.
If Trump is not following through on taxing european cars then maybe platinum can have its moment.
It is clear that the volatility has increased recently and that the current level of price is around 900 after touching almost 740 couple of months ago. The spread with palladium is as well high and sooner or later will have to decrease. Therefore I will most probably increase soon my long term position on platinum.
https://www.home.saxo/insights/content-hub/articles/2019/04/04/platinum-challenges-downtrend-from-2011

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  #39 (permalink)
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Finally I went to a long term long position on Gold Miners (Van Eck Gold Miners ETF). My Platinum ETF position started in 2016 is in red so I am careful there.
To go on with the discussion on the COT, this is an example for me of a previously bullish COT (from August 2018 to April 2019 that is turning neutral and maybe bearish (see next reply) On that I am out and I will come back if there is something new here...
Trades issues with China and slow down on automobiles purchases didn't play well for Pt recently but at the current level it could be the right moment (I don't think Pt can go lower than 760 but everything is possible...
)

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  #41 (permalink)
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Concerning Gold, do no miss the extensive gold report below from "in gold we trust" (as I mentioned recently I bought Van Eck Gold miners ETF ) and with around 18% of my capital invested in precious metals (mostly gold), I consider that my diversification is on good track and at this stage could be considered over and this up to the first concrete signs of the R or D letter...
https://ingoldwetrust.report/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/In-Gold-We-Trust-2019-Extended-Version-english.pdf


Concerning Copper, I wanted to take a short call option at 3.1 two months ago but I missed the opportunity.
I am not so optimistic with Trump that is as unpredictable as ever. I monitor the situation and prices could go towards 2.55 to 2.48 or towards 3 if sentiment is improving (so with 4 month ahead options it is quite a lottery so I am on the sideline).
Monthly view (sorry for some vertical lines, artefact from another indicator)
Nothing remarkable in the COT for me


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  #42 (permalink)
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Sagal View Post
Concerning Gold, do no miss the extensive gold report below from "in gold we trust" (as I mentioned recently I bought Van Eck Gold miners ETF ) and with around 18% of my capital invested in precious metals (mostly gold), I consider that my diversification is on good track and at this stage could be considered over and this up to the first concrete signs of the R or D letter...
https://ingoldwetrust.report/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/In-Gold-We-Trust-2019-Extended-Version-english.pdf


Concerning Copper, I wanted to take a short call option at 3.1 two months ago but I missed the opportunity.
I am not so optimistic with Trump that is as unpredictable as ever. I monitor the situation and prices could go towards 2.55 to 2.48 or towards 3 if sentiment is improving (so with 4 month ahead options it is quite a lottery so I am on the sideline).
Monthly view (sorry for some vertical lines, artefact from another indicator)
Nothing remarkable in the COT for me


I bought small lots of Gold and Silver recently. Will not be very patient in case prices come down again.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #43 (permalink)
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Good to know myrddin. I have a Naked Put Option for November on Silver at 13.75. But even if it goes well, it will be far from making up for some recent losses with spread options in May for gold and silver. It was a matter of 10-15 days for Gold and Silver for me that would have made a whole difference...Gold miners went very well after a negative start...
I am not enough confident to go long with futures on gold or silver (considering the long ETF that I hold already)
PS Waiting to reenter Coffee with futures (in any direction) as I took some profits on Friday morning as I exited my 3 long futures ...(and released some mental pressure: with 3 futures and 3 naked option puts on play....it is not easy to witness -6% one day and +3% the other day...)
PS2 As I was replying to a forum guy, I came to this graphs on Dr copper
https://www.yardeni.com/pub/coppercorrel.pdf

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  #44 (permalink)
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I doubled my positions on Gold physical ETF GAM and tripled my GDX one since my last message as I sold half of a long term position in Healthcare and keep half of the cash and invested the other part. I am ready to double it again or to invest in Silver physical ETF GAM in the next stage depending of the situation.
I was wondering this morning about the performance of Silver yesterday, then I turned the view on "investing" website to performance and I am less concerned: Siver -1.05% on Friday but +3.29% on the week and +5.17% so far on the month.
The only depressing one is Platinum but on YTD and on one year period better than Silver anyway...
No action on Coffee or Brent futures and I did good to stay aside and listening my little voice (I would have shorted them and I would have been hammered...).
Still on course to be right for OJ from 112 to 95 but I don't care. I lost money there and I don't think I will come back soon on OJ. I removed it from my list of commodities to trade...

By the way you are aware of Paul Tudor's favorite bet for the next 12-24 months aren't you?


and we have Gundlach as well
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/13/bond-king-jeffrey-gundlach-i-am-certainly-long-gold.html

Best regards,
Sagal

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  #45 (permalink)
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Sagal View Post
I doubled my positions on Gold physical ETF GAM and tripled my GDX one since my last message as I sold half of a long term position in Healthcare and keep half of the cash and invested the other part. I am ready to double it again or to invest in Silver physical ETF GAM in the next stage depending of the situation.
No action on Coffee or Brent futures and I did good to stay aside and listening my little voice (I would have shorted them and I would have been hammered...).
Still on course to be right for OJ from 112 to 95 but I don't care.

Best regards,
Sagal

Just for your information: I still hold long positions in Gold (GCQ), Coffee (short KCH P1, I already bought back the KCU C1.30), and Orange Juice (OJU). All positions are considered longterm.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #46 (permalink)
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Good to know that you didn't give up GCQ myrrdin.
For me the futures are too volatile and futures/options are less than 5% of my portfolio. To the point that I have the impression that I almost only engage in Futures when my naked put/call options are at stake... Then it is protecting my capital and I do not hesitate...
For long term investment it has to be ETF physical and preferably redeemable and currency hedged in chf and euros (as GAM ex Julius Baer's one).


An interesting article on Cooper. In summary with the latest move from the FED and the trade war ongoing a lid is expected on the price. I hold Stoxx 600 Europe Basic Resources (my way of investing in diamond, copper, iron ore etc.) but I am ready to act...more in the direction of exiting (similarly with Stoxx 600 Europe Oil & Gas)
https://www.cmegroup.com/education/featured-reports/coppers-options-paradox.html?utm_source=pardot&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=economic_research

By the way it was incorrect for me to say that for one year up to know Platinum performed better than Silver. It is the opposite but not by far (I was coming here to correct that)

PS Adam Hamilton calculated that for Gold futures at 1350 USD dollars per contract the leverage is 39.7 and therefore 2.5% rally for gold will wipe out 100% of the capital risked by the short-sellers

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  #47 (permalink)
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For Gold, and for many other commodities I checked the latest COT and for Gold it is a nice trend.
The TA is also good (diagonal resistance breached, 78.6% Fibo breached, above Ichimoku cloud weekly etc.)

I am waiting for such a favorable environment since May 2017 (date of my first long investment in Physical Gold ETF redeemable)...

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Sagal View Post

PS Adam Hamilton calculated that for Gold futures at 1350 USD dollars per contract the leverage is 39.7 and therefore 2.5% rally for gold will wipe out 100% of the capital risked by the short-sellers

I do not understand this sentence. At a price for Gold of 1350 USD a loss of 2.5 % corresponds to a reduction of Gold price of 33.75 USD or a loss of the future trader of 3375 USD. I would not consider this a major loss. I did not check the margin for a gold future, but Mr. Hamilton could mean that a loss of 2.5 % corresponds to the margin for one Gold future. I do not consider this to be relevant.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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@myrrdin and concerning Hamilton, yes it is my understanding as well it is about 2.5% representing the margin and the need to invest more money to stay in. But of course you have to consider the big fishes (they trade a lot of lots).
Even at my level it is something that I feel (I can take 1 futures of coffee C or Cocoa without thinking too much about it but the story is completely different with one futures of gold, silver or copper).

I like to have a good underlying fact/news/trend behind a move to be more confident.
In addition to the global environment: Trade wars with China, Iran, slowing down of the economy, Fed change of policy on interest rates, North Korea and weakening of USD index due among other things to the weaponization of the Dollars by the US administration etc.
There are two other graphs that fit well with the context:
The increase in the total of negative debt and the correlation with Gold (talking about O Hansen, I found this graph in the Daily Shot WSJ and it is available on his account, a similar one was showed today in Bloomberg TV)
The real interest rates that can be followed by the 5 y TIPS
https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GTII5:GOV


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  #51 (permalink)
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I am just an amateur part-time trader (on my free time) with a full time job and I am not good at compartmentalising (I will work on it). So I let go / miss the Coffee futures (was waiting at 104 approx to go long), even the Platinum (after a long consideration/assessment) currently +2.8% today (markets not closed) and I focused on Gold and Silver. I took an additional relatively large position on GDXJ (VanEck junior gold miners ETF) and I doubled my position in Silver (with ETF GAM physical hedged into chf).
I do not think there will be any real steps forward at Osaka G20 between Trump and Xi Jinping.
Even if I am wrong for G20, Silver at this price on a long term view is a good bargain.

PS I almost finished to read the last annual report of 'In Gold We Trust' (links given in the previous message). It is an amazing piece of work and it is so completely in adequacy with the current environment...
I read a couple of weeks ago Ray Dalio: 'principle for navigating big debt crisis" but the report is so much more interesting in terms of practical information...I can only highly recommend it.

In 2008 - 2011 I was not so much involved in equities, I just followed the situation and took note, but since I entered actively in the market in 2012 I have in mind what is going to happen and I am preparing for it...I think I am ready now...

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  #52 (permalink)
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Temporarily I doubled my investment in Platinum (via GAM physical ETF redeemable and hedged into chf).
By the end of the year I will sell the PHPT ETF (not redeemable and in USD) as I lost money there since 2016 to reduce my profits for this year and pay less taxes. So at the end of the year my platinum position will be similar than the one before the purchase.
I expect platinum to reach at least 900 by the end of year, maybe 960 (by January -February 2020) and maybe 1000 by end of 2020. Of course it can go as well to 760 and stays around... There are ongoing negotiations between South African unions and the miners companies and on top of that platinum should catch up a little bit with palladium and gold while South African Rand should strengthen in comparison to the USD.
My diversification/reallocation is almost finished now, ahead of time as my target was end of 2019, so I will stay quiet for a while...

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I sold a naked put of Copper (HGZ19) with a strike at 2.55 expiry end of November (December contract).
Rationale 1-COT is bullish (commercials are buying they are optimistic or they have better information than the others) COT index is close to 3 year high 2-China demand is still relatively strong 3-Supply is tight (today was an announcement of a delay from Rio for the starting of the 3rd to be bigger copper mine) 4- 2.55 is with a safety margin as I consider that 2.6 should hold on a technical analysis point of view. 5-Seasonality is neutral at 5 y and favorable at 10 y and above.
PS On a mid term technical analysis point of view, refer to my graph p.5 that could point to a beginning of a phase 3 Elliot wave.
One can say how can you be bullish on Copper and at the same time bearish on the stock market to invest heavily in precious metals? Good question...Anyway we are talking of end of November and I can buy back my naked put at 70% profit if it goes to that direction...

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  #54 (permalink)
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Can anyone helped me with establishing charts for Gold futures? Have been day trading Gold since late Jan19 using the Globex chart but have only recently begun a deep dive into market auction theory. I know pit session is 8.20 - 13.30 EST and am setting up my charts to better reflect open/day types. My only issue is how do I account for the balance of the Globex session?

Initial thought is to have an "Overnight" chart for 13.30 - 17.00/18.00 - 8.20 EST.

Another thought is to have the entire Globex session on one chart and have separate profiles for the pit session and the entire Globex session. I would then plot the IB of the pit session for determining open/day types.

Thank you in advance.

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I am sorry but I do not get your point. This is done automatically by the charting platform that you are using no? Eventually you can adjust some parameters...
What is the problem for you with such a 60mn graph?

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  #56 (permalink)
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"Ray Dalio says gold will be a top investment during upcoming ‘paradigm shift’ for global markets"
https://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/2019/07/17/ray-dalio-says-gold-will-be-a-top-investment-during-upcoming-paradigm-shift-for-global-markets/

I will read carefully the source document:
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/paradigm-shifts-ray-dalio/

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  #57 (permalink)
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Louise Yamada's 26 July analysis of gold and GDX on Bloomberg tv.
...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2019-07-26/louise-yamada-sees-gold-surging-to-new-highs-video

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I was waiting for this breakout for a long time for Silver (the multi-year diagonale resistance). Of course by nature it is supposed to be broken sooner or later. MA200 to go over and pathway is clear after that.

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Recent ETF inflows on silver

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Something is going on with gold (source goldhub)
"Central banks bought 224.4t of gold in Q2 2019. This took H1 buying to 374.1t – the largest net H1 increase in global gold reserves in our 19-year quarterly data series. Buying was again spread across a diverse range of – largely emerging market – countries.
Holdings of gold-backed ETFs grew 67.2t in Q2 to a six-year high of 2,548t. The main factors driving inflows into the sector were continued geopolitical instability, expectation of lower interest rates, and the rallying gold price in June"

After Powell's comments yesterday gold went down but 1h20 before closing of WST, volume are +366% in comparison to an average at a similar time of the day (Barchart data) and I join the 1h graph (on top of that oil is sinking)...

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Sagal View Post
Something is going on with gold (source goldhub)
"Central banks bought 224.4t of gold in Q2 2019. This took H1 buying to 374.1t – the largest net H1 increase in global gold reserves in our 19-year quarterly data series. Buying was again spread across a diverse range of – largely emerging market – countries.
Holdings of gold-backed ETFs grew 67.2t in Q2 to a six-year high of 2,548t. The main factors driving inflows into the sector were continued geopolitical instability, expectation of lower interest rates, and the rallying gold price in June"

After Powell's comments yesterday gold went down but 1h20 before closing of WST, volume are +366% in comparison to an average at a similar time of the day (Barchart data) and I join the 1h graph (on top of that oil is sinking)...

All back to normal. Fed day was overloaded with expectations and trembling fingers. GC printed WRB with close in upper 10%,

I don't explain my charts. If you like to follow my trades, look for these lines.
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Thanks for the feedback.
Going nicely for Gold, Silver and not as well as I would like for Platinum but of course the collateral damage of Trump's current decision on +10% on the Chinese goods that were not yet subject to tariffs from 1st September is Copper...
2.55 needs to hold for me for the option contract expiring in November...
I am not completely pessimistic and I still think it can hold. We are maybe at a bottom. I will intervene below 2.5
COT is still bullish
Weekly view

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Nice move for platinum currently +4% (market still opened) and 900 bar crossed. Let's see if it is the beginning of the catch up with the other precious metals
Just to follow up here as I expect at least 920...for the rest quiet as usual here...

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I hold small positions in Geld and Silver with the intention to hold them longterm.

A lot of money has been spent by National Banks world-wide, and it has to end up somewhere.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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myrrdin View Post
I hold small positions in Geld and Silver with the intention to hold them longterm.

Think this will be a winner long term. Maybe Bitcoin as well? Same theory different perespective

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In Gold We Trust 2020 report:
long version: https://ingoldwetrust.report/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/In-Gold-We-Trust-report-2020-Extended-Version-english.pdf

Short version: https://ingoldwetrust.report/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/In-Gold-We-Trust-report-2020-Compact-Version-english.pdf

Enjoy the reading guys...

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Micro Fees going up effective Feb 1st

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MES, MNQ, M2k, MYM all going up 5c/side
MGC, SIL all going up 20c/side

https://www.cmegroup.com/content/dam/cmegroup/notices/ser/2020/12/SER-8691.pdf


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Gold maybe on the verge of a breakout. Bounce off of support with momentum. Would like to see it break 1918 level.

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In my opinion, the price of Uranium should rise significantly in the next couple of years. Some countries - probably including the US - might reduce the use of oil and gas for energy production, and will replace it with Uranium.

Interactive Brokers offers the UX contract, but it is interesting to note that there seems to be no trade in this contract.

Am I missing anything ? Is there another contract for Uranium ?

Best regards, Myrrdin

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Real Vision has done some very interesting interviews on Uranium which are available on YouTube. The interviewee (Adam Rodman) has been very bullish Uranium for several years. I believe in one of them (the oldest?) they actually discuss ways to get exposure to Uranium.
[yt]https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=real+vision+uranium[/yt]

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  #72 (permalink)
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I posted it already at the wallstreetbets dedicated forum in this site:
In case you don't know Silver is also concerned and we can already see the results on the future price since yesterday. I was participating before in the Precious Metals (since 2016) and continue doing so more determined than ever with ETF physical Silver and Gold as well as with micro futures Silver and Futures Platinum that I plan to roll over and with GDX and GDXJ...
#silvershortsqueeze
https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/l6novm/the_real_dd_on_slv_the_worlds_biggest_short/

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I saw some talk about AG being on their radar... haven't personally researched it but my buddy has been telling me for near 11 years silver is going to $60. Hope he is finally right I am getting tired of the same story

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They'll need to buy a lot of Silver to squeeze that market! Still nice 10% move in 2 days. Be careful with Silver, it is very volatile, in fact I believe he has the highest ATR of any US futures contract. Three weeks ago today, Friday 8th, it had a $2.80 daily range which was equal to a 10.9% move in 1 day! $28 is the short term high (6-Jan) $30.35 is medium term high (August)

Edit: and remember SI (5000 oz) and SIL (1000oz - micro) are both physically settled, QI (2500oz eMini) is financially settled

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They'll need to buy a lot of Silver to squeeze that market! Still nice 10% move in 2 days. Be careful with Silver, it is very volatile, in fact I believe he has the highest ATR of any US futures contract. Three weeks ago today, Friday 8th, it had a $2.80 daily range which was equal to a 10.9% move in 1 day! $28 is the short term high (6-Jan) $30.35 is medium term high (August)

Edit: and remember SI (5000 oz) and SIL (1000oz - micro) are both physically settled, QI (2500oz eMini) is financially settled

Thanks SMCJB. You have the data on what it would take to squeeze the short Silver on one of the earliest link
Concerning physically settled (Settles 12:25p.m) so at least 3 hours ahead: with all good brokers you have a First Notice Day for futures or micro futures or CFD contract where it is the last day you should sell at the latest or where the good broker will close your position anyway
FND contract March SIH21 is 26 Feb 2021 and for SIK21 it is 30 April 2021
Or did I miss your point?

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Agree. Jan expired this week. There is a Feb21 contract but nobody trades it unless you want to go to delivery - the first notice day on Febs was also this week. So yes, we have a month before you need to worry about delivery on the March contract, which is by far the most liquid contract. (92.5% of COMEX Silver volume was in March yesterday).

Re: Silver Stocks I will try and look. Not sure if the exchange publishes warehouse stock data, as anything in a warehouse is outside of the exchange system. Will see.

Wish Gold would jump 10%. Own a lot more Gold than I do Silver. As I type Bitcoin is also up 14%! (And platinum nearly 4%)

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SMCJB View Post
Agree. Jan expired this week. There is a Feb21 contract but nobody trades it unless you want to go to delivery - the first notice day on Febs was also this week. So yes, we have a month before you need to worry about delivery on the March contract, which is by far the most liquid contract. (92.5% of COMEX Silver volume was in March yesterday).

Re: Silver Stocks I will try and look. Not sure if the exchange publishes warehouse stock data, as anything in a warehouse is outside of the exchange system. Will see.

Wish Gold would jump 10%. Own a lot more Gold than I do Silver. As I type Bitcoin is also up 14%! (And platinum nearly 4%)

If you have a look to let's say COMEX or Barchart, you will notice that some contracts (depending on the commodities) have low volume. For this reasons there are contracts I do not even have a look at
eg SIG21 (Jan): yesterday's volume: 32 contracts
SIH21 (March, FND 28 Feb) the one I'm into, yesterday's volume: 182496 contracts
SIJ21 (April): ...0 contract
SIK21 (May) the one I will roll over to FND 'see previous mail): yesterday's volume: 10416
etc

By replying to Mike on the main topic of wallstreetsbets, I read again the content of in my first link: 'thehappyhawaiian" was saying:
"- going long futures for February or March; if you are a rich bastard and can actually take physical delivery of 1000s of ounces of silver by all means do so. But if you simply settle for cash you are actually part of the problem. We need actual physical delivery, which is what SLV demands and is why SLV is the way to go unless you are going to take delivery"

"Part of the problem"? On this part I totally disagree. I am in Europe sure, but in Europe, physical delivery of commodities traded for an individual trader (not a professional one) are something from the past. It does not happen anymore. I said it earlier. Each one has to check the information from his/her own broker but usually they close automatically your opened position the FND or sometimes a couple of day earlier (it happened for some specific WTI contracts in February!!!).
2nd I completely disagree with this quote as well, simply because the more long contracts of futures or micro futures are bought, the higher the price will go and the higher the pressure will go for squeezing the shorts....they will have to close their positions by buying long contracts or the holder of naked call options will have as well to buy long positions to balance their losses.

If someone still understood it differently after this obvious rationale, please explain me...
I posted on the other topic but you can see that there is room on the COT for more net positive contracts for managed funds and more net negative contracts for commercial just in comparison to one year ago... Note: the other point in red the open interest. It is relatively low, which means that there is room for the OI to go much higher which will probably be related in this case with increase interest and higher prices...

SMJB for the physical ETF what I look at is: physical "redeemable" if it is the correct term, I have to check: meaning if you are rich enough the possibility of getting back the bars of gold or silvers on demand etc. If you are not rich enough the possibility that this can happen is anyway a good sign. For me this is also part of the definition of physical. 2nd the custodian part 3rd the reputation of the custodian. As I said I am in Europe so I didn't investigate some other place, but some of custodian banks have their vaults in Switzerland or London. I prefer where it is in Switzerland. My physical ETF are managed by ZKB Zurich Kantonal Bank (originally ETFs from Julius Baer bank). So do you research...

PS I am in the same situation than you from the 50% of my portfolio allocated in Precious Metals, I own more gold (approx 50%) than silver (approx 29%) and Gold Miners (21%) in my portfolio. 10% of my portfolio is indirectly linked to mainly Copper but of course other metals or PM (ETF basic resources , Anglo American and Rio Tinto).
For Platinum, currently I trade only with Futures, I liquidated my previous physical ETF almost 2 years ago with some losses after 3 years of holding.

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I like to watch the shows on commodities on this channel (still free...)
But this new post is about this one
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/reddit-investors-piling-into-silver-drive-up-prices-a-second-day-1.1556011

PS Talking about other institutions on their target price for Silver...

Quoting 
"However, Citibank has been the biggest proponent of silver. The bank said the metal could reach the price of $US40/oz silver within 6-12 months or even peak to US$50/oz-US$100/oz based on the bank’s technical analysis.
“We see the investment-led deficit in silver continuing in 2021, with the call on silver stocks driving prices up to US$30/oz over the next 3-4 months and up to US$40/oz over the next 6-12 months,” the bank analysts wrote in a note.
[B]“Since the case for silver is in part dependent on investment demand, some portion of the investment community looks at the market’s technicals. It is worth noting that the Citi FX technical team is very bullish silver, with US$50/oz a very realistic target and US$100/oz possible.”
The bank expressed its bullishness on silver following Goldman Sachs’ advice to investors to sell the USD and invest in silver instead.

Source: https://invezz.com/news/2020/11/09/heres-how-gold-oil-and-silver-prices-reacted-to-covid-19-vaccine-news/

PS2
Peter Schiff's podcast. If you want to focus on Silver and gold it is from around 26"
https://www.schiffradio.com/reddit-raiders-ride-silver/


PS3
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2021-01-29/what-will-reddit-do-silver-29-january

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Sagal View Post
If you have a look to let's say COMEX or Barchart, you will notice that some contracts (depending on the commodities) have low volume. For this reasons there are contracts I do not even have a look at
eg SIG21 (Jan): yesterday's volume: 32 contracts
SIH21 (March, FND 28 Feb) the one I'm into, yesterday's volume: 182496 contracts
SIJ21 (April): ...0 contract
SIK21 (May) the one I will roll over to FND 'see previous mail): yesterday's volume: 10416
etc

The liguid Silver Contract Month Cycle is HKNUZ. They do list the prompt couple of months outside of that cycle but I don't know why anyone would trade them given volume and liquidity concerns.

Sagal View Post
By replying to Mike on the main topic of wallstreetsbets, I read again the content of in my first link: 'thehappyhawaiian" was saying:
"- going long futures for February or March; if you are a rich bastard and can actually take physical delivery of 1000s of ounces of silver by all means do so. But if you simply settle for cash you are actually part of the problem. We need actual physical delivery, which is what SLV demands and is why SLV is the way to go unless you are going to take delivery"

"Part of the problem"? On this part I totally disagree. I am in Europe sure, but in Europe, physical delivery of commodities traded for an individual trader (not a professional one) are something from the past. It does not happen anymore. I said it earlier. Each one has to check the information from his/her own broker but usually they close automatically your opened position the FND or sometimes a couple of day earlier (it happened for some specific WTI contracts in February!!!).

Going to delivery for something like currencies is easy, you just need an account for the money to come in and out of. Going to Delivery on something like Silver or Crude is a very different matter. To start with you would need to have a Warehouse Agreement (Silver) or a Cushing Storage Contract (Crude). Then you would need the ability to schedule the actual delivery. In large commodity houses, good operations people are paid extremely well, maybe not as high as traders, but not that far behind. Not as easy as you might think. Then finally most brokers don't want to touch it, even for pros/institutions. It's too much work. Also a huge negative on going to delivery is payment terms. At least in the oil markets payment terms is 15 days after delivery. So if I deliver you crude in February you pay me on March 15th. If you go to Delivery though the exchange makes BOTH SIDES post full collateral BEFORE delivery. So if I'm the buyer I have to pay 45 days earlier than I would do in a bilateral transaction, and if I'm a seller I have to post collateral when I wouldn't normally. No Thanks! That's why most deliveries are actually ADP'd (Alternative Delivery Procedure) to get the exchange out of the middle.

Sagal View Post
2nd I completely disagree with this quote as well, simply because the more long contracts of futures or micro futures are bought, the higher the price will go and the higher the pressure will go for squeezing the shorts....they will have to close their positions by buying long contracts or the holder of naked call options will have as well to buy long positions to balance their losses.

If someone still understood it differently after this obvious rationale, please explain me...
I posted on the other topic but you can see that there is room on the COT for more net positive contracts for managed funds and more net negative contracts for commercial just in comparison to one year ago... Note: the other point in red the open interest. It is relatively low, which means that there is room for the OI to go much higher which will probably be related in this case with increase interest and higher prices...

SMJB for the physical ETF what I look at is: physical "redeemable" if it is the correct term, I have to check: meaning if you are rich enough the possibility of getting back the bars of gold or silvers on demand etc. If you are not rich enough the possibility that this can happen is anyway a good sign. For me this is also part of the definition of physical. 2nd the custodian part 3rd the reputation of the custodian. As I said I am in Europe so I didn't investigate some other place, but some of custodian banks have their vaults in Switzerland or London. I prefer where it is in Switzerland. My physical ETF are managed by ZKB Zurich Kantonal Bank (originally ETFs from Julius Baer bank). So do you research...

There's lots of opinions that if you don't own the physical you don't really own it, not your keys not your coins (crypto), and lots of theories that the banks manipulate the paper markets to keep the physical markets low. I have no idea on the validity of those arguments. I'm a futures trader by profession so access to the futures is easer for me than even something like SLV or GLD, I also enjoy the leverage of futures.

For what its worth I'm also in the camp that I doubt they/WSBs/whoever would be able to squeeze Silver, but since I'm long it would pay nicely if they did!

Sagal View Post
PS I am in the same situation than you from the 50% of my portfolio allocated in Precious Metals, I own more gold (approx 50%) than silver (approx 29%) and Gold Miners (21%) in my portfolio. 10% of my portfolio is indirectly linked to mainly Copper but of course other metals or PM (ETF basic resources , Anglo American and Rio Tinto).
For Platinum, currently I trade only with Futures, I liquidated my previous physical ETF almost 2 years ago with some losses after 3 years of holding.

I have low/mid single digits % of my net worth in precious metals (notional value not margin requirement) split GC-SI-PL (no PA). Actual breakdown changes but its much heavier GC than SI or PL. Also own GDX and XME in my spec (non-investment) account. I think that these are good speculative trades but also think they are good USD hedges. (I live in US and am paid in USD)

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Sprott's podcast at zerohedge on the topic
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2021-01-29/gamestop-action-spills-over-precious-metal-sector-weekly-wrap

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https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/reddit-preparing-unleash-worlds-biggest-short-squeeze-silver


Quoting 
In the 24 hours proceeding Friday market close, SD Bullion sold nearly 10x the number of silver ounces that we normally would sell in an entire weekend leading to Sunday market open.

In a normal market, we normally can find at least one supplier/source willing to sell some ounces over the weekend if we exceed our long position (the number of ounces we predict we will sell over the weekend).

However, everyone we talk to is afraid of a gap up at Sunday night market open.


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448 Central, market opens in 12 mins, SI_H21 opening indication 27.72 vs 26.914 settle

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457 indication 28.035

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458 28.21

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H1 opens 28.45 high trade 29.095

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Interesting the high on QI the 2500oz eMini (Fin settle) is $30, SIL the 1000oz Micro is $29.38 vs SI the 5000oz full size at $29.095. A lot of premium for small size

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Just playing around with TPO charts from Tradovate after watching their webinar last week, decided to pull up the SIH1 chart. Showing 14,500 contracts traded in the first 30 mins vs under 1k last Sunday evening.

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From Twitter:
#Silver has moved up to the #3 position on #WallStreetBets for ticker sentiment. GameStop $GME is still dominating the discussion, but #silvershortsqueezE #silversqueeze is about 9% of the discussion currently. A few days ago silver was #6 and only 2% of the discussion.

Situation 7h after the open for SIH21: 28.8
Gap: +7.73%

PS https://www.apmex.com/pressreleases/apmex-statement-on-current-market-conditions


Quoting 
In the last week, we have seen a dramatic shift in Silver demand from our customers. For example, the ratio of ounces sold per day was running about two times earlier in the week and closer to four times the average demand by the end of the week. Once markets closed on Friday, we saw demand hit as much as six times a typical business day and more than 12 times a normal weekend day. Combined with the extremely high demand levels, we are also seeing a surge in new customers. On Saturday alone, we added as many new customers as we usually add in a week.

Any Precious Metal dealer will take a long position in the futures market to protect against spot price exposure when the markets open. We do this because it is our goal not to take a speculative position on metal. The weekends are unique as we are not able to real-time hedge our position. We took an aggressive position this weekend, but clearly could not have predicted the volumes that were seen. We have partnerships around to world that allowed us to cover these long positions, but only to a point. Once we exceeded our comfort levels, we had little choice but to stop the sale of Silver on our website. This was a difficult decision to make and unprecedented in our history.

As we evaluate the markets, it is difficult to know where Silver's price and demand will go in the coming day and weeks. APMEX is highly capitalized and has more than $150 million in inventory to support demand. We have made strategic decisions to procure additional metal, locking up any metal we can find in the market place. We suspect premiums will rise and rise quickly, as we are seeing significant increases in our costs, when we can even locate the metal. It is also highly likely that we will need an additional day or two to fill orders based on current order counts. The one guarantee we can make to our customers is that you will only be sold metal that is on-site, or we have procured the metal with a firm commitment date from our partners. In markets like this, we feel this is the best approach a retailer can take, as no one can predict product availability.


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mongoose View Post
Just playing around with TPO charts from Tradovate after watching their webinar last week, decided to pull up the SIH1 chart. Showing 14,500 contracts traded in the first 30 mins vs under 1k last Sunday evening.

Yeap volume overnight was higher than it was all day Friday!


Sagal View Post
We have made strategic decisions to procure additional metal, locking up any metal we can find in the market place. We suspect premiums will rise and rise quickly, as we are seeing significant increases in our costs, when we can even locate the metal. It is also highly likely that we will need an additional day or two to fill orders based on current order counts. The one guarantee we can make to our customers is that you will only be sold metal that is on-site, or we have procured the metal with a firm commitment date from our partners.

ie.. we are ready and fully prepared to make as much as possible from the spot premium that we expect to materialize.

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Surprisingly in the end Volume was less than double Friday!

Some wild prices in the spreads - mainly due to illiquidity I suppose. HK had a 53c range, KN 30c, NU 17 and UZ 21c.

On another note CME Gold Margins going up 10% effective Feb 2nd from $11k to $12.1k. Non-member margins probably 110% of this. Didn't see anything about Silver.

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Meanwhile, gold trades an inside day on lower volume and copper prints a little doji right in the middle of last week's range.

Without any participation from either industrial or precious metals, I'd be extremely skeptical of this silver spike. And I certainly wouldn't be paying a large premum for spot right now.

In fact, I'd be almost tempted to look at the GC/SI spread here

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Without Gold participation, it is very difficult for Silver. 28-30 is a strong resistance area. On top of that I noticed that reddit community is quite divided on the Silver issue. I took some profits (micro futures part) and I am prepared for a better entry..."Rolling over" in my mind doesn't mean I am always in anyway but signals more an intention to get in contracts after contracts with each good opportunity...My target for Silver is 36

PS I didn't want to write it before confirmation but effectively on top of that CME/COMEX raised margins request on Silver futures effective end of this day

Quoting 
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange, which operates trading in New York of silver futures and options, said it was raising the margin required to trade silver futures after what it said was a “normal review of market volatility to ensure adequate collateral coverage.”
Analysts warned that the music might stop for retail buyers of silver sooner than it would for small-cap stocks like GameStop. Silver is a significantly larger market and may make it harder to drive prices higher.
“We believe the new entrants into the market may tire and begin to liquidate silver holdings, with a commensurate price impact. Buyer beware,” said James Steel, chief precious-metals analyst at HSBC, in a note late Monday.
The change will come into force after the end of trading Tuesday.

from WSJ

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Maybe I missed it but the CME announcement I saw on Silver margins effected Option Volatility scanning ranges and not margin on the actual futures.

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2021 is the year of metal per Chinese astrology. Good luck traders

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Palladium is primarily used in catalytic converters for cars. It is surprising to see the price increase as the demand for gas powered vehicles will decline significantly in the next decade and onwards.

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Silver is being treated like GameStop in which retail investors have identified the massive short positions on the commodity. I have an account in reddit and they are talking about purchasing silver to cause another short squeeze in the market to weed out hedge funds

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SMCJB View Post
Maybe I missed it but the CME announcement I saw on Silver margins effected Option Volatility scanning ranges and not margin on the actual futures.

I cannot find the exact statement from CME but it is clear that Maintenance margin is now 16500 usd
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/silver_performance_bonds.html

It is also all over the place that the increase is 17.9% (bloomberg, wsj etc,)
From Kitco:


Quoting 
"The precious metal complex (gold, silver, platinum, and palladium) traded under pressure, with all precious metal futures contracts closing sharply lower on the day. Silver futures sustained the largest drawdown, with the most active March contract losing $2.70, a decline of 9.17%, and is currently fixed at $26.71. This action followed the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) decision to raise the margin requirements needed to trade a single contract of Comex silver by 18%. The former margin requirement of 14,000 per 5000 ounces per Comex contract to $16,500."

https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2021-02-02/Silver-plummets-and-gold-sells-off-sharply-following-the-CME-margin-hike.html

It is clear that it is extremely difficult to corner Silver's market as clearinghouse (CME/COMEX and others) can increase at will the requirements for margins. Success remains possible with a long term approach where individuals will buy more and more physical silver, gold, platinum as well as physical ETF of the same and as well with precious metals miners, keep them and then...prices will go up...and stay up...

I have the confirmation by several sources that Silver is also concerned by the India government decision to decrease import custom duty to 7.5% (instead of 12.5%)
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/budget-2021-government-cuts-import-tax-on-gold-silver-to-7-5-from-12-5/articleshow/80628402.cms.

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Sagal View Post
I cannot find the exact statement from CME but it is clear that Maintenance margin is now 16500 usd
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/silver_performance_bonds.html

My apologies. Your right I missed it. CME sent out two Performance Bond Requirements for Metals on Feb 1st. The first (https://www.cmegroup.com/content/dam/cmegroup/notices/clearing/2021/02/Chadv21-047.pdf) included margin changes in Gold, Platinum and changes to the Silver volatility scanning range. The second (https://www.cmegroup.com/notices/clearing/2021/02/Chadv21-048.html) included the Silver margin changes. I missed this one (probably thought it was a duplicate of the first one).

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