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Metals

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  #41 (permalink)
Sagal
Strasbourg, France
 
 
Posts: 127 since Mar 2019
Thanks: 42 given, 96 received

Concerning Gold, do no miss the extensive gold report below from "in gold we trust" (as I mentioned recently I bought Van Eck Gold miners ETF ) and with around 18% of my capital invested in precious metals (mostly gold), I consider that my diversification is on good track and at this stage could be considered over and this up to the first concrete signs of the R or D letter...
https://ingoldwetrust.report/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/In-Gold-We-Trust-2019-Extended-Version-english.pdf


Concerning Copper, I wanted to take a short call option at 3.1 two months ago but I missed the opportunity.
I am not so optimistic with Trump that is as unpredictable as ever. I monitor the situation and prices could go towards 2.55 to 2.48 or towards 3 if sentiment is improving (so with 4 month ahead options it is quite a lottery so I am on the sideline).
Monthly view (sorry for some vertical lines, artefact from another indicator)
Nothing remarkable in the COT for me


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  #42 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
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Sagal View Post
Concerning Gold, do no miss the extensive gold report below from "in gold we trust" (as I mentioned recently I bought Van Eck Gold miners ETF ) and with around 18% of my capital invested in precious metals (mostly gold), I consider that my diversification is on good track and at this stage could be considered over and this up to the first concrete signs of the R or D letter...
https://ingoldwetrust.report/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/In-Gold-We-Trust-2019-Extended-Version-english.pdf


Concerning Copper, I wanted to take a short call option at 3.1 two months ago but I missed the opportunity.
I am not so optimistic with Trump that is as unpredictable as ever. I monitor the situation and prices could go towards 2.55 to 2.48 or towards 3 if sentiment is improving (so with 4 month ahead options it is quite a lottery so I am on the sideline).
Monthly view (sorry for some vertical lines, artefact from another indicator)
Nothing remarkable in the COT for me


I bought small lots of Gold and Silver recently. Will not be very patient in case prices come down again.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #43 (permalink)
Sagal
Strasbourg, France
 
 
Posts: 127 since Mar 2019
Thanks: 42 given, 96 received


Good to know myrddin. I have a Naked Put Option for November on Silver at 13.75. But even if it goes well, it will be far from making up for some recent losses with spread options in May for gold and silver. It was a matter of 10-15 days for Gold and Silver for me that would have made a whole difference...Gold miners went very well after a negative start...
I am not enough confident to go long with futures on gold or silver (considering the long ETF that I hold already)
PS Waiting to reenter Coffee with futures (in any direction) as I took some profits on Friday morning as I exited my 3 long futures ...(and released some mental pressure: with 3 futures and 3 naked option puts on play....it is not easy to witness -6% one day and +3% the other day...)
PS2 As I was replying to a forum guy, I came to this graphs on Dr copper
https://www.yardeni.com/pub/coppercorrel.pdf

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  #44 (permalink)
Sagal
Strasbourg, France
 
 
Posts: 127 since Mar 2019
Thanks: 42 given, 96 received

I doubled my positions on Gold physical ETF GAM and tripled my GDX one since my last message as I sold half of a long term position in Healthcare and keep half of the cash and invested the other part. I am ready to double it again or to invest in Silver physical ETF GAM in the next stage depending of the situation.
I was wondering this morning about the performance of Silver yesterday, then I turned the view on "investing" website to performance and I am less concerned: Siver -1.05% on Friday but +3.29% on the week and +5.17% so far on the month.
The only depressing one is Platinum but on YTD and on one year period better than Silver anyway...
No action on Coffee or Brent futures and I did good to stay aside and listening my little voice (I would have shorted them and I would have been hammered...).
Still on course to be right for OJ from 112 to 95 but I don't care. I lost money there and I don't think I will come back soon on OJ. I removed it from my list of commodities to trade...

By the way you are aware of Paul Tudor's favorite bet for the next 12-24 months aren't you?


and we have Gundlach as well
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/13/bond-king-jeffrey-gundlach-i-am-certainly-long-gold.html

Best regards,
Sagal

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  #45 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
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Sagal View Post
I doubled my positions on Gold physical ETF GAM and tripled my GDX one since my last message as I sold half of a long term position in Healthcare and keep half of the cash and invested the other part. I am ready to double it again or to invest in Silver physical ETF GAM in the next stage depending of the situation.
No action on Coffee or Brent futures and I did good to stay aside and listening my little voice (I would have shorted them and I would have been hammered...).
Still on course to be right for OJ from 112 to 95 but I don't care.

Best regards,
Sagal

Just for your information: I still hold long positions in Gold (GCQ), Coffee (short KCH P1, I already bought back the KCU C1.30), and Orange Juice (OJU). All positions are considered longterm.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #46 (permalink)
Sagal
Strasbourg, France
 
 
Posts: 127 since Mar 2019
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Good to know that you didn't give up GCQ myrrdin.
For me the futures are too volatile and futures/options are less than 5% of my portfolio. To the point that I have the impression that I almost only engage in Futures when my naked put/call options are at stake... Then it is protecting my capital and I do not hesitate...
For long term investment it has to be ETF physical and preferably redeemable and currency hedged in chf and euros (as GAM ex Julius Baer's one).


An interesting article on Cooper. In summary with the latest move from the FED and the trade war ongoing a lid is expected on the price. I hold Stoxx 600 Europe Basic Resources (my way of investing in diamond, copper, iron ore etc.) but I am ready to act...more in the direction of exiting (similarly with Stoxx 600 Europe Oil & Gas)
https://www.cmegroup.com/education/featured-reports/coppers-options-paradox.html?utm_source=pardot&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=economic_research

By the way it was incorrect for me to say that for one year up to know Platinum performed better than Silver. It is the opposite but not by far (I was coming here to correct that)

PS Adam Hamilton calculated that for Gold futures at 1350 USD dollars per contract the leverage is 39.7 and therefore 2.5% rally for gold will wipe out 100% of the capital risked by the short-sellers

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  #47 (permalink)
Sagal
Strasbourg, France
 
 
Posts: 127 since Mar 2019
Thanks: 42 given, 96 received

For Gold, and for many other commodities I checked the latest COT and for Gold it is a nice trend.
The TA is also good (diagonal resistance breached, 78.6% Fibo breached, above Ichimoku cloud weekly etc.)

I am waiting for such a favorable environment since May 2017 (date of my first long investment in Physical Gold ETF redeemable)...

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  #48 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
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Sagal View Post

PS Adam Hamilton calculated that for Gold futures at 1350 USD dollars per contract the leverage is 39.7 and therefore 2.5% rally for gold will wipe out 100% of the capital risked by the short-sellers

I do not understand this sentence. At a price for Gold of 1350 USD a loss of 2.5 % corresponds to a reduction of Gold price of 33.75 USD or a loss of the future trader of 3375 USD. I would not consider this a major loss. I did not check the margin for a gold future, but Mr. Hamilton could mean that a loss of 2.5 % corresponds to the margin for one Gold future. I do not consider this to be relevant.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #49 (permalink)
 SMCJB 
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  #50 (permalink)
Sagal
Strasbourg, France
 
 
Posts: 127 since Mar 2019
Thanks: 42 given, 96 received


@myrrdin and concerning Hamilton, yes it is my understanding as well it is about 2.5% representing the margin and the need to invest more money to stay in. But of course you have to consider the big fishes (they trade a lot of lots).
Even at my level it is something that I feel (I can take 1 futures of coffee C or Cocoa without thinking too much about it but the story is completely different with one futures of gold, silver or copper).

I like to have a good underlying fact/news/trend behind a move to be more confident.
In addition to the global environment: Trade wars with China, Iran, slowing down of the economy, Fed change of policy on interest rates, North Korea and weakening of USD index due among other things to the weaponization of the Dollars by the US administration etc.
There are two other graphs that fit well with the context:
The increase in the total of negative debt and the correlation with Gold (talking about O Hansen, I found this graph in the Daily Shot WSJ and it is available on his account, a similar one was showed today in Bloomberg TV)
The real interest rates that can be followed by the 5 y TIPS
https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GTII5:GOV


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