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Meats

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  #51 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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1. I received information that not the entire plant of Tyson Foods was destroyed, but only part of it.

2. Currently beef packers are enjoying extremely good margins, and, thus, there is a strong incentive to produce as much meat as possible. Other producers will find ways to raise their capacities.

Thus, I think price for Live Cattle will move up again for the 2020 contracts. But they might not reacch the level of last week in the near future.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #52 (permalink)
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Thanks.

From what I have been reading, the number of cattle slaughtered this week isn't too much lower than what were slaughtered last week, so the reaction to the Tyson fire seems to have been overdone.

With this is mind, I went long the LEG20 contract today.

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  #53 (permalink)
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zxcv64 View Post
Thanks.

From what I have been reading, the number of cattle slaughtered this week isn't too much lower than what were slaughtered last week, so the reaction to the Tyson fire seems to have been overdone.

With this is mind, I went long the LEG20 contract today.

The cattle slaughter report published today is for last week. Or do have any special information ?

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #54 (permalink)
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myrrdin View Post
The cattle slaughter report published today is for last week. Or do have any special information ?

Best regards, Myrrdin

I wish I did. I read it in the Hightower report. They mentioned figures for the first 3 days of this week, and compared them to the same period last week.

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  #55 (permalink)
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I opened the HEV19-HEZ19 spread based on seasonals and my previous experience with it.

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  #56 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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zxcv64 View Post
I opened the HEV19-HEZ19 spread based on seasonals and my previous experience with it.

I do not hold any position in the hogs market.

In case there will be an agreement between US and China, hog prices will explode.

In case there is no such agreement, prices will com back.

As I have no idea about the plans of Mr. Trump, I stay out of hog trades.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #57 (permalink)
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myrrdin View Post

In case there will be an agreement between US and China, hog prices will explode.

In case there is no such agreement, prices will com back.

As I have no idea about the plans of Mr. Trump, I stay out of hog trades.

Yes, I agree with this. It's not just hogs, but the equities also seem to be under the magic spell of a Trump tweet. The last 2-3 weeks have a been a roller-coaster for me as I trade a lot of SPX. Wide daily moves are now common place. It rose 80 points between Wed/Thur this week, causing me a lot of damage. One the one hand, I want to be careful of the Trump/China trade war, and on the other, no one really know how long this trade war will go on - it's been like this for around a year, and there seems to be no end-date. On a bigger picture, the US elections next year will be on the minds of both Trump and China, and I'm sure both parties will want to look like they have 'won' the war as the election fever is building up. This cat-and-mouse game could go on for a long while.

Meanwhile, I need to build up more trading experiences in commodities so am doing my trades on a small scale.

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  #58 (permalink)
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First there was China, then North Korea, and potentially South Korea as well.
All of whose primary protein intake is Pork!

Bloomberg : Kim Jong Un May Be Hiding a Hog Apocalypse From the World

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-12/kim-jong-un-may-be-hiding-a-hog-apocalypse-from-the-world

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  #59 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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zxcv64 View Post
Thanks.

From what I have been reading, the number of cattle slaughtered this week isn't too much lower than what were slaughtered last week, so the reaction to the Tyson fire seems to have been overdone.

With this is mind, I went long the LEG20 contract today.

The Tyson plant should be in full operation early January. COT data still is bullish in spite of the strong move upwards of the cattle price.

I still hold a long position in LCG.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #60 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
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Meats are difficult to trade currently because of the uncertainties regarding purchases of the Chinese. In my opinion, downwards moves are overdone now. Thus, I entered the following positions:

-LH P62,
LCJ-LCM,
LCQ.

I suggest to keep position size very limited.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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