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Here's the graph which I forgot to attach (the line is the current intraday price at the time of this post)! Will scale in a bit of long may short june long jul.
@myrrdin: I did some more looking around and I think you're right about liquidity. Earlier intraday the entire hog curve was red with June being the only green one - indicates speculator money piling into only the June contract and dislocating the curve. Also commitment of traders shows fairly high managed money levels in hogs - probably concentrated around the high open interest June contract, suggesting dislocation.
Does anyone have any idea of what happened in 2018 causing the May hog spread to expire at ~11? The butterfly seems not to have too much downside but still don't want to get burnt in these conditions (since the May spread is driving all the action).. Seems like June keeps getting bought and other contracts are left behind, but if speculators keep pushing money into one contract they can pump the market instead of having it correct.
