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Yes, but the market closed exactly where it was trading just before the report came out. When bullish news is unable to move prices higher, it's fair warning for the bulls.
Agree also, but my strategy is still bias long. All the larger sell orders where near the 391 level, and the majority of recent institutional orders are still long presently. That 391 price is also the POC of pre-news chop.
I have been periodically posting in this thread for a few months now and would like to share a little more detail, so here go's.
Since the end of last year, I have been diligently trying to get agriculture in my basket of traded products. I did an extensive study on Corn. At the time it seemed the most attractive. I did some tests using similar strategies I have used in other instruments. I ultimately found some strategies to walk forward using 3 years historical data. I took the most promising and put it under a sim test from November to early April. It was consistent to what I was seeing during my walk forward, so I decided to throw a little live money at it. Just testing the waters, I went small with 1 contract in the Mini stating in April. My first live trade entered on April 27. I am showing my results to date below.
I am considering moving up to 3 regular corn futures contracts, this would align with my account and give balance for a better diversification.
Things I would like to note…
The mini is not very liquid, so 3 (would have been successful) trades did not get triggered. 0 (would have been unsuccessful) trades were missed. All 3 missed trades where in September back to back.
I believe slippage should be slightly better with the regular Corn Future, but I will be increasing Contracts.
This is a swing strategy and holds on average 3 days. Its not a super aggressive strategy, but I like the slow pace for a product first. Historically it enters from 2 to 6 times a month.
Commission was not included in my first 13 trades. Not sure why this was turned off, but totals 23.27.
The live strategy stayed consistent with my testing and sim.
I am going to sleep on it tonight. I am not sure why, but this decision is fun and anxious all at once. Just a year ago, I was putting new strategies live in highly volatile products with no emotions at all. I think the better you get, the more conservative you become. This makes change slightly difficult.
I do not usually share this much info, but it feels nice as I type. At home when I discuss this stuff with my wife, she is like “whatever you think sweetie”. My kids are like “looking at your trading again Dad”. The rest of the family is like “Now what exactly do you do again?”.
Sorry, not anxious in nervous or scared...more like anxious for the change. Been working at it for awhile and no what I need to to do. Really just wanted to share my experience and excitement. I will most likely turn it on tomorrow.
