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Grains & Beans


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Grains & Beans

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  #201 (permalink)
Orlando, Florida
 
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Below is the institutional orders since Tuesday evening for Corn. The majority of todays buying is near the 400 mark. Read it as you will?





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  #202 (permalink)
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Hey Woody,
First off, it's great that you've got this strategy working for you. I hope that your results exceed your expectations. Unfortunately, I'm having a little difficulty following along. Your chart of institutional orders does not show a title or axis labels, so frankly I have no idea what I'm looking at. Which also means I can't respond intelligently. Sorry.

Corn certainly has been bullish, though. With the benefit of hindsight I exited my swing position far too early. I even had another buy signal after the WAASDE report but didn't do anything.



The short-covering that I had been anticipating turned into a major flip long. This positioning story also helps explain corn's recent outperformance vs. soybeans. In beans, speculators seem to have reached full capacity, whereas in corn they clearly still have some room to add.



That said the rally in beans has shown signs of exhaustion, and the hedge fund and CTA community is now quite long across the board in grains. I was tempted to establish a swing short in beans on Monday's weakness but ended up only taking a few small scalps. Still stalking it, though. If corn shows any signs of exhaustion or weakness, or if we get a new tradable high in soybeans, I may have to jump in with a short then.

[COT data and chart are from https://www.barchart.com]

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  #203 (permalink)
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@Schnook The charts are large institutional orders and the price they are entered at. They do serve as a accurate way to see direction in the market traded. The last 3 days have showed strong buying strength in the institutions. Until the institutions show some type of effort short, I would stay long in my trades. Just figured some peeps would like the value in them. I'm not sure many people follow this thread anyways, so I don't have to post. I do realize some of you guys are looking more long term.

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  #204 (permalink)
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I appreciate your posts, as I really do enjoy a good dialogue. I'm just trying to understand what you're saying. As mentioned, that chart doesn't show an x-axis label or any values (probably got cut off in the screengrab?), nor do I have any idea how you define "large institutional orders." Not trying to get you to reveal any secrets, but a chart without axis labels is kinda like a map without street names.

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  #205 (permalink)
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@Schnook
I went ahead and edited the post with the charts to make it more clear what is being showed.

Schnook View Post
I appreciate your posts, as I really do enjoy a good dialogue. I'm just trying to understand what you're saying. As mentioned, that chart doesn't show an x-axis label or any values (probably got cut off in the screengrab?), nor do I have any idea how you define "large institutional orders." Not trying to get you to reveal any secrets, but a chart without axis labels is kinda like a map without street names.

Sent using the futures.io mobile app

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  #206 (permalink)
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@Schnook

One other thing to help clarify...using the data from the charts a VWAP can be made to help see direction. I don't always do this, but if it seems unclear it does help sometimes.



Institutional VWAP from Earlier Post




I went ahead and made one to date as of this post. Still no clear sign of Reversal. Just a little hesitation around the 403/404 area.


Institutional VWAP to Date



You could also look at buy and sell VWAP and monitor the spread.

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  #207 (permalink)
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Just a heads up, Institutions still have showed little attempt to short. All buy orders today...I'm holding long until something is more apparent.



Institutional Orders

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  #208 (permalink)
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Hi Everyone. I am new here. I am looking for Brazilian crop data. Something similar like weekly USDA crop progress. Unfortunately i can't find it on google. There must be somewhat similar site right?

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  #209 (permalink)
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CommodityChip View Post
Hi Everyone. I am new here. I am looking for Brazilian crop data. Something similar like weekly USDA crop progress. Unfortunately i can't find it on google. There must be somewhat similar site right?

CONAB publishes these data for Brazil. They are often cited in the Hightower Report.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #210 (permalink)
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CommodityChip View Post
Hi Everyone. I am new here. I am looking for Brazilian crop data. Something similar like weekly USDA crop progress. Unfortunately i can't find it on google. There must be somewhat similar site right?

Hi CommodityChip

SAFRAS publishes national crop progress data for Brazil, but I think their database is not free and the data is somewhat delayed.
Otherwise IMEA gives good details for Mato Grosso.

Unfortunately Brazilians are not as organised as the US...

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  #211 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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For the European traders:

Trading hours in the US begin 1 hour earlier for 1 week because of the change to Winter Time in Europe. Eg. stock market in New York will open at 2.30 pm Central European Time.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #212 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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To my European friends: Tomorrow is Thanksgiving in the US, and there will be no trading of Grains, Beans and Meats.

To my American friends: Happy Thanksgiving !

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #213 (permalink)
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Somewhat ironic that there's no trading of commodities on thanksgiving

With that said, Happy Thanksgiving!

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  #214 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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I have been asked about educational materials regarding grains & beans.

I get a lot of information from the daily Hightower Report. They write a lot about supply and demand, discuss various reports, talk about COT data and show important developments regarding weather on a daily base.

There are brokers who give excellent information, some only to their customers, and others free to everybody. You might want to choose such broker. I was customer of RJO, where Richard Feltes gave excellent daily information about grains and beans to customers only. I still read reports on grains and beans by Daniels Trading. ( I had to leave US brokers some years ago as there reporting does not comply with Austrian tax law.)

Best regards, Myrrdin

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