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Grains & Beans


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Grains & Beans

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  #21 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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I am still holding the 5*CZ-2*SX spread and the KWH-WH spread. Nothing regarding the fundamentals has changed significantly.

January 12th the next important USDA report on grains and beans will be published. The January report is well known for surprizes.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #22 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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myrrdin View Post
I am still holding the 5*CZ-2*SX spread and the KWH-WH spread. Nothing regarding the fundamentals has changed significantly.

January 12th the next important USDA report on grains and beans will be published. The January report is well known for surprizes.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Index fund rebalancing starting Jan 9th will trigger 60-100K new corn longs. Interesting to note that index funds reduced corn longs in Friday’s CFTC report (corn –down 20K contracts). This should help the spread, as no such rebalancing should happen for soybeans.

The spread has reached the zone where it traded from end of June until early November. Thus, I use a close stop, and intend to close or reduce the position before the USDA report on January 12th.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #23 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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myrrdin View Post
I am still holding the 5*CZ-2*SX spread and the KWH-WH spread. Nothing regarding the fundamentals has changed significantly.

January 12th the next important USDA report on grains and beans will be published. The January report is well known for surprizes.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Liquidated both CBOT spreads today to avoid the risk of an unfavourable USDA report.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #24 (permalink)
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myrrdin View Post
Liquidated both CBOT spreads today to avoid the risk of an unfavourable USDA report.

Best regards, Myrrdin

The 5*CZ-2*SX is now just below -100. Looks like a good place to re-enter.

The KWH-WH has moved up to above 16. I intend to wait for a set-back to re-enter.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #25 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Today (11 am Chicago Time, 18.00 Central European Time) the USDA report will be published. I do not expect it to be a big market mover for grains & beans. But you never know - these reports can include surprizes ...

Best regards, Myrrdin

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WSJ :- The Next American Farm Bust Is Upon Us

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-next-american-farm-bust-is-upon-us-1486572488

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  #27 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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myrrdin View Post
The 5*CZ-2*SX is now just below -100. Looks like a good place to re-enter.

The KWH-WH has moved up to above 16. I intend to wait for a set-back to re-enter.

Best regards, Myrrdin

I am still holding a position in the 5*CZ-2*SX spread, and I am still optimistic that it will move above 0 within the next couple of months (currently -53 c).

I re-entered the KW-W, and will liquidate it just below 20.

The arguments regarding these trades posted some time ago are still valid.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #28 (permalink)
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Industry experts, David Hightower and Joe Vaclavik, discuss the upcoming USDA Prospective Plantings Report to be published on 31 March 2017.
https://www.cmegroup.com/education/featured-reports/market-movers-usda-quarterly-report.html

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  #29 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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myrrdin View Post
I am still holding a position in the 5*CZ-2*SX spread, and I am still optimistic that it will move above 0 within the next couple of months (currently -53 c).

I re-entered the KW-W, and will liquidate it just below 20.

The arguments regarding these trades posted some time ago are still valid.

Best regards, Myrrdin

I was stopped out of the KW-W with a loss. There was a lot of rain in the KW area, that helped to improve quality of KW significantly.

I intend to liquidate the 5*CZ-2*SX spread early next week. The spread has moved up nicely, and is now significantly above 0. This trade, which I hold for several months and which currently shows a significant profit, is a good example that it is easier for me to beat the market longterm than shortterm.

I intend to reduce my trading of grains in the coming months, as we enter a weather market.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #30 (permalink)
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since stocks/usage is pretty high the spread has narrowed and could even go negative..i..e July less than Nov.
if there is a weather concern.. this might rise
am i reading this right?

trying to make sense of the past Hightower reports

https://hightowerreport.com/2014/04/jul-nov-soybean-spread-out-of-whack-with-the-fundamentals/

and

https://hightowerreport.com/2013/04/upside-potential-for-julynovember-soybean-spread/

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