Hey Woody,
First off, it's great that you've got this strategy working for you. I hope that your results exceed your expectations. Unfortunately, I'm having a little difficulty following along. Your chart of institutional orders does not show a title or axis labels, so frankly I have no idea what I'm looking at. Which also means I can't respond intelligently. Sorry.
Corn certainly has been bullish, though. With the benefit of hindsight I exited my swing position far too early. I even had another buy signal after the WAASDE report but didn't do anything.
The short-covering that I had been anticipating turned into a major flip long. This positioning story also helps explain corn's recent outperformance vs. soybeans. In beans, speculators seem to have reached full capacity, whereas in corn they clearly still have some room to add.
That said the rally in beans has shown signs of exhaustion, and the hedge fund and CTA community is now quite long across the board in grains. I was tempted to establish a swing short in beans on Monday's weakness but ended up only taking a few small scalps. Still stalking it, though. If corn shows any signs of exhaustion or weakness, or if we get a new tradable high in soybeans, I may have to jump in with a short then.
@Schnook The charts are large institutional orders and the price they are entered at. They do serve as a accurate way to see direction in the market traded. The last 3 days have showed strong buying strength in the institutions. Until the institutions show some type of effort short, I would stay long in my trades. Just figured some peeps would like the value in them. I'm not sure many people follow this thread anyways, so I don't have to post. I do realize some of you guys are looking more long term.
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I appreciate your posts, as I really do enjoy a good dialogue. I'm just trying to understand what you're saying. As mentioned, that chart doesn't show an x-axis label or any values (probably got cut off in the screengrab?), nor do I have any idea how you define "large institutional orders." Not trying to get you to reveal any secrets, but a chart without axis labels is kinda like a map without street names.
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One other thing to help clarify...using the data from the charts a VWAP can be made to help see direction. I don't always do this, but if it seems unclear it does help sometimes.
Institutional VWAP from Earlier Post
I went ahead and made one to date as of this post. Still no clear sign of Reversal. Just a little hesitation around the 403/404 area.
Institutional VWAP to Date
You could also look at buy and sell VWAP and monitor the spread.
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Hi Everyone. I am new here. I am looking for Brazilian crop data. Something similar like weekly USDA crop progress. Unfortunately i can't find it on google. There must be somewhat similar site right?
SAFRAS publishes national crop progress data for Brazil, but I think their database is not free and the data is somewhat delayed.
Otherwise IMEA gives good details for Mato Grosso.
Unfortunately Brazilians are not as organised as the US...
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Trading hours in the US begin 1 hour earlier for 1 week because of the change to Winter Time in Europe. Eg. stock market in New York will open at 2.30 pm Central European Time.
I have been asked about educational materials regarding grains & beans.
I get a lot of information from the daily Hightower Report. They write a lot about supply and demand, discuss various reports, talk about COT data and show important developments regarding weather on a daily base.
There are brokers who give excellent information, some only to their customers, and others free to everybody. You might want to choose such broker. I was customer of RJO, where Richard Feltes gave excellent daily information about grains and beans to customers only. I still read reports on grains and beans by Daniels Trading. ( I had to leave US brokers some years ago as there reporting does not comply with Austrian tax law.)
Best regards, Myrrdin
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I recently stumbled upon another excellent resource for grains market commentary and analysis, from Benson Quinn Commodities. The commentaries are distributed via email, and if anyone is interested you can sign up here: https://www.bqci.com/fccp-bqci-commentary-signup-18990
Meanwhile today's WASDE was a little less bullish than expected. I haven't done much in the grains markets lately, as the broader trend and supply/demand fundamentals lean bullish, while speculator positioning looks excessively long.
Charts maybe starting to turn less bullish though, with beans unable to regain their January high and corn rejecting 570s on the daily. Are the highs in, or will China surprise us with more aggressive buying?
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