Grains & Beans - futures io
futures io



Grains & Beans


Discussion in Commodities

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one myrrdin with 125 posts (152 thanks)
    2. looks_two WoodyFox with 40 posts (33 thanks)
    3. looks_3 SMCJB with 34 posts (49 thanks)
    4. looks_4 Schnook with 31 posts (42 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one Schnook with 1.4 thanks per post
    2. looks_two SMCJB with 1.4 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 myrrdin with 1.2 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 WoodyFox with 0.8 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 48,489 views
    2. thumb_up 332 thanks given
    3. group 50 followers
    1. forum 292 posts
    2. attach_file 42 attachments




Welcome to futures io: the largest futures trading community on the planet, with well over 150,000 members
  • Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
  • Quality education from leading professional traders
  • We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
  • We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

 
Search this Thread
 

Grains & Beans

(login for full post details)
  #11 (permalink)
 jokertrader 
NYC, NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra, TT
Broker: N/A
Trading: Spread Researcher and crypto degen
 
Posts: 653 since May 2013
Thanks: 545 given, 360 received


myrrdin View Post
Sold the SN-SX at 37.25 with a target of 20 or lower. Stop on a close above the recent highs.

While crude oil price moved upwards strongly soybeans did not follow. To me it looks like beans are coming down again.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Just trying to learn. So SN7-SX7 to go to 20 from 37.2 means the spread should narrow
This can happen if
a) N - July falls compared to X - Nov
b) Nov rises compares to July
c) or both

So you hoping SN will move down because of South America crop?
and
SX will move up due to increase in acreage?

thanks in advance

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to jokertrader for this post:

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on futures io?
NT8 - Footprint Chart adding on code
NinjaTrader
Hey! Is there a way to change the date and symbol on a c …
EasyLanguage Programming
use of Ultimate Oscillator in NT8
NinjaTrader
Historical Tick Data for E-mini Futures
The Elite Circle
Moving Average Price Scan
ThinkOrSwim
 
Best Threads (Most Thanked)
in the last 7 days on futures io
Spoo-nalysis ES e-mini futures S&P 500
12 thanks
Cycle Analysis... a way of looking at price action.
8 thanks
Want your NinjaTrader indicator created, free?
7 thanks
Basic Education for Beginner Trader
7 thanks
TST/OneUp/LeeLoo/Earn2Trade
4 thanks
 
(login for full post details)
  #12 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TWS
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: Commodities
 
Posts: 1,913 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 3,341 given, 2,626 received


jokertrader View Post
Just trying to learn. So SN7-SX7 to go to 20 from 37.2 means the spread should narrow
This can happen if
a) N - July falls compared to X - Nov
b) Nov rises compares to July
c) or both

So you hoping SN will move down because of South America crop?
and
SX will move up due to increase in acreage?

thanks in advance

I assume that SN will move down because of large South American crop, demand being directed to South America, and increase of acreage.

SX should move down as well, but not as fast.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #13 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TWS
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: Commodities
 
Posts: 1,913 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 3,341 given, 2,626 received



myrrdin View Post
Bought the SMH-BOH yesterday before the close. Stop on a close below the recent los.

This spread was driven down by BO, but now all relevant news should be priced in. BO did not move upwards with CL yesterday - a sign for weekness.

Best regards, Myrrdin

The stop was reached yesterday at close. Bought back the spread.

I am still optimistic that the lows are near, and that there will be a strong move upwards longterm.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #14 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TWS
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: Commodities
 
Posts: 1,913 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 3,341 given, 2,626 received


myrrdin View Post
Sold the SN-SX at 37.25 with a target of 20 or lower. Stop on a close above the recent highs.

While crude oil price moved upwards strongly soybeans did not follow. To me it looks like beans are coming down again.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Bought back the SN-SX spread with a small profit.

The price reacted bullish on a report I would consider slightly bearish. In my opinion, the reaction to a report is more important than the report itself.

The spread did not move down as I had expected. In recent years, the final demand almost always was higher than the demand suggested in the December USDA Report. Thus, the January report could show a bullish surprize, and traders could anticipate this surprize, and buy beans.

I still hold the corn minus soybeans spread.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #15 (permalink)
 jokertrader 
NYC, NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra, TT
Broker: N/A
Trading: Spread Researcher and crypto degen
 
Posts: 653 since May 2013
Thanks: 545 given, 360 received

Curious how the corn minus bean has fared? Jan report prob a mover and we should know about weather as well so what plans to hold or get out - thnx


Sent from my iPhone using futures.io mobile app

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #16 (permalink)
 mattz   is a Vendor
 
 
mattz's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,489 since Sep 2010
Thanks: 2,431 given, 3,774 received


jokertrader View Post
Curious how the corn minus bean has fared? Jan report prob a mover and we should know about weather as well so what plans to hold or get out - thnx


Sent from my iPhone using futures.io mobile app

@jokertrader, you can get ag reports that ADM sends out. I believe it is available via the portal.

Thanks,
Matt Z
Optimus Futures

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You may lose more than your initial investment. All posts are opinions and do not claim to be facts. Please conduct your own due diligence. Use only Risk capital when trading Futures.
1 800 771 6748 local 561 367 8686 email [email protected]
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to mattz for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #17 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TWS
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: Commodities
 
Posts: 1,913 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 3,341 given, 2,626 received


jokertrader View Post
Curious how the corn minus bean has fared? Jan report prob a mover and we should know about weather as well so what plans to hold or get out - thnx


Sent from my iPhone using futures.io mobile app

The spread is profitable, and I intend to hold it for some more time.

My main argument is the assumption that acreage will move from corn (and wheat) to beans in the US. Currently soybeans are expensive compared to corn and wheat.

January USDA Report often is a market mover, but it is hard to predict. I do not expect large moves to the upside for beans, as there are a lot them around, and as big crops often are underestimated by the trade. But is also true that final demand often is underestimated by USDA.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to myrrdin for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #18 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TWS
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: Commodities
 
Posts: 1,913 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 3,341 given, 2,626 received

Yesterdays acreage estimates by Informa, a well known researcher for grains & beans:

US 2017 corn acres near 90,151 mil vs 94,310 mil*(2016) -4,159 mil
US 2017 soybean acres near 88,892 vs 83,648*(2016) +5,244


If realized, this would be strongly bullish for the 5*CZ-2*SX spread. Probably the truth will be in between these estimated values and the values for 2016. The estimates are based on the current value for the spread, but corn might be more expensive in relation to beans when the farmers make their decisions.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to myrrdin for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #19 (permalink)
 jokertrader 
NYC, NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra, TT
Broker: N/A
Trading: Spread Researcher and crypto degen
 
Posts: 653 since May 2013
Thanks: 545 given, 360 received

Best site to track actual rainfall vs predictions in South America ?? I think this will be useful to predict movement? Also how much rain is needed for beans? Would be good to know these things to predict how the crop might turn out the best I could find was cpc.noaa.gov


Sent from my iPhone using futures.io mobile app

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to jokertrader for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #20 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TWS
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: Commodities
 
Posts: 1,913 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 3,341 given, 2,626 received



jokertrader View Post
Best site to track actual rainfall vs predictions in South America ?? I think this will be useful to predict movement? Also how much rain is needed for beans? Would be good to know these things to predict how the crop might turn out the best I could find was cpc.noaa.gov


Sent from my iPhone using futures.io mobile app

Good brokers, experienced in trading of grains and beans, will not only send you the actual weather forecasts, but also interprete them for you. But they are more expensive than other brokers, who do not provide such service.

You might want to check if it does make sense for you to have one (small ?) account for the longterm trades (here fees are not so important) with a broker specialized in the commodities you want to trade, and one with a cheap broker for other trades.

A free source is the weekly newsletter of Water Street Solutions.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to myrrdin for this post:


futures io Trading Community Traders Hideout Commodities > Grains & Beans


Last Updated on May 28, 2022


Upcoming Webinars and Events
 

NinjaTrader Indicator Challenge!

Ongoing
     



Copyright © 2022 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada), info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts