Just trying to learn. So SN7-SX7 to go to 20 from 37.2 means the spread should narrow
This can happen if
a) N - July falls compared to X - Nov
b) Nov rises compares to July
c) or both
So you hoping SN will move down because of South America crop?
and
SX will move up due to increase in acreage?
thanks in advance
The following user says Thank You to jokertrader for this post:
The price reacted bullish on a report I would consider slightly bearish. In my opinion, the reaction to a report is more important than the report itself.
The spread did not move down as I had expected. In recent years, the final demand almost always was higher than the demand suggested in the December USDA Report. Thus, the January report could show a bullish surprize, and traders could anticipate this surprize, and buy beans.
@jokertrader, you can get ag reports that ADM sends out. I believe it is available via the portal.
Thanks,
Matt Z
Optimus Futures
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The following 2 users say Thank You to mattz for this post:
The spread is profitable, and I intend to hold it for some more time.
My main argument is the assumption that acreage will move from corn (and wheat) to beans in the US. Currently soybeans are expensive compared to corn and wheat.
January USDA Report often is a market mover, but it is hard to predict. I do not expect large moves to the upside for beans, as there are a lot them around, and as big crops often are underestimated by the trade. But is also true that final demand often is underestimated by USDA.
Best regards, Myrrdin
The following 2 users say Thank You to myrrdin for this post:
Yesterdays acreage estimates by Informa, a well known researcher for grains & beans:
US 2017 corn acres near 90,151 mil vs 94,310 mil*(2016) -4,159 mil
US 2017 soybean acres near 88,892 vs 83,648*(2016) +5,244
If realized, this would be strongly bullish for the 5*CZ-2*SX spread. Probably the truth will be in between these estimated values and the values for 2016. The estimates are based on the current value for the spread, but corn might be more expensive in relation to beans when the farmers make their decisions.
Best regards, Myrrdin
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Best site to track actual rainfall vs predictions in South America ?? I think this will be useful to predict movement? Also how much rain is needed for beans? Would be good to know these things to predict how the crop might turn out the best I could find was cpc.noaa.gov
Good brokers, experienced in trading of grains and beans, will not only send you the actual weather forecasts, but also interprete them for you. But they are more expensive than other brokers, who do not provide such service.
You might want to check if it does make sense for you to have one (small ?) account for the longterm trades (here fees are not so important) with a broker specialized in the commodities you want to trade, and one with a cheap broker for other trades.
A free source is the weekly newsletter of Water Street Solutions.
Best regards, Myrrdin
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