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There a good reasons to get long this spread in the near future:
For the September contract, there was a large delivery of KW against the W contract. As price level is even lower now this will probably happen again for the December contract.
Soybean harvest in Kansas was just 13 % complete at the end of last week. Double crop Wheat after Soybeans might get difficult for some farmers. Thus, there could be a decline of plantings for HRW.
There are rumors that China will buy HRW in the first phase of the trade pact.
Seasonal charts show a strong upwards move from early January onwards.
Because of the low price for HRW also for the new crop contracts, farmers might decide to plant other Grains for 2019/2020.
I am long the March, July and September contracts. I assume that the new crop contracts will end up above 0. This crop currently is planted.
Oats. I notice that this spread ZOH20-ZOU20 has risen a lot lately. I know little about the fundamentals behind this, as I am currently travelling and just stumbled upon this technical overbought situation.
In the grains & beans, I currently only trade inter-commodity spreads.
The reason: There are two possibilities: Either there will be a deal between China and the US, or there will be no such deal. Eihter prices of grains & beans will move up strongly, or not.
As foreseeing the politics of Mr. Trump is about as difficult as foreseeing the long term weather, I do not trade grains & beans outright.
Thus, I do not study a lot about grain prices, and have no idea about the reason for the current strong price movement in oats.
I am still long the KW-W spread in the new crop contracts (N, U, Z), after rolling the March contract to December. Some day the spread will cross the 0-line - but I have no idea when.
I liquidated the SN-SX spread some days ago with a (very) small profit.
After publication of the acreage estimates, I bought the SX-CZ. The spread should move upwards - even significantly in case the Chinese decide to buy beans.
Sorry - I am unable to find a direct link and post it here. But Googling "cmegroup" "vsr-whitepaper" should direct you to a pdf explaining the concept.
