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I have contacted MRCI and they are very responsive.
Does any one have statistical performance for the monthly picks of the seasonal spreads over the past few years to help me compare the performance versus other type of trading? This is important to decide the capital needed for the investment and its return annually.
Also does any one have a strategy, like when to exit a losing trade at a certain maximum drawdown, targets, re-entry? Do you use options or outrights to form the spread... ?
I am planning to use IB as a broker for this trading, does IB has most of these spreads as a single ticket ? or you need to form the spread? which tool at IB u r using for seasonal spreads ? Spreadtrader ?
Is there any source for fundamentals for the different spreads than the treasury spreads as it is new area for me, specially agriculture, I am mainly a technical trader and need to know the fundamental background for all the monthly spreads in different sectors, energy, ags, etc
Does the exchange recognize spreads in two different commodities like corn vs soybeans or it recognizes only calendar spreads in same commodity like CL front and back month ?
I noticed there is other sites like MRCI like seasonal algo , is it enough to use one or you need both ?
Does any one still trade this style as the thread is a bit inactive? we can form a Skype or Discord group to discuss the trades too in addition to the forum?
I am still doing quite a lot of seasonal trades. But as I did not receive many answers to my comments regarding trades, I stopped posting them. But of course I can begin again. I would prefer posting the trades here, and not use other media.
I never measured statistical performance for my own trading systematically. I check, if the profit is satisfying, and this is it. But on the MRCI-site you find somewhere the profit you would make in case you follow all of their suggestions. But of course this does not include your own measures to optimize entry / exit points. You could also contact Jerry Toepke from MRCI, who publishes a Newsletter including trade suggestions. I am sure he will be able to give you a good answer.
I use outrights or spreads to follow seasonal trades, rarely short options.
IB does have most of the spreads as single tickets, some not guaranteed.
There are many sources for fundamental data. David Hightower covers all commodities usually traded in the US by retail traders. In my opinion, it does make sense to start with one commodity (or a small group of similar commodities). There is a lot to learn.
Yes, most spreads are recognized, and you will receive significantly reduced margins. Exceptions are spreads with two legs from different exchanges.
I work with MRCI, and I am happy with this site. You could buy the "Weekly Spread Commentary", published by Jerry. I am sure he will give you information on the fundamentals of the trades he suggests.
Currently, I do not hold any trade that is fully based on seasonal data. For more than a year, the consequences of COVID 19 overlap seasonal effects. If you look at the seasonal charts there are not many good agreements with the daily charts.
The few trades I entered, eg. Orange Juice some weeks ago, did not work well. A successful trade was the RBN-HON.
I received feedback from MRCI that 2020 results were odd.
This brings the next question, what are the major spreads in each sector that we can trade as a spread irrespective of seasonality.
For example , I trade yield spreads independent from seasonality but it has all advantages of spread trading as reduce margin and non directionality of price move.. what are the main major spreads in each sector as energy, agriculture, grains, meat, soft, etc...
As I mentioned before, 2020 was a very difficult year for seasonal trades because of COVID 19. Seasonal trades should come back in a couple of months.
Examples for popular spreads, which are independent of the price movement of the underlyings, include RB-HO, CL-HO, CL-RB, CL-NG, S-2C, C-W, KW-W, LC-LH. I do not know of a good example for softs.
I can confirm this. This year the only spreads I traded were Lean Hogs and Nat Gas. Lean Hogs not successful while Nat Gas mitigated some of the loss on Lean Hogs. April has been quiet wrt spreads.
Regards
