Softs (Fundamentals)
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Softs (Fundamentals)


Commodities

Created September 9th 2016 by myrrdin
Updated November 1st 2019 by myrrdin
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Softs (Fundamentals)

  #81 (permalink)
Strasbourg, France
 
 
Posts: 80 since Mar 2019
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Sagal View Post
One step closer to 95 (from 112) for OJ after today (day view).

It took some time but here we are just below 95 for OJ

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  #82 (permalink)
London, UK
 
 
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Sugar SBH20

Not sure what to make of Sugar. It's massively oversold due to various fundamentals. On a technical basis, there is a good seasonal coming up, where buying the H contract is profitable.Only once in the last 10 years has the price been as low as it is in Sep.

I'm thinking of going long with protective puts.

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  #83 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
Trading Experience: Advanced
Platform: Zaner360, TWS, Vantage
Broker/Data: DeCarley, IAB, RJO
Favorite Futures: Commodities
 
Posts: 1,607 since Nov 2014
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zxcv64 View Post
Not sure what to make of Sugar. It's massively oversold due to various fundamentals. On a technical basis, there is a good seasonal coming up, where buying the H contract is profitable.Only once in the last 10 years has the price been as low as it is in Sep.

I'm thinking of going long with protective puts.

Additionally COT data is extremely bullish.

Iam long the SBH contract.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #84 (permalink)
Lincoln, NE
 
 
Posts: 11 since Oct 2019
Thanks: 3 given, 13 received

Some questions in general

Hello @myrrdin and co.
I had some quick questions on fundamental analysis (in general) and thought it would be best to ask here in case others wanted these answered.

1) I know retail traders who use fundamentals have to trade longer timeframes, but what is the average trade length? Weeks-months? I'm wondering if it's possible to catch swings with the data - obviously intraday isn't really possible.

2) Is it best to stick to one commodity or diversify? If I stick to only one I'm worried not enough trading opportunities will present themselves. However by the same token, learning multiple commodities at once seems very daunting.

3) When trading I'm assuming you use charts for extra confirmation but the bulk of your decision making is based off of fundamental data - my question is: for commodities, do you also look at specific companies who might influence the price (ex: monsanto, etc) or is the data + charts for confirmation enough to make an informed decision?

4) Are there any books you would recommend for baseline knowledge, or is basic economic knowledge or supply/demand usually enough to get you started?

Sorry for a lot of questions. Take your time answering.

Regards

Nick

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  #85 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
Trading Experience: Advanced
Platform: Zaner360, TWS, Vantage
Broker/Data: DeCarley, IAB, RJO
Favorite Futures: Commodities
 
Posts: 1,607 since Nov 2014
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HI Nick,

thank you for asking. This is an important contribution to this forum. Without good questions, there will be no answers, and no discussion forum.

ad 1): My trades usually have a time frame from some weeks to some months. My experience with shorter time frames is not good.

ad 2): I prefer trading several commodities (Grains & Beans, Meats, Softs, and Energies), but it takes a lot of time to follow all of them. I am retired, and, thus, have enough time. The main advantage is that your account size will move more smoothly when trading several commodities. One winner compensates for one looser. But I also know traders who are successfully trading only one of these groups, eg. energies.

ad 3): I do not look at the company data that you follow when trading stocks of these companies. But of course there are fundamental influences from large companies that I follow. Eg. some weeks ago a meat plant (approx. 8 % of the US capacity) burnt down, and this influenced the Live cattle price significantly. Thus, I tried to find out when the production site will be in full operation again.

ad 4): There is a number of good books and internet services. My recommendation depends a lot on your current knowledge. Are you interested in the basics (how do futures and options work) ? Are you interested in Supply and Demand ? Are you interested in COT data ? Are you interested in seasonal trading ? Etc.

Please feel free to ask further questions.

Best regards, Myrrdin



Nitbean View Post
Hello @myrrdin and co.
I had some quick questions on fundamental analysis (in general) and thought it would be best to ask here in case others wanted these answered.

1) I know retail traders who use fundamentals have to trade longer timeframes, but what is the average trade length? Weeks-months? I'm wondering if it's possible to catch swings with the data - obviously intraday isn't really possible.

2) Is it best to stick to one commodity or diversify? If I stick to only one I'm worried not enough trading opportunities will present themselves. However by the same token, learning multiple commodities at once seems very daunting.

3) When trading I'm assuming you use charts for extra confirmation but the bulk of your decision making is based off of fundamental data - my question is: for commodities, do you also look at specific companies who might influence the price (ex: monsanto, etc) or is the data + charts for confirmation enough to make an informed decision?

4) Are there any books you would recommend for baseline knowledge, or is basic economic knowledge or supply/demand usually enough to get you started?

Sorry for a lot of questions. Take your time answering.

Regards

Nick


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  #86 (permalink)
Lincoln, NE
 
 
Posts: 11 since Oct 2019
Thanks: 3 given, 13 received


myrrdin View Post
HI Nick,

thank you for asking. This is an important contribution to this forum. Without good questions, there will be no answers, and no discussion forum.

ad 1): My trades usually have a time frame from some weeks to some months. My experience with shorter time frames is not good.

ad 2): I prefer trading several commodities (Grains & Beans, Meats, Softs, and Energies), but it takes a lot of time to follow all of them. I am retired, and, thus, have enough time. The main advantage is that your account size will move more smoothly when trading several commodities. One winner compensates for one looser. But I also know traders who are successfully trading only one of these groups, eg. energies.

ad 3): I do not look at the company data that you follow when trading stocks of these companies. But of course there are fundamental influences from large companies that I follow. Eg. some weeks ago a meat plant (approx. 8 % of the US capacity) burnt down, and this influenced the Live cattle price significantly. Thus, I tried to find out when the production site will be in full operation again.

ad 4): There is a number of good books and internet services. My recommendation depends a lot on your current knowledge. Are you interested in the basics (how do futures and options work) ? Are you interested in Supply and Demand ? Are you interested in COT data ? Are you interested in seasonal trading ? Etc.

Please feel free to ask further questions.

Best regards, Myrrdin


Thank you for your answers.

I am interested in seasonal trading so as to keep a smooth trading schedule. My father is a farmer so I have an interest in corn/soybeans and coffee as well. Although Iíd be willing to add more to make sure I can trade year-round. I am an engineering student and soon will be working at a firm, so longer term trades are better for me.

Have you been trading since before you retired? I hope to be able to trade full time relatively soon in order to pursue economic freedom. I know Iím still young but the workforce takes a lot out of people.

I would say Iím curious on how to interpret fundamental data (COT, news, etc) as well as where to acquire it. Any and all resources would be appreciated. I have rudimentary knowledge of how futures work.

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  #87 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
Trading Experience: Advanced
Platform: Zaner360, TWS, Vantage
Broker/Data: DeCarley, IAB, RJO
Favorite Futures: Commodities
 
Posts: 1,607 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 2,177 given, 2,135 received


Nitbean View Post
Thank you for your answers.

I am interested in seasonal trading so as to keep a smooth trading schedule. My father is a farmer so I have an interest in corn/soybeans and coffee as well. Although Iíd be willing to add more to make sure I can trade year-round. I am an engineering student and soon will be working at a firm, so longer term trades are better for me.

Have you been trading since before you retired? I hope to be able to trade full time relatively soon in order to pursue economic freedom. I know Iím still young but the workforce takes a lot out of people.

I would say Iím curious on how to interpret fundamental data (COT, news, etc) as well as where to acquire it. Any and all resources would be appreciated. I have rudimentary knowledge of how futures work.

Yes, I traded many years before my retirement. For us in Europe it is helpful that the main trading hours in the US are after our normal working hours.

I would begin reading books on how futures and options work. You should perfectly understand these things. The books by Carley Garner are well suited in my opinion, but there are many others.

Regarding seasonal charts I am long time customer of MRCI, regarding COT data I learnt a lot from the book and the homepage of Floyd Upperman.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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