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The CL Crude-analysis Thread


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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

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 tturner86 
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Since I was on the ignore list for IT7 I can't post to the thread he started. So I figured I would start a new thread to discuss CL.

I have been observing it and will start to take some trades in it.

This is open to everyone. Please feel free to post ideas and trades.

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 tturner86 
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Saudi Arabia's Political Play In Oil - Business Insider

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 lemons 
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 trendisyourfriend 
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Did look at the CL using my good old metatrader platform. Different than NT profiles but gives a good enough picture of the landscape.

There was an excellent short at a level of supply on the weekly chart (30 min.) corresponding to the monthly VAL. So we are back around the weekly open with a series of HH HL pointing up but within the value area on the weekly chart but out of balance on the monthly. Would be interesting to see price returning within the monthly value area to activate the bulls in us all. However, there is no hurry to take every change of direction. Wait for a good short area as it is the path of least resistance.


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 lemons 
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Looking bounce of at PP

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 tturner86 
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Is The 'Oil Glut' A Myth? | Seeking Alpha

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 SMCJB 
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I agree "Oil Glut" is probably an over dramatization. The big difference between now and 2009 that he references is that in 2009 we saw temporary demand destruction and people were expecting demand to come back, one reason long dated prices were significantly higher than spot. Today people do not expect a significant shift in supply/demand over the next year, hence why they long dated curve has plummeted as well and we do not see the contango that we did in 2009.

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 trendisyourfriend 
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There were two opportunities to the upside. One at 6:00am EST and another at 8:00am EST after a bounce from the value area low (weekly) and a higher high price did pullback to a micro level of support twice.


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 TheShrike 
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I'll be watching to see what happens at 59. Could go up, could go down, could not even get there, but that's where I'm looking to make my next decision.

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 SMCJB 
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WTI and EUR:USD from June 1st till the day before the OPEC Meeting had a 93.5% correlation.


Since the OPEC meeting WTI has plummeted but correlation with EUR:USD has broken down.


Not sure, what if anything that means, but hey I found it interesting.

Can't take credit for the idea, saw it in a presentation by Doug Huggins of Quantitative Markets Analysis in London, although I'm not sure what his exact time period was and he used Brent not WTI,

Charts show NYMEX CL & CME 6E closing prices.

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Time to buy then ... dont you think?


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 gain247 
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... or maybe sell the EURUSD

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 tturner86 
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Annotated History Of Oil Prices Since 1861 - Business Insider

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 tturner86 
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Southwest Is Allowed To Keep Oil Trades Secret For 2 Weeks - Business Insider

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 tturner86 
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 tigertrader 
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a gift for your thread...

The CL Crude-analysis Thread-eia_what_drives_crude_oil_prices.pdf

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 tturner86 
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tigertrader View Post
a gift for your thread...

Attachment 170743

A gift indeed, as I was having a hard time finding it. Thank you.

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 rmejia 
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I was lost looking at your chart with the VWAP, wondering when price crossed the VWAP today... what a difference having overnight on or off does:


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 tturner86 
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I was lost looking at your chart with the VWAP, wondering when price crossed the VWAP today... what a difference having overnight on or off does:


ETH vwap is something to watch, price can easily interact with and around it.

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 tigertrader 
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if i traded oil regularly, i would have a desktop that took a kind-of top-down approach to looking at the market. it's a macro approach that helps develop a framework for your analysis; this in turn helps you assess the overall context of the market, and determine what information is relevant and currently driving price. you'll have more conviction in your trades and more confidence in your decisions. so, if a trade moves against you 10 tics or with you10 tics, you'll have a much better idea whether you should be looking to get out, hold, or add.


weekly pivot just to put price into perspective


15 min vwap, 60min monthly vwap, mp, and daily chart


oil's version of the $vix for volatility, commodity sector etf, canadian dollar and gasoline
are currently the 2 highest correlated instruments to crude


point&figure ( w/gomi cd) gives you a very good visual representation of price-action


gomi ladder is for order flow

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 WilleeMac 
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@tigertrader

Thank you for the pdf

It got me to thinking/ research etc

Here's a list of the many different oils and country of origin

Within the pdf we've a graph of WTI (USA, Ok) , Brent (UK) , Dubai , Tapis (Malaysia) , Mars (USA, Gulf Coast)

List of crude oil products - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

-Bill_M

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 SMCJB 
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Within the pdf we've a graph of WTI (USA, Ok) , Brent (UK) , Dubai , Tapis (Malaysia) , Mars (USA, Gulf Coast)

Of those only Brent & WTI have liquid financial markets.
Dubai, Tapis & Mars do all trade but mostly over-the-counter ("OTC") and not electronically.
LLS (Light Louisiana Sweet) is another crude that trades regularly OTC.
If your doing research you might want to add Oman & Urals (Russian) to your research list but not sure either trades financially.

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 WilleeMac 
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@SMCJB

Thank you

I did not realize there's that many different grades of black goo, the reason for post

/CL is about all I can or want to handle (no pun intended)

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 WilleeMac 
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Here's a FREE service to add to your toolbox

tothetick dot com

What they provide is daily email's with download/ fillable pdf's for the major futs

As well they use settlement price for this, that, and the other........

-Bill

Full disclosure - I have no interest in this service, only an FYI

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WilleeMac View Post
@SMCJB

Thank you

I did not realize there's that many different grades of black goo, the reason for post

/CL is about all I can or want to handle (no pun intended)

-Bill

Oh yeah there are hundreds of different types of crude that all yield very different products when run through a refinery. Almost every crude field produces a different crude.

Unbeknownst to most the NYMEX Crude Contract ISN'T a WTI contract, it's actually Light Sweet Crude contract. There are long list of crudes that you can deliver into the contract at varying price differentials. It get's called WTI though because that is the benchmark crude for the differentials and the crude that in reality is nearly always delivered. Similarly what we call Brent is not actually Brent any more. Brent production has declined to the point that have had to include other similar North Sea crudes. The Brent Index is now actually a BFOE index representing Brent, Forties, Oseberg & Ekofisk. (Brent in itself is actually 'Brent Blend' as it's a mixture of several different close proximity North Sea Fields.)

Sweet (Sour) crudes are crudes that have Low (High) sulfur content.
Light crudes have a low density and yield a high proportion of light hydrocarbon fractions such as Gasoline, Diesel, Jet etc
Heavy crudes have a high density and yield a high proportion of heavy hydrocarbon fractions such as Fuel Oil.

A Light Sweet Crude (such as Brent & WTI) will yield a lot of high value petroleum products () that have a low sulfur content. (ie Low Sulfur Gasoline & Diesel)
A Heavy Sour Crude will yield more lower value petroleum products (Fuel Oil etc) that have a high sulfur content.

Not surprisingly Light Crudes are worth more than Heavy Crudes and Sweet Crudes are worth more than Sour Crudes.

For anybody interested Petroleum Refining for the Non-Technical Person <Amazon Link> is an old but excellent book.

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I'm in! Not sure at this point since everyone is looking for the bottom. I wonder where the big boys have decided it will be?

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DiemTrader View Post
I'm in! Not sure at this point since everyone is looking for the bottom. I wonder where the big boys have decided it will be?



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@trendwaves

As good a call as any

-Bill

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 WilleeMac 
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Throwing this out there (@trendwaves , @DiemTrader, et al)

There's some interesting volume showing up

12-16-14 my guess is folks are squaring up for contract roll, it may have started on 12-12 and 12-15. (Also we have the comments (OPEC?) no price is to low for oil, go to hell Russia and North Dakota.)

12-18 actual roll

Typical Holiday volume

However volume this week esp TUE WED & FRI

Reminds me of that Dodge commercial "you about to find out"

Anyway food for thought

-Bill




EDIT2

The above numbers are based on CME settlement, not platform close

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 PandaWarrior 
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trendwaves View Post

December 2015 crude jumped $6.73 on Thursday.....might mean something???????

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 WilleeMac 
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^^^^not only that but a hefty OI as well

-Bill

EDIT

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude_quotes_settlements_futures.html

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 Big Mike 
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 rizwaanlatif 
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33.20

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 Underexposed 
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I think your choices are too limiting $30 would seem too low and $70 is fine and it will get there eventually but most "experts" do not expect that the rise will be rapid...




I think $40.00ish would be a reasonable bottom.... God I hope so for the sake of the Canadian economy. My province, Alberta derives an increasingly amount of It seems I am now on the thread starters ignrevenues from Oil and Gas



If this fall continues past $40 there will be untold hardship here trickling down to the lowest levels as the the oil industry supports more than just governments... services, supply industries and the jobs associated will disappear, cities that depend on taxes from those industries will suffer in infrastructure maintenance lack... the domino falling continues.

As you can see from the first chart...$40ish oil was the limit of the fall during the financial crisis of 2008-09. I don't know what the end game of Saudi Arabia is but the USA opening the export gates to increase the availability of oil does not help Canada AT ALL... I am sure they are doing it to punish Russia but Canada is being punished as well...and the halt on the Keystone Pipeline that would give Canada access to world markets pisses us off to no end here.

I think the fall will stop at $40 but the rebound will be a very slow process

It seems like I am on the ignore list of the thread starter.... possibly because of my comment to @tigertrader but I have no quarrel with him now though we had issues in the past...so I probably will return the favour. @Big Mike I see nothing offensive in this post to make it ignored...just responding to a poll.

I have something more to contribute but that is not really possible or apparently wanted

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 WilleeMac 
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Iraq raises February OSP to Asia but cuts to U.S., Europe

https://english.alarabiya.net/en/business/economy/2015/01/11/Iraq-raises-February-OSP-to-Asia-but-cuts-to-U-S-Europe.html

-Bill

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The same ARAMCO did on Wed this week. Hiked prices for Asia, cut for US.

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 SMCJB 
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Alphachase View Post
The same ARAMCO did on Wed this week. Hiked prices for Asia, cut for US.

Well maybe and maybe not. They actually raised the "formula" which doesn't mean the price went up or that the price for one location increased versus the other. To determine what the actual price is you will have to evaluate the entire formula. The Asia price is Oman/Dubai average based, the European price is Dated Brent based and the US price is ASCI based. I suspect if you look at what's happened to those major indices in the last month you'll find that the spread between these indices has moved in such a way that the relative prices are very similar after the formula changes. I'd give an example but unfortunately I do not have access to Platt's pricing to show what these indices have done in the last 45 days.

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 CobblersAwls 
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Take this for what it's worth but I thought I would share this as it was interesting for me at least. This comes from a friend who has worked in the Oil industry for many years in exploration, physical delivery and also hedging via FUTS.

During the decline, when Brent was around $80 per barrel, he said that this is just a normal cycle and we will see it settle between $65-$85 as demand slowly decreases across the West. He also said that $50 would be the bottom and that beyond that most of the large producers would just cut all non-essential projects and OPEC producers like NNPC would only produce oil to fulfill their contracts but would halt all spot deals. He was short at the time covering some of his physical and said that the decline is usually exasperated by speculators.


The ironic thing is that when we were approaching that $50 mark I remembered the conversation and thought that we would probably see some chop and Shorting wouldn't be as easy near here as it has been in past weeks, thinking therefore that I should probably stay out of it. Well...I did get involved last week and made one trade which chopped me up...a lesson learnt for me at least!

I'd speculate that we will probably see some further downside as speculators continue to press it lower, especially those who perhaps had options near the $40 mark as was reported. Saying that I voted for '$70' as I believe we will begin to see a shift in perception down here with larger players seeing this as an opportunity to lock in low prices for future business costs (airlines etc). I look at examples such as this ( Canada?s Richest Grain Family Bets on Rebound in Oil - Bloomberg) as the weak getting shaken out and those in strong positions seeing this an an opportune time to grab a bargain - much like in any market crash.

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Natgas005
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Help oil move up . It will lead oil. It can see amove above 9 historic up move possible

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 WilleeMac 
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It will be interesting to see how this plays out

46.50

0830 - 40amET today

-Bill


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tomas262
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I really didn't expect crude to do such a nice slide down ... I actually like it because then it has a nice space back up for trading .... lots of opportunities now and then but still volatility remains more important for me than actual price. It's just a number. So let it go to 10 dollars. Drivers and airliners will be happy at least

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WoodMackenzie: Analysis of 2,222 oil fields suggests if Brent falls to $40 a barrel 1.6% of global oil supply could be cash negative

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 WilleeMac 
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Yes sir

For now today, the week(?), month(?) 46 clams seems to be the agreed upon price. However GS came out today and slashed forecast on this, that and the other.


Quoting 
Analysts at Goldman Sachs cut their three-month forecasts for Brent to $42 a barrel from $80 and for the U.S. West Texas Intermediate contract to $41 from $70 a barrel. The bank cut its 2015 Brent forecast to $50.40 a barrel from $83.75 and U.S. crude to $47.15 a barrel from $73.75.

Oil prices extend falls; Goldman Sachs slashes forecasts - BNN News

And we can't forget the argument over what shale oil needs in order to cover junk bond debt - I've heard figures as high as 120 bucks/ barrel.

I dunno, I just trade what I see - flat at the end of each day (and the sooner the better.)

-Bill

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 CobblersAwls 
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Hello,

I was thinking about Mike's poll and noticed the shift from being a majority vote for $70, swinging to $30 as we experienced a large fall that same/following day. To me, $30 is unrealistic and $20 is just insane, here's why:

Say we have a futures account with $25,000.00 loaded up. If oil were to reach $20 per barrel, we could literally just buy 1 contract of oil and hold it indefinitely and never get liquidated on the position. If it rose to $40 per barrel (extremely probable) you would have doubled your money. $60 and you've tripled your investment.

Even at $30 per barrel you could buy and hold. Sure price could go to $5 but then simply add another $5k margin to your account for a few weeks.

The cyclical nature of Oil is nothing new, supply and demand have always lagged behind one another at different stages. Yes, we may see low oil prices for a considerable time but prices cannot stay low forever and eventually they should rise once again, perhaps not to $100+ but experts agree that the $60-$80 range would be considered 'fair value'.

Now there is of course one big issue with this, and that is expiration. However looking at the Open Interest for CL, we can see that DEC15 actually has more open interest than any other month except for the current (MAR15) and already has a significant amount of volume traded for it's length. Having said that, the spreads between MAR and DEC are about $6, however the spread for rollover is normally around $0.50, so it could be more profitable to manually roll each position toward expiry (9 * $0.50 = $4.50) or if there is a convergence in price at some stage throughout the month.



This is all just speculative in nature and we would have to see how forward months reacted if price reached as low as $20-30, perhaps they wouldn't follow so keenly, but in my opinion it could be something to consider.

Let me know your thoughts, whether you think I'm a lunatic or there's a simple flaw in my ideology.

Cheers,

Awls

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 tturner86 
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CobblersAwls View Post
Say we have a futures account with $25,000.00 loaded up. If oil were to reach $20 per barrel, we could literally just buy 1 contract of oil and hold it indefinitely and never get liquidated on the position. If it rose to $40 per barrel (extremely probable) you would have doubled your money. $60 and you've tripled your investment.

This has never and will never drive price.

Oil is being squeezed and pulled by the largest players at the moment. Either $70 or $30 may seem unlikely, but are not out of the picture. A lot of people are calling for $30, the more that jump on the bandwagon the less likely I believe will get there.

But just because it doesn't get to $30 doesn't mean that $70 is in the picture either. I can easily range in the $40-$50 range until a player decides what they are doing.

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 SMCJB 
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CobblersAwls View Post
Say we have a futures account with $25,000.00 loaded up. If oil were to reach $20 per barrel, we could literally just buy 1 contract of oil and hold it indefinitely and never get liquidated on the position. If it rose to $40 per barrel (extremely probable) you would have doubled your money. $60 and you've tripled your investment.

I'm not sure I understand your logic? What does how much money have in your account have to do with where the price is going to go?

CobblersAwls View Post
The cyclical nature of Oil is nothing new, supply and demand have always lagged behind one another at different stages.

Agree.

CobblersAwls View Post
Yes, we may see low oil prices for a considerable time but prices cannot stay low forever

Why not? They stayed a lot lot lower than this for decades.

CobblersAwls View Post
Now there is of course one big issue with this, and that is expiration. However looking at the Open Interest for CL, we can see that DEC15 actually has more open interest than any other month except for the current (MAR15) and already has a significant amount of volume traded for it's length. Having said that, the spreads between MAR and DEC are about $6, however the spread for rollover is normally around $0.50, so it could be more profitable to manually roll each position toward expiry (9 * $0.50 = $4.50) or if there is a convergence in price at some stage throughout the month.

Feb, Mar, Apr & Jun all have higher OI than Dec, but even so I'm not sure what the relevance of that is. I assume you know why Dec has such a high OI? If you page forward on Bloomberg and look at Z7, Z8, Z9, Z0 etc I think you will see why.

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 CobblersAwls 
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I'm not sure I understand your logic? What does how much money have in your account have to do with where the price is going to go?

Sorry, I should have made it clearer, but with a 1 lot trade, each $1 move in CL is equivalent to $1,000. Therefore with a $20,000 account you could buy 1 lot CL at $20 and 'technically' hold it indefinitely.


SMCJB View Post
Why not? They stayed a lot lot lower than this for decades.

Here is where I would say things get more complicated and difference of opinion will surface. I think that we could have low Oil prices for a while ($50 region) but at $20 only OPEC producers will be left, and even they will be struggling to scratch. Arthur Berman wrote an interesting piece recently about the true cost of extracting in certain shale regions, stating that for most they need $80+ to cover costs and recent surveys stating they can survive sub $60 are skewed, only including costs for extraction and not operational and staffing costs. Once we see the weak links shaken out I think we'll see OPEC cut production until price rises to a more sustainable rate.

The point was that at $20 per barrel, I think an investment of $20,000 could see a good ROI.


SMCJB View Post
Feb, Mar, Apr & Jun all have higher OI than Dec, but even so I'm not sure what the relevance of that is. I assume you know why Dec has such a high OI? If you page forward on Bloomberg and look at Z7, Z8, Z9, Z0 etc I think you will see why.

FEB, APR and JUN have lower OI from looking at the chart posted. DEC has 192k, whereas FEB has 158k (also expiring soon), APR has 115k and JUN 144k.

As for the correlation with DEC Oil and Eurodollars, I don't quite get the correlation, are you referring to the transfer of petrodollars? Please explain as I'm always looking to learn.

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 CobblersAwls 
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This has never and will never drive price.

Oil is being squeezed and pulled by the largest players at the moment. Either $70 or $30 may seem unlikely, but are not out of the picture. A lot of people are calling for $30, the more that jump on the bandwagon the less likely I believe will get there.

But just because it doesn't get to $30 doesn't mean that $70 is in the picture either. I can easily range in the $40-$50 range until a player decides what they are doing.

Hi tt86,

I didn't mean to imply that it needs to actually hit $30 or $70, I just used the poll as a reference to what got me thinking about this topic. You are right, we could hover around $40 for a long time, I just wanted to suggest that, at $20 per barrel, one could technically hold a 1 lot trade indefinitely with a reasonably low investment.

Of course there are restrictions such as the rollovers I mentioned, but what others can you think of?

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 tturner86 
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CobblersAwls View Post
Hi tt86,

I didn't mean to imply that it needs to actually hit $30 or $70, I just used the poll as a reference to what got me thinking about this topic. You are right, we could hover around $40 for a long time, I just wanted to suggest that, at $20 per barrel, one could technically hold a 1 lot trade indefinitely with a reasonably low investment.

Of course there are restrictions such as the rollovers I mentioned, but what others can you think of?

The average retail trader wouldn't be able to stomach the big ups and downs and odds are would sell at the worst time only to watch it whip back in their fav tenfold.

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 garyboy275 
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CobblersAwls View Post
Sorry, I should have made it clearer, but with a 1 lot trade, each $1 move in CL is equivalent to $1,000. Therefore with a $20,000 account you could buy 1 lot CL at $20 and 'technically' hold it indefinitely.



Dont want to start an argument but the spreads are just going to kill you before it turns around and runs and CL can trade 10 or 20 for a few years before it goes back up. Sure if it does go back upto 100 u d make a killing or if you get a V bottom. But in either case you dont have to hold it indefinitely --either time it or get lucky

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 CobblersAwls 
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Dont want to start an argument but the spreads are just going to kill you before it turns around and runs and CL can trade 10 or 20 for a few years before it goes back up. Sure if it does go back upto 100 u d make a killing or if you get a V bottom. But in either case you dont have to hold it indefinitely --either time it or get lucky

No worries, this is what I'm looking for, holes in the logic. I know it's not as simple as how I've described but I wondered if something so simplistic could work with little intervention or trading. Simply set a profit target and let it run.

My concern was the spreads. I suppose if we take a 2 year window and say we pay $0.50 per month to roll then that's 24*0.5 = $12,000 itself! You'd need to constantly adjust your target to make the R:R worthwhile I suppose.

I was then wondering if this kind of logic would be applied by institutional speculators with deep pockets, but I suppose the argument remains the same, they'd still pay the spreads continuously.

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 garyboy275 
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The other hole in logic is that when you expect CL bounce based on production you are assuming that demand at that time will stay the same. I think the biggest threat to OPEC isnt from shale although that is there but I think the market is trying to price in the amount of reduction in demand from electric cars, who is to say that solar energy or even for that matter wind wont become a factor soon enough. Once these Solar and wind power generation becomes widespread and profitable, their definite next step is going to be transportation. We have never had the real push for clean energy like we are having now and countries like India and China are definitely up for it -much less pollution. That why so much resistance to Tesla in the USA-both from car dealers and from big ol oil.

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 CobblersAwls 
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@garyboy275 I'd question that demand side for the time being. With Oil being so cheap, it's going to be extremely difficult to persuade emerging economies such as India and China to choose the more expensive green energy options at the moment. India are in fact one the top beneficiaries of low Oil due to their high rate of imports ( Here Are The Big Winners And Losers Of Low Oil Prices - Business Insider).

Unfortunately, I think these low prices in fossil fuels will actually undo a lot of the good work and progress that's been made in renewable energy in recent years. I agree that renewable energy will be the future as nations look to become self sustainable, but I cannot see it slowing demand any time soon.

I agree there's been a slowdown in demand, especially from China as their manufacturing has slowed, yet I think that once we see stores (such as in the US) start to dry up and some of the weaker producers blow up from over-leveraging, we will see some balance return to the markets. I'm also of the opinion that the lower we go, the sharper/faster the reversal will be once we start seeing some companies (eg shale) go bust and/or cuts in production.

Edit
Of course this is total speculation by me based on fundamental reasoning from things I have read/heard. I just enjoy discussions/debates on these subjects with different folk

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 garyboy275 
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Reminiscences of a Stock Operator: With New Commentary and Insights on the Life and Times of Jesse Livermore (Annotated Edition): Edwin Lefèvre, Jon D. Markman, Paul Tudor Jones: 9780470481592: Amazon.com: Books

If you haven't already read this book highly recommend it. What was true a 100 years ago is true today. What you are proposing is very interesting. Can anyone pull it off ? I don't know but sure would make for a great story if someone did. For me I'd probably need balls surgery


In my lifetime I ve seen real carnage only 2 times --2001 for nasdaq and 2008 for the stock market. Nasdaq came down to 900 or 1100 (can't remember now from a lofty 5000 in year 2000, I thought that we Might have no Nsdaq left. In 2008 When S&P was trading in 800 range I thought that we might actually have no stock market left at all but I still forced myself to buy little by little just cause I had lived thru an earlier similar period. And what do you know those things turned out to be gems. And I am a genius

My guess is things either go too far or not far enough. They seldom trade where most people want them to trade. And guessing before something happens isnt my forte.


Edit: My guess is we went too far already. It must have blown a hedge fund or two. The next 6 -12 months are going to be real interesting.

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 CobblersAwls 
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Reminiscences of a Stock Operator: With New Commentary and Insights on the Life and Times of Jesse Livermore (Annotated Edition): Edwin Lefèvre, Jon D. Markman, Paul Tudor Jones: 9780470481592: Amazon.com: Books

If you haven't already read this book highly recommend it. What was true a 100 years ago is true today. What you are proposing is very interesting. Can anyone pull it off ? I don't know but sure would make for a great story if someone did. For me I'd probably need balls surgery


In my lifetime I ve seen real carnage only 2 times --2001 for nasdaq and 2008 for the stock market. Nasdaq came down to 900 or 1100 (can't remember now from a lofty 5000 in year 2000, I thought that we Might have no Nsdaq left. In 2008 When S&P was trading in 800 range I thought that we might actually have no stock market left at all but I still forced myself to buy little by little just cause I had lived thru an earlier similar period. And what do you know those things turned out to be gems. And I am a genius

My guess is things either go too far or not far enough. They seldom trade where most people want them to trade. And guessing before something happens isnt my forte.

It was the first trading book I ever read and probably the best I'll ever read. It's actually been a while since I last read it so may revisit it. You're comments are interesting re 01 and 08. There's always that fear, what if one day we have such a crash we cannot recover? What if there's another Cold war and things escalate, will we still have a market to trade? I suppose it's part of the risk of being in the game, there's always the likelyhood of a black swan event, no matter how small the odds.

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 tigertrader 
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that cl has a -.91 correlation with bonds, and a +.97 correlation with canadian dollar, and a 1.00 correlation with rb, and that lead/lag relationships exist on a daily basis. maybe it's not the intention of the thread; but, the stuff i hear being discussed here on a daily basis, as intellectually stimulating as it is; is not going to make you money, on a daily basis.

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 SMCJB 
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CobblersAwls View Post
FEB, APR and JUN have lower OI from looking at the chart posted. DEC has 192k, whereas FEB has 158k (also expiring soon), APR has 115k and JUN 144k.

As for the correlation with DEC Oil and Eurodollars, I don't quite get the correlation, are you referring to the transfer of petrodollars? Please explain as I'm always looking to learn.

My bad, getting old and blind can't read the difference between Volume and OI!
My point regard Dec (month symbol Z) is that crude outside of the first 6 months has very little liquidity in any of the contracts other than December. If you page forward on Bloomberg you will see that Dec17 (aka CLZ7) has a spike in open interest, as does Dec18, Dec 19 etc etc.
i was just saying that i think you will find the increase in OI in December is not a function of anything market price related but a function of the fact that it's been a liquidly traded contract for many years.

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 SMCJB 
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garyboy275 View Post
Dont want to start an argument but the spreads are just going to kill you before it turns around and runs and CL can trade 10 or 20 for a few years before it goes back up. Sure if it does go back upto 100 u d make a killing or if you get a V bottom. But in either case you dont have to hold it indefinitely --either time it or get lucky

Agree, roll cost could be enormous. You could easily buy $20 oil, be holding $20 oil in a years time and lost $7.50 in roll costs.

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 SMCJB 
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DOE crude inventories released today. Build of 5.4million barrels to a total of almost 388 million barrels.
US crude stocks are the highest they've been in the last 15 years for this time of year by over 20 million barrels.
Only time US has had more crude in storage in the last 15 years was the spring seasonal peak in 2008 and 2013 when we peaked just below 400million barrels.
US Domestic crude oil production continues to increase and reached 9.2million barrels/day. This is over a 50% increase in the last 3 years, with Jan 2012 production below 6 million/day.

https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf

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 garyboy275 
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SMCJB View Post
DOE crude inventories released today. Build of 5.4million barrels to a total of almost 388 million barrels.
US crude stocks are the highest they've been in the last 15 years for this time of year by over 20 million barrels.
Only time US has had more crude in storage in the last 15 years was the spring seasonal peak in 2008 and 2013 when we peaked just below 400million barrels.
US Domestic crude oil production continues to increase and reached 9.2million barrels/day. This is over a 50% increase in the last 3 years, with Jan 2012 production below 6 million/day.

https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf


And the fact that it rallied when it had every reason to sell off. It closed yesterday at highs and today was a follow through day. We'll see if it doesn't do a 180 by Monday then a range between 47 to 53 might be set

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 WilleeMac 
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@tigertrader

This?

-Bill


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 WilleeMac 
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Commercial short consistently comes in with numbers higher/ more than long - makes sense

Non Com has been getting their ass handed to them, looking at the numbers long only since JUN 14

However looking at the spreading numbers might lend an answer but very little clue as to how the coin toss turned up

So we have % change, maybe that's where "something" lies............

Point is we have two weeks back to back w/ black numbers

Tomorrow??

-Bill_M


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 WilleeMac 
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My thoughts on yesterday end of day rally price rout

Close the contract at or above low, take profit etc etc

Nothing more

MAR OI is 427

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 SMCJB 
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garyboy275 View Post
Dont want to start an argument but the spreads are just going to kill you before it turns around and runs and CL can trade 10 or 20 for a few years before it goes back up. Sure if it does go back upto 100 u d make a killing or if you get a V bottom. But in either case you dont have to hold it indefinitely --either time it or get lucky


SMCJB View Post
Agree, roll cost could be enormous. You could easily buy $20 oil, be holding $20 oil in a years time and lost $7.50 in roll costs.

Financial Times, Jan15th 2015
Commodities explained: Contango

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 mfbreakout 
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One of the clear signs that Crude Oil has put a bottom in when the term structure changes or as the article points out as long as there is oil on the market looking for a home to be stored- crude will continue to search for a bottom. Till then every bounce is shortable. Bigger the bounce ( like today) bigger the opportunities.



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 trendwaves 
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Mid-Feb to Late- April looks very strong seasonally. And a second leg up June-August.


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 madLyfe 
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dont believe anything you hear and only half of what you see

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 SMCJB 
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mfbreakout View Post
One of the clear signs that Crude Oil has put a bottom in when the term structure changes or as the article points out as long as there is oil on the market looking for a home to be stored- crude will continue to search for a bottom. Till then every bounce is shortable. Bigger the bounce ( like today) bigger the opportunities.

Question @mfbreakout when you say "when the term structure changes" what are you looking for/at? I personnally do not trade CL flat price, but I do trade term structure so I am curious what you mean.

On another note I shared a different article with a friend in the shipping industry where media sources talked about people utilizing VLCCs as floating storage. They interestingly contradicted that story and said at this point there is little evidence of that happening and that the VLCC market is actually quiet weak,

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 SMCJB 
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SMCJB on Dec 19th View Post
WTI and EUR:USD from June 1st till the day before the OPEC Meeting had a 93.5% correlation.


Since the OPEC meeting WTI has plummeted but correlation with EUR:USD has broken down.


Not sure, what if anything that means, but hey I found it interesting.

Can't take credit for the idea, saw it in a presentation by Doug Huggins of Quantitative Markets Analysis in London, although I'm not sure what his exact time period was and he used Brent not WTI,

Charts show NYMEX CL & CME 6E closing prices.


Thxo View Post
Time to buy then ... dont you think?



gain247 View Post
... or maybe sell the EURUSD

And the answer was... Sell the Euro...



All charts have the same scaling, $5/bbl = 0.02 EUR/USD

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 SMCJB 
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madLyfe View Post

I think tastytrade do some great educational pieces. This is a good one for many people


tigertrader View Post
that cl has a -.91 correlation with bonds, and a +.97 correlation with canadian dollar, and a 1.00 correlation with rb, and that lead/lag relationships exist on a daily basis.

And according to tastytrade...


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 WilleeMac 
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News maybe you can use

Steepest Drop in U.S. Oil Rigs Shows OPEC Prevailing - Bloomberg

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 mfbreakout 
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SMCJB View Post
Question @mfbreakout when you say "when the term structure changes" what are you looking for/at? I personnally do not trade CL flat price, but I do trade term structure so I am curious what you mean.

On another note I shared a different article with a friend in the shipping industry where media sources talked about people utilizing VLCCs as floating storage. They interestingly contradicted that story and said at this point there is little evidence of that happening and that the VLCC market is actually quiet weak,

Hi SMCJB,

By term structure i mean it need to move back from contango to backwardation. As far as technical evidence i am looking for that Crude Oil has put a bottom in- all CL has to do rip 300 ticks up and never visit that area again- whether it's $44, 40 or whatever it may be. So far, CL rips up and then gives up everything within same day or within next day or two. This kind of behavior is typical when something is extremely bearish. We get strongest rips up - short squeze etc- within a bearish trend and then so called bullish candles, price action etc disappears.

Crude to 'go the way of whale oil': Dennis Gartman.



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 SMCJB 
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mfbreakout View Post
By term structure i mean it need to move back from contango to backwardation.

Crude vs 1st Month Spread
14.6 R2


Crude vs 2nd Month Spread
25.3 R2, Getting Better


Crude vs 1st-vs-6th Spread
31.0 R2, Getting Better


Crude vs 2nd-vs-6th Spread
34.0 R2, Getting Even Better


Crude vs 6th-vs-12th Spread
53.3 R2, Now We Are Talking

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 tturner86 
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SMCJB View Post
Crude vs 6th-vs-12th Spread
53.3 R2, Now We Are Talking

I see a dove...

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 SMCJB 
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OPEC’s strategy is working, and it will be obvious in U.S. production by midyear when growth from shale plays will come to a halt,”


Need more than a drop in production growth before S/D corrects.

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 e4williams 
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I have three questions,

1. I have spent 40 minutes on Google trying to find an inverse 1x inverse ETF on WTI crude oil, any recommendations.

2. My price projection for WTI Crude is down to 26 or 28 within two to two and a half months. How best to trade that??
I was just thinking a short EFT 1x, which apparently I am having great difficulty in finding.

3. One thing I am closely examining on the technical analysis side is the angle of the drop in oil price in 2008, If one looks at that on a monthly chart. We have six candlesticks down. Until bottom was hit. Losing and average of about 14 points a month. On this downturn we have about 3 candlesticks down, losing about 9 or 10 points a month. I have a price projection of 26. Now, I need someone here better than math than I am. Should I be looking at this chart arithmetically or in logarithm. The one major difference here between the two is that in 2008 we hit a peak that we declined from. On this downturn, we have a breakdown though support.

Also worthy of note in the 2008 chart is the angle of ascension, once we hit bottom from there. I would assume once this downturn has hit it's bottom WTI crude would do a similar move up.

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 SMCJB 
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e4williams View Post
I have spent 40 minutes on Google trying to find an inverse 1x inverse ETF on WTI crude oil, any recommendations.

40mins??
SCO seems to be what you want.
Crude Oil ETF Database

I don't understand #3 so cant help you there.

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 trendwaves 
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Quoting 
2. My price projection for WTI Crude is down to 26 or 28 within two to two and a half months. How best to trade that??
I was just thinking a short EFT 1x, which apparently I am having great difficulty in finding.

You can also look at option strategies against USO, as simple as buying a put, selling (writing) a call, or the various bear vertical spread strategies.

One thing you have to be cautious of is the effect of contango on USO or other commodity ETF, because USO is priced in front month only, so monthly rollover of futures contracts with contango will affect future performance. This article explains the current situation with respect to ETF's based on crude oil ... The Cruel Oil-Market Math Conspiring Against ETF Bulls - Bloomberg


Quoting 
Also worthy of note in the 2008 chart is the angle of ascension, once we hit bottom from there. I would assume once this downturn has hit it's bottom WTI crude would do a similar move up.

A bigger difference today compared to 2008 is the US Dollar. You really need to be comparing the US Dollar against Crude Oil to understand what is happening today. The trade your considering is also a trade on the future price of the US Dollar against the Yen and Euro. Currently we have collapsing global demand, primarily asia, combined with a strong uptrend in the US Dollar. In 2008, we had steady to increasing global demand within an environment of a weak dollar policy in effect whereby the brief dollar rally mid-year quickly reversed back to close the year back below long term support at the 80 level, and thereby allowing oil to reverse trend and rocket higher. So, with that backdrop, unless the dollar trend reverses course, the best oil will be able to do is find a low somewhere and drift sideways in a trading range. With that said, we are now within the window of time that starts a bullish seasonal period for oil, (from mid-January to late April).




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 tigertrader 
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trendwaves View Post
You can also look at option strategies against USO, as simple as buying a put, selling (writing) a call, or the various bear vertical spread strategies.

One thing you have to be cautious of is the effect of contango on USO or other commodity ETF, because USO is priced in front month only, so monthly rollover of futures contracts with contango will affect future performance. This article explains the current situation with respect to ETF's based on crude oil ... The Cruel Oil-Market Math Conspiring Against ETF Bulls - Bloomberg



A bigger difference today compared to 2008 is the US Dollar. You really need to be comparing the US Dollar against Crude Oil to understand what is happening today. The trade your considering is also a trade on the future price of the US Dollar against the Yen and Euro. Currently we have collapsing global demand, primarily asia, combined with a strong uptrend in the US Dollar. In 2008, we had steady to increasing global demand within an environment of a weak dollar policy in effect whereby the brief dollar rally mid-year quickly reversed back to close the year back below long term support at the 80 level, and thereby allowing oil to reverse trend and rocket higher. So, with that backdrop, unless the dollar trend reverses course, the best oil will be able to do is find a low somewhere and drift sideways in a trading range. With that said, we are now within the window of time that starts a bullish seasonal period for oil, (from mid-January to late April).


all commodity prices were were high for the past 7 years because the dollar was weak. and, now the dollar is back to more normal levels, and commodity prices have adjusted. however, the demand side of the equation is only one part of the story; and in fact, only 44% of the drop in oil prices is attributable to broader demand factors. there has also been a 65% surge in u.s. crude production in the past 4 years, which was driven by new drilling technologies. eventually, falling oil prices will have the effect of reducing supply, and stimulating demand, and oil prices will rebound. therefore, it's wrong to think this is primarily a demand side problem, especially, if you factor in the the saudi's actions. this is an important distinction, because lower oil prices, that result from increased supplies, will likely be supportive of future economic growth.

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 tigertrader 
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tturner86 View Post
Since I was on the ignore list for IT7 I can't post to the thread he started. So I figured I would start a new thread to discuss CL.

I have been observing it and will start to take some trades in it.

This is open to everyone. Please feel free to post ideas and trades.

i think the thread has deviated from its intended purpose. originally, it was about how to trade cl. now it appears to be a thread where individuals are attempting to predict how far crude will fall, or when it will bottom. trading may seem like it's a form of prediction; but, it really isn't. although, it is human nature to try and approach trading in terms of making a prediction; and, it's a very interesting intellectual exercise that is both fun and challenging, not unlike solving a puzzle. and, when we get it right, it can be extremely emotionally satisfying, even if it was because of random luck. people always ask me, "where do you think the market is going?"and, while i inadvertently may have a forward looking opinion, i try not to let that get in the way of my trading. instead, i choose to trade the market, and let the market tell me where its going. if you focus on trying to predict the market, then you are a speculator, and not a trader. those are different skill-sets, which require different approaches to the market. as a trader, and especially as a leveraged trader, you have to concentrate on projecting losses, risk management, and finding an approach to the market that works day in and day out, so that chance can prevail. trying to predict the future of crude oil prices is not going to make you money on a consistent basis. what is going to make you money, is not getting stopped out of potential winners, turning short term trades into longer ones, and keeping draw-downs to manageable levels. markets are markets and while es is a different animal from cl, they are both part of the same kingdom. this is a period of great uncertainty for both markets, because of the long uptrend in es, and the long downtrend in cl. the es market is waiting to see the magnitude and effectiveness of european qe and how geopolitical conflicts will play out; and, the oil market is waiting to see what the saudi's will do, if supply will be pared, and if demand from asia will improve. the markets themselves have no idea how any of this will be resolved, so how can anyone think, that by looking at a chart of past price action, they can successfully predict what's going to happen in the future?

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 garyboy275 
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Checkout DTO, SCO etc there isn't 1x afaik


The intense recent 2 month selling we saw might be permanently bulls and hedges going on and historically speaking we are entering a bullish time frame for CL.

Tuesday we rallied from gap down lows and while the EIA# was bearish Cl had no intention of selling and rallies past the McVpoc area of 4850 and rallied even on Thursday open to 51+ before pulling back to Tuesdays vpoc area. friday it had every reason to sell, a retest higher and failure with continuation lower would be expected on continued selling pressure instead we got a failure above 4850 and a late day push above that area to make new highs into the close. where does that leave us? I am thinking possibly a ramp higher establishing value between 4850 to 5150 area and continuing to push toward 5350 and 5500 areas. Impulsive push below 4850 would negate all that. So far we rallied on bearish news and we hasb e follow through I am not married to this idea but until proved wrong I am going forward next week with that

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 tigertrader 
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garyboy275 View Post
Checkout DTO, SCO etc there isn't 1x afaik


The intense recent 2 month selling we saw might be permanently bulls and hedges going on and historically speaking we are entering a bullish time frame for CL.

i don't understand this gibberish; and do you really think that seasonality is going to be factor under current conditions?

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 WilleeMac 
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I attended a Rational Trader dot com (Shane Handy) webinar yesterday on /CL order flow, 11amET to 3pm and he did a damn good job. Especially since it was zero clams to attend. Full disclosure - I'll be taking the seven day trial

The platform he uses is Sierra Chart 10 tick bid x ask bars, volume profile and various form(s) of a moving average (IMO they are all MA's) two or three - mostly to measure standard deviation.

He doesn't sell anything other than monthly trade room fee (99?)

His primary focus is price action and bid ask volume - who, what, when and where

Pretty much the proverbial teach a guy/ gal to hunt.........


@tigertrader
Quoting 
people always ask me, "where do you think the market is going?

LulZZZZ you say that, or what did the market do today?

Me, typical reply "I don't no, down in the morning (Frankfurt/ London/ New York) up in the afternoon, that's about all I know."

Nonetheless yes sir I'd love to see this getting back to trading

Make money, minimize losses, move on and flat at the end of each day - the earlier the better

Ride safe

-Bill

EDIT

It put me on to this (thread post I did at thinkscripter)


Quoting 
Ho Ho Ho

Check out the bid X ask and the number of trades on that 0805amET bar from yesterday

And what happened after that? (hint, my opening line)

But I missed it

-Bill


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 tigertrader 
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WilleeMac View Post
I attended a Rational Trader dot com (Shane Handy) webinar yesterday on /CL order flow, 11amET to 3pm and he did a damn good job. Especially since it was zero clams to attend. Full disclosure - I'll be taking the seven day trial

The platform he uses is Sierra Chart 10 tick bid x ask bars, volume profile and various form(s) of a moving average (IMO they are all MA's) two or three - mostly to measure standard deviation.

He doesn't sell anything other than monthly trade room fee (99?)

His primary focus is price action and bid ask volume - who, what and where

Pretty much the proverbial teach a guy/ gal to hunt.........


@tigertrader

LulZZZZ you say that, or what did the market do today?

Me, typical reply "I don't no, down in the morning (Frankfurt/ London/ New York) up in the afternoon, that's about all I know."

Nonetheless yes sir I'd love to see this getting back to trading

Make money, minimize losses, move on and flat at the end of each day - the earlier the better

Ride safe

-Bill

i just don't get it...

why would you want to be flat at the end of the day if you have a big lead on a trade; and, you are right the market ?

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 tturner86 
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tigertrader View Post
i just don't get it...

why would you want to be flat at the end of the day if you have a big lead on a trade; and, you are right the market ?

I have learned that being flat and right is almost as bad as being wrong and down.

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 garyboy275 
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tigertrader View Post
i don't understand this gibberish; and do you really think that seasonality is going to be factor under current conditions?

There s always elite trader for you. I already gave you a synopsis of what I saw last week. Still waiting something constructive from you and you were first to complain that this thread has lost its meaning. And with that I won't ever share my ideas here thank you

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 WilleeMac 
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i just don't get it...

why would you want to be flat at the end of the day if you have a big lead on a trade; and, you are right the market ?

Just my style- five here, 10 - 20 there

-Bill_M

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 tigertrader 
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garyboy275 View Post
There s always elite trader for you. I already gave you a synopsis of what I saw last week. Still waiting something constructive from you and you were first to complain that this thread has lost its meaning. And with that I won't ever share my ideas here thank you

i'm sorry, but i just don't understand what this means...

The intense recent 2 month selling we saw might be permanently bulls and hedges going on

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 SMCJB 
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trendwaves View Post
One thing you have to be cautious of is the effect of contango on USO or other commodity ETF, because USO is priced in front month only, so monthly rollover of futures contracts with contango will affect future performance. This article explains the current situation with respect to ETF's based on crude oil ... The Cruel Oil-Market Math Conspiring Against ETF Bulls - Bloomberg

While I agree completely with your comment regarding the effect of Contango on ETFs it should be noted that the negative effect on returns applies to long positions. For short ETFs (short ETF or long inverse ETF) the effect should in theory be the opposite, ie positive yield roll in a contango market.

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 tigertrader 
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WilleeMac View Post
Just my style- five here, 10 - 20 there

-Bill_M

my point is, you have a market that has gone almost straight down from 107.68-44.20; and could arguably be classified as a once-in-a-lifetime move, that may never be repeated again in your lifetime, and you are happy with a little bit here and little bit there? you can't take markets like these for granted. you have to take the greatest advantage of them as possible, because they are golden opportunities, that don't come along too often. when cl is going sideways for 9 months and is choppy as hell and whipping everybody around, and it will revert to this kind of trade again, you will wish you took greater advantage of this market. just something to consider....

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 tigertrader 
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SMCJB View Post
While I agree completely with your comment regarding the effect of Contango on ETFs it should be noted that the negative effect on returns applies to long positions. For short ETFs (short ETF or long inverse ETF) the effect should in theory be the opposite, ie positive yield roll in a contango market.

that's true in practice

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 kbit 
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tigertrader View Post
i just don't get it...

why would you want to be flat at the end of the day if you have a big lead on a trade; and, you are right the market ?

Would have been good to be flat for the Swissy traders on the wrong side the other day....

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 tigertrader 
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kbit View Post
Would have been good to be flat for the Swissy traders on the wrong side the other day....

shit happens...during the rth session, also. so should you always be flat?

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 kbit 
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tigertrader View Post
shit happens...during the rth session, also. so should you always be flat?

For the record I agree for the most part. There are times when I expect a better (re)entry the next day on a continuing move but of course the risk is having it take off without you, ergo you will not get an argument from me.

I was being a bit of a wiseguy.

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 tturner86 
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kbit View Post
For the record I agree for the most part. There are times when I expect a better (re)entry the next day on a continuing move but of course the risk is having it take off without you, ergo you will not get an argument from me.

I was being a bit of a wiseguy.

Must be a Chicago thing?

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 tigertrader 
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SEATTLE!!!!

hating greenbay, is a chicago thing...

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 Beljevina 
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WilleeMac View Post
I attended a Rational Trader dot com (Shane Handy) webinar yesterday on /CL order flow, 11amET to 3pm and he did a damn good job. Especially since it was zero clams to attend. Full disclosure - I'll be taking the seven day trial

The platform he uses is Sierra Chart 10 tick bid x ask bars, volume profile and various form(s) of a moving average (IMO they are all MA's) two or three - mostly to measure standard deviation.

He doesn't sell anything other than monthly trade room fee (99?)

His primary focus is price action and bid ask volume - who, what, when and where

Pretty much the proverbial teach a guy/ gal to hunt.........


@tigertrader

LulZZZZ you say that, or what did the market do today?

Me, typical reply "I don't no, down in the morning (Frankfurt/ London/ New York) up in the afternoon, that's about all I know."

Nonetheless yes sir I'd love to see this getting back to trading

Make money, minimize losses, move on and flat at the end of each day - the earlier the better

Ride safe

-Bill

EDIT

It put me on to this (thread post I did at thinkscripter)




I've been reading this thread here & there, and, though it's really been all over the place, just thought I'd jump in due to that footprint snippet of Friday morning. Footprint charts are a huge component of my trading, and, that 47.16 bid print was a gift, and sign. The one you mentioned occurred 50min before pit open. Prior to that there were viable textbook signs from the overnight (London) session that buying was the true intention.

That 540 x 0 print and the clear price directional push up after that (along with a big and ask gap created above it) are typically a sign of a specific price defence and intent.

Expecting those pre-pit bid x ask prints to be revisited/retested/refilled is often reasonable, as is even more reasonable to watch and expect further determined and size-based bidding to occur at that level, which, is exactly what the big boys did on pit open, printing 382 x 0 and then 252 x 0 across the 2 5min bars on my chart. Their willingness to soak up every last seller with a zero-ask side print is often a sign of their determination. These types of prints used to occur a bit more frequently, when CL had smaller week ranges, and, had not basically one-wayed from that $95 range, to where we are; the last time I remember a similar such print was Dec 1, where the bottom printed with a massive seller exhaustion down into the $60 area, right at London open, and then uplifted $7 that day. (Yes, that ~$67 price then marked the peak, and, it of course hasn't been back there since.)

Apologies if this is perhaps too detailed for the thread, but that chart snippet I thought deserved more of a follow-up write-up. Given that the next pit open test about 90 minutes later held, there were very good odds that CL would make some deserved price recovery; buying ensued through the CL day, with a lifting of the offer, and decent buy flows. IMHO CL(March) was further helped along due to the post-February contract roll, and general indexes recovery that ensued into Friday afternoon.

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 e4williams 
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SCO seems to be what you want.

Thanks for the link (I was able to find what I wanted through your link), However, actually you are wrong. SCO is -2X short. It is SZO that is the -1X ETF short on crude.

This is offered by Powershares.

Just to understand the ETF offerers better, I know they have as major offerers.

1 Proshares
2 Direxion
3. Powershares is new to me

Are there any other major ETF offerers out there other than these three or are these the three major players.
And I don't see Proshares or Direxion offering a -1X short inverse on crude oil

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 wirechild 
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e4williams View Post
SCO seems to be what you want.

Thanks for the link (I was able to find what I wanted through your link), However, actually you are wrong. SCO is -2X short. It is SZO that is the -1X ETF short on crude.

This is offered by Powershares.

Just to understand the ETF offerers better, I know they have as major offerers.

1 Proshares
2 Direxion
3. Powershares is new to me

Are there any other major ETF offerers out there other than these three or are these the three major players.
And I don't see Proshares or Direxion offering a -1X short inverse on crude oil

DNO is what I use.

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