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The CL Crude-analysis Thread


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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

  #2511 (permalink)
 
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 SMCJB 
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Because of overnight trading opening ranges are less significant for commodities than they used to be and the "published opening price" is now 4pm EPT rather than the old 'pit open'.

The other thing that has changed for CL is the rise in importance of Brent. CL was always more domestic, while Brent was more the international benchmark and is more European based than CL. US used to be an import market and hence Brent-WTI acted as a 'cap' to CL. Now US is exporting WTI, it competes with Brent in the International markets. Why is this important? Well since Brent is more Euro based, it's peak trading is earlier than CL, and hence many days CLs direction is driven by Brent's overnight price action.

*Of course Brent is a dieing field and what we call Brent is now a basket of North Sea crudes, and no longer specifically Brent.

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  #2512 (permalink)
 fibtrader2012 
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SMCJB View Post
Because of overnight trading opening ranges are less significant for commodities than they used to be and the "published opening price" is now 4pm EPT rather than the old 'pit open'.

The other thing that has changed for CL is the rise in importance of Brent. CL was always more domestic, while Brent was more the international benchmark and is more European based than CL. US used to be an import market and hence Brent-WTI acted as a 'cap' to CL. Now US is exporting WTI, it competes with Brent in the International markets. Why is this important? Well since Brent is more Euro based, it's peak trading is earlier than CL, and hence many days CLs direction is driven by Brent's overnight price action.

*Of course Brent is a dieing field and what we call Brent is now a basket of North Sea crudes, and no longer specifically Brent.

Thanks. I'm trying to limit my entries to higher volume times of the day as I find it suits my personality to not hold leveraged positions overnight. I'm not trading straight up ACD but its giving me some additional structure. I have noticed the increase in volume around 9am BST (possibly the Brent influence you mentioned) and this is useful as I'm based in the UK and have two opening ranges to watch. Appreciate the input.

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  #2513 (permalink)
 
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 SMCJB 
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Then yes 9am has increased volume, as does 230pm Eastern/730pm UK which is the closing range of both CL and Brent.

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  #2514 (permalink)
 
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Fibtrader2012 " I'm not trading straight up ACD but its giving me some additional structure."

I use ACD to the T. Curious to know how you are using ACD. Opening Range is a personal preference based upon one trading style. I use 8.30 to 9.15 - 45 minutes OR ( US Eastern time) which Mark Fisher himself used. But as he mentioned in the book- on his desk, traders were using 2 minutes, 5 minutes and so on.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #2515 (permalink)
 
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 mfbreakout 
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For Wednesday- EIA report day, I use OR from 8.30 am till 10.35 am. Wednesday Highs and Lows are significant levels are for me. As Fish ( Mark nick name). Wednesday highs and lows are not made by accident.



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  #2516 (permalink)
 fibtrader2012 
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Hi mfbreakout,

Thanks for your responses. I have been away from the markets for a while apart from long term equity trades., ACD alway appealed to me and I now intend on utilising this framework but will also be using daily price action for potential guidance. The 6th July outside day reversal on WTI was an example of daily price action that I'm looking for. A reversal day at significant longer term resistance level. I aim to factor this area in with a Macro ACD approach.

I see you have traded ACD for a long time and I'm keen to hear your current thoughts on what areas of the approach from the original book are your key focus and what areas may not have aged as well possibly. Also any additional learning material you recommend.

Thanks


mfbreakout View Post
Fibtrader2012 " I'm not trading straight up ACD but its giving me some additional structure."

I use ACD to the T. Curious to know how you are using ACD. Opening Range is a personal preference based upon one trading style. I use 8.30 to 9.15 - 45 minutes OR ( US Eastern time) which Mark Fisher himself used. But as he mentioned in the book- on his desk, traders were using 2 minutes, 5 minutes and so on.


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  #2517 (permalink)
 
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 mfbreakout 
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My key take away from ACD method is ( which I did not fully understand and practiced) and thus my trading was sub par for many , many and many years is to TRADE WITH THE TREND. It's a very simple statement and I am not sure why it took me so long to finally implement it.

An example of trading with the trend is that I have traded ES and CL from the long side 90% of the time over last 3 months. I used to trade both from long side and short side within a day. That habit totally defeated the PURPOSE of ACD. Obviously there are short trades within a bullish trend. But I do not look at them and do not even try. I buy/go long into pullbacks.

That so called reversal/sell off from 76.98 area to me is just a pullback within a bullish trend. I did not short and just bought pullbacks. Currently CL is at 75.45. I would never go long at 76.98 on first test but if CL goes to 85 , for discussion sake, and reverses from 85 on first test, I will buy all the pullbacks to 76.98.

ACD is a breakout system. I do not take breakout trades. I buy pullbacks of a breakout.


I am not aware of any other book similar to Mark Fisher book.



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  #2518 (permalink)
 
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 mfbreakout 
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ACD breakout traders use smaller time frame , for example, 1 minute, 5 minutes etc. OR to trade breakout in the direction of the larger time frame. I use 45 minutes for CL, 40 minutes for GC, so I buy pullbacks to ORL in case of CL and I short ORH in case of GC because GC is in a bearish trend.


I look at Monthly and Weekly Price action to gauge trend .



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #2519 (permalink)
 
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2021-07-13_14-55-54 ACD



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  #2520 (permalink)
 
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 mfbreakout 
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Today I was uber Bullish and I did not wait for pullback and ORL to be formed. I started buying 74.20 74.30 before open and had couple of stop outs before i got my wits together.



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