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Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
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Obviously could be, but do you really want the risk of it suddenly dropping say $10 on you? We're almost back to $30. At these prices production is going to start rising again. If I'm a producer I'm happy selling futures and taking them to delivery. Let somebody else worry about where they are putting it and how they plan to use it. VLCC rates have dropped considerably as well. Maybe I'm just completely missing the picture. Maybe production is lower than I think and that demand is higher/coming back quicker.
Especially these days where I see fewer logical relationships holding, I can't make much sense of things. I'm right at the cusp of completely ignoring all information besides what I see on my screens and basic themes of the day, because everything else just leaves me in a very paralyzed state. The one thing I can usually have some confidence in is seeing whether buyers or sellers are dominating (or neither). Who's buying, why, when they'll dump it, etc. .. I can't know it and thinking about it hurts my brain.
What I have experienced. (Stay with me here) My wife is active in a charity run and staffed by volunteers, mostly retired and all women. They are having to make decisions about reopening their store and having their annual meeting. She says in the discussions it is very clear who gets their world view from Cable News. This may be part of what is going on. Re-enforcing that was the COT on the S&P showing small specs going long and the pros going short.
Today someone posted that there are over 230,000 contracts on the front month with less than two weeks left. The pro's are saying all space in Cushing is spoken for. Today I saw there are about 40 tankers sitting on the California coast. Gulf of Mexico I do not know the number but it looks like a D Day fleet on the graphics.
Tanker rates are always volatile. VLCC's got down to around $65,000 a day and now today back to 75,000. Look at average this quarter compared to prior year makes my head spin and makes down a relative term. CEO of Euronav said that it was oil traders playing contango for the first wave of 6 month storage charters but now they are dealing with oil companies. Many of the rented ships are just now showing up to load. He is saying loading 14 million barrels a day for the rest of May and 2 million a day for all of June. Makes sense that they do not want to damage their wells . Now the guy who needs to be in a movie, Harold Ham said he has no choice but to start shutting in. Yea, there are no tankers in the Dakotas. Since he has a 50% chance or so of losing the well if he shuts it down you know he will keep pumping if he can hoping all those oil Man prayers get answered.
So someone please show me what I am missing that the longs are seeing, other than a wish that a switch will flip and we will be back to the way we were. Assuming that is true what happens to all the stored product. A tanker ceo said new build VLCCs and Suezmax will be used as product tankers for their first cargo because the storage demand is so great. Product tanker owners are saying they are passing up storage deals on oil because they don't want to lose out on a product deal.
With 8 DTE, June is down 6% today. Any opinions on the likelihood of a push lower in the coming week in anticipation of negative prices again as June expires? Or, has a lot of volume/OI moving to July reduced the probability of that?
