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The CL Crude-analysis Thread


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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

  #2391 (permalink)
 
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 Hulk 
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And while that was happening... this is what the May RB crack did. There was a bid at $31 even that didnt get filled. Towards the end, there was not even a market.


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  #2392 (permalink)
 
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Pa Dax View Post
Oil businesses are dying by the minute.
This will be a bloodbath and banks that have billions of outstanding debt to this industry might be next.
I'm wondering at what price oil majors and airlines have hedged. Does anyone know if that is public somewhere?

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Airlines probably dont get any impact from this. I dont know about Jet but prompt HO is down only 5c. Jet should be close.

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  #2393 (permalink)
 
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Hulk View Post
And while that was happening... this is what the May RB crack did. There was a bid at $31 even that didnt get filled. Towards the end, there was not even a market.

RB - Gasoline in NYH
CL - Crude OIl in Cushing Oklahoma
I'm sure RB vs Brent Crack was a lot more stable.
(East Coast refiners get their crude from the North Sea and West Africa and not OK.)

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  #2394 (permalink)
 
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Captain135 View Post
Thanks for the reply SMCJB. How does someone get the information you just provided?


Captain135 View Post
You said taking physical delivery is unavailable, I'm looking to find out how you came upon that information. (Some CME notice I can't find, talking to your broker, etc.)

Been in the industry for a while. Good friends with several people who actually trade the physical barrel itself.

Captain135 View Post
The current physical delivery rules state:
Delivery shall be made free-on-board (“F.O.B.”) at any pipeline or storage facility in Cushing, Oklahoma with pipeline access to Enterprise, Cushing storage or Enbridge, Cushing storage. Delivery shall be made in accordance with all applicable Federal executive orders and all applicable Federal, State and local laws and regulations.

Correct. But the delivery doesn't come with it's own storage. You have to have the storage yourself in order to take delivery. In reality the buyer and seller both probably both have storage and all that happens is an intank paper transfer from one owner to the next.

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  #2395 (permalink)
 
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SMCJB View Post
RB - Gasoline in NYH
CL - Crude OIl in Cushing Oklahoma
I'm sure RB vs Brent Crack was a lot more stable.
(East Coast refiners get their crude from the North Sea and West Africa and not OK.)

Well, May Brent isnt even trading to compare so all of the May action was limited to US products. I know penultimate expiry and the urgency in WTI but still I find it really bizzare that May/Jun WTI does what it does but May/Jun RB and HO barely move. And, the other side of the equation gets satisfied by the move in cracks.

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  #2396 (permalink)
 
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I think it's purely because RB and HO are both New York Harbor, I'll see if I can dig up some Platts or Argus quotes but I'm sure Mogas and Heat in the center of the COUNTRY are trading at significant discounts to the screen.

edit: Country not Contract

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  #2397 (permalink)
 
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SMCJB View Post
I think it's purely because RB and HO are both New York Harbor, I'll see if I can dig up some Platts or Argus quotes but I'm sure Mogas and Heat in the center of the contract are trading at significant discounts to the screen.

They are. In the chicago area, a few days ago, gasoline was as low as 15-20 cents/gallon, almost 40c under the screen. I understand that. I was just commenting on how, sometimes the screen can do very bizzare things. Please dont spend your time looking up anything. I was just thinking out loud when I wrote that.

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  #2398 (permalink)
 
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This was sent to me. Can not verify authenticity (google search does not find story) but trust source.

U.S. Oil Fund to Sell 4 Billion New Shares: Filing
By Alex Longley
(Bloomberg) -- U.S. Oil Fund ETF plans to sell 4 billion new shares, according to an exchange filing. Proposed sale as soon as practicable after registration statement becomes effective In a separate filing, USO says if it has to temporarily suspend the issuance of creation baskets, it will issue a subsequent report If USO issues all of its currently remaining registered shares before registration statement regarding additional, new shares is declared effective, management would have to suspend the ability of the firms - authorized purchasers - to buy new creation baskets

But this is definitely real...

Bloomberg:- U.S. Oil Fund to Move Giant WTI Position as Market Sours
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-17/u-s-oil-fund-to-move-giant-wti-position-as-market-sours
The exchange-traded fund, which normally holds WTI futures for the nearest month, will now move 20% of its contracts to the second-traded month, as an unprecedented global supply glut pushes down prices for contracts near their delivery dates. The change takes effect Friday and will be in place until further notice, it said in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.


BIG change!

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  #2399 (permalink)
 
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Next expiry will be interesting for sure. More and more traders will want to roll earlier than normal to avoid this scenario next month.

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  #2400 (permalink)
 
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Completely unrelated to today's activity...

Singapore oil trader hid US$800 million of losses before collapse that stuns lenders including HSBC, DBS
https://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/3080622/singapore-oil-trader-hid-us800-million-losses-collapse-stuns

the company faces a significant shortfall between the oil stocks it held and the inventories pledged to its banks.
...
But Hin Leong told its creditors this month that total liabilities reached US$4.05 billion as of early April, while assets were just US$714 million, leaving a hole of at least US$3.34 billion,

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