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The CL Crude-analysis Thread


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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

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  #31 (permalink)
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December 2015 crude jumped $6.73 on Thursday.....might mean something???????

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  #32 (permalink)
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^^^^not only that but a hefty OI as well

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EDIT

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude_quotes_settlements_futures.html

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  #33 (permalink)
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What's next for Crude Oil?

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  #34 (permalink)
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33.20

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  #35 (permalink)
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I think your choices are too limiting $30 would seem too low and $70 is fine and it will get there eventually but most "experts" do not expect that the rise will be rapid...




I think $40.00ish would be a reasonable bottom.... God I hope so for the sake of the Canadian economy. My province, Alberta derives an increasingly amount of It seems I am now on the thread starters ignrevenues from Oil and Gas



If this fall continues past $40 there will be untold hardship here trickling down to the lowest levels as the the oil industry supports more than just governments... services, supply industries and the jobs associated will disappear, cities that depend on taxes from those industries will suffer in infrastructure maintenance lack... the domino falling continues.

As you can see from the first chart...$40ish oil was the limit of the fall during the financial crisis of 2008-09. I don't know what the end game of Saudi Arabia is but the USA opening the export gates to increase the availability of oil does not help Canada AT ALL... I am sure they are doing it to punish Russia but Canada is being punished as well...and the halt on the Keystone Pipeline that would give Canada access to world markets pisses us off to no end here.

I think the fall will stop at $40 but the rebound will be a very slow process

It seems like I am on the ignore list of the thread starter.... possibly because of my comment to @tigertrader but I have no quarrel with him now though we had issues in the past...so I probably will return the favour. @Big Mike I see nothing offensive in this post to make it ignored...just responding to a poll.

I have something more to contribute but that is not really possible or apparently wanted

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  #36 (permalink)
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Iraq raises February OSP to Asia but cuts to U.S., Europe

https://english.alarabiya.net/en/business/economy/2015/01/11/Iraq-raises-February-OSP-to-Asia-but-cuts-to-U-S-Europe.html

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  #37 (permalink)
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The same ARAMCO did on Wed this week. Hiked prices for Asia, cut for US.

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  #38 (permalink)
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Alphachase View Post
The same ARAMCO did on Wed this week. Hiked prices for Asia, cut for US.

Well maybe and maybe not. They actually raised the "formula" which doesn't mean the price went up or that the price for one location increased versus the other. To determine what the actual price is you will have to evaluate the entire formula. The Asia price is Oman/Dubai average based, the European price is Dated Brent based and the US price is ASCI based. I suspect if you look at what's happened to those major indices in the last month you'll find that the spread between these indices has moved in such a way that the relative prices are very similar after the formula changes. I'd give an example but unfortunately I do not have access to Platt's pricing to show what these indices have done in the last 45 days.

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  #39 (permalink)
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Take this for what it's worth but I thought I would share this as it was interesting for me at least. This comes from a friend who has worked in the Oil industry for many years in exploration, physical delivery and also hedging via FUTS.

During the decline, when Brent was around $80 per barrel, he said that this is just a normal cycle and we will see it settle between $65-$85 as demand slowly decreases across the West. He also said that $50 would be the bottom and that beyond that most of the large producers would just cut all non-essential projects and OPEC producers like NNPC would only produce oil to fulfill their contracts but would halt all spot deals. He was short at the time covering some of his physical and said that the decline is usually exasperated by speculators.


The ironic thing is that when we were approaching that $50 mark I remembered the conversation and thought that we would probably see some chop and Shorting wouldn't be as easy near here as it has been in past weeks, thinking therefore that I should probably stay out of it. Well...I did get involved last week and made one trade which chopped me up...a lesson learnt for me at least!

I'd speculate that we will probably see some further downside as speculators continue to press it lower, especially those who perhaps had options near the $40 mark as was reported. Saying that I voted for '$70' as I believe we will begin to see a shift in perception down here with larger players seeing this as an opportunity to lock in low prices for future business costs (airlines etc). I look at examples such as this (Canada?s Richest Grain Family Bets on Rebound in Oil - Bloomberg) as the weak getting shaken out and those in strong positions seeing this an an opportune time to grab a bargain - much like in any market crash.

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  #40 (permalink)
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Help oil move up . It will lead oil. It can see amove above 9 historic up move possible

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