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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

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  #201 (permalink)
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Crazy wide risk range for this week 42.80 to 54.10 area. Very difficult environment to trade with wide whipsaws.

Short 53.83, add to short 53.62. Cover 52.80. flat.



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  #202 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
Short 53.83, add to short 53.62. Cover 52.80. flat.

Good Shorting mate.

I must admit taking longs in this beast is painful. Just pointless.
Have to keep reminding my self to short at good areas. eg: 53 area with right context.

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  #203 (permalink)
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jthom View Post
Good Shorting mate.

I must admit taking longs in this beast is painful. Just pointless.
Have to keep reminding my self to short at good areas. eg: 53 area with right context.

Short the bounces. As an Aussie you can relate to cricket analogy.




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  #204 (permalink)
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Based off yesterday's price action, i was looking for longs. Had to change my mind as there was NO BID for CL during Globex session. Short and out flat 51.10. Held runner long enough to see if 50 gets tested and may still do it.

No longs for me unless BUYERS show up. The bar for buyers is VERY HIGH. Price moving 40 ticks etc to the upside is not a sign of buyers i rely on. The best sign is FLUSH DOWN and i have not gotten a FLUSH DON in days , so no longs for me. This does not mean price can not move higher, it can and it does as obvious from last couple of days but i want FLUSH DOWN to put size on- otherwise small size for scalps from the long side.



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  #205 (permalink)
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I want this. This way one can get 50-80 ticks in 10 minutes. Without FLUSH DOWN, back and forth price movement and constantly wondering what's going on as ANALYSTS do all day. They wonder before move happens and then they wonder after move happens. They are WONDER KIDS.



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I want this. This way one can get 50-80 ticks in 10 minutes. Without FLUSH DOWN, back and forth price movement and constantly wondering what's going on as ANALYSTS do all day. They wonder before move happens and then they wonder after move happens. They are WONDER KIDS.


No FLUSH DOWN. reshort 50.82. Cover some 50.41. Break of 50 with FORCE can get another 50-80 ticks leg down. Longs never crossed my mind as there were no buyers. Days like today is the reason that a trader should not get too involved with scalping. When 300-500 ticks days come if one has been scalpng 20 ticks here and 10 ticks there- it's very difficult to adjust.



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  #207 (permalink)
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Retrace 61.8% and some reation. But green rangebar looks interesting.

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  #208 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
No FLUSH DOWN. reshort 50.82. Cover some 50.41. Break of 50 with FORCE can get another 50-80 ticks leg down. Longs never crossed my mind as there were no buyers. Days like today is the reason that a trader should not get too involved with scalping. When 300-500 ticks days come if one has been scalpng 20 ticks here and 10 ticks there- it's very difficult to adjust.


Holding some shorts for 4.30 pm API report. We can guess what API report will show later this afternoon.



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Holding some shorts for 4.30 pm API report. We can guess what API report will show later this afternoon.

Well reaction to API report is bullish. It does not matter what the report says, PRICE ACTION says 50 is REAL today. Out of balance of short at scratch at 50.80. By Bullish, I only mean that CL can run some during Globex session. Macro structure is still bearish for me. Range for me till DOE report is 50 to 52.50 area. I just have to make sure i do not initiate a new short close to 50 or new long close to 52.50 area.



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  #210 (permalink)
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Trading Box till DOE report at 10.30 am tomorrow.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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API INVENTORIES
--------------------------------
Crude: 1600k BUILD vs 6100k BUILD prev
Cushing: 979k BUILD vs 2600k BUILD prev
Gasoline : 1600k BUILD vs 2000k BUILD prev
Distillates : 497K BUILD vs 278k BUILD prev
R. U . Rate : DOWN 0.5 % at 88.7 %


I do not look at API numbers. For example if instead of juming 50 ticks to the upside after report if CL was down 50 ticks, i would have added to my shorts regardless of what report says. Some traders get too bogged down by actual numbers.



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One of the biggest lessons of technical analysis is that it is important to understand how markets usually move. If we can do that, then it becomes possible (in some cases) to identify what the most probable future price path is for any market. Let’s consider crude oil in this context:

Crude Oil Corrective Retracement?

crude oil bounce_corrective wave chart February 2015

In trends, markets typically move in alternating bouts of with-trend strength, interspersed with retracements (or consolidations) against that trend. That’s essentially a principle of market behavior, and is one of the most common trending patterns. Crude oil has been in a substantial downtrend since at least October 2014, and perhaps longer, depending how you define the trend. The recent Crude Oil bounce appears to have suckered in a lot of buyers, since under $50 crude appears to be a “bargain” to many players. Furthermore, strength in crude is being offered as an explanation for recent strength in stocks. All of this could be very dangerous.

There is a high probability that this bounce is nothing more than a retracement in an intact downtrend. Look at the chart above, which makes this clear. Even more dangerous would be another small bounce in crude oil, perhaps extending another week or so. (This is fairly likely.) Even with that second bounce, we will still probably have only outlined a larger Crude Oil bounce against the trend, and there’s a good chance this market will turn lower again.

Understanding market structure like this can help you put your trades in context. If you are a short-term trader, there’s probably nothing wrong with buying oil here, but where is your stop? It doesn’t need to be under the January lows – that’s more of a profit target for bears. Conversely, if you are short here, you probably need to be prepared for the possibility of another Crude Oil bounce, perhaps even to stand ready to short into that bounce, with appropriate stops and risk controls. Understand your market. Know your risk. Plan your trade, and trade your plan.

Follow Adam on Twitter: @AdamHGrimes

No position in any of the mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.



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  #213 (permalink)
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good stuff

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  #214 (permalink)
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I thought crude would come up higher above 52.50 this morning to at least test 53.00
Instead I watched it fall off a cliff. Was not confident to enter in anywhere.

Nice trading @mfbreakout . Well analysed.

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jthom View Post
I thought crude would come up higher above 52.50 this morning to at least test 53.00
Instead I watched it fall off a cliff. Was not confident to enter in anywhere.

Nice trading @mfbreakout . Well analysed.

If you did not feel comfortable shorting at ORH once OR was formed- next more definitive short was when 51.80 was broken.
51.80 being Globex low.

I also thought that CL will go to 53 etc that's why my short was with a small position size and added to short once 51.80 was broken.



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Well reaction to API report is bullish. It does not matter what the report says, PRICE ACTION says 50 is REAL today. Out of balance of short at scratch at 50.80. By Bullish, I only mean that CL can run some during Globex session. Macro structure is still bearish for me. Range for me till DOE report is 50 to 52.50 area. I just have to make sure i do not initiate a new short close to 50 or new long close to 52.50 area.


6.55 AM and CL is at 49.70? What happened to that 80 ticks move from 50.40 area to 51.20 after API report yesterday?
First the move shook me out of my shorts from 50.80 area and it turned out to be a head fake. It happens but i have to follow my RULES.

Now for me CL is in a NO MANS land. If i short STOP LOSS is too wide ( above 51.20 and 51.80 area) and if i go long STOP LOSS will be under 49. I will just have to sit on hands and wait.



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Execution of a trade:

Regardless of how i come up with resistance area of 51.20, 51.80 etc whether it's based of PRICE ACTION, pattern etc.
One thing never ever changes for me. I need a FLUSH UP. Bigger the FLUSH UP, bigger the position size. If CL just moves back and forth and come to an area where i would like to short, i use small position size.

As an example, lets say CL moves from 49.50 area to 50.50 ( 100 ticks ) in one 5 minute bar and then another massive bar or subsequent smaller bars to 51 area- I will SHORT the hell of it. If no FLUSH UP and CL keeps moving up in a slow up and down move- there is no telling where she will stop. It can be 51.20, 51.80 or 53 etc. Similalrly, it will be much easier to try long on FLUSH DOWN vs just guessing as to where support is.

FLUSH UP OR FLUSH DOWN represents a change to me. Good trading opportunities ONLY comes when there is a change. Following is an example of few choice USELESS commentory from various sources. Most of these guys live or die in a SCALPING UNIVERSE but they are full of ideas, feelngs etc.. All post are from yesterday night eastern time.

1) Yes with inv not great we can go above 54.60 ! Bullish 10.40 pm

2) $53 is possible once we bottom! 10 pm

3) Yes we can ignite up higher with inv wow !!!!yes 70 in March !!! !!!!!!! Bullish

4) Desperate desperate shorts we may never see 48 we can ignite much higher Bullish 11.44 pm

5) long at 50.22 for 20 contracts...looking for a run into 50.47 to 50.65 ...will tighten the stop soon.. Bullish 10.45 pm

6) Should bottom in the $48-49 range before shooting up to that $60 mark! 11 pm


Internet is a wonderful thing. In an itself there is nothing wrong with above statements except that they are looking for these ideas to play out with a TIGHT STOP. Tighter the better. Men by nature are focused and like certain things being very tight.



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  #218 (permalink)
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Short 50.11. Cover some 49.70

Who cut prices when demand is STRONG and SUPPLY is tight?

" Bloomberg) -- Iraq, Kuwait and Iran joined Saudi Arabia in cutting their March crude prices for Asia, signaling the battle for a share of OPEC’s largest market is intensifying.
Iraq’s Basrah Light crude will sell at $4.10 a barrel below Middle East benchmarks, the deepest discount since at least August 2003, the Oil Marketing Co. said Tuesday. National Iranian Oil Co. said its official selling price for March Light crude sales will be a discount of $2.10 a barrel, the widest since at least March 2000, according to a company official who asked not to be identified because of corporate policy. Kuwait Petroleum Corp. said Wednesday its discount will be $4.10, the biggest since August 2008.
The cuts come after Saudi Arabia, the largest crude exporter, reduced pricing to Asia last week to the lowest in at least 14 years. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries left its members’ output targets unchanged at a November meeting, choosing to compete for market share against U.S. shale producers rather than support prices. Iraq is the second-biggest producer in OPEC, Kuwait is third and Iran fourth.
“This is an effort by some producers to protect market share,” Sarah Emerson, managing principal of ESAI Energy Inc., a consulting company in Wakefield, Massachusetts, said by phone Tuesday. “It’s really straightforward; cutting prices is how you keep your foot in the door.”



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  #219 (permalink)
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Since everyday is a brand new day for Captain Happy

This is about all I have for now (pick a short wherever it feels good)

-Bill



EDIT

Captain Happy = /CL

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mfbreakout View Post
Execution of a trade:

Regardless of how i come up with resistance area of 51.20, 51.80 etc whether it's based of PRICE ACTION, pattern etc.
One thing never ever changes for me. I need a FLUSH UP. Bigger the FLUSH UP, bigger the position size. If CL just

Would you mind explaining what you mean by flush up/down? Also, can you contrast this to your other comment about scalping?

Thanks!

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kurlare View Post
Would you mind explaining what you mean by flush up/down? Also, can you contrast this to your other comment about scalping?

Thanks!

regarding Flush up and Flush down please see attached chart. I am not sure i understand your 2nd question " Contrast this with Scalping"? some traders call them as exhaustion bars. I want to go long when on massive volume CL does not go any lower and short on massive volume when CL can not go higher. A trader has to give some room to the trade to breathe. So, if one went long around 48.40 area- he/she can not just put stop loss at 47.99 and watch CL hit 50.

NOTE: Correct chart re posted. Earlier chart was not meant for this post.



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Flush Up.

Buyer beware..



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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mfbreakout View Post
regarding Flush up and Flush down please see attached chart. I am not sure i understand your 2nd question " Contrast this with Scalping"? some traders call them as exhaustion bars. I want to go long when on massive volume CL does not go any lower and short on massive volume when CL can not go higher. A trader has to give some room to the trade to breathe. So, if one went long around 48.40 area- he/she can not just put stop loss at 47.99 and watch CL hit 50.

NOTE: Correct chart re posted. Earlier chart was not meant for this post.

I think I understand what you are saying now. I have also noticed over the course of my trading that when there is a large move in one direction coupled with a tremendous amount of volume relative to the other time periods (5 min or more doesn't really matter), that is the time to exit if you were in and time to look to trade the other way if you weren't. So if you were short, you wanna exit your short on that huge surge in selling pressure. I never put a term to it but flush up/flush down makes good sense to me. Flushing out the longs, and the rest of the volume is shorts taking profit/getting long. I really like what you're saying and showing. Thanks!

As far as the scalping question, you had posted this earlier: "Most of these guys live or die in a SCALPING UNIVERSE but they are full of ideas, feelngs etc.."

Can you explain what you mean by scalping universe? It sounds like from the context of your post that you are casting them in a negative light so I just want to understand what your criticism of that trading style is, as you see it.

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kurlare View Post
I think I understand what you are saying now. I have also noticed over the course of my trading that when there is a large move in one direction coupled with a tremendous amount of volume relative to the other time periods (5 min or more doesn't really matter), that is the time to exit if you were in and time to look to trade the other way if you weren't. So if you were short, you wanna exit your short on that huge surge in selling pressure. I never put a term to it but flush up/flush down makes good sense to me. Flushing out the longs, and the rest of the volume is shorts taking profit/getting long. I really like what you're saying and showing. Thanks!

As far as the scalping question, you had posted this earlier: "Most of these guys live or die in a SCALPING UNIVERSE but they are full of ideas, feelngs etc.."

Can you explain what you mean by scalping universe? It sounds like from the context of your post that you are casting them in a negative light so I just want to understand what your criticism of that trading style is, as you see it.

I am in position to cast anyone in a -ve way especially when i do not know a person. My comment was general in nature and was pointing to the FACT that traders who scalp ( my definition of scalp is anything less than 25 ticks) should not DREAM about clearing 100, 200+ ticks. It just not gonna work.

I have scalped for 3 years and stopped doing it after i realized either i need to set up an auto. trading system to scalp or as a discretionary trader focus on BIG PICTURE and big targets. I decided to FOCUS on being a discretionary trader and not compete with HFT, Algos.. etc This does not mean every trade i take , i am looking to get 100+ ticks. That's what the goal is.



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  #225 (permalink)
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Alright, so you just meant that there are traders who have big ideas about where the market is headed (50+ ticks) but in practice all they do is scalp?

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kurlare View Post
Alright, so you just meant that there are traders who have big ideas about where the market is headed (50+ ticks) but in practice all they do is scalp?

But big targets- big picture comes with it's own POISON. There is no free lunch.

NOTE: Trade #1 from chart got cut off. It should read short 50.11. Cover some 49.70 before NY open. I wanted to add to short in case NY open gave a bounce. It never did, so i held on to rest of my shorts.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Supposedly there's Greece talks going on as I type. So if you have an open position...

-Bill

EDIT


Quoting 
50 Pips ‏@50Pips 18s18 seconds ago

heads up eurogroup comments to hit wires...

EDIT


Quoting 
Live Squawk ‏@livesquawk 3m3 minutes ago

Euro Group Press Conference Stream (When Delivered) https://stks.co/c1fuk


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I guess it was good news



-Bill



EDIT

It will be interesting to see if this flows over (to?)

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Let's see what this gets us (or does it)

-Bill




EDIT

4984 HWB long Globex

EDIT

In addition to all the Circus Magic (ie HWB/ long, short) I also consider 1) price action at whole numbers (50) and quarter numbers, 2) time of day

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M1 view

-Bill_M



EDIT

Next on deck 5102 +/-

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The anatomy of a chart from someone who has no clue as to what is going on and always knows what is going to happen next

White dots are 15 and 45 minute marks
Red squares one hour (top of the hour)
Green dots half hour

Blue/ red lines are 55 RSI (support/ resist)
Cyan/ orange 34 RSI
Dark red/ green 17 RSI w/ smoothing
Candles VSA_Lite 89 period lookback w/ two standard deviation moves

Cheers

-Bill


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As long as this Capt Happy HS keeps going


Quoting 
Live Squawk ‏@livesquawk 21m21 minutes ago

ECB Boost Greek ELA Allowance To EUR65 Bln

... we'll continue to have volatility in the markets

-Bill

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  #233 (permalink)
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If i get 2-3 FLUSH UPS and FLUSH DOWNS in a week, i will be a very happy trader. Problem is we do not get them and i start looking for other set ups - which is OK but i tend to use wrong position size on those days and when A+ set ups come, even though i have right position size, i get shaken out and cut down size.

I have been working on this for 2 years but OLD HABITS die hard. That's why during first couple of years it's important to develop right habits. Unfortunately i acquired all the GARBAGE during first 3 years and still trying to get RID of them.


NOTE: I have no idea what CL will do or should do. All i know when everyone is BULLISH, i take theother side and vice versa.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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@mfbreakout

"All i know when everyone is BULLISH, i take the other side and vice versa."

That's as good a plan as any

-Bill

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Majority of traders were drawing all kind of stuff on their charts when CL was at 54 and calling CL target 57 and then 60 etc.
When 50 broke this week ( i have no idea why that will be important) they start looking at 45 and then 40.

I just try to keep following picture in mind. DON"T BE A BAG HOLDER.

NOTE: taking the opposite side ONLY when macro trend is bearish like in CL. E-mini bullish trend. I just look for longs on pullbacks. If i short- there has to be very convincing macro reason/news behind it.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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If i get 2-3 FLUSH UPS and FLUSH DOWNS in a week, i will be a very happy trader.

I don't know if this will help or not.

But I'm starting to lean on Sierra Chart more and more each day (I'm sure there's a way to get the indy's I mentioned in a previous post and when I do ToS is out the door) but one of the nice features SC has (of many) is you can code the background to change color when the Ask/ Bid is at a certain level, ie hello we have meltdown or lift off.

Also I was in a @FuturesTrader71 and @DionysusToast webinar on TUE and saw Peter is now using SC. So I guess Jigsaw is now linked w/ SC (good thing.)

Anyway just a thought

-Bill_M

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Some traders are just lazy and hide behind " I am a Pice Action" trader and do not either have time or inclination to see what successful Global traders do and how they look at markets.

British Global Macro trder Raul Pal is one of my favourite. Posting just in case some traders are in mood to learn something new.

The Law of Unintended Consequences - Raoul Pal
Raoul Pal, former hedge fund manager and author of the Global Macro Investor research letter, speaks on Real Vision in December 2014. In this eye-opening presentation, Pal describes the unintended consequences of a rising dollar - the knock-on effects to emerging markets and oil, the potential Chinese policy response, and why the dollar run could go further than anyone thinks. Click here to watch the video: https://hvst.co/1v6sQvR


NOTE: Raul is a big time technical and global macro trader. According to him he would be lost without charts. I have been a member of REALVISION TV for over a year now and love it.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Interesting tought provokoing title/ subject

@nanexllc


Quoting 
Anyone know the reason for the WTI/Brent divergence?

One reply was WTI tied to NOK



Others were production costs, storage etc

-Bill

EDIT

Well I'll be darned


Quoting 
Eric Scott Hunsader @nanexllc


@Uozob It's not NOK (well a little is) - composition and production costs, perhaps


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Interesting tought provokoing title/ subject
One reply was WTI tied to NOK

Others were production costs, storage etc
-Bill

and somebody else asked "Is Brent more sensitive to interest rates?"


My fav was

Quoting 
SouthpawSlinger ‏@SouthpawSlinger 44m44 minutes ago
@nanexllc seriously? this happens all time

But probably mostly due to an ever increasing storage situation at Cushing.

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  #240 (permalink)
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I don't trade using this information but its interesting nonetheless...


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-Bill


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One ist test of 51 area during lunch hour Shorted 50.97. Out 50.54. Now sitting on hands. This slow up move, i have no idea where CL is going or will stop.

if i see a FLUSH up - where ever it is- it should be around 150 ticks to the upside, i will try short. If CL just goes up 40 tics, pullsback 20 ticks and keep up march, there is no trade for me.

I am dreaming about quick up moves with massive Volume till exhausation bar shows up. A short at that point with size for relatively quick 50-80 ticks will be one of the easier trade.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Sometimes I scalp the pit close other times not (obviously not right now)

If you're going to trade the close, put on your jock strap, grab the saddle horn and don't polish your boots 'cause you're gonna to get 'em dirty

Do 'ya think this guys ass puckered? (and selling in the middle of the bar, but I'm fairly certain that was not the case at the time of hitting the GO button, or maybe it was an algo,,,,)

5114 was not trading at the time of the screen capture as noted by the time stamp on the time and sales and the clock in the window

-Bill


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One ist test of 51 area during lunch hour Shorted 50.97. Out 50.54. Now sitting on hands. This slow up move, i have no idea where CL is going or will stop.

if i see a FLUSH up - where ever it is- it should be around 150 ticks to the upside, i will try short. If CL just goes up 40 tics, pullsback 20 ticks and keep up march, there is no trade for me.

I am dreaming about quick up moves with massive Volume till exhausation bar shows up. A short at that point with size for relatively quick 50-80 ticks will be one of the easier trade.

No trade for me. I need either one side , longs or shorts to be trapped to take a trade. Without IMBALANCE there is no opportunity worth trading.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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^^That's a damn good point thank you

-Bill

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EIA tracking tool shows light-sweet crude oil imports to Gulf Coast virtually eliminated

EIA tracking tool shows light-sweet crude oil imports to Gulf Coast virtually eliminated - Today in Energy - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)




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SMCJB on Feb 5th View Post

Well it took a little longer than I expected but it did come back, maybe has a few more cents in it as well.

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One ist test of 51 area during lunch hour Shorted 50.97. Out 50.54. Now sitting on hands. This slow up move, i have no idea where CL is going or will stop.

if i see a FLUSH up - where ever it is- it should be around 150 ticks to the upside, i will try short. If CL just goes up 40 tics, pullsback 20 ticks and keep up march, there is no trade for me.

I am dreaming about quick up moves with massive Volume till exhausation bar shows up. A short at that point with size for relatively quick 50-80 ticks will be one of the easier trade.

Did the opening drive qualify as a flush up? It went about 150 ticks or so I think. I didn't have a long set up either....price didn't go down far enough for me but I did short near the top....closed early but logical location for me......but I'm curious if the flush up you wanted was AFTER the morning drive to a price somewhere much higher than that? Or was that the flush you were waiting for?

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Did the opening drive qualify as a flush up? It went about 150 ticks or so I think. I didn't have a long set up either....price didn't go down far enough for me but I did short near the top....closed early but logical location for me......but I'm curious if the flush up you wanted was AFTER the morning drive to a price somewhere much higher than that? Or was that the flush you were waiting for?

Yes, opening drive qualify as a Flush up and i shorted it. I was looking for another flush up into the closeto take next short.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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OVX.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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I must say that I have been looking for a push up to ~52, currently long. Its been holding up in the after hours but not as strong as I would have hoped. We should find out in the next couple of hours which way it goes from here.

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OVX.

One note about OVX. Probably purely a technicality to most of you, but OVX is actually the Crude Oil Volatility Index based upon option prices for the Crude Oil ETF USO and not the underlying futures contract CL.

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I must say that I have been looking for a push up to ~52, currently long. Its been holding up in the after hours but not as strong as I would have hoped. We should find out in the next couple of hours which way it goes from here.

Right on time...now will have to see how much power is going to be behind this move. Hasn't broken the days high at 51.60 yet. Exits currently at ~51.80 and ~52.20, subject to revision as market conditions warrant (both up or down).

Edit:
Moved first target up too far to 51.95. Trailing stop exited me on both halves at 51.66.

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You might have different price action levels, but this is what I'm starting with

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How do you catch a move like what just happened?

First and foremost, Foghorn Leghorn applies

We had a half-way-back long with a substantial amount of participation in the early Globex session (5107)

Frankfurt an London respected the HWB which had an anchor from the early Globex, mostly front run 5163 (I've found /CL will vary, exact number? Yes, no, maybe - experience.)

We had a down trend line starting in the early London session continuing into the Frankfurt/ London afternoon session

It seems most overlooked the "clean" (vs the jagged down trend line) price level at 5183 coming out of the Frankfurt/ London open

Everybody loaded up short not paying attention to the HWB long which had the initial (what traded first?) price action (participation) from Globex and Europe sessions.

Somebody in New York got to the office early and skull fu***d everybody that was short in Frankfurt and London

That's all I have, take heed, take note

-Bill_M



EDIT

What caused me to make the initial 50 retrace pull at 5053?

Something (pick what you want) was sure as hell holding "up" price at 5107.

Better explanations are welcome and appreciated

Maybe it was this?


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@mfbreakout

MFB - nice to see you posting again.

Short - H&S - looking to break under OR - perhaps we can get 150 tivk today

Steve

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The never ending cycle of bull shit


Quoting 
Live Squawk ‏@livesquawk 8m8 minutes ago

EU’s Juncker: Says Greece Is Far From A Deal With EU – France24

-Bill

EDIT

Livesquawk about an hour ago


Quoting 
So we've gone from "Far Apart" to a "Distinct Possibility" in three hours #Greece #euro


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Actually - not so much H&S - but consolidation ...regardless ...sticking to my Short -

Stop Loss 53.20

Scenario 2: Visiting Pervoious Week High : 54.20?

9:50 : got out with 20 tick loss - at around 53.11 - considering long for 30 ticks

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Gotta give you guy's 'n gal's credit with long term short conviction

... cojones of steel

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Gotta give you guy's 'n gal's credit with long term short conviction

... cojones of steel

-Bill

Intraday short term short

Looks to me more CHOP than anything - a b it toppy - short again 52.95 first target

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It took me a long time to understand set ups which are equal to gambling and set ups which have high degree/probability of success.
Traders can not help themselves ( including me) to call tops and bottoms etc. and then use tight stop loss to fight against the machine.
As i have posted many times my highest return trades are FLUSH UP and FLUSH DOWNS. Around 8.30 am eastern time when CL hit 82.97 area- it had some qualities of a flush up.

I shorted 52.89 area. Covered some at 52.60 area and rest scratched. I have been sitting on hands since then. If there are longs for traders looking for 54 etc- it's on pullbacks around ORL area off 52.60 area. I did not take longs on pullbacks and now i just have to sit tight.

If there is a 100+ ticks FLUSH up ( from prce action, it seems like it's just matter of time), i will look at it, otherwise nothing wrong with watching a movie.
How about longs? Longs where ? at 53.20 and then see CL pullback to 52.80 and add to longs? What if CL drops to 52.50 , add more to longs ? That's a different kind of trading and beyond my skillset. CL can drop 40-80 ticks without in a NY minute. This area is very dangerous. It can FLUSH UP ( mor elikely and i would love to see it) or lul new longs at highs and then pull the rug. ONLY traders who have been building positions from 50 and up area have an edge. They can handle 40-80 ticks pullback and still be sitting pretty. JOHNNY COME LATELY trying new longs at highs- well we all know some times get SURPRISED.

ONLY one thing is CLEAR- no shorts without sizeable FLUSH UP or significant selling at highs. CL can run beyond any standard deviation we can think off. Shorts at 53.30 are good also but will require a wide stop loss and ability to add into bounces plus LONG HOLD TIME. It's not about short 53.30 and stop los at 53.41 etc.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #262 (permalink)
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Ugh, still trying to get used to/ incorporate the foot print charts

Time is still time, like clockwork (pun intended)

-Bill



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  #263 (permalink)
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Waiting for second target 52.70

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Addind to short around .84

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I made a comment earlier this morning about front running a measured move 50% retrace and it bothered me that I could not give the folks here a better explanation

I learned a whole bunch of stuff from David Halsey at eminiaddict dot com over the past years, so most of the half-way-back stuff is ingrained in my brain. However it serves no purpose for the folks popping in here (and there.)

David does a damn good job and has a set of rules he sticks to, of which is the maximum front run. Typically it is four for /ES and six for /6E. I can't remember off the top of my head the exact number for /CL but obviously it can't be 20 or something like that.

In the below M1 chart is a good example of a micro measured move with a front run of four (six.) The larger pull that is partially showing (yellow line 50% 5260) is a measured move of low to high, which is a much safer (probability) pull with likely participation (price action.) When I say low you can have Globex, pit open, yesterday number(s) etc. The thing that makes the larger pull a no brainer is it is the low of the morning moonshot to high. It also happens to be 0700amET but that is a story for another day.

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  #266 (permalink)
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The CL analysis thread. How bout the littlest bit of technical analysis thrown in here rather than a quick little of snips

Everyone should remember how dangerous day- trading was when it first came out back in the 90's.
People killed themselves over this.

How bout' looking a bit longer term, at least three god- damned weeks out. At the trend line. CL has now hopped above the trend line. However, I am I going to guess that the trend line is still effective, only now we are above the trend line. The fundamentals are too strong. The Saudis are protecting their asses. They are squeezing out the frackers. At the same time the Saudis are able to strike at the Russians, who a highly dependent upon oil and the Iranians at the same time. I don't know the politics involved. I suspect that it is highly connected to America.

And you have the president of Venezuela, begging to the Chinese to loans, and visiting Iran for support. Oh, God, Christ why can't they just go back to living how poor they were 10 years ago and get used to that. Another question is when Venezuela's bonds are going to default.

I've had this woman from Vantagepoint software trying to sell me on their software several times. She is a good saleswoman. She does good follow-up. The software costs between 3000.00 to 5000.00 depending on which program you buy.

So, I asked here send me a sample, show me WTI crude oil when it jumped up and what was Vantagepoint recommendation on that.

She sent a chart with a crossover between the 10 simple moving average and the four day exponential moving average.

I do trust that other people have put a lot of intelligence and study into the market.

What's are other people's take on the cross - over on the 10 day SMA and the 4 day EMA as a trading strategy.
I looked at Gold and this seems to be quite effective for that.

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e4williams View Post
The CL analysis thread. How bout the littlest bit of technical analysis thrown in here rather than a quick little of snips

Everyone should remember how dangerous day- trading was when it first came out back in the 90's.
People killed themselves over this.

How bout' looking a bit longer term, at least three god- damned weeks out. At the trend line. CL has now hopped above the trend line. However, I am I going to guess that the trend line is still effective, only now we are above the trend line. The fundamentals are too strong. The Saudis are protecting their asses. They are squeezing out the frackers. At the same time the Saudis are able to strike at the Russians, who a highly dependent upon oil and the Iranians at the same time. I don't know the politics involved. I suspect that it is highly connected to America.

And you have the president of Venezuela, begging to the Chinese to loans, and visiting Iran for support. Oh, God, Christ why can't they just go back to living how poor they were 10 years ago and get used to that. Another question is when Venezuela's bonds are going to default.

I've had this woman from Vantagepoint software trying to sell me on their software several times. She is a good saleswoman. She does good follow-up. The software costs between 3000.00 to 5000.00 depending on which program you buy.

So, I asked here send me a sample, show me WTI crude oil when it jumped up and what was Vantagepoint recommendation on that.

She sent a chart with a crossover between the 10 simple moving average and the four day exponential moving average.

I do trust that other people have put a lot of intelligence and study into the market.

What's are other people's take on the cross - over on the 10 day SMA and the 4 day EMA as a trading strategy.
I looked at Gold and this seems to be quite effective for that.

It may help to ask a specific question from the posts different traders post. There is pletny of technical analysis. It's just not in one post. futures.io (formerly BMT) community relies on different point of views and ideas. Look forward to your posts regarding your trades and set ups. I can not comment on Vanatge or any other software. Each trader has to develop context for BIG PICTURE and tools for execution. I am not aware of any software which provides conetx for trading. There is an existing thread at futures.io (formerly BMT) where vendors of all kinds are discussed. Look under search tab.



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I made a comment earlier this morning about front running a measured move 50% retrace and it bothered me that I could not give the folks here a better explanation

I learned a whole bunch of stuff from David Halsey at eminiaddict dot com over the past years, so most of the half-way-back stuff is ingrained in my brain. However it serves no purpose for the folks popping in here (and there.)

David does a damn good job and has a set of rules he sticks to, of which is the maximum front run. Typically it is four for /ES and six for /6E. I can't remember off the top of my head the exact number for /CL but obviously it can't be 20 or something like that.

In the below M1 chart is a good example of a micro measured move with a front run of four (six.) The larger pull that is partially showing (yellow line 50% 5260) is a measured move of low to high, which is a much safer (probability) pull with likely participation (price action.) When I say low you can have Globex, pit open, yesterday number(s) etc. The thing that makes the larger pull a no brainer is it is the low of the morning moonshot to high. It also happens to be 0700amET but that is a story for another day.

Ride safe

-Bill



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Have You had your boat in the water lately, or the scooter out of the shed?

Just kidding, well actually rubbing it in a little Cold up there in "Old Kin-tuck" this time of year I'm sure.

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  #269 (permalink)
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@e4williams


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And you have the president of Venezuela

I'm more interested in the President of Argentina, say'n

Anyway, like @mfbreakout said jump in, chime in

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Well, thanks for the two requests for my input.

I am curious about the relationship to the dollar to oil and (also to the equities market) any ideas on just how that works. Does the dollar, lead the way on that one? Does oil run second place on that?

Also, does anyone have advice on a charting service? I am still choosing a trading platform. I was not impressed with Ninjatrader's charting. I just signed on to Ameritrade's Think or Swim and I think I lite that better already. I do a lot of extensive chart studies and yet I have not yet found anything better than investing.com which offers a great charting service however they don't list certain futures that I would like to look at.

I don't care if the charting service is different than the platform I choose. Any recommendations just on charting??

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Thought id post for once.
CL been somewhat tricky to trade lately. However putting things into context I was following this 4 hour chart closely.
Trade was taken within Asian session right at market open. Shorted a FLUSH up then loaded.




First trade was stopped out at 40 ticks. In like 2 seconds. Very dangerous with thin liquidity.
Id be curious to see if we go down to 50?

Big shout out to Tariq! Context Context Context!


James

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May see some odd volatility due to some participants taking the day off with the shortened Monday trading. Also got a contract roll coming up.

I am trying to figure out if you loaded long when you said "Shorted a FLUSH up then loaded."

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  #274 (permalink)
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I loaded shorts on the move up. If it clearly broke that 4 hour resistance (100 ticks) I would of got out.

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Here's a study I'm currently working on. I've set the study to mark the high and low of each two hour time frame. Start time is 0200amET and end time is 1500ET.

When looking at the "count number" it is the number of occurrence long or short. For example if the high or low at 2am was at the top of the hour it would get a one or two (one is high and two is low.) If the high was at 215am it would get 1.25 and if 245am it would get 1.75, reverse for low would be two respectively.

As you can see the 1500ET window is blank and so far the spreadsheet has 41 records. As I enter in more records I suspect the "time bin" will not change much only an increase of occurrence.

How do I know this? On my M1 chart I have marks at the hour, half hour, fifteen minute and forty-five minute. I've been tracking this on /6E and /CL.

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Thoughts on where we are going?
Anyone think we can move lower to the 50.00 area before moving up?

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Cl is correcting back towards the prevailing trend line. Currently in a sideways pattern. It seems the target of the correction will be the convergence of the trend line and the noted area of congestion. Key level is 53.45. Then 54.19. Above these levels one would expect the congestion area to be hit. The alternative is that there is a 5 wave price pattern underway. This view would call for a fall back to the lower support line. Will have to trade it as it happens.


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If anybody is interested in more information on my post #275

Here:

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  #279 (permalink)
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I shorted between 53:10 to 52:80 based off 240 min context. US session finally paid off on move.
I like trading this way. Just VERY HARD to execute entries and manage their risk!
Hope we see 51 - 50.50 this week before rollover.

Good luck

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I shorted between 53:10 to 52:80 based off 240 min context. US session finally paid off on move.
I like trading this way. Just VERY HARD to execute entries and manage their risk!
Hope we see 51 - 50.50 this week before rollover.

Good luck

FWIW my targets are 51.21 and 50.71 and would like to at least see the top one hit today. I have been waiting on this sell-off as well. The poor holiday action drove me crazy...haha.

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  #281 (permalink)
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The 1st target will probably be hit in next 5 mins. Dropping hard!

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I very rarely post my trades any longer but this one was pretty good so decided to post it...





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I very rarely post my trades any longer but this one was pretty good so decided to post it...

Congrats... very nice trade for the time in market.

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I very rarely post my trades any longer but this one was pretty good so decided to post it...

good luck on your surgery-g

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good luck on your surgery-g

Thank you......If its not to ugly, I'll post a picture of it in my thread.....I'm trying to get them to video tape it or at least the good parts anyway...not sure if they'll go for it though.....but I thought since its a teaching hospital, surely they can record a simple brain surgery!!!! So far no answer.....

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The 1st target will probably be hit in next 5 mins. Dropping hard!

Not 5 minutes, took a whole 25 minutes to get my fill

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Not 5 minutes, took a whole 25 minutes to get my fill


Nice trade.....

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Thank you......If its not to ugly, I'll post a picture of it in my thread.....I'm trying to get them to video tape it or at least the good parts anyway...not sure if they'll go for it though.....but I thought since its a teaching hospital, surely they can record a simple brain surgery!!!! So far no answer.....



FRANKENPANDASTEIN

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FRANKENPANDA


LOL!!!

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  #290 (permalink)
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Took the other half off my trade @ 50.85, now flat.

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Ok looks like it's time to sh** or get off the pot

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I would agree with that sentiment, needs to bounce here or it goes to 49.50 in the next couple of hours. (and I would prefer the bounce/consolidation first to setup a new trade)

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Took the other half off my trade @ 50.85, now flat.

Good work mate. Nice holding.

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Maybe crazy but I dipped my toe in long, @51.05

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  #295 (permalink)
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Holding shorts for a FLUSH DOWN.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Holding shorts for a FLUSH DOWN.

Are you targeting the 49.50 area? A flush down would break all meaningful resistance on the 60 minute chart and force a reaction to the mid to low 49s. That may be the trade...

My biggest issues with the small long is getting footing above 51.25. If it can manage that then I would feel better.

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Are you targeting the 49.50 area? A flush down would break all meaningful resistance on the 60 minute chart and force a reaction to the mid to low 49s. That may be the trade...

My biggest issues with the small long is getting footing above 51.25. If it can manage that then I would feel better.

I was looking at 50.40 area but i am out now 51.21. FLUSH DOWN is more of a signal for me to determine size of a position on reversal and to determine if longs makes sense today.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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I understand what you mean about the flushes. I feel my long is counter trend but the move could be sizeable just as a reaction (~$1 off the lows maybe). Then a retest of the ~51.20 support again (which I might add got pounded on this run down), would be the third play.

My current exit on the long is 51.88 but will be high mobile (higher or lower) depending on price action.

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Mini FLUSH DOWNS . I use them to add to shorts. Algos, HFT are mostly interested in 20, 30 ticks in and out all day long. That's the reason i stopped scalping. I can not compete with mahines but one can make some reasonable assumptions as to how machie driven trading gets set up.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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me thinks crudes a buy here...

small long here

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futures io Trading Community Traders Hideout Commodities > The CL Crude-analysis Thread


Last Updated on February 12, 2021


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