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The CL Crude-analysis Thread


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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

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  #2571 (permalink)
 SMCJB 
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Permian Production Growth Creeps into the WTI Midland Forward Curve

https://www.cmegroup.com/articles/whitepapers/permian-production-growth-creeps-into-the-wti-midland-forward-curve.html

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  #2572 (permalink)
 SMCJB 
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CRUDE OIL MARGINS EFFECTIVE 30TH JUNE

Maintenance margin as follows (Initial Margins, ie non-member rates will be 110% of these)
Tier 1 / Aug22 unchanged at $8350,
Tier 2 / Sep22 decreasing from $8250 to $8000, -$250
Tier 3 / Oct22 decreasing from $8000 to $7700, -$300
...
Tier 5 / Dec22 decreasing from $7500 to $7100, -$400
...
Tier 17 / Dec23 decreasing from $5800 to $5100, -$700
...
Tier 29 / Dec24 decreasing from $4500 to $3800, -$700

https://www.cmegroup.com/notices/clearing/2022/06/Chadv22-251.html

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  #2573 (permalink)
 SMCJB 
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And back up again.... especially in the 2023 contracts...

CRUDE OIL MARGINS EFFECTIVE 8TH JULY

Maintenance margin as follows (Initial Margins, ie non-member rates will be 110% of these)
Tier 1 / Aug22 increasing from $8350 to $8600 +$250
Tier 2 / Sep22 increasing from $8000 to $8300, +$300
Tier 3 / Oct22 increasing from $7700 to $8100, +$400
Tier 4 / Nov22 increasing from $7300 to $8000, +$700
Tier 5 / Dec22 increasing from $7100 to $7900, +$800
Tier 6 / Jan23 increasing from $6900 to $7800, +$900
Tier 7 / Feb23 increasing from $6600 to $7600, +$1000
...
Tier 11 / Jun23 increasing from $5800 to $6400, +$600
...
Tier 17 / Dec23 increasing from $5100 to $5500, +$400
...
Tier 29 / Dec24 increasing from $3800 to $3850, +$50

https://www.cmegroup.com/notices/clearing/2022/07/Chadv22-260.html

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  #2574 (permalink)
 SMCJB 
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Cross posting this from another thread as I feel its relevant here and one of the real reasons behind the super high crack spreads we currently seeing.


SMCJB View Post
On a slight tangent, everybody is quick to blame all sorts of reasons for the current cost of Gasoline and Diesel. Something that doesn't get much attention though is the impact China is having. These are two images from Platts/S&P Global website showing Chinas export of high end petroleum products. Exports are down 10 million tonnes from last year and even more since 2020. I believe these numbers are monthly so 10 million tonnes = 65 million barrels = 2.15 Million Barrels Day. That's equivalent to almost 2.5% of world crude oil production per day!


https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/PlattsContent/_assets/_images/latest-news/060722-china-oil-product-quotas.svg


https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/PlattsContent/_assets/_images/latest-news/03c069bb-6a29-4340-aaf9-f54fe8a4a8d0.svg


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Last Updated on July 22, 2022


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