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The CL Crude-analysis Thread


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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

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  #2561 (permalink)
Symple
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  #2563 (permalink)
 SMCJB 
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Good old Trafigura and Vitol, always prepared to get paid to do the business everybody else shuns.

Reuters :- Commodities trading houses help keep Russian oil flowing

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/commodities-trading-houses-help-keep-russian-oil-flowing-2022-03-25/

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  #2564 (permalink)
 SMCJB 
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SMCJB View Post
Good old Trafigura and Vitol, always prepared to get paid to do the business everybody else shuns.

Reuters :- Commodities trading houses help keep Russian oil flowing

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/commodities-trading-houses-help-keep-russian-oil-flowing-2022-03-25/

and Vitol in the news again... obviously you get paid well do to do the business everybody else shuns...

Reuters :- Vitol made record net profit in 2021 -sources

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/exclusive-vitol-made-record-net-profit-full-year-2021-sources-2022-03-29/
Global energy trader Vitol Group made a record net profit of just over $4 billion last year

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  #2565 (permalink)
 SMCJB 
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Dallas Fed Energy Survey, First Quarter | March 23, 2022

https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/des/2022/2201

Some interesting questions in the Special Questions Section.

eg

In the top two areas in which your firm is active: What WTI oil price does your firm need to profitably drill a new well?

For the entire sample, firms need $56 per barrel on average to profitably drill ... Across regions, average breakeven prices to profitably drill a new well range from $48 to $69 per barrel ... Large firms need $49 per barrel on average to profitably drill, lower than the $59 for small firms.

By what percent do you expect your firmís crude oil production to change from fourth quarter 2021 to fourth quarter 2022?

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  #2566 (permalink)
 SMCJB 
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CRUDE OIL MARGINS EFFECTIVE 6TH APRIL

Maintenance margin as follows (Initial Margins, ie non-member rates will be 110% of these)
Tier 1 / May22 decreasing from $10750 to $9500, -$1250
Tier 3 / Jun22 decreasing from $9750 to $9000, -$750
Tier 4 / Jul22 decreasing from $9200 to $8750, -$450
Tier 5 / Aug22 decreasing from $8750 to $8600, -$150
Tier 6 / Sep22 decreasing from $8400 to $8300, -$100
Tier 7 / Oct22 unchanged at $8000

https://www.cmegroup.com/notices/clearing/2022/04/Chadv22-134.html

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 SMCJB 
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CRUDE OIL MARGINS EFFECTIVE 12TH APRIL

Maintenance margin as follows (Initial Margins, ie non-member rates will be 110% of these)
Tier 1 / May22 decreasing from $9500 to $8750, -$750
Tier 2 / Jun22 decreasing from $9000 to $8500, -$500
Tier 3 / Jul22 decreasing from $8750 to $8300, -$450
Tier 4 / Aug22 decreasing from $8600 to $8100, -$500
Tier 5 / Sep22 decreasing from $8300 to $7900, -$400
Tier 6 / Oct22 decreasing from $8000 to $7700, -$300
Tier 7 / Nov22 decreasing from $7700 to $7600, -$100
Tier 8 / Dec22 unchanged at $7500
...
Tier 20 / Dec23 unchanged at $5500
...
Tier 32 / Dec24 unchanged at $4350

https://www.cmegroup.com/notices/clearing/2022/04/Chadv22-142.html

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  #2568 (permalink)
 SMCJB 
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NPR: In an exception to the Clean Air Act, Biden will allow E15 gas to be sold this summer

https://www.npr.org/2022/04/12/1092222231/in-an-exception-to-the-clean-air-act-biden-will-allow-e15-gas-to-be-sold-this-su

So basically they will allow E15 (gasoline that is 15% ethanol) to be sold this summer. This is very interesting because much of the Ethanol comes from Corn, and because fertilizer prices are so high, farmers are switching from Corn to Soybeans. Wonder where this all leads....

USDA forecasts record soybean acreage

https://www.farmanddairy.com/news/usda-forecasts-record-soybean-acreage-in-ohio-and-across-us/710462.html

Ohio is among the states expecting to plant a record number of soybean acres, at 5.1 million acres, up by 4% from 2021, in line with the national expectations. Pennsylvania dropped by 3% in soybean acreage, to 560,000 acres.

Both states dropped in expected corn acreage, Ohio by 6% to 3.35 million acres, and Pennsylvania by 8% to 1.23 million acres.

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  #2569 (permalink)
 SMCJB 
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Interesting charts from John Kemps weekly digest




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  #2570 (permalink)
 SMCJB 
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First update in 2 months!

CRUDE OIL MARGINS EFFECTIVE 2ND JUNE

Maintenance margin as follows (Initial Margins, ie non-member rates will be 110% of these)
Tier 1 / Jul22 decreasing from $8750 to $8350, -$400
Tier 2 / Aug22 decreasing from $8500 to $8250, -$250
Tier 3 / Sep22 decreasing from $8300 to $8000, -$300
...
Tier 6 / Dec22 decreasing from $7700 to $7400, -$300
...
Tier 18 / Dec23 decreasing from $5750 to $5650, -$100

https://www.cmegroup.com/notices/clearing/2022/06/Chadv22-206.html

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