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The CL Crude-analysis Thread


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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

  #2521 (permalink)
 
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 SMCJB 
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OPEC and its Russia-led oil-producing allies agreed to raise daily production by 400,000 barrels each month through 2022. Crude currently down $3.75 today and is $8 below the early July highs, and back to prices not seen since early June.

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  #2522 (permalink)
 
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CRUDE OIL MARGINS UP $150-$700 EFFECTIVE 21ST JULY

Maintenance margin as follows (Initial Margins, ie non-member rates will be 110% of these)
Tier 1 / Sep21 increasing from $5300 to $5450, +$150 +2.8%
Tier 2 / Oct21 increasing from $5150 to $5350, +$200 +3.9%
Tier 3 / Nov21 increasing from $5000 to $5250, +$250 +5%
Tier 4 / Dec21 increasing from $4750 to $5150, +$400 +8.4%
Tier 5 / Jan22 increasing from $4500 to $5050, +$550 +12.2%
...
Tier 12 / Aug22 increasing from $3650 to $4350, +$700 +19.2%
...
Tier 16 / Dec22 increasing from $3275 to $3925, +$650 +19.8%
...
Tier 22 / Jun23 increasing from $2950 to $3550, +$600 +20.3%
...
Tier 28 / Dec23 increasing from $2625 to $3200, +$575 +21.9%
...
Tier 34 / Jun24 increasing from $2500 to $2900, +$400 +16%
...
Tier 40 / Dec24 increasing from $2500 to $2750, +$250 +10%

Rare to see the margins in the back increase so much more than the front. Wonder why second half 2022 and 2023 margins increased so much relative to everything else.

https://www.cmegroup.com/notices/clearing/2021/07/Chadv21-256.html

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  #2523 (permalink)
 
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ICE Futures Europe
21 July 2021
Circular 21/111
Paper on the Evolution of the Brent Complex

The purpose of this Circular is to notify members and their customers of the publication of a paper (see here) and the launch of a consultation on the evolution of the Brent Complex, which includes Dated Brent, Cash BFOE, and ICE Brent Crude Oil futures.

The paper, co-authored by S&P Global Platts (“Platts”) and ICE, which oversee, respectively, the Dated Brent physical benchmark price assessment and the ICE Brent Crude Oil futures contract, provides an overview of options for adding additional deliverable crude oil to the Brent complex and outlines a number of key issues and questions as it seeks market feedback

https://www.ice.com/publicdocs/circulars/21111.pdf

Attached Files
Elite Membership required to download: Brent_Benchmark_Complex_Evolving_Necessity.pdf
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  #2524 (permalink)
 
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 JFHughes 
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Does anyone know the name of the web site that the guy is a CL
analyst and tracks the tankers on the water?

I forgot the name and someone was asking me.

Thanks in advance

Joe

In alcohol's defense, I've done some pretty dumb shit while completely sober too.
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  #2525 (permalink)
 
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 SMCJB 
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JFHughes View Post
Does anyone know the name of the web site that the guy is a CL
analyst and tracks the tankers on the water?

I forgot the name and someone was asking me.

https://tankertrackers.com/

Really good info. Unfortunately its no longer free.

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  #2526 (permalink)
 
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CRUDE OIL MARGINS DOWN $150 EFFECTIVE 20TH AUGUST

Maintenance margin as follows (Initial Margins, ie non-member rates will be 110% of these)
Tier 1 / Oct21 decreasing from $5450 to $5300, -$150
Tier 2 / Nov21 decreasing from $5350 to $5200, -$150
Tier 3 / Dec21 decreasing from $5250 to $5100, -$150
Tier 4 / Jan22 decreasing from $5150 to $5000, -$150
...
Tier 40 / Jan25 decreasing from $2750 to $2600, -$150
...
Every month is reduced by $150.

Note: Tier 1 is currently Sep21, but Sep21 expires on the 20th, so margin assessed on the 20th for Tier 1 will be Oct21. In reality this means margin rates for Oct21 are only going down $50 not $150, because they are going up $100 as it becomes prompt!

https://www.cmegroup.com/notices/clearing/2021/08/Chadv21-287.html

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  #2527 (permalink)
dodec
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Can anyone write some thoughts or something why oil went up today ? I checked news - nothing fundamentally there, checked currencies - no clue there too, even checked some retail spots just in case people know something what I don't and obviously they just guessing so I was wondering what made it jump by so much so quickly after number of very bad news lately ? Was there some kind of magic report or someone said something and it got spread in bloomberg terminal?

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  #2528 (permalink)
 
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dodec View Post
Can anyone write some thoughts or something why oil went up today ? I checked news - nothing fundamentally there, checked currencies - no clue there too, even checked some retail spots just in case people know something what I don't and obviously they just guessing so I was wondering what made it jump by so much so quickly after number of very bad news lately ? Was there some kind of magic report or someone said something and it got spread in bloomberg terminal?

Not sure it's oil specific. US Stock Index's, US Dollar, Gold, Silver, Platinum, Copper, all having big up days, although maybe not as strong as oils 5%.

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  #2529 (permalink)
dodec
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SMCJB View Post
Not sure it's oil specific. US Stock Index's, US Dollar, Gold, Silver, Platinum, Copper, all having big up days, although maybe not as strong as oils 5%.

I found it what that was. The reason why it went up (and pretty much everything solid today) is market getting whispered to its ear that JPOW is staying for another 4 years

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  #2530 (permalink)
 
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dodec View Post
I found it what that was. The reason why it went up (and pretty much everything solid today) is market getting whispered to its ear that JPOW is staying for another 4 years

Sure, this was news late Friday. But you never *know* what it is. You can only see the flows. However, news is only the spark... you can't get +5% without some fuel, and I think the Thursday and Friday shorts who sold in the hole are a big reason for the rally. Said another way, if we were at fresh highs on Friday with exhausted buyers, do you think that same news would have driven the market up 5%? Not likely, IMO.

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