Saw that "Hermit Investors" (reclusive rich people) bought about half of the tanker armada oil headed for China as an investment and will put it in land based storage. Around 50 million barrels.

Also saw that the Saudi fleet moored in the US Gulf has started to unload at Huston.

Reading that US Refineries are still close to a 65% run rate which the pros say is as low as you can go without turning them off.

Not sure what it all means but it does not look like unexpected demand spike.

CL Entry Timing

I'm just curious as to the time of the day most of you are entering the market? It seems to me that you have to enter CL either late at night or early in the morning to get a decent price. Most of the major trending seems to happen outside regular trading hours. I just find it frustrating to see that every morning I should have bought in at say 3:00-5:00 AM and that the major move of the "day" has already happened. Is staying up all night or automating the entry the best solution?

StatGuy 

CL Entry Timing I'm just curious as to the time of the day most of you are entering the market? It seems to me that you have to enter CL either late at night or early in the morning to get a decent price. Most of the major trending seems to happen outside regular trading hours. I just find it frustrating to see that every morning I should have bought in at say 3:00-5:00 AM and that the major move of the "day" has already happened. Is staying up all night or automating the entry the best solution?

3am Central is 9am in London! London truely is the global center for oil trading so that may be why!

StatGuy 

CL Entry Timing I'm just curious as to the time of the day most of you are entering the market? It seems to me that you have to enter CL either late at night or early in the morning to get a decent price. Most of the major trending seems to happen outside regular trading hours. I just find it frustrating to see that every morning I should have bought in at say 3:00-5:00 AM and that the major move of the "day" has already happened. Is staying up all night or automating the entry the best solution?

Will just jump in and say that it's that way for many markets. A "buy the open, sell the close" strategy in SPX is negative over the past 25+ years (has been positive this year) but many multiples higher with pure buy and hold. Liquid markets are used to conduct business, build positions, etc. -- ultimately resulting in longer term players winning as they hold for weeks/months, but shorter term players being chopped up, as they are usually flat by the close of the most liquid hours.

It is not altogether different from asian and european markets, I'd imagine, though I have not confirmed this with evidence. Asian markets tend to move quite freely during the european and US session. Liquidity slows markets down, and your liquid hours are the cash hours, so it's not too surprising.

I don't know if this applies to crude, but wanted to mention this as it's a common theme.

Baker Hughes Rig Count Down 7 to 199

13th consecutive weekly drop in rigs

JULY CRUDE OIL MARGINS DOWN $1200 EFFECTIVE MONDAY 22ND JUNE

Maintenance margin as follows (Initial Margins, ie non-member rates will be 110% of these)
Tier 1 / Jul20 decreasing from 9000 to 7800, -1200
Tier 2 / Aug20 decreasing from 8150 to 7200, -950
Tier 3 / Sep20 decreasing from 7050 to 6400, -650
Tiers 4 thru 21 also lowered.

https://www.cmegroup.com/notices/clearing/2020/06/Chadv20-248.html



Baker Hughes Rig Count Down 10 to 189

14th consecutive weekly drop in rigs

Baker Hughes Rig Count Down 1 to 188

15th consecutive weekly drop in rigs



Reuters :- Oil pricing agencies Platts, Argus launch new U.S. crude benchmarks

https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-oil-prices/rpt-oil-pricing-agencies-platts-argus-launch-new-us-crude-benchmarks-idUSL1N2E22GB



ICE :- What are the differences between ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI futures?

https://www.ice.com/insights/market-pulse/what-are-the-differences-between-ice-brent-and-nymex-wti-futures

AUGUST CRUDE OIL MARGINS DOWN $1000 EFFECTIVE TUESDAY 7TH JULY

Maintenance margin as follows (Initial Margins, ie non-member rates will be 110% of these)
Tier 1 / Aug20 decreasing from 7800 to 6800, -1000
Tier 2 / Sep20 decreasing from 7200 to 6300, -900
Tier 3 / Oct20 decreasing from 6400 to 5700, -650
Tiers 4 thru 127 also lowered.

https://www.cmegroup.com/notices/clearing/2020/07/Chadv20-261.html



Baker Hughes Rig Count Down 3 to 185

16th consecutive weekly drop in rigs. Lowest level since 2009, approaching 2005 lows.

I know this has nothing to do with this thread, but there's no obvious home for it, and since I just did this analysis with somebody I thought I would at least share it. If nothing else it shows how much cheaper it gets to trade when you trade a lot of volume ~ and hence how much an advantage larger traders have. Obviously nobody starts out by trading 10000 lots per month but if your trading spreads and/or Butterfly's rather than outrights your volumes could get a lot higher, without necessarily incurring a lot more risk. This analysis is obviously very dependent upon using TT, which is expensive, but if this analysis is relevant to you, you are not trading these volumes on Tradestation!

Trading cost per lot with Trading Technologies Pro Software, with and without a NYMEX seat.

Assumptions :-
NYMEX seat costs $635/month and is $1.40 without seat and $0.70 with seat. The $635 equates to $500 for seat & $135 for higher data fees as you are now a Pro.
TT Pro Transaction Model is $400/month plus $200/month MAPP fee, with 300 lots free and then $0.30 per lot capped at $1800 (plus $200 MAPP)
TT Pro Subscription is $1400/month plus $200 MAPP fee
Commission rates per Advantage Futures Online Calculator

Obviously...
breakeven on NYMEX Seat is $635/70c = 900 lots/month
breakeven on TT Pro Subscription vs Transaction Model is $1000/30c - 300 = 3633 lots/month

SMCJB 

I know this has nothing to do with this thread, but there's no obvious home for it, and since I just did this analysis with somebody I thought I would at least share it. If nothing else it shows how much cheaper it gets to trade when you trade a lot of volume ~ and hence how much an advantage larger traders have. Obviously nobody starts out by trading 10000 lots per month but if your trading spreads and/or Butterfly's rather than outrights your volumes could get a lot higher, without necessarily incurring a lot more risk. This analysis is obviously very dependent upon using TT, which is expensive, but if this analysis is relevant to you, you are not trading these volumes on Tradestation! Trading cost per lot with Trading Technologies Pro Software, with and without a NYMEX seat. Assumptions :- NYMEX seat costs $635/month and is $1.40 without seat and $0.70 with seat. The $635 equates to $500 for seat & $135 for higher data fees as you are now a Pro. TT Pro Transaction Model is $400/month plus $200/month MAPP fee, with 300 lots free and then $0.30 per lot capped at $1800 (plus $200 MAPP) TT Pro Subscription is $1400/month plus $200 MAPP fee Commission rates per Advantage Futures Online Calculator Obviously... breakeven on NYMEX Seat is $635/70c = 900 lots/month breakeven on TT Pro Subscription vs Transaction Model is $1000/30c - 300 = 3633 lots/month

Great post, and this definitely deserves it's own thread! I wish more people understood the value of a seat. Aside from the straight forward expenses, having a seat also opens up significantly more edges that would be impossible to capture without the per contract savings of a seat. Most people I've talked to seem to think a seat is some sort of reward for good trading, and something to aspire to, rather than being an absolute necessity without which trading wouldn't be feasible.