The CL Crude-analysis Thread
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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

  #2291 (permalink)
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SMCJB View Post
If you believe Raoul Pal this is just the beginning of the Oil rout and is all tied into the bigger Global Macro picture. Already experiencing a global slowdown, and about to have a global recession. Now add in a massive US-China trade war and China devaluing their currency* - which effects everybody. The US already has a massive pension crisis around the corner, but what happens if we do have a sell off and the baby boomers start panic selling? There's a lot more on Real Vision TV but he's Long Bonds (well actually Eurodollars (which is USD LIBOR not EUR:USD), Long Gold, Long Bitcoin, Short Equities, Short Crude and some other (non-precious metal) commodities. So far he's been very right on the Eurodollars** - which is his biggest recommendation - and the Gold and Bitcoin. In contrast historically some of his crude oil calls have been pretty poor I believe.

Long Raoul twitter thread with lots of charts. Warning: Doom & Gloom the world is coming to an end.
https://threader.app/thread/1159076338126532610

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  #2292 (permalink)
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Interesting crude curve shape currently.

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Which got me thinking. Have I ever seen a U shape that steep before. Just eyeballing that chart you can see that both Z9 and Z4 are about $3 above Z1. So despite the Z9-Z4 spread being approximately flat, the Z9-Z1-Z4 Butterfly is approximately $6!

So to keep things symmetrical I want to look at Z9-Z1-Z3 which is obviously not quite as exaggerated. Also I want to look at 'constant maturity'. So since Z9 is currently the 4th contract I am going to look at CL04-CL28-CL52 and this is what we get.

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So yes, in the last 5 years, this is about as U'y as the curve has ever been!

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  #2293 (permalink)
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Sorry 2nd post.
Right after I posted that, I thought, doesn't the Eurodollar (ie 90 day LIBOR) curve have the same shape.

Obviously axis are scaled but interesting none the less.

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For those that don't know Eurodollar Futures prices are (100 minus the 90 day LIBOR rate on the day of expiry) so a price of 98 represents an interest rate of 2%

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  #2294 (permalink)
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Found that putting on the Z19Z21z23 fly better using 12 month calendars rather than outrights (of course cost is commissions)


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  #2295 (permalink)
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jokertrader View Post
putting on the Z19Z21z23 fly

You did that? While it definitely looks out of whack, Z9's a little close to expiry for my liking.

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In Sim was more testing TT


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$DWT getting lots of attention today and also yesterday. Seems CL is meeting resistance at this level.

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Here we are, 10 days later, and all the fears have gone.... hmmm.... in fact prices in 2020 and 2021 are potentially lower than before the shock

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SMCJB View Post
Here we are, 10 days later, and all the fears have gone.... hmmm.... in fact prices in 2020 and 2021 are potentially lower than before the shock

Yes sir

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I've been waiting for the gap fill

Thank you and have an outstanding day

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