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The CL Crude-analysis Thread


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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

  #2281 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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Crude Oil Margins dropping (slightly) effective today.
Member Margin for Tier 1, Jun'19, dropping $250 from $3400 to $3150.
Non-member rates will be 110% of that

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  #2282 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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CME Research:- Energy Options Skews: Beyond Supply Shocks

https://www.cmegroup.com/education/featured-reports/energy-options-skews-beyond-supply-shocks.html

... it turns out that the degree of skewness in the options markets has often been a good contrary indicator of where prices are heading, especially for the product markets...

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  #2283 (permalink)
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SMCJB View Post
Crude Oil Margins dropping (slightly) effective today.
Member Margin for Tier 1, Jun'19, dropping $250 from $3400 to $3150.
Non-member rates will be 110% of that

Five weeks later and this is being reversed. Effective COB Today/12th member Margin for Tier 1, Jul'19, increasing $300 from $3150 to $3450.
Non-member rates will be 110% of that

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  #2284 (permalink)
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SMCJB View Post
Effective COB Today/12th member Margin for Tier 1, Jul'19, increasing $300 from $3150 to $3450.
Non-member rates will be 110% of that

Effective June 21st Member Margin for Tier 1, Aug'19, will be $3650.
This is a $200 increasing from $3450 for Tier1 but a $250 increase for August as it moves from Tier 2 to Tier 1
All other Tiers increased by $200 as well.
Non-member rates will be 110% of that

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  #2285 (permalink)
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Interesting perspective...


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  #2286 (permalink)
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UWT call?

Seems like a good place to start a small Long position in Crude Oil. $UWT stock is getting lots of attention today.

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  #2287 (permalink)
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I don't have any reason to buy until the 50 evens on the U contract...

http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?Image=1565191988850.png

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  #2288 (permalink)
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If you believe Raoul Pal this is just the beginning of the Oil rout and is all tied into the bigger Global Macro picture. Already experiencing a global slowdown, and about to have a global recession. Now add in a massive US-China trade war and China devaluing their currency* - which effects everybody. The US already has a massive pension crisis around the corner, but what happens if we do have a sell off and the baby boomers start panic selling? There's a lot more on Real Vision TV but he's Long Bonds (well actually Eurodollars (which is USD LIBOR not EUR:USD), Long Gold, Long Bitcoin, Short Equities, Short Crude and some other (non-precious metal) commodities. So far he's been very right on the Eurodollars** - which is his biggest recommendation - and the Gold and Bitcoin. In contrast historically some of his crude oil calls have been pretty poor I believe.

*Or not supporting it, which has the same result
** Dec19 Eurodollars (globex GEZ9 or many other vendors EDZ9) had lows on 7/31 of 97.79 and today is 98.20. So in 6 trading days the market thinks Interest Rates are going to be cut by 50 points MORE than they did 6 days ago!

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  #2289 (permalink)
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ElChacal View Post
Seems like a good place to start a small Long position in Crude Oil. $UWT stock is getting lots of attention today.

It may well be a big dump. Platform shows $202MM traded today...

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  #2290 (permalink)
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ElChacal View Post
Seems like a good place to start a small Long position in Crude Oil. $UWT stock is getting lots of attention today.

Looking green...

(As a "correlated" bias, ^TNX seems to be following...)

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