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Question on stop Losses (scalping)


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Question on stop Losses (scalping)

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  #1 (permalink)
 donovanshane 
Chattanooga, TN/USA
 
 
Posts: 26 since Jan 2013

I scalp the /es. When I say scalp I mean I buy a 2 lot, and look for a 1 tick move. This is $25 profit. I do this.....a lot during the day. 50+ trades. My winning trades hover between 75-80%. What I have noticed in my journal is if I could manage my stop losses better I would not be doing just good, but great (yeah, no brainier right?). Here's the issue. I do not have a set stop loss. Scalping is more of a feel for me. If I set my stop loss at 2 ticks, my winning % would be a lot lower. It routinely goes against me a tick or two, just to instantly recover and hit my 1 tick profit. I do not know if this is institutions, HFT's or just great freaking traders taking out peoples stops before it takes off. But either way a SET 2 tick stop loss would take a lot of my winners away. That being said,at least one time a day I have that trade that moves against me 2 ticks, I m watching it seeing if its going to go back up or if I need to get out there....when it tanks 2-5 more ticks on me and I have my biggest loss of the day. If I trade 50 times, my percentage is 40 winners and 10 loosers. All 1-2 ticks. But 90% of my losses come in 1 or 2 trades. Any thoughts....or just practice makes perfect? Thanks guys.


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  #3 (permalink)
 tturner86 
Portland, Oregon
 
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donovanshane View Post
I scalp the /es. When I say scalp I mean I buy a 2 lot, and look for a 1 tick move. This is $25 profit. I do this.....a lot during the day. 50+ trades. My winning trades hover between 75-80%. What I have noticed in my journal is if I could manage my stop losses better I would not be doing just good, but great (yeah, no brainier right?). Here's the issue. I do not have a set stop loss. Scalping is more of a feel for me. If I set my stop loss at 2 ticks, my winning % would be a lot lower. It routinely goes against me a tick or two, just to instantly recover and hit my 1 tick profit. I do not know if this is institutions, HFT's or just great freaking traders taking out peoples stops before it takes off. But either way a SET 2 tick stop loss would take a lot of my winners away. That being said,at least one time a day I have that trade that moves against me 2 ticks, I m watching it seeing if its going to go back up or if I need to get out there....when it tanks 2-5 more ticks on me and I have my biggest loss of the day. If I trade 50 times, my percentage is 40 winners and 10 loosers. All 1-2 ticks. But 90% of my losses come in 1 or 2 trades. Any thoughts....or just practice makes perfect? Thanks guys.

Are you doing this live or in sim?

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  #4 (permalink)
 donovanshane 
Chattanooga, TN/USA
 
 
Posts: 26 since Jan 2013

Live

 
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  #5 (permalink)
 kevinkdog   is a Vendor
 
 
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donovanshane View Post
I scalp the /es. When I say scalp I mean I buy a 2 lot, and look for a 1 tick move. This is $25 profit. I do this.....a lot during the day. 50+ trades. My winning trades hover between 75-80%. What I have noticed in my journal is if I could manage my stop losses better I would not be doing just good, but great (yeah, no brainier right?). Here's the issue. I do not have a set stop loss. Scalping is more of a feel for me. If I set my stop loss at 2 ticks, my winning % would be a lot lower. It routinely goes against me a tick or two, just to instantly recover and hit my 1 tick profit. I do not know if this is institutions, HFT's or just great freaking traders taking out peoples stops before it takes off. But either way a SET 2 tick stop loss would take a lot of my winners away. That being said,at least one time a day I have that trade that moves against me 2 ticks, I m watching it seeing if its going to go back up or if I need to get out there....when it tanks 2-5 more ticks on me and I have my biggest loss of the day. If I trade 50 times, my percentage is 40 winners and 10 loosers. All 1-2 ticks. But 90% of my losses come in 1 or 2 trades. Any thoughts....or just practice makes perfect? Thanks guys.

If your average win is 1 tick, and your average loss is 2 ticks, with an 80% win rate, after commission I'm figuring you average $1 per contract per trade net. With a 2 lot, that is $100 per day. Am I close?

Or am I making some bad assumptions (like I assumed $4 RT commission, maybe you have an exchange seat and have lower commissions)??

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  #6 (permalink)
 UTA990 
chicago
 
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there is an old saying from the floor....you cant eat like a bird and poop like an elephant. so if you are taking 1-2 ticks out of the market you cant lose 5 ticks. make your stop 2-3 ticks when your "feel" is in sync with the market and try to hang on a little longer to winners to tip the math back in your favor. just my 2 cents

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  #7 (permalink)
 donovanshane 
Chattanooga, TN/USA
 
 
Posts: 26 since Jan 2013


kevinkdog View Post
If your average win is 1 tick, and your average loss is 2 ticks, with an 80% win rate, after commission I'm figuring you average $1 per contract per trade net. With a 2 lot, that is $100 per day. Am I close?

Or am I making some bad assumptions (like I assumed $4 RT commission, maybe you have an exchange seat and have lower commissions)??

A bit more. Per this thread, its not a set 2 tick loss. Its also not a set 1 tick win. Yes....most of my wins and losses are all 1 tick. But I do have the occasional 2 tick win/loss. I'm averaging $200-$250 per day gross. Commissions are pretty average at $3.50 per round trip. If I could stop my biggest loss of the day everyday, I would really be doing well. That is what I am trying to figure out.

 
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  #8 (permalink)
 kevinkdog   is a Vendor
 
 
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donovanshane View Post
A bit more. Per this thread, its not a set 2 tick loss. Its also not a set 1 tick win. Yes....most of my wins and losses are all 1 tick. But I do have the occasional 2 tick win/loss. I'm averaging $200-$250 per day gross. Commissions are pretty average at $3.50 per round trip. If I could stop my biggest loss of the day everyday, I would really be doing well. That is what I am trying to figure out.

What about setting a worst case stop to be about 4 ticks?

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  #9 (permalink)
 Itchymoku 
Philadelphia
 
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donovanshane View Post
A bit more. Per this thread, its not a set 2 tick loss. Its also not a set 1 tick win. Yes....most of my wins and losses are all 1 tick. But I do have the occasional 2 tick win/loss. I'm averaging $200-$250 per day gross. Commissions are pretty average at $3.50 per round trip. If I could stop my biggest loss of the day everyday, I would really be doing well. That is what I am trying to figure out.

You said 4.15 per round trip.

which is it?

wait aren't you the same guy who made this thread ?

Now you're live trading 50 times a day netting $200-$250?



Good luck, I hope you got my pm

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  #10 (permalink)
EnsoTrader
Durham, NC
 
 
Posts: 48 since Oct 2014
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Sounds like you more data regarding MAE (Max adverse excursion).

You say 2 ticks against generally end up winners.
How many that hit 3 ticks turn and win? 4 ticks? etc.
Once you can chart out the win/loss rate based on ticks against, then you can determining a more appropriate hard stop level.

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  #11 (permalink)
 Itchymoku 
Philadelphia
 
Experience: None
Platform: corded black telephone
Trading: ticker tape
 
Posts: 2,893 since Apr 2012
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I don't understand your question, you're basically stating that you want help with a stop loss on a negative expectancy where you don't have big losers. That's part of the sacrifice.

Why don't you scalp ZB where each tick is $31 and so your commission isn't $4.15 for a $12.5 es tick but $4.15 for a $31 dollar tick. That would be like having a hypothetical equivalent $1.7 round trip commission for ES lol. Only problem is that ZB moves a lot slower than ES.

If you want I can help you out with your MAE stop loss if you respond to my pm.

R.I.P. Joseph Bach (Itchymoku), 1987-2018.
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  #12 (permalink)
 donovanshane 
Chattanooga, TN/USA
 
 
Posts: 26 since Jan 2013


Itchymoku View Post
You said 4.15 per round trip.

which is it?

wait aren't you the same guy who made this thread ?

Now you're live trading 50 times a day netting $200-$250?



Good luck, I hope you got my pm

Yep. I've been live for a few weeks now trading the /es. Things change. (Like today, I used tick charts for the first time and I've completed 36 trades, all winners (just 1 tick though), so expect a post on that with ?'s. This is my current profit margin. Second, AMP futures matched Ninja Traders commissions. Lastly....this is not a brag post. I just answered questions that were asked. If your a loosing trader (obviously you are), worry about your margins....not mine. As my career advances things will change a lot. This is a great forum, please don't ruin it by questioning people you do not knows integrity. If you spent half as much time on your trading journal as you do looking up and comparing old posts, you might have a career as a trader as opposed t sending private messages and offering to fund them if they can prove it. Make your own money. And for just a second, consider that my numbers are accurate (and they are not that great honestly, these are average numbers in most peoples opinions. ), a post like this is how you open up a potential offer? Really. No thank you.

 
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  #13 (permalink)
 donovanshane 
Chattanooga, TN/USA
 
 
Posts: 26 since Jan 2013


UTA990 View Post
there is an old saying from the floor....you cant eat like a bird and poop like an elephant. so if you are taking 1-2 ticks out of the market you cant lose 5 ticks. make your stop 2-3 ticks when your "feel" is in sync with the market and try to hang on a little longer to winners to tip the math back in your favor. just my 2 cents

Thank you, that helped today. One thing about my feel....I'm still new to the Futures realm. I worry about "feeling" the market. I see almost everyone uses indicators (but they are looking for more than 1 tick though). When I use to trade options , my rules were iron clad. Get in here, out there. Are there a lot of traders that scalp the way I do? By watching and feeling the market? Thanks for your input.

 
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  #14 (permalink)
 donovanshane 
Chattanooga, TN/USA
 
 
Posts: 26 since Jan 2013


kevinkdog View Post
What about setting a worst case stop to be about 4 ticks?

I combined your advise with another guys on this thread. And put my stop loss at 3 Ticks. That being said I used a TICK chart today for the first time, and for a trader like me taking 1 tick here and there....combined with the advice I received from you and the other guy, it has really worked out. Today anyway. Lets see if it has some longevity. Thanks again!

 
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  #15 (permalink)
 montanajtt 
Como, Italy
 
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Trading: ES
 
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donovanshane View Post
I combined your advise with another guys on this thread. And put my stop loss at 3 Ticks. That being said I used a TICK chart today for the first time, and for a trader like me taking 1 tick here and there....combined with the advice I received from you and the other guy, it has really worked out. Today anyway. Lets see if it has some longevity. Thanks again!

Hi, why don't you try to code your strategy and backtest it on a 5/10 years historical? It would give you a more accurate info about what stop to use and profit target. Try to code what you look when you enter the trade and how you manage your position, it can help a lot not to waste money and time on something that eventually you may find can't work.

 
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  #16 (permalink)
 Itchymoku 
Philadelphia
 
Experience: None
Platform: corded black telephone
Trading: ticker tape
 
Posts: 2,893 since Apr 2012
Thanks: 1,683 given, 3,667 received


donovanshane View Post
Yep. I've been live for a few weeks now trading the /es. Things change. (Like today, I used tick charts for the first time and I've completed 36 trades, all winners (just 1 tick though), so expect a post on that with ?'s. This is my current profit margin. Second, AMP futures matched Ninja Traders commissions. Lastly....this is not a brag post. I just answered questions that were asked. If your a loosing trader (obviously you are), worry about your margins....not mine. As my career advances things will change a lot. This is a great forum, please don't ruin it by questioning people you do not knows integrity. If you spent half as much time on your trading journal as you do looking up and comparing old posts, you might have a career as a trader as opposed t sending private messages and offering to fund them if they can prove it. Make your own money. And for just a second, consider that my numbers are accurate (and they are not that great honestly, these are average numbers in most peoples opinions. ), a post like this is how you open up a potential offer? Really. No thank you.

Honestly this is the most ridiculous thread I've ever read on futures.io (formerly BMT), It almost seems made up. The offer to fund you was partly a joke because you obviously can't prove that you aren't lying. I know for a fact you can't keep this system up, the math doesn't add up. If It were legal on here I'd bet $10,000 that you'll blow up in a month at the same rate. You're blatantly ignoring some of the fundamental lessons here about trading. You can't even appreciate my advice about zb either wow. Do you understand how many people have tried to attempt the exact same thing you are and they either leave and never come back or continue to change chart types etc.?

If you knew what you were doing consistently you wouldn't be asking such obvious questions like "where do I place my stop loss with a 1 tick target so I don't get big losers?" or "how do I avoid paying large sums with commission if I have 1 tick targets?" . You know nothing about my trading and I'm not interested in margins. Looking up your previous posts takes a few seconds with a couple clicks. I don't even understand why you're talking about my journal when you don't even have one on here? Why don't you post some of your charts on here putting some effort into your "career" like the rest of us do.

I apologize for coming off sarcastic at first, but you've been here almost two years and the answer to your questions are glaring out in just about every journal and advice given here. It just takes a little research.

R.I.P. Joseph Bach (Itchymoku), 1987-2018.
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