So I'm just looking over the price chart for the Sept-14 Wheat contract...
If one to go short in early May and hold the position until August, we are looking at 150 point gain. That's close 8k on a single contract. Wheat doesn't seem to be too volatile. I know it's easy in retrospect - but if the entry point is decent, at most you'd need to tolerate 2-3k in stress, on 1 contract. To me, this seems like easy money, what am I missing?
Corn also seems to follow the same general trend.
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Don't look at it in Hindsight, look in May with none of the data since then. What kind of signal would have told you to sell then and hold? What about a month or so later when it pulls back? What would have told you to hold?
Hindsight everything is perfect, but the hard right edge is where you trade.
If I was to seasonally trade wheat, I wouldn't bother looking at technicals. Starting early May, the instrument establishes a down trend. This fundamental trend is repeated yearly (given there's no major droughts/shortages predicted for summer).
Edit: I'm not suggesting completely abandoning the technical aspect. Just saying that it's not as important because the seasonal factor is involved. Technicals are important for picking a good entry position.
Actually @tturner86 is being very constructive. You said in your original post "this seems like easy money." The fact is it wasn't easy money at the time. That I believe is tturner's point.
To reiterate you are missing the fact you are looking at something in hindsight. Remember the key about any market and trading is "Past Performance is not indicative of future results."
All I have asked is how you would have known to take the trade and how you would managed the trade over time to get a profit.
I could look at a chart of TSLA (Tesla) today and say it was a good idea to buy in 2012. But what were the signals in 2012 like?
It seems like easy money because it is looked at in hindsight.
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