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Reminiscences of a Bean Trader or Why These Ain't Yo Daddy's Beans No-Mo


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Reminiscences of a Bean Trader or Why These Ain't Yo Daddy's Beans No-Mo

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  #21 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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YertleTurtle View Post
I've recently started sim day trading ZS. I wonder if you could point me to a news source for upcoming releases that one should be aware of when daytrading?

Thanks in advance.

Agricultural Markets, Market Trends, Market Analysis | Agriculture.com

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  #22 (permalink)
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I am aware of 3 different news releases that will effect prices during the day session. Prospective Plantings in March, Crop Production Report and the Grain Stocks Report.

As a day trader I don't care what the reports state - I just want to avoid trading during their release. Are there other reports I should have on my radar?

Thanks again.

And the day came when the risk to remain tight in a bud was more painful than the risk it took to blossom

- Anais Nin
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YertleTurtle View Post
I am aware of 3 different news releases that will effect prices during the day session. Prospective Plantings in March, Crop Production Report and the Grain Stocks Report.

As a day trader I don't care what the reports state - I just want to avoid trading during their release. Are there other reports I should have on my radar?

Thanks again.

just the weather report...

this guy is a good read in the a.m. for an insight into the context and sentiment of the market, and a heads up on upcoming news/ data that may be pertinent

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tigertrader View Post
just the weather report...

this guy is a good read in the a.m. for an insight into the context and sentiment of the market, and a heads up on upcoming news/ data that may be pertinent

Morning Market Review by Bryce Knorr - Farm Futures

Thanks again. When you roll forward contracts in ZS do you skip June and August and go directly to November?

And the day came when the risk to remain tight in a bud was more painful than the risk it took to blossom

- Anais Nin
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YertleTurtle View Post
Thanks again. When you roll forward contracts in ZS do you skip June and August and go directly to November?

follow the volume...



however, there is often a great deal of equanimity in participation between the front month and new crop, the later one gets in the season i.e., planting, beans in the ground, ( weather market/ no weather market), crop yield uncertainty, harvest time; all depending on the context of the market and hedging needs.

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i would imagine that i'm not the first person to identify the classic diamond pattern on the daily soybean chart. it is certainly in compliance with traditional edwards and magee-type ta that had its origins when harry s. truman was president, the spx was trading at ~150.00, and the first monkey astronaut was launched into space. the break above resistance occurred two days ago and continued yesterday, and according to ta rules, signals a move to much higher levels. the market may indeed trade substantially higher, but not because of a perceived random formation. but, because of the true drivers of price and value, which is inevitably the imbalance between supply and demand. of course, if the market does indeed trade higher, the ta advocates will be screaming bull diamond formation. naturally, there is a very short list of possible outcomes; which begins with higher and ends with lower, so the ta advocates always stand a 50/50 chance at being right. however, an equal probability of success does not really cut it, when it comes to achieving consistent profitability in trading. and, the longer-term performance of a trading methodology based on random formations, such as the majority of those found in classical chart analysis, is flat for any sufficiently large risk/reward sample; and when trading friction is introduced, it becomes negative. however, the overwhelming majority of retail traders still use classical chart analysis to make trading decisions, and the reasons are; this is what they are taught by other naive retail traders, this is what they read in books targeted at retail traders, and this is the only analysis they can do inexpensively, and with little work, thought or effort.




I tend to agree with your comments re TA, the majority of people I've spoken to on forums find it unbelievable that I don't use TA/Charting in my trading. I only became successful as a trader when I threw away all the technical stuff and started to trade the market action as it unfolded.
Cheers John

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January 16, 2015


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