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The Natural Gas Roller Coaster. Jan 16th 14.2% tradeable range
Watching it closely the past few days made me think the same thing. It is moving a lot like CL back in its heyday. A strong move one way and another strong move retracing it.
I agree on the speed as well, and since I'm quite new to NG, I'll need to watch it's behavior more closely and act carefully.
Currently the biggest challenge for the strategy is to determine where to place a reasonable stop for a given timeframe...that's still quite an issue in regards to maintain a decent R/R ratio.
Edit:
FWIW, just to give an impression of my charts...looks like NG respects VWAP, ADR and ADN most of the times.
The green and red stripes are showing the potential entry points of the automated strategy, but as I already mentioned before, I'll have to do some additional adjustments before I go live.
"If you don't design your own life plan, chances are you'll fall into someone else's plan. And guess what they have planned for you? Not much." - Jim Rohn
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,048 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,384
Thanks Received: 10,206
I would recommend that you not consider the last two weeks of NG price action as 'normal'. I think you will find a very very different market in 8 days time once March expires.
@SMCJB Seems the last 8 weeks has been beyond normal. My strat has done two times an entire normal years profit in 8 weeks. Question for me is this all related to cold or is there a structural change happening in the market? I don't show at least in my backtests anything close to this happening in previous winters. I kind of expect it to calm down but would be very happy if it did not.
"The day I became a winning trader was the day it became boring. Daily losses no longer bother me and daily wins no longer excited me. Took years of pain and busting a few accounts before finally got my mind right. I survived the darkness within and now just chillax and let my black box do the work."
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,048 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,384
Thanks Received: 10,206
Last 4 weeks since we got close to Feb expiry have been the really crazy days.
Congratz, pretty impressive. last 4 days I'm up what i normally make in a month, not nearly as good but still pretty nice.
It's weather and storage related. Once April becomes prompt things will change. April may (and probably will) be more volatile than normal, but nothing like what Feb & March have been.
I think you'll find that the last time this happened the market wasn't as electronic as it is now, so it was a different market.
Question -- are you using Shark Indicators' new Falcon? I didn't know that was out yet. I keep hearing about it, but am not sure exactly what that is. Or is this the name you gave your strategy.
No, actually it's still the SI Raven Autotrader. I've heard about their new Falcon several times as well, but as far as I know there's no update regarding the release date...
In my chart the Falcon Swing actually is the name of a system / method which is part of the Diversified Trading System (DTS) by Indicator Warehouse. The other chart with the 20 tick Renko bars shows the Eagle Trend Trader.
"If you don't design your own life plan, chances are you'll fall into someone else's plan. And guess what they have planned for you? Not much." - Jim Rohn
2 months in a row the front month NG contract was up on the 4th last trading day and down on the 3rd last trading day (today). It was also up big on last trading day last month. But i suspect this might not happen next month.
WOW. What a ride. I took a pretty big loss early on selling 6.9 and 7.4 calls. I'm very glad I got out when I did, but still lost $15k. That trade would have been underwater by several 10s of thousands up until a few days ago.
I got back in on 2/4, 2/10 and 2/18 by selling 11s, 10s and 9s. Took some heat, but managed to hold on. Made back a whopping $4300.
I think I'm going to follow Kevinkdog's plan to avoid NGH5 next year and any NGH# after that!
Thanks to those who gave me their advice during the process.
