NexusFi: Find Your Edge


Home Menu

 





The Natural Gas Roller Coaster. Jan 16th 14.2% tradeable range


Discussion in Commodities

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one SMCJB with 26 posts (14 thanks)
    2. looks_two ron99 with 22 posts (5 thanks)
    3. looks_3 CafeGrande with 13 posts (6 thanks)
    4. looks_4 Alphachase with 10 posts (1 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one liquidcci with 0.7 thanks per post
    2. looks_two SMCJB with 0.5 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 CafeGrande with 0.5 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 ron99 with 0.2 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 23,170 views
    2. thumb_up 36 thanks given
    3. group 18 followers
    1. forum 95 posts
    2. attach_file 20 attachments




 
Search this Thread

The Natural Gas Roller Coaster. Jan 16th 14.2% tradeable range

  #1 (permalink)
 
SMCJB's Avatar
 SMCJB 
Houston TX
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TT and Stellar
Broker: Advantage Futures
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,041 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,375
Thanks Received: 10,192

If you were perfect you could have made these 6 (or 7 depending how you count) trades today in Natural Gas and made 14.2% unlevered or 243% of the required overnight margin rate!

Buy the close on Wednesday 15th @ 4325
Sell & REVERSE Thursday 16th 9am @ 4490
Buy & REVERSE Thursday 16th 1030am @ 4390
Sell & REVERSE Thursday 16th 12pm @ 4485
Buy & REVERSE Thursday 16th 115pm @ 4345
Sell & REVERSE Thursday 16th 145pm @ 4415
Buy before Globex closes Thursday 16th 515pm @ 4370

Trade 1 Buy 4325 Sell 4490, Profit +165 or 3.8%
Trade 2 Sell 4490 Buy 4390, Profit +100 or 2.2%
Trade 3 Buy 4390 Sell 4485, Profit +95 or 2.2%
Trade 4 Sell 4485 Buy 4345, Profit +140 or 3.1%
Trade 5 Buy 4345 Sell 4415, Profit +70 or 1.6%
Trade 6 Sell 4415 Buy 4370, Profit +45 or 1.0%
Total Profit +615 or $0.615/MMBtu = $6150 per contract = 14.2%


Started this thread Reply With Quote

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on NexusFi?
Are there any eval firms that allow you to sink to your …
Traders Hideout
NexusFi Journal Challenge - April 2024
Feedback and Announcements
The space time continuum and the dynamics of a financial …
Emini and Emicro Index
Better Renko Gaps
The Elite Circle
Exit Strategy
NinjaTrader
 
  #3 (permalink)
CafeGrande
St Paul, MN, USA
 
Posts: 200 since Jan 2014
Thanks Given: 131
Thanks Received: 207


Nice chart, esp. the volume-by-price histogram or whatever it's called. Has that feature existed in IB for a long time or is it something new?

Reply With Quote
  #4 (permalink)
 
SMCJB's Avatar
 SMCJB 
Houston TX
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TT and Stellar
Broker: Advantage Futures
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,041 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,375
Thanks Received: 10,192

As long as I can remember

Started this thread Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #5 (permalink)
 crito 
amsterdam
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: IB & TS
Trading: short fut. opt., fut. spreads, div. stocks
Posts: 57 since Feb 2012
Thanks Given: 3
Thanks Received: 27


CafeGrande View Post
Nice chart, esp. the volume-by-price histogram or whatever it's called. Has that feature existed in IB for a long time or is it something new?

As far as i know, unfortunately, it only works for charts < 2days, not monthly or year charts.
at least i can't turn on the volume histogram when i take a wider range.


@SMCJB care to share your thought who was selling (1 big party?/ commercial) and who was buying (speculators)?


below the updated NG inventory chart, light green is 2014
so far nothing special, will get interesting if we get below 1000bcf


Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #6 (permalink)
 ron99 
Cleveland, OH
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: QST
Broker: QST, DeCarley Trading, Gain
Trading: Options on Futures
Posts: 3,081 since Jul 2011
Thanks Given: 980
Thanks Received: 5,785

Feb NG went up 8 cents in 30 minutes just now (1:40-2:10 ET) with heavy vol. Has just dropped 5 cents of that increase in next 20 minutes. Crazy!

Reply With Quote
  #7 (permalink)
Alphachase
Nicosia, Cyprus
 
Posts: 191 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 28
Thanks Received: 106

@crito If new “polar pig” unfolds as it has been forecast recently, we will get there very soon (1000 bcf).

Reply With Quote
  #8 (permalink)
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 Big Mike 
Manta, Ecuador
Site Administrator
Developer
Swing Trader
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Custom solution
Broker: IBKR
Trading: Stocks & Futures
Frequency: Every few days
Duration: Weeks
Posts: 50,397 since Jun 2009
Thanks Given: 33,173
Thanks Received: 101,537


Alphachase View Post
@crito If new “polar pig” unfolds as it has been forecast recently, we will get there very soon (1000 bcf).

@Alphachase,

Don't use bold or underline code when mentioning someone. Simply type @crito -- it's just like on twitter or facebook, just @Username. The end, nothing special.

Mike

We're here to help: just ask the community or contact our Help Desk

Quick Links: Change your Username or Register as a Vendor
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list
Lifetime Elite Membership: Sign-up for only $149 USD
Exclusive money saving offers from our Site Sponsors: Browse Offers
Report problems with the site: Using the NexusFi changelog thread
Follow me on Twitter Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote
  #9 (permalink)
CafeGrande
St Paul, MN, USA
 
Posts: 200 since Jan 2014
Thanks Given: 131
Thanks Received: 207

Small chart, big message from a Friday, January 17 EIA report:

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	ng draw eai report.PNG
Views:	205
Size:	16.4 KB
ID:	134056  
Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #10 (permalink)
 ron99 
Cleveland, OH
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: QST
Broker: QST, DeCarley Trading, Gain
Trading: Options on Futures
Posts: 3,081 since Jul 2011
Thanks Given: 980
Thanks Received: 5,785


The extreme 10 cent moves in one hour on NG this winter are making it look like 2006 again. Extremely large traders moving the market and battling it out.

This is from DCOT futures only report.
CFTC Commitments of Traders Long Report - Natural Gas (Futures Only)



23% of gross position longs are held by 4 traders. But since this includes commercial traders I don't know if we can gain anything from this.

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:




Last Updated on November 14, 2018


© 2024 NexusFi™, s.a., All Rights Reserved.
Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama City, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada)
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
About Us - Contact Us - Site Rules, Acceptable Use, and Terms and Conditions - Privacy Policy - Downloads - Top
no new posts