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Crude Oil Daily and Monthly Charts


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Crude Oil Daily and Monthly Charts

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  #1 (permalink)
Mandeville, LA
 
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Just wanted all who trade Crude to at least beware these charts. Not sure where I should have put this, Mike, so I just started a new thread. I hope that is ok.

Crude is at a very interesting spot, as so many markets currently are...I would expect to see some stalling here with retracement.






Daniel

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  #3 (permalink)
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Your daily chart is not Kinetick EOD, but it is a mixture from different data feeds. Older data seems to be Kinetick EOD, more recent data is something else. For example Kinetick does not have a daily bar for July 4th, as it is no separate trading day.

Furthermore you have selected false rollover dates and offsets for CL, which invalidates the entire chart. Please first check your data, then decide whether you want to display a mergebackadjusted or non-adjusted or a continuous chart. Then check the rollover dates against single contract volume and enter the correct dates. Also check the offsets calculated by NinjaTrader.

If you display monthly pivots on a daily chart for CL they are mostly calculated from a different contract then the one they are displayed for. This means that mergebackadjusted data - which you took - is the only acceptable solution.
If you compare prior highs and lows, you need to take into account that mergebackadjusted data distorts the absolute price.

The actual high on September 14 was at 100.42, which means that the breakout occurred earlier than your chart shows.

But I agree with your conclusion. I also do expect that the market stalls at some stage.

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Fat Tails View Post
Your daily chart is not Kinetick EOD, but it is a mixture from different data feeds. Older data seems to be Kinetick EOD, more recent data is something else. For example Kinetick does not have a daily bar for July 4th, as it is no separate trading day.

Furthermore you have selected false rollover dates and offsets for CL, which invalidates the entire chart. Please first check your data, then decide whether you want to display a mergebackadjusted or non-adjusted or a continuous chart. Then check the rollover dates against single contract volume and enter the correct dates. Also check the offsets calculated by NinjaTrader.

If you display monthly pivots on a daily chart for CL they are mostly calculated from a different contract then the one they are displayed for. This means that mergebackadjusted data - which you took - is the only acceptable solution.
If you compare prior highs and lows, you need to take into account that mergebackadjusted data distorts the absolute price.

The actual high on September 14 was at 100.42, which means that the breakout occurred earlier than your chart shows.

But I agree with your conclusion. I also do expect that the market stalls at some stage.

Yes, you are absolutely correct. Thank you, Harry. I should not have missed that about about Kinetick not using the 4th of July. I did not refresh my charts. I will address the other data issues after the close today. Thanks again for taking the time to bring all of this to my attention.

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  #5 (permalink)
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Sorry it took so long to reply. Below are some charts of several different ways of looking at crude. Many charts would show we've just made quite the break out of a textbook triangle...Barcharts.com seems to have the best data for building long term cash-price charts of commodities.






























Daniel

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  #6 (permalink)
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Seeking one, two, or three trading acquaintances that I can more closely correspond with that are on the same learning curve as I am. (even an expert or novice who wants to keep up with this.)
What currently is grabbing my interest is looking at the support line on crude oil from 12.01.98 drawn on to the present day price. Pull up a historical chart and draw this. I prefer two to three month position trading looking at little more longer term. I don't see oil going up from here, I think we have about two and a half to three weeks at this oversold level and then I think oil is going to break through this long-term support line. Too much over supply?? Fracking of shale over the last five years is having an impact. Russia's economy, OPEC is not cutting back on supply, Russian is not cutting back on supply. After a short rest period I think that oil is going to drop to 40 with a low around 33. And then with a very nice rebound after that to trade off after. Serves OPEC right after what they did us back in 2007 and 2008, the American consumer really suffered through that.
Am open to any other interesting trading ideas. But I am on learning curve. Before joining this forum I had never heard of the term platform, had great difficulty on pulling up a good chart on oil futures, etc. I currently see a 15 or so point drop in oil down to forty in about two and a half weeks. Not too late to catch that. The way I am trading this with my former options trading experience on not knowing how to trade futures is to buy RIG Transocean May 15 Transocean puts. RIG is almost a better indicator of the oil market than the futures chart as it make a nice gap down during this downturn before the next big move down which would be my entry into buying my puts.

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Attached is are weekly charts of the front month CL (non-adjusted) with RIG (adjusted for Dividends and Splits). Note that there are inherit data problems comparing a continuous contract Future with a Stock. (Some may are argue for back adjusted data. This is not.)

I have included my SpreadDivisor indicator with and 18 period SMA and BollingerBands in the lower panel. There is a correlation between CL and RIG but as you can see the SpreadDivsior does varies from less than 1.2 (week 3, 2011) to over 3.6 (week 49, 2014).



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Bakersfield, CA USA
 
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Attached is are weekly charts of the front month CL (non-adjusted) with RIG (adjusted for Dividends and Splits). Note that there are inherit data problems comparing a continuous contract Future with a Stock. (Some may are argue for back adjusted data. This is not.)

I have included my SpreadDivisor indicator with and 18 period SMA and BollingerBands in the lower panel. There is a correlation between CL and RIG but as you can see the SpreadDivsior does varies from less than 1.2 (week 3, 2011) to over 3.6 (week 49, 2014).



Ask me anything via PM.

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  #9 (permalink)
Amarillo Texas/USA
 
 
Posts: 63 since Dec 2014

Up to present date. Some major factors to take into consideration.

The breakdown of the prior support level was 8/13/2014.
There was an eleven day retracement to the prior support level.

There is a trend line that that can be drawn well form 8/13/2014 to present day. And not to difficult to calculate the rate of the drop of oil, essentially losing 13 points a month following that trend line. Keeping things simple. Or more closely about 2.66/wk.

Oil is dropping like a falling knife. Until there is blood in the streets. I don't think that phrase is going to change.
Fear rules, the trend is your friend. Plus, there are the fundamentals in favor of this, the Saudis are trying to squeeze out the American frackers and they have 800 billion in Capital Reserves to wait this out.

There are actually two trend lines that can be drawn on the downturn. One trend line from the breakdown of support date 8/13/2014 to the OPEC meeting in Vienna Nov. 16th, Nov.17th. And then a second trend line which is steeper from the OPEC meeting to present day which is steeper. Good to keep things simple. From the trend line from 8/13/2014 to the second trend line that can be drawn from the OPEC meeting there is a clear trading channel.

Oil is following this trend line quite clearly, therefore, it seems that one should be able to project a bottom from these trend lines ??? If oil is losing 2.66 points a week based on the trend line and due to the fundamentals of Saudi oil production I think that oil is going to fall to 2003 support of 26 within two months. My prediction.

Patience and fear.. Of human nature, we are on global markets now. things move faster than the old days. So my prediction is oil bottoming out at 26 to reach the 2003 support level in 2 months. Hold me to that call.

Now, my question would be, if I have a price projection for oil to be at 26 in two months. What is the most profitable way to trade that? Most conservatively, I could simply short DNO on a cash account with no margin. I am currently holding 175 May 15 RIG puts, 57 ERY July 15 calls, and 800 ERY common stock. I see from my own trade notes that I don't understand well enough the time erosion on the options. Should I close out these positions in a timely manner and take up a better strategy?

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