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Trading natural gas futures


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Trading natural gas futures

  #81 (permalink)
 jokertrader 
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Surprising that F/G so much higher than H/G but with vol coming in and cash prices correcting/short term weather that might change


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  #82 (permalink)
 jokertrader 
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Sad I covered my F/G short yesterday


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  #83 (permalink)
 
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 SMCJB 
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NG margins drop 20%/$1100 effective tonite.
(Feb & Mar only, but G&H are 300% of April).

On a different note ICE storage futures for this week are -35/-34 and for next week -95/-75 vs normal of -125 and -165 so storage is going to gain about 200 BCF vs normal.

Market saying Winter is over, or at least Storage concerns are.

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  #84 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Linz Austria
 
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SMCJB View Post

Market saying Winter is over, or at least Storage concerns are.

It is interesting to note that - whereas the NG market is saying winter is over - the RB-HO market is still in winter mode. The prices for these spreads are still significantly below average for these contracts.

There should still be some potential for further gains. (I am holding the RBK-HOK.)

Any opinions ?

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #85 (permalink)
 ron99 
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myrrdin View Post
It is interesting to note that - whereas the NG market is saying winter is over - the RB-HO market is still in winter mode. The prices for these spreads are still significantly below average for these contracts.

There should still be some potential for further gains. (I am holding the RBK-HOK.)

Any opinions ?

Best regards, Myrrdin

I had on RBf-HOf and RBk-HOk on. I took nice profit (+19k on 15 spreads) late Dec. Seasonal shows another rise from now to late Jan. Weather is above normal temps for at least 2 weeks. I may reenter soon.

For NG I am looking to add some NG call spreads to my put spreads that are losing money.

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  #86 (permalink)
 
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 SMCJB 
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myrrdin View Post
It is interesting to note that - whereas the NG market is saying winter is over - the RB-HO market is still in winter mode. The prices for these spreads are still significantly below average for these contracts.

There should still be some potential for further gains. (I am holding the RBK-HOK.)

Any opinions ?

Best regards, Myrrdin

I believe HO stocks are historically low while Gasoline/RB stocks are historically high, and hence supply is dominating fundamentals rather than demand.
Slightly different with NG where stocks are low, but implied demand going forward is even lower, hence the expected return to more normal stock scenario's.

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  #87 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
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SMCJB View Post
I believe HO stocks are historically low while Gasoline/RB stocks are historically high, and hence supply is dominating fundamentals rather than demand.

Should not the relatively high price of HO compared to RB be a motivation for more imports and a higher production of HO over the next couple of months ?

Or is it reasonable that the RBK-HOK spread stays at the current low price level or even moves further downwards ?

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #88 (permalink)
 ron99 
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myrrdin View Post
Should not the relatively high price of HO compared to RB be a motivation for more imports and a higher production of HO over the next couple of months ?

Or is it reasonable that the RBK-HOK spread stays at the current low price level or even moves further downwards ?

Best regards, Myrrdin

I have weekly EIA data charted here icluding stocks of gasoline and heating oil (distillates).
https://public.tableau.com/profile/ron.h8870

All of my charts are here
https://public.tableau.com/profile/ron.h8870

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  #89 (permalink)
 
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 ElChacal 
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Does anyone have any idea of what % of the gas at the Permian Basin/Waha Hub is "associated gas" vs. "non-associated gas" ?
More of a technical question. I am wondering what % if any is a byproduct of Crude production...

(Looking for the "maple leaf" emoticon)

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  #90 (permalink)
 
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 SMCJB 
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@ElChacal I believe a high percentage is associated, which is why they keep producing even though prices don't support. (Waha has been under $1 often in the last 3 months and I believe the Waha First of the Month price for December was actually negative. Meaning if you sold somebody gas at Waha based upon First of Month Index, you would have had to pay them to take it from you!)

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