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Trading natural gas futures


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Trading natural gas futures

  #321 (permalink)
 
SMCJB's Avatar
 SMCJB 
Houston TX
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Another margin decrease!

NG Margin changes effective COB October 25th , 2022

Maintenance margin's changing as follows (Note: Non-member initial margin rates will be 110% of these)

Tier 1 / Nov22 decreasing from $10,500 to $9,000 -$1500
Tier 2-4 / Dec22-Feb23 decreasing from $10,300 to $9,000 -$1300
Tier 5 / Mar23 decreasing from $8500 to $7200 -$1300
Tier 6 / Apr23 decreasing from $5000 to $4400 -$600
...
Tier 12 / Oct23 decreasing from $4200 to $3600 -$600
...
Tier 15 / Jan24 decreasing from $3650 to $3050 -$600

https://www.cmegroup.com/notices/clearing/2022/10/Chadv22-408.html

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  #322 (permalink)
 
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 SMCJB 
Houston TX
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TT and Stellar
Broker: Advantage Futures
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
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Posts: 5,049 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,386
Thanks Received: 10,206

NG Margin changes effective COB December 9th, 2022

Maintenance margin's changing as follows (Note: Non-member initial margin rates will be 110% of these)

Tier 1-2 / Jan23-Feb23 unchanged at $9,000
Tier 3 / Mar23 decreasing from $7200 to $6700 -$500
Tier 4 / Apr23 decreasing from $4400 to $4000 -$400
...
Tier 10 / Oct23 decreasing from $3600 to $3500 -$100
...
Tier 13 / Jan24 unchanged at $3050
...
Tier 16 / Apr24 decreasing from $2550 to $2200 -$350
...

https://www.cmegroup.com/notices/clearing/2022/12/Chadv22-465.html

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  #323 (permalink)
bob666s
Auckland + auckland/new zealand
 
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implied NG fair value wrt a basket of local hub basis' is at 5.8~/mmbtu

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  #324 (permalink)
 
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 SMCJB 
Houston TX
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TT and Stellar
Broker: Advantage Futures
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Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,049 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,386
Thanks Received: 10,206

Apologies in advance if this is behind a paywall for non-subscribers.

WSJ:- German Facility, Built at Breakneck Speed, Accepts Gas Shipment From U.S.
LNG cargo arrives at terminal in port town of Wilhelmshaven as Germany scrambles to replace Russian gas
https://www.wsj.com/articles/german-facility-built-at-breakneck-speed-accepts-gas-shipment-from-u-s-11672752295

The specific bit I found interesting...
Germany’s newly constructed liquefied-natural-gas terminal received its first full cargo from the U.S. on Tuesday, as Berlin races to shore up its supply after the end of its decadeslong energy relationship with Russia. The shipment arrived at the LNG import terminal in the port town of Wilhelmshaven on the North Sea, a facility that was built at a breakneck speed in less than a year to help Germany avert an energy shortage.

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  #325 (permalink)
 
SMCJB's Avatar
 SMCJB 
Houston TX
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TT and Stellar
Broker: Advantage Futures
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,049 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,386
Thanks Received: 10,206

NG Margin changes effective COB January 4th, 2022[/SIZE][/U]

Maintenance margin's changing as follows (Note: Non-member initial margin rates will be 110% of these)

Tier 1 / Feb23 decreasing from $9000 to $7000 -$2000 or 22.2% (!!!!!)
Tier 2 / Mar23 decreasing from $6700 to $5500 -$1200 or 17.9%
but then ...
Tier 3 / Apr23 increasing from $4400 to $4600 +$200
Tier 4 / May23 increasing from $3900 to $4200 +$300
...
Tier 9 / Oct23 increasing from $3500 to $3700 +$200
...
Tier 13 / Jan24 unchanged at $3050
...
Tier 16 / Apr24 decreasing from $2200 to $2200 -$200
...

https://www.cmegroup.com/notices/clearing/2023/01/Chadv23-004.html

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  #326 (permalink)
 
SMCJB's Avatar
 SMCJB 
Houston TX
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TT and Stellar
Broker: Advantage Futures
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,049 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,386
Thanks Received: 10,206

NG Margin changes effective COB January 20th, 2022[/SIZE][/U] (ie this has already happened)

Maintenance margin's changing as follows (Note: Non-member initial margin rates will be 110% of these)

Tier 1 / Feb23 decreasing from $7000 to $6000 -$1000
Tier 2 / Mar23 decreasing from $5500 to $5000 -$500
Tier 3 / Apr23 unchanged at $4400

https://www.cmegroup.com/notices/clearing/2023/01/Chadv23-017.html

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  #327 (permalink)
 
SMCJB's Avatar
 SMCJB 
Houston TX
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TT and Stellar
Broker: Advantage Futures
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,049 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,386
Thanks Received: 10,206

Been traveling so this is now a week old, but for the record

NG Margin changes effective COB February 10th, 2022

Maintenance margin's changing as follows (Note: Non-member initial margin rates will be 110% of these)

Tier 1 / Mar23 decreasing from $5000 to $4500 -$500
Tier 2 / Apr23 decreasing from $4400 to $4000 -$400
...
Tier 8 / Oct23 decreasing from $3700 to $3300 -$400
...
Tier 11 / Jan24 unchanged at $3050

https://www.cmegroup.com/notices/clearing/2023/02/Chadv23-039.html

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  #328 (permalink)
 SpreadPlanner   is a Vendor
 
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Usually brokers offer margin discounts if instead of trading on a single contract you trade on the difference between two (or more) contracts. This method is called spread trading and consists of buying one contract with a certain maturity and selling another with a different maturity on the same underlying (intra-commodity) spread.

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  #329 (permalink)
 
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 SMCJB 
Houston TX
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TT and Stellar
Broker: Advantage Futures
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,049 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,386
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John Kemp talking about EU Storage today in his daily 'Best In Energy'. Definitely worth signing up for (its free).

EUROPE’s gas inventories amounted to 754 TWh on May 22. Stocks were +273 TWh (+57% or +2.00 standard deviations) on May 22 above the prior ten-year seasonal average compared with a surplus of +267 TWh (+51% or +2.72 standard deviations on February 6. Inventories are the second-highest on record for the time of year and the surplus is narrowing very slowly. Stocks are on track to peak at 1,237 TWh at the end of the refill season, exceeding the available storage capacity of around 1,139 TWh. Futures prices for deliveries in June and July continue to fall to encourage more consumption and divert cargoes to Asia:

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  #330 (permalink)
 
SMCJB's Avatar
 SMCJB 
Houston TX
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TT and Stellar
Broker: Advantage Futures
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,049 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,386
Thanks Received: 10,206



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