Trading natural gas futures - futures io
futures io



Trading natural gas futures


Discussion in Commodities

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one SMCJB with 108 posts (242 thanks)
    2. looks_two myrrdin with 19 posts (41 thanks)
    3. looks_3 ron99 with 17 posts (38 thanks)
    4. looks_4 jokertrader with 17 posts (12 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one SMCJB with 2.2 thanks per post
    2. looks_two myrrdin with 2.2 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 ron99 with 2.2 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 Schnook with 1.8 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 41,355 views
    2. thumb_up 384 thanks given
    3. group 60 followers
    1. forum 241 posts
    2. attach_file 27 attachments




Welcome to futures io: the largest futures trading community on the planet, with well over 125,000 members
  • Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
  • Quality education from leading professional traders
  • We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
  • We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

 
Search this Thread
 

Trading natural gas futures

(login for full post details)
  #211 (permalink)
bob666s
Auckland + auckland/new zealand
 
 
Posts: 54 since Jun 2016
Thanks: 6 given, 34 received


SMCJB View Post
NG Margin increase effective COB September 10th, 2021

Maintenance margin's increasing as follows (Note: Non-member initial margin rates will be 110% of these)

Tier 1 / Oct21 from $3500 to $4100 +$600 / +17%
Tier 2 / Nov21 from $3400 to $4050 +$650 / +19%
Tier 3-5 / Dec21-Feb22 from $3300 to $3950 +$650 / +20%
Tier 6 / Mar22 from $3100 to $3550 +$450 / +15%
Tier 7 / Apr22 from $1450 to $1800 +$350 / +24% (!!!)
Tier 8 / May22 from $1300 to $1500 +$200 / +15%
Tier 9-13 / Jun22-Oct22 from $1300 to $1400 +$100 / +8%
Tier 14-18 / Nov22-Mar23 from $1100 to $1300 +$200 / +18%
Tier 19-30 / Apr23-Mar24 from $750 to $800 +$50 / +7%
all others unchanged.

https://www.cmegroup.com/notices/clearing/2021/09/Chadv21-317.html

And it hasn't even started getting cold yet!

what are some of the incentives for nymex to increase margin req? could it be due to one sided positions getting heavy?

Reply With Quote

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on futures io?
How to Register my Company in this Platform
Stocks and ETFs
RangeRider for NT8 V10
The Elite Circle
Alternative to Mcginley Dynamic MA
Sierra Chart
Simple code to end my indicator
NinjaTrader
Tradestation 10 work offline
TradeStation
 
Best Threads (Most Thanked)
in the last 7 days on futures io
Vinny E-Mini & Algobox Review TRADE ROOM
284 thanks
Would you share your Holy Grail?
83 thanks
EURUSD M6E/6E Euro
63 thanks
Spoo-nalysis ES e-mini futures S&P 500
47 thanks
TST/OneUp/LeeLoo/Earn2Trade
17 thanks
 
(login for full post details)
  #212 (permalink)
 SMCJB 
Legendary Market Wizard
Houston, TX
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Trading Technologies
Broker: Primary Advantage Futures. Also ED&F and Tradestation
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little GE, GC, SI & Bitcoin
 
Posts: 4,322 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 3,643 given, 8,676 received


bob666s View Post
what are some of the incentives for nymex to increase margin req? could it be due to one sided positions getting heavy?

Volatility

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #213 (permalink)
bob666s
Auckland + auckland/new zealand
 
 
Posts: 54 since Jun 2016
Thanks: 6 given, 34 received



SMCJB View Post
Volatility

noted with thanks

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #214 (permalink)
bob666s
Auckland + auckland/new zealand
 
 
Posts: 54 since Jun 2016
Thanks: 6 given, 34 received

Tried to run a valuation estimate with COT positions and storage, using neural networks. The output came out still close to the earlier estimates, around high 3's for the next couple of months. It feels too low, even if the coming HDD turns out about where expectations lie.

details of the method are posted here: https://bastion.substack.com/p/ng-quantamental-st-fv-fcasts

Does anyone have any idea why the quantitative approach is likely off, or wrong by so much? I'll take any suggestions regarding how to adjust this for improved accuracy. thanks.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #215 (permalink)
 SMCJB 
Legendary Market Wizard
Houston, TX
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Trading Technologies
Broker: Primary Advantage Futures. Also ED&F and Tradestation
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little GE, GC, SI & Bitcoin
 
Posts: 4,322 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 3,643 given, 8,676 received

NatGas Margins going up AGAIN!

NG Margin increase effective COB September 14th, 2021

Maintenance margin's increasing as follows (Note: Non-member initial margin rates will be 110% of these)

Tier 1 / Oct21 from $4100 to $4300 +$200
Tier 2 / Nov21 from $4050 to $4300 +$250
Tier 3-4 / Dec21 & Jan22 from $3950 to $4300 +$350
Tier 5 / Feb22 from $3850 to $4275 +$425
Tier 6 / Mar22 from $3550 to $3700 +$150
Tier 7 / Apr22 from $1800 to $1950 +$150
Tier 8 / May22 from $1500 to $1600 +$100
Tier 9-13 / Jun22-Oct22 from $1400 to $1500 +$100
Tier 14-18 / Nov22-Mar23 from $1300 to $1450 +$150
all others unchanged.

https://www.cmegroup.com/notices/clearing/2021/09/Chadv21-324.html

Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #216 (permalink)
 SMCJB 
Legendary Market Wizard
Houston, TX
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Trading Technologies
Broker: Primary Advantage Futures. Also ED&F and Tradestation
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little GE, GC, SI & Bitcoin
 
Posts: 4,322 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 3,643 given, 8,676 received


bob666s View Post
Tried to run a valuation estimate with COT positions and storage, using neural networks. The output came out still close to the earlier estimates, around high 3's for the next couple of months. It feels too low, even if the coming HDD turns out about where expectations lie.

details of the method are posted here: https://bastion.substack.com/p/ng-quantamental-st-fv-fcasts

Does anyone have any idea why the quantitative approach is likely off, or wrong by so much? I'll take any suggestions regarding how to adjust this for improved accuracy. thanks.

Ever think about making the data you used downloadable on your substack page?

Comments
  1. Nobody should take Neural Network advice from me, as I have a very high failure rate on using them. I always find that changing the initial seed completely changes my results which obviously means my model isn't stable or predictive.
  2. Not sure the value of OI, especially if you are only looking at NYMEX NG and not including ICE HNG. Also I think you will find OI is seasonal.
  3. With the EIA data are you looking at outright levels or change vs say 5 year average. Outright levels are highly seasonal. Change vs 5 year gives a better quick summary of fundamentals. Obviously if you have month (or even week) as a variable then a good ML model should identify this relationship but it could be a better feature. At a minimum include actual data and 5 year average data and let the model imply the change the difference.
  4. Price vs Oil. This is becoming a lot more prevalent now but several years ago was irrelevant. One of the reasons US gas inventories are low is because of the amount of LNG we are exporting. Doesn't matter that US prices are at multi year highs/$5-6 when international prices are at $20. Exports will happen as fast as they can load the vessels. This definitely WASN'T the case historically.
  5. Finally your charts all show the last 2-4 years. The US has been in over supply situation during this period. If you look back say 10-15 years, when the US was in a supply deficiet you will see extremely different price relationships. Given the fundamental difference this year, maybe the last 2-4 years aren't the best to train data on.

Like the work. Keep posting.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #217 (permalink)
 SMCJB 
Legendary Market Wizard
Houston, TX
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Trading Technologies
Broker: Primary Advantage Futures. Also ED&F and Tradestation
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little GE, GC, SI & Bitcoin
 
Posts: 4,322 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 3,643 given, 8,676 received

Sorry this one is a few days late. Was out of town end of last week.

Yes NatGas Margins going up AGAIN!

NG Margin increase effective COB September 17th, 2021

Maintenance margin's increasing as follows (Note: Non-member initial margin rates will be 110% of these)

Tier 1-4 / Oct21-Jan22 from $4300 to $4800 +$500
Tier 5 / Feb22 from $4275 to $4800 +$525
Tier 6 / Mar22 from $3700 to $4200 +$500
Tier 7 / Apr22 from $1950 to $2150 +$200
Tier 8 / May22 from $1600 to $1750 +$150
Tier 9-13 / Jun22-Oct22 from $1500 to $1650 +$150
Tier 14-18 / Nov22-Mar23 from $1450 to $1500 +$50
other months going up between $0 and $75

https://www.cmegroup.com/notices/clearing/2021/09/Chadv21-238.html

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #218 (permalink)
 SMCJB 
Legendary Market Wizard
Houston, TX
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Trading Technologies
Broker: Primary Advantage Futures. Also ED&F and Tradestation
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little GE, GC, SI & Bitcoin
 
Posts: 4,322 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 3,643 given, 8,676 received

Interesting read. The bearish NG case....

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4455892-natural-gas-could-crash-without-a-cold-winter

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #219 (permalink)
 ron99 
Market Wizard
Cleveland, OH
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: QST
Broker: QST, DeCarley Trading, Gain
Trading: Options on Futures
 
Posts: 3,075 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 974 given, 5,752 received



Thanks.

I love the Cordier photo.

KOLD is trading at 11.15 this morning. Last Friday when he wrote article it was 9.52.

What ways will others here use to get short NG.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to ron99 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #220 (permalink)
 ron99 
Market Wizard
Cleveland, OH
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: QST
Broker: QST, DeCarley Trading, Gain
Trading: Options on Futures
 
Posts: 3,075 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 974 given, 5,752 received




I do have to wonder about the data he used for weather. It looks like he didn't use population weighted weather data. He said this,



But pwCDD for July were below the long term average and below prior years. The heat was in the less populated western part of the US.

August was hotter than prior years and the long term avg.


Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to ron99 for this post:


futures io Trading Community Traders Hideout Commodities > Trading natural gas futures


Last Updated on October 14, 2021


Upcoming Webinars and Events
 

NinjaTrader Indicator Challenge!

Ongoing
     



Copyright © 2021 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada), info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts