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What's next for Crude Oil?


Discussion in Commodities

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What's next for Crude Oil?
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$60 or $100?

(Today's price = $80).

Vote on the home page, discuss here.

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My best is $ 74.95 first and then we'll see what happens. If it breaks that $ 60 might be on the plate.

Weekly shows a break through, reset and go from the 200 EMA, that is not a bullish sign either...

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I pulled this cumulative Volume off the gom data sharing thread.
Continually building short interest even thru recent highs over 100.
I did this on a whim, haven't checked the COT for any insight/confirmation.

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Spec's seemed to have tossed some longs but still holding on to some & Comm's net short 200k, with a level three bottom coming up around 80-78 the spec's will wash out on a dip below .
Have to see this weeks COT and see how data it pairs with Cumulative delta real time.

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Be interesting to see if Cl can diverge from ES with the election up coming: cheap oil....high stocks & .....
no jobs

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If the poll reaches enough answers, bet the opposite direction. If you are right, at least it will be quick.

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GaryD View Post
If the poll reaches enough answers, bet the opposite direction. If you are right, at least it will be quick.

Funny i been watching this poll, out of interest

When we were hitting the lows with a potential waterfall down, the majority were voting $60

Now we have seen some buy pressure come in $100 seems to be leading the Poll


Will be interesting if we see the lows of the range tested, bet the $60 comes back into the picture again. This is like a mini market


lets bet the opposite direction @GaryD

Or use the poll as a lagging indicator HA

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Iran is complaining about sub $100 crude, and called for an emergency meeting.

Not that they know anything about trading though...

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Poll closed, results:



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Do you think we can get down to $80 here?

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Market Sniper 88 View Post
Do you think we can get down to $80 here?

Yes-Iran's currency has collapsed well over 50% of its value in the past week alone..

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patbateman View Post
Yes-Iran's currency has collapsed well over 50% of its value in the past week alone..

hi PB,
can you ellaborate a little on your response please ie how does iran's currency collapse impact the price of oil in dollars (or gold for that matter - which is what some countries are using to pay for it)?
thanks.
rosho

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Anyone have any thoughts on the reversal we had on crude today?

All seems pretty crazy with 4%+ down one day then 4%+ up the next?

A lot more volume on todays action than yesterday, thats for sure.

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Possibly something to do with the Syria/Turkey tensions.

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Market Sniper 88 View Post
Possibly something to do with the Syria/Turkey tensions.

An attempt to explain it.....

Oil Markets Limp into Fourth Quarter

"The drag on crude oil prices was exacerbated by reports from the U.S. Energy Department's Energy Information Administration that crude oil output from the United States increased 11,000 barrels per day to 6.52 million bpd, its highest level in more than 16 years. U.S. crude oil stocks, however, bucked analyst's expectations and dropped by 482,000 barrels during the last week of September. That came despite a 511,000 increase in crude oil imports for the same reporting period. Market analysts reacted more strongly, however, to overall weak economic data than to oil stocks in the United States."

As oilprice says, the inventory figs out yest were bullish (though there was other contrary figs also eg output), but the sell off in oil had already begun.

And as you say, turkey fired into syria last night & today.

If you had traded the charts yest you would have done well.

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Not sure how long the market has known about this....

"Hugo Chávez promises to increase production and reduce dependence on US market by doubling crude exports to Asia...."
Venezuela election result set to upset global oil politics | World news | The Observer

....if he wins. Wonder if this was the cause for the sell off over last couple of weeks. Lets wait & see.

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