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The Crude Dude Oil Trading System

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  #1 (permalink)
 lancelottrader 
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Hi everyone. I'm new on here, but I thought I would make a post about my Trading style, since I feel it's fairly different than what I usually see out there. I have been trading about 6 years, mostly Forex, but have transitioned to Futures a few months back. I would say my original style was scalping for a few ticks on what I considered high probabilty setups. Generally I always tried to wait untill I saw some true momentum and price acceleration develop before taking a trade. I will admit to originally starting out with the Wizetrade software (Stop laughing now.. 4k on software? Yes..you're still laughing..stop it now !) So, for either good or bad, I never learned how to use Candle charts, MacD, EMa, Stochastics, Fibonacci or any of that stuff. I still don't use any of that..and perhaps that why I've been consistently profitable for the last year or so. It's been a long painful journey, but the millions of hours of screentime have paid off. I will say this about the wizetrade charts..I have never seen anything better for showing real time buying and selling pressure. When you see the Angles blow up, you know the market has extreme momentum. OK, what I do now is a little research on longer timeframes but I trade mostly off a 2 range chart with some custom indicators that draw real time support and resistance and also plot algorithmic trailing stops. Between a combo of Price levels, price action, "Speed of Tape" or rapid price movement and yes...my Wizetrade charts as added confirmation, I enter the trade..using Ninja's Chart Trader. I will then drag and drop my stoploss bar over the dots , when the price breaches the dots, I'm taken out of the Trade. Of course, there is a lot of discretion involved...which comes from screentime. But instead of getting a few ticks now, I have the ability..through my software ..to ride out runners of 30-50 ticks or more. These are usually fast moving trades. I get the best results on TF and Oil..because once they move, they really move! I have posted a chart and you can see how I stayed in this trade because of the Algorithmic stoploss dots. Just to clarify, I am not trying to promote anything here..no software (That's why I blocked out some things on the chart), no systems, nothing. I'm not interested in teaching anyone anything. I guess my point I'm trying to make is that you can invent your own style and system yourself, and become profitable. Lagging indicators don't always give you the here and now..or Real Time price movement. What many people call "Noise", I call profit. On an extremly fast movement on oil..like after news perhaps, I will enter using Ninjas ATM with a fairly tight trail. It works great. When Market conditions are choppy, I stay out. That's the most important thing for my system..is recognizing when the market is moving with speed and direction. No momentum..no trade.

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 cory 
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lancelottrader View Post
.. I am not trying to promote anything here..no software (That's why I blocked out some things on the chart), no systems, nothing.


I'm not interested in teaching anyone anything. I guess my point I'm trying to make is that you can invent your own style and system yourself, and become profitable. Lagging indicators don't always give you the here and now..or Real Time price movement. What many people call "Noise", I call profit. On an extremly fast movement on oil..like after news perhaps, I will enter using Ninjas ATM with a fairly tight trail. It works great. When Market conditions are choppy, I stay out. That's the most important thing for my system..is recognizing when the market is moving with speed and direction. No momentum..no trade.

Mike is against vendors promote their 'system/method'. If you are not vendor then there is no need to block anything.

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 Lornz 
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lancelottrader View Post
renko chart, support and resistance, algorithmic trailing stops, a combo of Price levels, price action, "Speed of Tape"/DOM (slightly edited)

Trading that way is absolutely possible, that is my main source of income. Add in a little statistical analysis, and you've got my main trading method. I use no on-chart indicators, though.

The problem is that the reading the "pace" is not something everyone can do, it seems. I think this is a genetic trait, or maybe I am just a bad teacher.

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 lancelottrader 
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cory View Post
Mike is against vendors promote their 'system/method'. If you are not vendor then there is no need to block anything.

Thanks for the info..I think I'll still keep it blocked though.

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 lancelottrader 
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Lornz View Post
Trading that way is absolutely possible, that is my main source of income. Add in a little statistical analysis, and you've got my main trading method. I use no on-chart indicators, though.

The problem is that the reading the "pace" is not something everyone can do, it seems. I think this is a genetic trait, or maybe I am just a bad teacher.

Awesome, glad to know there's people doing well with this sort of style. I think when you've seen price move after a news event, you get an idea of how fast it can move...and witness an extreme "Pace of tape". Of course, those news moves can be initially chaotic. I prefer to wait at least 3 to 5 minutes..sometimes more. But once an Event, whether it's news or just a huge orderflow move, creates momentum, then the moves become more directional and bigger both up and down at times..Then all my signals become more valid. My belief is that most of the time, price movement is very hard to predict and it's only for a few minutes where you know..with a high degree of probabilty, that it's going to move directionally for a some ticks.. And you must move fast without hesitation..And if you know the next immediate area of price congestion, that can be your initial target. If it breaks through that level, you have a potential runner on your hands. Here's another TF chart from a couple weeks back. I made a 100 ticks right at the close of the Equity session. If you look at the chart you will see a thick black spine that is on the outside of the white price line and the colored "Rainbow lines"..Sometimes if I feel the trade has more potential, I won't exit on the breach of the Stoploss dots. Instead I will keep manually moving my stop (On Ninja's Chart Trader) up, but keep it just outside the black spine. As you can see the trade runs up about 100 ticks before it breaks out of the Spine. This was the biggest Runner I've ever caught in my life . Remember, I'm a scalper by nature ..and I will exit with 4 ticks or so if I feel that's all it's going to do..and I seldom have an initial stop of more than 10 ticks . I don't know if it's psychological or what..but after entry I used to exclusively watch my P and L..not the chart and as soon as I was up a few ticks, I'd get anxious and exit as soon as possible. But with the Chart Trader, I watch the price on the chart and just keep dragging that stoploss bar and follow the price..I guess because I'm not so focused on the profit or loss, I just concentrate more on the chart. Anyhow, it's working and learning to stay in a winning trade longer is what took my trading to another level. I did ok scalping, but the hit rate has to be so high to really make money. Now, I lose a few small one's..win a few small ones..and then ride out "The Big Wave."

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 lancelottrader 
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Here's one more move of close to a 100 ticks on TF..on what I've named 'The Spine Runner". As you can see. the price stays in the Black spine for the whole move..You can also see the Red horizontal lines, which are price congestion areas, being breached. Had price been obviously rejected at those areas, I would have exited before the Spine was penetrated.

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 Lornz 
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lancelottrader View Post
Awesome, glad to know there's people doing well with this sort of style. I think when you've seen price move after a news event, you get an idea of how fast it can move...and witness an extreme "Pace of tape". Of course, those news moves can be initially chaotic. I prefer to wait at least 3 to 5 minutes..sometimes more. But once an Event, whether it's news or just a huge orderflow move, creates momentum, then the moves become more directional and bigger both up and down at times..Then all my signals become more valid. My belief is that most of the time, price movement is very hard to predict and it's only for a few minutes where you know..with a high degree of probabilty, that it's going to move directionally for a some ticks.. And you must move fast without hesitation..And if you know the next immediate area of price congestion, that can be your initial target. If it breaks through that level, you have a potential runner on your hands. Here's another TF chart from a couple weeks back. I made a 100 ticks right at the close of the Equity session. If you look at the chart you will see a thick black spine that is on the outside of the white price line and the colored "Rainbow lines"..Sometimes if I feel the trade has more potential, I won't exit on the breach of the Stoploss dots. Instead I will keep manually moving my stop (On Ninja's Chart Trader) up, but keep it just outside the black spine. As you can see the trade runs up about 100 ticks before it breaks out of the Spine. This was the biggest Runner I've ever caught in my life . Remember, I'm a scalper by nature ..and I will exit with 4 ticks or so if I feel that's all it's going to do..and I seldom have an initial stop of more than 10 ticks . I don't know if it's psychological or what..but after entry I used to exclusively watch my P and L..not the chart and as soon as I was up a few ticks, I'd get anxious and exit as soon as possible. But with the Chart Trader, I watch the price on the chart and just keep dragging that stoploss bar and follow the price..I guess because I'm not so focused on the profit or loss, I just concentrate more on the chart. Anyhow, it's working and learning to stay in a winning trade longer is what took my trading to another level. I did ok scalping, but the hit rate has to be so high to really make money. Now, I lose a few small one's..win a few small ones..and then ride out "The Big Wave."

I agree with most of that, but I don't see many talking about it in here. Trading is really that simple, at least when trading a volatile instrument. Most, however, get lost in trying to "understand" the market through various indicators, I just want to catch the occasional big move...

Nice to know that there are others out there doing the same thing (or maybe not! )...

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 lancelottrader 
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Lornz View Post
I agree with most of that, but I don't see many talking about it in here. Trading is really that simple, at least when trading a volatile instrument. Most, however, get lost in trying to "understand" the market through various indicators, I just want to catch the occasional big move...

Nice to know that there are others out there doing the same thing (or maybe not! )...

I think you just nailed it on the head. People keep looking at all these formulas , ratios, indicators and search for all these systems. In a trending smooth market..lots of systems will work, but when market conditions change, the system no longer works. And then, the search for the next Grail begins. Been there, done that. Had an automated system that worked great for 3 months straight, Then I put some serious money into it and the market conditions changed and I lost lots of money fast. Then it dawned on me..price moves because some big entity bought or sold a large order because of a news event or some inside info or whatever....The price didn't move because of some magical mathematical formula or some indicator..The "Big Boys" just decided to do something .. or..nowadays because some algorithic program fired off orders. All I know is that I want to recognize those orderflow moments, hop on board and ride the train..and after trading Forex, S &P, Dow Futures, my favorites are now Oil and Russell. Love them.

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 Lornz 
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lancelottrader View Post
I think you just nailed it on the head. People keep looking at all these formulas , ratios, indicators and search for all these systems. In a trending smooth market..lots of systems will work, but when market conditions change, the system no longer works. And then, the search for the next Grail begins. Been there, done that. Had an automated system that worked great for 3 months straight, Then I put some serious money into it and the market conditions changed and I lost lots of money fast. Then it dawned on me..price moves because some big entity bought or sold a large order because of a news event or some inside info or whatever....The price didn't move because of some magical mathematical formula or some indicator..The "Big Boys" just decided to do something .. or..nowadays because some algorithic program fired off orders. All I know is that I want to recognize those orderflow moments, hop on board and ride the train..and after trading Forex, S &P, Dow Futures, my favorites are now Oil and Russell. Love them.


Exactly! The algorithms sometimes flock together and price takes of. There's a certain "rhythm" to it that is discernible. As you say, it doesn't always work out -- but the large winners more than make up for it!

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 bluemele 
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So what do you do when the market ranges like mad?

Give back all your Big Wave profits?

You have some great examples and of course anyone could trade an ATR breakout and make 'gobs', but the trick is knowing that the market is going to do this or not. If you could predict for certain that a date is ranging or a day is trending then that alone would make you a billionaire within a couple years.

No offense to you personally, but the obvious has been printed in your thread here.

"If price moves up and keeps moving up, stay long!"

"If price reverses get out!"....

Sounds great, maybe I just don't get it...

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Nasdin94
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bluemele View Post
So what do you do when the market ranges like mad?

Give back all your Big Wave profits?


Sounds great, maybe I just don't get it...

What happens if it ranges?
I'll draw rectangles.
And trade by awaiting price action to form from one end of the rectangle to the other

And if this does happen, usually it would break through the other end of the rectangle.
And this creates a new rectangle.
And the process repeats until the market starts trending.

Its very difficult to explain.

If it doesnt range as bad, then i'll draw triangles, ascending triangles,descending, symm triangles.. wedges,
Well you know.

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 lancelottrader 
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bluemele View Post
So what do you do when the market ranges like mad?

Give back all your Big Wave profits?

You have some great examples and of course anyone could trade an ATR breakout and make 'gobs', but the trick is knowing that the market is going to do this or not. If you could predict for certain that a date is ranging or a day is trending then that alone would make you a billionaire within a couple years.

No offense to you personally, but the obvious has been printed in your thread here.

"If price moves up and keeps moving up, stay long!"

"If price reverses get out!"....

Sounds great, maybe I just don't get it...

My whole point is that the whole secret of great trading is being able to recognize the prevailing market conditions. Yes, I can tell if the market is choppy and is in a range. ...and I don't give the profits back, I simply don't trade. In fact, I"ll set price alarms to notify me when the range is broken. I won't even watch too closely until then so I won't be tempted to enter. And if the price breaks out of the range, I will then assess the current, real- time Market conditions. If I don't feel the momentum is sufficient to propel the price significantly, I will remain on the sidelines. You state that I'm basically implying, "If price moves up and keeps moving up, stay long!""If price reverses get out!"..... Again, one of the biggest dillemas for many traders is in deciding when to take profit or get out. It's not always obvious. I was trying to show that between certain techniques I use on Ninja Chart Trader and the software I use, I have been able to catch runners that I never could in the past . This was an issue for me ..getting out of trades too soon. If you are someone who can take a huge portion of a given move, then you are way ahead of where I was..as a trader. More power to you. A lot of traders, I believe struggle with the same issues I had. Not knowing when market conditions are choppy and highly unpredictable. Also, not knowing how long to remain in a winning trade. Again, if you never had those issues, then you are in the upper echelon of traders. Kudos to you.

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 lancelottrader 
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Nasdin94 View Post
What happens if it ranges?
I'll draw rectangles.
And trade by awaiting price action to form from one end of the rectangle to the other

And if this does happen, usually it would break through the other end of the rectangle.
And this creates a new rectangle.
And the process repeats until the market starts trending.

Its very difficult to explain.

If it doesnt range as bad, then i'll draw triangles, ascending triangles,descending, symm triangles.. wedges,
Well you know.

Excellent post.

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 bluemele 
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lancelottrader View Post
My whole point is that the whole secret of great trading is being able to recognize the prevailing market conditions. Yes, I can tell if the market is choppy and is in a range. ...and I don't give the profits back, I simply don't trade. In fact, I"ll set price alarms to notify me when the range is broken. I won't even watch too closely until then so I won't be tempted to enter. And if the price breaks out of the range, I will then assess the current, real- time Market conditions. If I don't feel the momentum is sufficient to propel the price significantly, I will remain on the sidelines. You state that I'm basically implying, "If price moves up and keeps moving up, stay long!""If price reverses get out!"..... Again, one of the biggest dillemas for many traders is in deciding when to take profit or get out. It's not always obvious. I was trying to show that between certain techniques I use on Ninja Chart Trader and the software I use, I have been able to catch runners that I never could in the past . This was an issue for me ..getting out of trades too soon. If you are someone who can take a huge portion of a given move, then you are way ahead of where I was..as a trader. More power to you. A lot of traders, I believe struggle with the same issues I had. Not knowing when market conditions are choppy and highly unpredictable. Also, not knowing how long to remain in a winning trade. Again, if you never had those issues, then you are in the upper echelon of traders. Kudos to you.

Nope that is definitely not me, nor anyone I have yet to meet or even see trade.

You are right that it is a 'feel' of the market and it requires 'chart time', and I apologize as my post seems pretty insulting which it wasn't meant to be. I am tired of reading thread posts with the following:

"Indicators are the past..." and finish it with "...Volume is the predictor" OR "...Cumulative Delta is the predictor" OR "...Market Profile setups are the clear predictor" OR ...............

I guess we are in agreement. The only real indicator as PandaWarrior has named himself in gratitude is the person behind the mouse.

Lornz and you may have a special gift and that is great to share that, so please accept my apologies. But if you are given a block of stone to chisel from, people will come up with 10,000 ways to do it and none of them 'right'.

I am happy you can hit those long runs. Something I hope to aspire to! I just remember when I would trade trend, I would be up on my account and then give it all back because I didn't know when to stop! haha....

That all comes with exp. in my opinion which is something you point out!!!

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 Zwaen 
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Hello,


When reading your posts this reminded me of some experiences I had watching the eurodollar.


This is because there were a number of times when I had the following experience that I relatively “ certain” “ knew” price was going to fall or rise for a good move. Because if you watch an instrument live for several months you “ feel” that the candles and waves are more bearish or bullish behaving than ‘normal’.


The clues I could see it were just the way the candles were formed. You can see the candles get more “ jumpy” and you “ see and feel” that the downticks are made far easier /faster than the upticks ( in bearish case/short).



It is just that because I am not that experienced I am waiting like a good boy for a pullback. This while your inner voice also says “ there ain’t going to be a pullback” and just sell, it is falling now, the later you jump in the riskier it will be. Perfect pattern or not, this is just going down.


Of course, there is a good possibility is that I think I can feel those instances, but reality is different because my mind will filter out the times I’m wrong. I dare not to put real money in this ‘ feeling’ because there is no statistical backup for it. So this is maybe something I have to note down every time I think it will happen to see the actual results.


Is this what you are meaning or totally not?

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 lancelottrader 
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bluemele View Post
Nope that is definitely not me, nor anyone I have yet to meet or even see trade.

I am happy you can hit those long runs. Something I hope to aspire to! I just remember when I would trade trend, I would be up on my account and then give it all back because I didn't know when to stop! haha....

That all comes with exp. in my opinion which is something you point out!!!

Being I have lurked on here for a bit...I have read several of your posts and I definitely respect your opinion. As far as hitting the Home runs, that is fairly new for me. My prevalent style is scalping. I wouldn't consider these examples I gave "Trend Trades." They are more momentum moves that I follow closely with a manual trailing stop or a tight Ninja ATM strategy. Generally a 7 tick move against me and I'm out, but if I sense the move is a quick pullback because the price just bounced off a minor support or resistance level (but it still has some juice on it), I may withstand a 10 tick pullback, but that's pretty much it. Also, I try to move myself to breakeven as soon as possible. If I scratch a few trades, I'm ok with that.

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 lancelottrader 
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Zwaen View Post
Hello,


When reading your posts this reminded me of some experiences I had watching the eurodollar.


This is because there were a number of times when I had the following experience that I relatively “ certain” “ knew” price was going to fall or rise for a good move. Because if you watch an instrument live for several months you “ feel” that the candles and waves are more bearish or bullish behaving than ‘normal’.


The clues I could see it were just the way the candles were formed. You can see the candles get more “ jumpy” and you “ see and feel” that the downticks are made far easier /faster than the upticks ( in bearish case/short).



It is just that because I am not that experienced I am waiting like a good boy for a pullback. This while your inner voice also says “ there ain’t going to be a pullback” and just sell, it is falling now, the later you jump in the riskier it will be. Perfect pattern or not, this is just going down.


Of course, there is a good possibility is that I think I can feel those instances, but reality is different because my mind will filter out the times I’m wrong. I dare not to put real money in this ‘ feeling’ because there is no statistical backup for it. So this is maybe something I have to note down every time I think it will happen to see the actual results.


Is this what you are meaning or totally not?

Yes, I think you are giving some great examples of what I'm writing about. I traded the euro/usd (Forex) almost exclusively for 3 years..watching it every trading day from about 9 am est untill 12 pm est. I got to know it real well and how it moved . For example, if you were to watch it around 11 am est, on many days the price would suddenly start accelerating. I would watch my chart and also my Broker Panel. You could see it really start to race. Now I would see that it would race up (or down ) depending on direction to the next level of price congestion..which my software would draw those areas..in real time. So, one technique I'd use was to enter 5 to 10 ticks away from the price congestion area..and if it failed to breakthrough..exit with my small profit. If it broke through, sometimes there would be a 20 to 50 pip move in less than 5 minutes. Now if the breakthrough occured at 9:10 am and there was very little price acceleration, I would not enter. More than likely, the breakout would fail. In fact, you could often win a small profit by taking the opposite direction. Also 10:40 am est often yields a big move in euro/usd...Not sure why. I figure 11 am, there is some European market closing, so I get that. But 10:40 is often great too. I have many charts I've saved of euro/usd with great 11 am and 10:40 moves. Anyhow, I know this is the Index Futures forum, so I don't want to get too far off track. I do see some amazing moves on TF at 3:45 pm est as well. Traders closing out their positions for the day causes some nice 'Runners." I guess the bottom line is if you watch these instruments long enough, you can start recognizing some high probability patterns. Then trading these patterns and starting to win consistently will help with the fear and hesitation involved in pulling the trigger.

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 PandaWarrior 
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lancelottrader View Post
Yes, I think you are giving some great examples of what I'm writing about. I traded the euro/usd (Forex) almost exclusively for 3 years..watching it every trading day from about 9 am est untill 12 pm est.

I got to know it real well and how it moved . For example, if you were to watch it around 11 am est, on many days the price would suddenly start accelerating. I would watch my chart and also my Broker Panel. You could see it really start to race. Now I would see that it would race up (or down ) depending on direction to the next level of price congestion..which my software would draw those areas..in real time.

So, one technique I'd use was to enter 5 to 10 ticks away from the price congestion area..and if it failed to breakthrough..exit with my small profit. If it broke through, sometimes there would be a 20 to 50 pip move in less than 5 minutes. Now if the breakthrough occured at 9:10 am and there was very little price acceleration, I would not enter. More than likely, the breakout would fail. In fact, you could often win a small profit by taking the opposite direction. Also 10:40 am est often yields a big move in euro/usd...Not sure why. I figure 11 am, there is some European market closing, so I get that. But 10:40 is often great too. I have many charts I've saved of euro/usd with great 11 am and 10:40 moves.

Anyhow, I know this is the Index Futures forum, so I don't want to get too far off track. I do see some amazing moves on TF at 3:45 pm est as well. Traders closing out their positions for the day causes some nice 'Runners." I guess the bottom line is if you watch these instruments long enough, you can start recognizing some high probability patterns. Then trading these patterns and starting to win consistently will help with the fear and hesitation involved in pulling the trigger.

Lancelottrader, I was wondering if you could break your paragraphs up a bit kinda like I did on the most recent one. The unbroken paragraphs make it difficult for me to read and I think you have something worth reading. To be honest, I generally skip paragraphs with more than 3-4 sentences, even when I write them.....but I've made forced myself to read yours at least up to this point.

Don't take offense at my request, you write the way I talk and write. But I force myself to break my paragraphs apart once I've written them.....makes it easier for me to read what I've written.

Thanks for the thread, I've enjoyed it so far.

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 lancelottrader 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Lancelottrader, I was wondering if you could break your paragraphs up a bit kinda like I did on the most recent one. The unbroken paragraphs make it difficult for me to read and I think you have something worth reading. To be honest, I generally skip paragraphs with more than 3-4 sentences, even when I write them.....but I've made forced myself to read yours at least up to this point.

Don't take offense at my request, you write the way I talk and write. But I force myself to break my paragraphs apart once I've written them.....makes it easier for me to read what I've written.

Thanks for the thread, I've enjoyed it so far.

Thanks for the suggestion...I see what you mean. Will do that next time.

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 shah1266 
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how much for those indicators?

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 lancelottrader 
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shah1266 View Post
how much for those indicators?

I subscribe to a couple of different one's and then I've kind of tweaked them to work on certain timeframes...Between the two, I'm probably spending about $150 a month. I could probably get with the Ninja programmers and replicate them pretty close, but I haven't taken the time to look into it. They're more of a visual and psychological aid than anything else. If the market conditions aren't there, they'll just fire off a lot of useless signals..but when my "edge", shows up, they work quite well...so honestly, I can't really reccomend them to anyone at this point..because you could misuse them and end up losing lots of trades.

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 lancelottrader 
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After losing 9 ticks on my first CL trade today, I made a good comeback with this one on TF for close to 40 ticks. Didn't get out till it hit my trail dots. Sometimes I find it hard to watch both TF and CL and then be able to decide which one to take. I have a couple of monitors but I still find it hard.

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 lancelottrader 
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I'm embarrassed to even say what happened to me today...I totally lost control of my emotions and discipline. First I must admit I went to a Halloween part last night and drank way too much Red wine. I knew I was way too hungover to trade properly..but my ego said, "Ok, just trade 1 contract of TF." So I tried drinking a little extra coffee to sharpen up...this only made me feel hungover and..anxious. Somehow by 2pm, I was over $350 down. Normally I would have walked away and chalked it up to a bad day. Somehow I started becoming unhinged and I put on a 5 contract trade..even though the market wasn't looking too great...Lost 10 ticks..now $850 down. Like a maniac I put on 10 contracts and quickly lose 10 more ticks. Now minus $1850.00, I take another 10 contract trade and bail out when I'm 5 ticks up. So I make only $500 back. Finally, I summoned the strength to walk away from my computer. The lesson here is obvious..Never trade when you know you are impaired in some way. I was hungover and caffeinated and all my rules and discipline flew out the window. Believe me folks, this hasn't happened to me in years. I'm still in shock.. I am not a novice at this...Anyhow..this thread is supposed to be about catching runners on TF...Here's the one I should have waited for..in the final 3 minutes of today's US stock market session. I'm usually pretty good at catching stuff like this..but I had already walked away from the PC.

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 Big Mike 
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Good job posting on a tough day.

Now the hard part: what have you learned from today? Time will tell.

Mike

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 kbit 
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lancelottrader View Post
I'm embarrassed to even say what happened to me today...I totally lost control of my emotions and discipline. First I must admit I went to a Halloween part last night and drank way too much Red wine. I knew I was way too hungover to trade properly..but my ego said, "Ok, just trade 1 contract of TF." So I tried drinking a little extra coffee to sharpen up...this only made me feel hungover and..anxious. Somehow by 2pm, I was over $350 down. Normally I would have walked away and chalked it up to a bad day. Somehow I started becoming unhinged and I put on a 5 contract trade..even though the market wasn't looking too great...Lost 10 ticks..now $850 down. Like a maniac I put on 10 contracts and quickly lose 10 more ticks. Now minus $1850.00, I take another 10 contract trade and bail out when I'm 5 ticks up. So I make only $500 back. Finally, I summoned the strength to walk away from my computer. The lesson here is obvious..Never trade when you know you are impaired in some way. I was hungover and caffeinated and all my rules and discipline flew out the window. Believe me folks, this hasn't happened to me in years. I'm still in shock.. I am not a novice at this...Anyhow..this thread is supposed to be about catching runners on TF...Here's the one I should have waited for..in the final 3 minutes of today's US stock market session. I'm usually pretty good at catching stuff like this..but I had already walked away from the PC.

Sorry to hear that, we've all been there...it sucks. As long as you remember it in the future you'll be ok

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 lancelottrader 
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kbit View Post
Sorry to hear that, we've all been there...it sucks. As long as you remember it in the future you'll be ok

Thanks..I going to do everything in my power to make sure I don't do this again. It's not so much the money I lost that bothers me, but the fact I lost control of myself.. after all these years of trading. I appreciate your comment.

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 lancelottrader 
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Big Mike View Post
Good job posting on a tough day.

Now the hard part: what have you learned from today? Time will tell.

Mike

I've learned that it's not only the market conditions that must be determined, but also my personal state of mind and physiology. I thought I was good enough where being hungover wouldn't affect me so much . I also made sure after this incident to further clarify my rules such as..Evaluating my frame of mind before any trading. If I'm feeling sleepy, agitated, overly anxious (or hungover)..I will stay out. This seems quite obvious, but I slipped up as if I was a total novice and now I need to remind myself of these things .
If I get a compulsion to greatly up my Contract size, I will definitely walk away..instead of behaving like a Degenerate gambler trying to recoup his losses .
And of course, I will restrain myself from taking a trade unless my criteria for entry is met 100%. I went into a couple of silly impulsive trades today as well. Thanks for your comment Mike.

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 lancelottrader 
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Had some nice setups this morning right after the opening bell. Saw a pretty strong surge down..waited for a pullback on my 1 minute chart to the 10 period ema..then saw it heading back down and I jumped in...Stayed in till my dots signaled me out..Almost 4 TF points . Then, only a few minutes later I saw the price breaking through a support level my indicators had drawn earlier..I jumped the gun a little and lost 7 ticks on a quick pullback..but then re-entered and rode this one down for another 40 ticks..again staying in untill my trailing stop dots got me out..Also was using a 9 tick autotrail Ninja ATM in case price moved too fast for me to manually exit.. Love days like this.

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 bluemele 
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How did you do yesterday in the MONSTER MASH at the opening bell?

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oscarblank
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lancelottrader View Post
I'm embarrassed to even say what happened to me today...I totally lost control of my emotions and discipline. First I must admit I went to a Halloween part last night and drank way too much Red wine. I knew I was way too hungover to trade properly..but my ego said, "Ok, just trade 1 contract of TF." So I tried drinking a little extra coffee to sharpen up...this only made me feel hungover and..anxious. Somehow by 2pm, I was over $350 down. Normally I would have walked away and chalked it up to a bad day. Somehow I started becoming unhinged and I put on a 5 contract trade..even though the market wasn't looking too great...Lost 10 ticks..now $850 down. Like a maniac I put on 10 contracts and quickly lose 10 more ticks. Now minus $1850.00, I take another 10 contract trade and bail out when I'm 5 ticks up. So I make only $500 back. Finally, I summoned the strength to walk away from my computer. The lesson here is obvious..Never trade when you know you are impaired in some way. I was hungover and caffeinated and all my rules and discipline flew out the window. Believe me folks, this hasn't happened to me in years. I'm still in shock.. I am not a novice at this...Anyhow..this thread is supposed to be about catching runners on TF...Here's the one I should have waited for..in the final 3 minutes of today's US stock market session. I'm usually pretty good at catching stuff like this..but I had already walked away from the PC.

Thanks for sharing. Helpful to hear I'm not the only one messing up like that.

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 lancelottrader 
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bluemele View Post
How did you do yesterday in the MONSTER MASH at the opening bell?

Good question. I was watching my YM chart at the same time..and I thought TF would make a nice nosedive..but instead it made some choppy surges...I lost 12 ticks in the first 30 minutes of the open...Decided I didn't like the price action and went on Demo. After I lost a few on that, I knew that I had made the right choice. I was watching around 1 pm est and went back live and caught 10 ticks on a pretty good move. I was a bit jumpy so I got out a bit earlier than I should.

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 bluemele 
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There was a nice short later in the day, but boy, who knew... I guess someone did.

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 lancelottrader 
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The opening US session was rather bumpy for TF and I lost 12 ticks on my first Trade. I noticed CL was very strong, so I jumped into a move there and made back some ticks. Then started watching TF again around 3:00 Pm est . I saw some downward volatility start picking up and I noticed the Dow started plummeting. I hesitated and missed the first wave down in TF at about 3:13. So less than 10 minutes later, I saw the price start dancing around a mild support level , which my software had drawn. I was also watching the dow continue down strongly and I jumped in at about 736 and stayed in untill my trailing stop dots got breached at 729.5 This all happened in about 5 minutes. To me, this is the type of trades I wait for. It's all about momentum..When price is moving slow and there is no volatility, it's just a guessing game for me...Maybe it will go up, maybe it will go down. But with a trade like this, it's pretty obvious which way it's going.. But to wait for these moments takes huge amounts of discipline, which I don't always have. Getting better though.

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 lancelottrader 
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I've had a rule for a few weeks that says after a 20 tick drawdown for the day, I'm done live trading. So today after losing 20 ticks, I switched to SIM and must have made over 75 ticks. These two beauties in the charts show the Stock index meltdown at around 12:15 pm. I think mathematically for any system to work out, you need to take ALL high probability trades that meet your edge or criteria in a given session. Often I will quit live too soon and then make huge profits on SIM. Also, I quit when I'm 20 ticks down and like today miss out on some good opportunities.

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Hey lanceolot,

How has the trading been going since your last post?

I just finnish reading this thread because your style and approach to trading is very simular to mine.

I traded not too long ago depending heavely on indicators, and have concluded that a simple approach based on price movement is best.

Anyways, look forward to hear how things have been going.

Cheers Float

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 lancelottrader 
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float View Post
Hey lanceolot,

How has the trading been going since your last post?

I just finnish reading this thread because your style and approach to trading is very simular to mine.

I traded not too long ago depending heavely on indicators, and have concluded that a simple approach based on price movement is best.

Anyways, look forward to hear how things have been going.

Cheers Float

Hi there. Thanks for asking.. Things have been getting better and better. I have been focusing a little more on Crude Oil lately since I have been seeing much bigger moves in it lately. It seems the best times to catch some of these moves are at 9 am EST, between 9:30 and 9:45 am EST..and 11 am est is often a great time. Around 2 to 2:30 PM is also good . The Euro (6E ) often makes some nice pushes at 11 am as well. Strangely enough, I rarely see anyone ever mention the 11 am moves on most Forums. Guess I should kind of keep that tidbit to myself. My chart set up has definitely helped keep me in some runners, that I'm sure I would have exited early without. I really don't see how everyone likes to trade CL with a 5 minute chart. 5 minutes seems like an eternity to me with something that moves as fast as oil. Anyhow, my exit strategy is either to exit when the algorithmic trailing stop dots are breached..or if I feel it is breaking through more price levels, I will wait untill the black spine is penetrated. The charts below show examples of both types of exits. By the way, how is your trading going?

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 madLyfe 
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lancelottrader View Post
Hi there. Thanks for asking.. Things have been getting better and better. I have been focusing a little more on Crude Oil lately since I have been seeing much bigger moves in it lately. It seems the best times to catch some of these moves are at 9 am EST, between 9:30 and 9:45 am EST..and 11 am est is often a great time. Around 2 to 2:30 PM is also good . The Euro (6E ) often makes some nice pushes at 11 am as well. Strangely enough, I rarely see anyone ever mention the 11 am moves on most Forums. Guess I should kind of keep that tidbit to myself. My chart set up has definitely helped keep me in some runners, that I'm sure I would have exited early without. I really don't see how everyone likes to trade CL with a 5 minute chart. 5 minutes seems like an eternity to me with something that moves as fast as oil. Anyhow, my exit strategy is either to exit when the algorithmic trailing stop dots are breached..or if I feel it is breaking through more price levels, I will wait untill the black spine is penetrated. The charts below show examples of both types of exits. By the way, how is your trading going?

the 6E moves around that time because that is when they are starting to close for the day.. across the pond..

dont believe anything you hear and only half of what you see

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 lancelottrader 
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I have been recording my trading sessions on using the Screen Movie Studio desktop screen recording program and I've found it to be very useful . I do a constant commentary while watching the CL market and announce when I see a viable setup occuring. I have noticed when I watch it back, I can see some patterns consistently emerging before a big move takes off in Oil. Here's kind of what my screen looks like when Oil is about to make a strong push. I reccomend this to traders to be able to review their trades. I record myself stating why I should enter, why I should hold the trade or exit, what the prevailing market conditions are (choppy, trending, chaotic or volatile). I do constant "What-if" scenarios.

In other words I look at potential entries, long or short, and say what additional conditions must be met if that entry price is reached. I like to see what the dollar index and the dow are doing, what's the volume like..along with my signals generated from my software.

By watching the videos, I can see when all the factors come together that result in a high probability trade. I save the videos, of course, on a portable hard drive, to preserve disk space on my PC.

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 lancelottrader 
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Nice move yesterday during Bernanke's speech. Cl started to dive a couple of minutes into the speech, then did a nice quick 100 tick reversal. The charts below show the move from the 2 range and 5 range perspective. I will sometimes take my 2 range signal (the break of the thick black spine) before the 5 range gives me a signal (the color change and ema crossover combo). Sometimes I ride out the trade and use the exit signal from the 5 range..in this case a 100 tick ride.

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 lancelottrader 
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Non farm created lots of opportunity today.

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 lancelottrader 
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Here's some trades I took today.

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 lancelottrader 
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The funny thing is...for a long time I wasn't really following my own system and it's rules completely. The rules were to enter at certain "hotzone " times of the day in conjunction with several other indicators lining up ..stops generally kept at no more than 10 ticks..and to ride out the trade untill my software gave me an exit signal. The exits are a breach of the black spine on my 2 range chart..or a an exit signal on my 5 range. Instead, I was getting out of a lot of trades at 10 ticks..or whenever I felt the price had gone far enough. The truth is, you never can tell how far it will go. So I started forcing myself to stay in until the exit signals came from the software. Now, I'm starting to get 40 - 100 tick moves on almost a daily basis. Yes, sometimes I'm up 20 ticks and I end up breaking even..but the upside is catching some huge moves. Instead of being happy with a 50 tick week, I have had a few 200- 300 tick weeks..just by following my system. Discipline is truly the key.

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 trvlntrdr 
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Well, Lancellot I would like to say thanks for producing this thread for several reasons, 1) you give me encouragement that a trader can develop into a consistently profitable trader 2) you stuck with the thread for months 3) you didnt really change your method much, so we can see that you have found a good system over time and 4) the honesty to post your errors that remind us all that discipline is a daily requirement for all traders, no matter how successful---one can not lose discipline!

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 lancelottrader 
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trvlntrdr View Post
Well, Lancellot I would like to say thanks for producing this thread for several reasons, 1) you give me encouragement that a trader can develop into a consistently profitable trader 2) you stuck with the thread for months 3) you didnt really change your method much, so we can see that you have found a good system over time and 4) the honesty to post your errors that remind us all that discipline is a daily requirement for all traders, no matter how successful---one can not lose discipline!

Thanks for the comments. The "discipline" thing has been written about a ton of times, but in my case, it's been my biggest obstacle. Obviously, one needs to find a reasonable system...and, most importantly, understand the market conditions in which that system works best in. My system works best when there is directional momentum. That happens towards the opening of a market..3 to 5 minutes after a news release, and at certain times I have seen statistically to yield a big move. I have sincerely believed for a while my system can produce results..unfortunately I have often failed to follow it.
Why? The first emotion that I succumb to is Temptation. The market has numerous fakeouts and traps every day. This is no accident. The Pro's know how to lure you into a trade by making it look like a sure thing. Discipline is the only thing that can keep me out of a trade untill everything in my system lines up. Unfortunately I have failed in this respect many times.

The second big obstacle is fear of loss. When you have been killed as many times as I have trading, it's easy to want to bail out of trade when you're only a few ticks up..or down. I now have to make a commitment to stay in a trade until the market takes me out..not what I think my target should be. It's much easier said then done. On demo, no problem. Live, much harder..but I'm doing it...Finally, I'm really riding out some great moves. But I'm always tempted to bail when I'm up 10 ticks or so.

Another undisciplined issue was abandoning my system after some consecutive losses and doing the revenge trade thing. I now record my commentary while trading, always giving feedback on my emotional state. If I notice that feeling coming on, I walk away. That takes discipline. I realized I can get compulsive and keep coming back to the PC like some deranged Vegas Gambler. It's horrible. My heart pounds, I get sweaty..my blood pressure would go through the roof. It's hard to explain but the results are usually disasterous . I'll pile on double or triple the contracts I usually trade and go into some stupid scalps trying to make it all back in one or two trades. I can never let that happen again.
I decided if I was going to fail, it was going to be because my system sucked. That I can live with. But to fail, after all these years and time and money spent at this..because I couldn't control myself or follow my rules..then that, would be truly sad and pathetic.

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 trvlntrdr 
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Wise words. I suspect few traders have avoided those emotional issues. Probably even the real pros in firms struggle with them. I notice almost every time I get excited about a trade it turns out badly. Strangely I am not a real emotional person and not prone to gambling. (Otherwise I couldnt live in Reno!) I need to keep reminding myself of the facts you mention and make sure I develop a system that gives me minimal "wriggle room" to get out of my system. Otherwise I cant determine if the system is the problem or my emotion. Journaling my frame of mind or attitude sounds like a good idea.
Thanks Again!

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 wrbtrader 
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lancelottrader View Post
I have been recording my trading sessions on using the Screen Movie Studio desktop screen recording program and I've found it to be very useful . I do a constant commentary while watching the CL market and announce when I see a viable setup occuring. I have noticed when I watch it back, I can see some patterns consistently emerging before a big move takes off in Oil. Here's kind of what my screen looks like when Oil is about to make a strong push. I reccomend this to traders to be able to review their trades. I record myself stating why I should enter, why I should hold the trade or exit, what the prevailing market conditions are (choppy, trending, chaotic or volatile). I do constant "What-if" scenarios...

This is one of the best self-learning tools and wish more traders would do such.

You recording only one monitor or multiple monitors ?

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 lancelottrader 
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wrbtrader View Post
This is one of the best self-learning tools and wish more traders would do such.

You recording only one monitor or multiple monitors ?

I use two monitors while trading, but most all my charts and indicators are on 1 monitor. The other monitor has a duplicate chart..but in a zoomed out perspective. This is the chart that automatically draws all price congestion areas and support and resistance lines . I like to watch that chart while I'm managing a trade because when it hits the price congestion areas, I can expect price to bounce. Now as long as price stays within the parameters of my Indicators/moving averages, I can ride it out. But it's nice to understand why the price is bouncing. I call these areas "Speed bumps". So, to answer your question, I am only recording the one monitor that has all the primary charts on it. Mainly cause I haven't figured out how to record both monitors..

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 lancelottrader 
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Started out today nicely with this 40 tick pop a few minutes ago.

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 ThatManFromTexas 
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lancelottrader View Post
Started out today nicely with this 40 tick pop a few minutes ago.

@lancelottrader

I love the way you black out the indicator name ... thank you for sharing ... too funny...

I'm just a simple man trading a simple plan.

My daddy always said, "Every day above ground is a good day!"
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 lancelottrader 
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@lancelottrader

I love the way you black out the indicator name ... thank you for sharing ... too funny...

It's not like it's a big secret..Just trying to show I'm not promoting anything. People can come up with their own moving averages and get the same idea. Nothing magical about mine.. I just don't want people to think I'm a shill for the companies whose indicators I use.

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 lancelottrader 
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Nice 110 tick move to start off the day.

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 lancelottrader 
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Here's a short video demonstrating my CL runner system.


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 lancelottrader 
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Days like today are not conducive to catching bigger moves. Nothing has any real follow through. The most important thing is to be able to recognize early on the type of market conditions that are prevailing on a particular day. I was up on several trades 15 or 20 ticks, but tried to stay in longer. Just ended up giving up a lot of profit. This is a day for smaller targets and more of a scalping approach. Determining market conditions before it's too late is probably the hardest thing about trading. Matching the wrong strategy to those conditions does not work.

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 lancelottrader 
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Today is the type of day where my system works best. When the volume is high and the momentum is strong, my signals produce many great runners. The trick is to have the courage to keep taking good entries. On this type of day, I play "offence." I take the money the market is handing me. The last two days were choppy and lousy..and those are the days to play "defense". In other words take less trades..or take smaller scalps. Today, I ended up about 120 ticks.

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 lancelottrader 
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A video of a trade taken during this morning's session. I now record all my live sessions.


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 lancelottrader 
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Very fast drop from today.


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 Paul L 
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lancelottrader View Post
Today is the type of day where my system works best. When the volume is high and the momentum is strong, my signals produce many great runners. The trick is to have the courage to keep taking good entries. On this type of day, I play "offence." I take the money the market is handing me. The last two days were choppy and lousy..and those are the days to play "defense". In other words take less trades..or take smaller scalps. Today, I ended up about 120 ticks.

Yeah but how do you know what kind of day its going to be??

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 lancelottrader 
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Paul L View Post
Yeah but how do you know what kind of day its going to be??

That's the million dollar question, right there.. I have found there are certain clues that can give you a slight edge. For example, this week we had a Monday with no major economic releases. I have noticed often a Monday with no real news can be choppy..and this one was no exception. Yes, a 300 tick move came out of nowhere later in the afternoon due to a statement by the Saudi's, but the earlier part of the session sucked.
Yesterday we had fairly light volume and no major news and again it was choppy. Also, the 9 am est opening push can give clues. I'll usually take a signal at that time if it meets my parameters. If the push yields a fast big move, I can expect maybe a few other volatile moves during the session..which usually occur at similar times each day. I call these times hotzones and I've mentioned in previous posts when they are most likely to occur. If the 9am untill 9:20 time is choppy, then we may see a prolonged period of this. especially if no major news is coming out at 10.
Today, I took a few trades around the 9am area and lost maybe 10 ticks altogether, but then I nailed the 54 tick move. Then it became quite obvious the session was going to have some major moves. We had things going on in the oil market driving the price down, news at 8:30, news at 10 am and crude oil inventories. Lots of volume and lots of big players. My time and sales shows all orders over 10 contracts and if you see lots of large orders, you can expect big moves. Also, my software on my 2 range chart has vertical lines that form boxes. When these boxes get extremely wide, I know there is lots of momentum going on. Also, from watching price move for several hours a day, I have developed a feel for it.

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 Big Mike 
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 0bl1vion 
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This is a great thread..but I couldn't get through all of it...paragraphs, folks...paragraphs.

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 lancelottrader 
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Horribly confusing price action around the open of CL today. Think maybe a new chaotic algo was being run today ..whose only intention was to make people lose regardless of whether they were long or short. LoL

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 lancelottrader 
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After watching my recorded sessions and looking at my trading journal for the last several weeks, it has become obvious that I have made some mistakes. Yes, on those strong days..where price makes several vertical pushes..I do great. But there are many days where the price action is very "wiggly". Yes, it may go from point A to point B..but it does so in a confusing bumpy fashion. Those are the days I do not do well.

I went on Ninja Market replay and started replaying those choppy days that I failed on..and I watched in some higher timeframes along with my usual ones. I started seeing the context of the market differently and realized that the "wiggling" was more obvious on my lower timeframes. My point is I was not paying enough attention to the higher timeframes. I was focused mainly on my 2 range and 5 range charts. I still think they're great to time in entries and they work phenomenal on those strong trending days.

But even just watching a 1 minute and 5 minute, I got a totally different perspective as far as overall trend goes. Now, I look at them when doing my initial analysis, but I haven't been watching them that closely while trading.. especially with my indicators on them. So even though my 2 range on a choppy day might have me exiting and losing, the higher time frame showed the target was still going to be reached, but in a more chaotic way. Again, at my level this should be obvious, but I guess we can all get caught up in missing the bigger picture. And as long as I can keep my stops small, I will be using the higher timeframes for trend perspective more this week. I will report at the end of the week..what my results are.

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 lancelottrader 
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Video of today's trades. I go into much more detail on the system and entry criteria here.


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 Big Mike 
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Do you have any affiliation whatsoever with "Logical Forex" indicators?

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 lancelottrader 
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Big Mike View Post
Do you have any affiliation whatsoever with "Logical Forex" indicators?

Mike

No, absolutely not. Unfortunately, when you use their indicators on any other timeframe than a 1 range chart, it produces this banner thats shows up saying" they work best on a 1 range setting." As you may have seem in my past posts, I always try to blot out these banners and hide them. However, when making a video, I do not know how to blot them out. So, not promoting them, but no longer hiding them..since I get PMs asking what I use. My video explains a lot of this.

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 Ruffcut 
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lancelottrader View Post
Video of today's trades. I go into much more detail on the system and entry criteria here.

Great Video. Well explained, insightful and inspiring. Thanks

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bjulian
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Appreciate the video as well as your candor.

Hang in there. Failure is not an option. You have to find a method that works for you.

I found one that works for me. It took a few years and a lot of "tuition" but I found it.

The reason I've read your thread is because I'm looking for an intra-day methodology that I can be successful with. My method is swing trading so I have a lot of time as I wait for my trades to play out.

Best of luck to you.

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 lancelottrader 
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bjulian View Post
Appreciate the video as well as your candor.

Hang in there. Failure is not an option. You have to find a method that works for you.

I found one that works for me. It took a few years and a lot of "tuition" but I found it.

The reason I've read your thread is because I'm looking for an intra-day methodology that I can be successful with. My method is swing trading so I have a lot of time as I wait for my trades to play out.

Best of luck to you.

Thank you very much. Great advice. Glad you're doing good.

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 goldfish 
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lancelottrader View Post
Video of today's trades. I go into much more detail on the system and entry criteria here.


Lance,

I watched all of your charts and videos, this is the best video, please keep them coming.

Thanks

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 lancelottrader 
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goldfish View Post
Lance,

I watched all of your charts and videos, this is the best video, please keep them coming.

Thanks

Thank you for your nice comment. I think I will make a few more.

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 HighRise1202 
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Thanks!

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 lancelottrader 
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From today's session:


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 lancelottrader 
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Lot's of strength in CL again today. I wish I had stayed in the big 9:45 am est 150+ tick move...It stayed in my Black spine the whole way. My time and sales told me there was a lot of big orders coming in. I have it set to show orders only over 10 contracts and I saw big one's coming in for most of this morning. That should have given me the clue to stay in the moves longer. I still had a great day, but it could have been phenomenal.

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 goldfish 
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lancelottrader View Post
From today's session:


lancelottrader,

Thank you for this great video and the trading tips on CL and TF.
Good to see you trading TF again besides CL

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 lancelottrader 
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goldfish View Post
lancelottrader,

Thank you for this great video and the trading tips on CL and TF.
Good to see you trading TF again besides CL

Thanks. I think I get better results now ..watching a couple of instruments. When I just watch oil, I can get tempted into a lot of choppy, spiky moves on those days where the price action is chaotic. Some days TF makes some nice moves. So when I watch them, I pick for any particular moment which one is making a strong surging move..and jump into that. That way I'm only taking the absolute best trades in terms of momentum, speed and strength. Then it's a matter of adjusting how tight or loose my trail is.

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 lancelottrader 
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Summary of today's trades.


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toucan94506
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lancelottrader View Post
Thanks. I think I get better results now ..watching a couple of instruments. When I just watch oil, I can get tempted into a lot of choppy, spiky moves on those days where the price action is chaotic. Some days TF makes some nice moves. So when I watch them, I pick for any particular moment which one is making a strong surging move..and jump into that. That way I'm only taking the absolute best trades in terms of momentum, speed and strength. Then it's a matter of adjusting how tight or loose my trail is.

Lancelotttrader: I trade several different futures including currencies, indexes, crude and natural gas. This process is not for everyone, but I have found watching several different groups of symbols, allows me to pick/choose which symbol's price action matches my trading style at any given time. Currencies moved better during the summer and lately indexes are trending more... and of course crude and natural gas seem to run to their own beat.

cheers

toucan

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 wrbtrader 
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toucan94506 View Post
Lancelotttrader: I trade several different futures including currencies, indexes, crude and natural gas. This process is not for everyone, but I have found watching several different groups of symbols, allows me to pick/choose which symbol's price action matches my trading style at any given time. Currencies moved better during the summer and lately indexes are trending more... and of course crude and natural gas seem to run to their own beat.

cheers

toucan

I myself have recently converted back to this type of trading tactic to adapt to the low volatility trading conditions in Emini TF futures. Just need some extra monitors or bigger monitors. Simply, instead of just concentrating on Emini TF futures...I now trade Oil CL futures, EuroFX 6E futures during periods when Emini TF usually doesn't produce trade opportunities.

A little extra work but worth it by the end of day. Trading different trading instruments also has the benefit of helping with that "market context" and seeing the "big picture" that we sometimes get confused about when we get too focus on one type of price action.

Never get married to a specific trading instrument when there are better trade opportunities elsewhere because to goal is to be profitable.

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toucan94506
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wrbtrader View Post
I myself have recently converted back to this type of trading tactic to adapt to the low volatility trading conditions in Emini TF futures. Just need some extra monitors or bigger monitors. Simply, instead of just concentrating on Emini TF futures...I now trade Oil CL futures, EuroFX 6E futures during periods when Emini TF usually doesn't produce trade opportunities.

A little extra work but worth it by the end of day. Trading different trading instruments also has the benefit of helping with that "market context" and seeing the "big picture" that we sometimes get confused about when we get too focus on one type of price action.

Never get married to a specific trading instrument when there are better trade opportunities elsewhere because to goal is to be profitable.

wrbtrader.... couldn't agree more on the market context and big picture. It also prolongs the "sweet spot" part of the trading day for each group. For example, I tend to trade currency futures the first 2 hours after the futures open, then trade index futuress for 1-2 hours after the stock market open.... and as always trade crude/natural gas whenever they move.

cheers

toucan

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 lancelottrader 
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Very exciting and volatile day with some great moves. I had some Spine Runners on CL and TF . Also, I rode out a couple of trades using my 5 Range Rampage charts, which allows for a little more Bounce than my 2 range Spine moves. This is the type of day where my system can make a good deal of money. This is my 10th winning day in a row..which is something of a record for me. I have hit my "Tier 1 " goal for all 10 days so I feel things are progressing.

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 lancelottrader 
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Another biggie from today. 100 tick move on CL at around 12 est this afternoon. 5 range keeps me in the trade for the whole ride...

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MajorMagnuM
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What you say about trading cl in the first moments of our post 70 video, about direct move form a to b etc, was exactly what hit me the first time i watched a UK oil chart!Ty for posting, i would really like to get to know more about oil trading

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 lancelottrader 
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MajorMagnuM View Post
What you say about trading cl in the first moments of our post 70 video, about direct move form a to b etc, was exactly what hit me the first time i watched a UK oil chart!Ty for posting, i would really like to get to know more about oil trading

Hi there. Oil moves stronger and faster than almost any instrument out there. If you're in the UK, you want to be watching it mainly from 2:00 pm GMT till about 4:00. That's when you'll see most of the action. I would just watch the price action on it for a few days.. Then paper trade it untill you really have a handle on it. It is a very rewarding instrument to trade..but also very dangerous and tricky.

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 djkiwi 
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lancelottrader View Post
Hi there. Oil moves stronger and faster than almost any instrument out there. If you're in the UK, you want to be watching it mainly from 2:00 pm GMT till about 4:00. That's when you'll see most of the action. I would just watch the price action on it for a few days.. Then paper trade it untill you really have a handle on it. It is a very rewarding instrument to trade..but also very dangerous and tricky.

Hi Lance, interesting thread. As an additional point I would say oil does move stronger and faster than almost any instrument (second to gold though in my study). Also interesting to note is the actual size of the move is no different to the resident slug (ES).

So what I'm saying CL also has the same probability of making the same 100 tick move as ES only it will do it stronger and faster as you suggest. For this reason I use exactly the same swing targets on oil as ES. The only difference is if you take the ES trade prepare to sit in it for days.

There is some research here about it here if interested.



Cheers
DJ

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 lancelottrader 
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Video of determining which strategy to employ for trade management using examples from today's moves.


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 fasttraxs 
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lancelottrader View Post
Video of determining which strategy to employ for trade management using examples from today's moves.


Hi
Thank you for posting video.
You mention Hot zone times. Can you explain more on this.

Thanks

Fasttraxs

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 lancelottrader 
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fasttraxs View Post
Hi
Thank you for posting video.
You mention Hot zone times. Can you explain more on this.

Thanks

Fasttraxs

For each instrument, there are key times of the Trading session where historic data will show on various chart timeframes..that price tends to make moves. I generally mention those times on my videos as when I tend to look for signals. Often you see a push in Crude Oil around 9 am . Also 10 minutes after the US equity session opens, it will often move. Between 10:35 am est and 11 am , it will make some big moves quite frequently as well. I call these Hotzone times and I center most of my trading around these times. Scroll through 6 months of Crude Oil charts and it will become quite obvious.

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 lancelottrader 
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Oil acting rather crazy this AM (9:20 ish est). Going to stay out for a while.

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 HighRise1202 
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lancelottrader View Post
Oil acting rather crazy this AM (9:20 ish est). Going to stay out for a while.

Also, it's Fed day. Look out.

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 lancelottrader 
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Although I do like a good amount of volatility and momentum, I am finding it better for me to avoid news events such as Crude Oil Inventories and Interest Rate releases. Sometimes I think if I wait 10 minutes or so afterwards, there's some nice moves to be made . But the price action can remain unpredictable and chaotic for longer periods . I found myself 30 ticks down during this morning's session which was absurd since it was obvious that CL was moving erratically (I even mentioned it in my last post !)

Another mistake I will no longer make is playing these high speed breakouts of the low of the day or high of the day. When I used to trade Forex and I'd see the Pound/usd or the pound/yen crash through the highs or lows with high momentum, I would score some great trades. But with Oil, it will do these stop-Running moves that lure you in..and then reverse quickly. Then you figure it's just a bounce and you move your stop..and then it bites you! Lol. I need to remember CL doesn't move like the Pound/Yen..or anything else for that matter.

The good news is I saw a nice move on Gold (yes I've been watching Gold lately too.) and caught a nice 30 tick pop...and around 12:40 I took a Trade on CL as it started moving back up. I decided to set my target and auto trailing stop..and then walked away. I didn't want to watch it. I was happy when I heard "Target filled" and got a 45 tick move. At least I finished up slightly for the day..after my foolish mistakes from earlier.

All in all, learned some good lessons today.

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 lancelottrader 
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From today. Nice session.


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 tihfa 
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lancelottrader View Post
From today. Nice session.

[yt] video[/yt]

hey lance,

tried clicking on video and it said it was private?

tihfa

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 lancelottrader 
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tihfa View Post
hey lance,

tried clicking on video and it said it was private?

tihfa

Sorry about that. I had it on the private youtube setting by accident. I think it should work now.

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 Surly 
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Thanks again for your vids Lancelot - I find them really helpful. The thing I find the most helpful is the ongoing thought process while you are waiting for the trade and then in the trade. These are always the most difficult periods for me - I often find that having a more mechanical way of managing my entry and exit helps quite a bit because it allows me to just breath and wait because I know how I'm going to make the entry/exit decision in advance. Your point about using your pre-analysis to really understand the "terrain" your trade has to travel through on its way to your target is really smart. I try to do this but I am not as "active" in my chart annotation as I could be. Having this work done in advance (by ongoing analysis and annotation) seems like it really helps you stay in a trade.

I read price action and make a judgment about what I call "pace" - the relative directionality or choppiness of a market. I say it has a good pace when price move directionally with few pullbacks and relatively "clean" pullbacks. I say the pace is "bad" or "choppy" when price is not moving cleanly and has a lot of erratic back and forth. This helps me with stop placement and waiting for a trade to hit a target. But I like your use of prior areas of congestion and S/R as tools to help predict or anticipate how choppy a trade might behave once you're in it and waiting for your target.

Thanks again - hope you find the motivation to record more vids - they're def helpful for me.

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 lancelottrader 
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Surly View Post
Thanks again for your vids Lancelot - I find them really helpful. The thing I find the most helpful is the ongoing thought process while you are waiting for the trade and then in the trade. These are always the most difficult periods for me - I often find that having a more mechanical way of managing my entry and exit helps quite a bit because it allows me to just breath and wait because I know how I'm going to make the entry/exit decision in advance. Your point about using your pre-analysis to really understand the "terrain" your trade has to travel through on its way to your target is really smart. I try to do this but I am not as "active" in my chart annotation as I could be. Having this work done in advance (by ongoing analysis and annotation) seems like it really helps you stay in a trade.

I read price action and make a judgment about what I call "pace" - the relative directionality or choppiness of a market. I say it has a good pace when price move directionally with few pullbacks and relatively "clean" pullbacks. I say the pace is "bad" or "choppy" when price is not moving cleanly and has a lot of erratic back and forth. This helps me with stop placement and waiting for a trade to hit a target. But I like your use of prior areas of congestion and S/R as tools to help predict or anticipate how choppy a trade might behave once you're in it and waiting for your target.

Thanks again - hope you find the motivation to record more vids - they're def helpful for me.

Great comments, Surly. I like your concept of "Pace." Identifying early on in the session, they type of conditions that are prevailing is incredibly important. Many people watching 5 minute candles close..find out that the market is choppy way too late. Now, of course, you can have hours of chop and then a great move will come out of nowhere...but overall, I am going to be way more careful and ignore a lot of setups in those conditions.

I find that mapping out those little price congestion areas allows me to anticipate those bounces that show up. Plus it helps time an entry so you don't have to have a large stoploss.

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 Rad4633 
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lancelottrader View Post
From today. Nice session.


Nice trading, I have a question is that a time of day indi at the bottom of your chart? If so could you provide the name or a link to it. I also reference time to gauge market.

thx in advance
R

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 lancelottrader 
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Rad4633 View Post
Nice trading, I have a question is that a time of day indi at the bottom of your chart? If so could you provide the name or a link to it. I also reference time to gauge market.

thx in advance
R

Sorry for the late response, just noticed this. No, the indicator at the bottom has nothing to do with time. The time numbers are simply standard Ninja Trader format. The thing with the green little bars is from Logical Forex. It's called the Watchdog indicator. It turns different colors depending on speed of price and the interaction of price at certain levels with other indicators. I honestly don't pay a lot of attention to it, but sometimes it gives additional entry confirmation.

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 lancelottrader 
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Thought I'd make a video for the New Year. Trades from today and reasons I took them.


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 samadams 
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Nasdin94 View Post
What happens if it ranges?
I'll draw rectangles.
And trade by awaiting price action to form from one end of the rectangle to the other

And if this does happen, usually it would break through the other end of the rectangle.
And this creates a new rectangle.
And the process repeats until the market starts trending.

Its very difficult to explain.

If it doesnt range as bad, then i'll draw triangles, ascending triangles,descending, symm triangles.. wedges,
Well you know.

Its actually quite fun. since the market ranges more than it trends...
learn to trade ranges

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