Hi Lance,

Could you share your thoughts on what your current Ticks per weeks...Per Contract has been the last year or so?
OR....what your target goal is? Wayyyyy back when you were first doing CL...I believe you started with a 60 tick per week goal,
then revised your thinking that you could do MUCH better than that.
I don't recall seeing too much mention of that re: NQ....especially since there were some big time gaps the last couple of years.

Also....what are your thoughts on a Daily stop loss....again in ticks per contract.

Thanks so much again for all that you do!

John

Hi John. In regards to your question about the goal for ticks in a week, I really haven't calculated it. I have a basic idea of the amount of profitability..on average..but that can vary too.
For example, today I did 25 tick scalps for the most part. However, I use more contracts than when I am going for 40 to 50 tick targets. So 25 ticks at 4 contracts equals the same dollar amount as 50 ticks at 2 contracts. So, I'm really looking more for how much profit is made than ticks.

I sort of stopped having a weekly goal or a daily goal because I found that I would get disappointed when I didn't hit a goal. I am mostly focused now on process goals. Did I trade good setups? Did I not go into a move because I was afraid of missing out instead of waiting for the conditions to be right?. Did I control my impulses (which is tough for me..ADHD maybe?) Did I minimize fear and hesitation and also not get upset at losing trades..or losing days? I find if I do everything the best I can..in terms of following my rules..everything works out ok.

The Daily drawdown is what I have struggled with..First of all, in terms of knowing what is the right number to stop at. There were times when I felt I didn't need one..that I was good enough to keep going and not shut down for the day. That didn't work out well. I would some days keep losing, then add more contracts to win it back, etc..till I had a total disaster. Even now, when I hit my drawdown amount, it takes every fiber of my being to walk away. I definitely have a problem there. I hate to stop! And unless you've traded live and gone through this, it's very hard to explain. Since my max stop loss on my 2 contract trades is 40 ticks, that's $400 per loss. I only allow 2 losses for a total of $800. That's it..Game over..even if I think I can easily win it back .If I keep going and losing, something in my brain goes haywire and I start to get "Chimp like"...lol. Now, if I'm doing 4 contract 25 tick scalps, then each loss is $500. So two of those losses is $1000. So my drawdown for the day can range from $800 to $1000. The good news is I often far surpass those amounts on good winning days.
Thanks for your nice words,
Lance

Thanks for the very detailed explanation, Lance. I know these concepts of "when should I quit....both when ahead or behind", goals, targets, etc can be exasperating!

I'd like to share something re: impulse, revenge trading. so....Like 40 years ago i was a prof blackjack player for 10 year. I NEVER, EVER, EVER went off the deep end, revenge played to get even, etc. I was unbelievably disciplined. BUT I'M NOT WITH TRADING! Missing setups, or even seeing a big move and thinking " I should have been able to get in on that", trying to get back to even when down, etc....has been very touch to deal with.

One thing I DID figure out is that....it's TOO fricking easy to trade! I DON'T mean trade well...I just mean executing a trade. Click a mouse and Voila! You're in a trade lol when playing Blackjack...I had to travel to Nev, get a hotel, scout the casinos, pit boss on duty, dealer, etc etc. A lot of work went into just finding great conditions to play in. But with trading...just a quick flick of the mouse and we can go berserk lol. So personally just walking away for a bit is a big help.

Anyway....just thought I share.

Thanks again, Lance

John

Thank you..and congrats on your blackjack playing discipline. I know many will bristle at what I am about to write..but there are very similar effects on the brain as those that are in gambling....maybe even worse. The dopamine that gets secreted when you win can almost cause euphoria..like a drug..just like in Gambling..and losing of course can trigger the epinephrine (adrenaline) etc. Some of course will get this worse than others. It can be an addiction...I think I've been sort of a trading addict..and I just happened to have the ability to spend a lot of years at this to where I have some semblance of skill now. But for many, this endeavor will not end well.

I totally get where you're coming from. Even though I Played cards for a living for 10 years, I NEVER considered it Gambling! Why not? Because I absolutely, positive knew I had a mathematical edge when I played. Unless, or course, I was mis counting the cards. with trading, we never really TRULY know if we do in fact have an edge, although a track record over hundreds or thousands of trades certainly would imply that one does.

I'm not any kind of a gambler at all...ie I don't bet on sports, unless it's maybe $5 or so lol

Here's an interesting thing re: getting the adrenaline going. I've got this friends that trades NQ. He basically trades like you....he calls it Run - Retrace. So like in 2019 he made just under 500k trading 6 lots. He changes indicators like every other month lol But in reality it's just looking at the same setups through different sets of glasses. Anyway, I've seen him get totally wired to where he'll do 100-250 trades in a day. But usually averages maybe 20-30. I KNOW it's just cuz he's bored, or amped, or, wired,but it just shows how one can "get in those funky frames of mind". Just imagine the commissions on those days! lol

Just as a sidenote.....he was trading 6s risking about 30 ticks so about $900 per trade risk. That was HIS comfort level.

Oh, just one more sidenote....he began his trading career about 10 years ago by losing $100,000 right outta the gate!

Thanks again,

John

Wow..about your friend. That's someone to learn from. And I hope you know I wasn't suggesting your Blackjack was gambling..I was referring to trading sometimes..in some people..being like gambling. I'm like you. I don't bet...When I went to Vegas, I played a couple of slot machines for a few minutes and that was it.

Here's a video of today's trades. All of them are what I call "Grid Scalps". It's a technique I use when volatility is lower.

Hello! I have stumbled upon this thread recently, really impressed with amount of useful information here. Your trading style very similar to mine though I rely on tick charts but the idea is the same.

Nevertheless, I don`t understand how it possible to be profitable in the long run with 1:1 RRR? As I understand you don`t vary position size, 4 contracts is your constant size. So mathematically you must have at least 60% winning rate. Moreover, loosing streaks, which inevitably occur, may lead to a significant drawdowns.

Could you explain your Risk/Reward approach?