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The Crude Dude Oil Trading System


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The Crude Dude Oil Trading System

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  #701 (permalink)
 Okina 
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lancelottrader View Post
I understand..in fact if one goes back several pages in my thread here, they will see that I was posting a lot of trades in real time..I was showing the charts and my entries and then I would reveal in the next post what they did. I didn't get much participation from others though..as far as them posting their trades.

We are several posting trades in @michaelleemoore journal (which is by the fact no more his journal) and we react each other to our trades (win or loses) make some market calls (not mine they are worth shit, or in fact are just valid for the next 30s...lol). So far we are 4 very active (Michael of course, Inletcap, Rory and myself). It is very funny and entertaining. And more trader are joining the group. It is not a contest for "who has the biggest" but a very friendly sharing even if we have very different trading methods.

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  #702 (permalink)
 lancelottrader 
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Okina View Post
We are several posting trades in @michaelleemoore journal (which is by the fact no more his journal) and we react each other to our trades (win or loses) make some market calls (not mine they are worth shit, or in fact are just valid for the next 30s...lol). So far we are 4 very active (Michael of course, Inletcap, Rory and myself). It is very funny and entertaining.

I've been reading it. But when I am trading now, I try to stay extremely focused and really tune in to the "pulse" of the market. Once I start looking at other things...I lose that connection. If the market is exceedingly slow..or it's a planned break time, then I will look.

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  #703 (permalink)
 Okina 
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lancelottrader View Post
I've been reading it. But when I am trading now, I try to stay extremely focused and really tune in to the "pulse" of the market. Once I start looking at other things...I lose that connection. If the market is exceedingly slow..or it's a planned break time, then I will look.

Great, I'm looking forward seeing you trades. I love your trades and they are (I suspect) very close to mine since even if we explain it in a different way we look to have a similar way of trading.

I must add that posting in the journal in almost real time has costed me some opportunities but it is worth the price

R.I.P. Olivier Terrier (aka "Okina"), 1969-2016.
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  #704 (permalink)
 dannyinhouston 
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lancelottrader View Post
I didn't really want to post this...I made a lot of mistakes, but I've committed to do these videos for the rest of the week.


Thank you so much for recording your bad days! These bad trades are probably more useful to beginners than the good trades. I salute you Sir!

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  #705 (permalink)
 lancelottrader 
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I'm finding this price action a bit tricky today..for those out there that are trading real money...be careful. I made 20 ticks earlier..but going to stay out for a bit.

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  #706 (permalink)
 lancelottrader 
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Did just scalp that little pop at 10:27 est. for another 20. Order flow gave that one away..

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  #707 (permalink)
 CinderellaMan 
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lancelottrader View Post
Did just scalp that little pop at 10:27 est. for another 20. Order flow gave that one away..

Glad to hear youre having a good day. Terrible day for me though unfortunately.

Edit: But I just picked up 30 ticks to save my day. Sweet.

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  #708 (permalink)
 lancelottrader 
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MetsFanTrader View Post
Glad to hear youre having a good day. Terrible day for me though unfortunately.

Edit: But I just picked up 30 ticks to save my day. Sweet.

That quote of mine was from yesterday...Today didn't go very well. As I have learned countless times..Wednesday's (if they are Oil report days) price movement can be extremely erratic. Sometimes the pre report moves are ok, many times they are not. After the report comes out, order flow can be extremely jumbled...even 30 to 40 minutes later .
My setups that work so well under the right conditions, fail frequently on Wednesday. Today there were several moves that looked like reversals at the bottom. I would see a surge of contracts coming in, and I would go long..only to have it fail at some mild resistance. There was a good breakout move, but since it happened at 2:28 est, 2 minutes before pit close, I passed on it.
Now SIM trading on wednesday is a lot easier..since you can be bold and just jump right in..and often it works out. But when you are trading a decent amount of real money, these are not ideal conditions that you want to risk your cash on.
So, after again, reviewing my journal and seeing how many losing trades I have had over the years on Wednesday, I have decided not to trade CL anymore on that day. Today was the last time. The temptation is there because I have had some amazing runners post Oil report But I realize, I can easily hit my goal for the week without trading Wednesday...so why keep taking the risk. When I see momentum come in and I have a perfect entry..that usually works on every other day..but fails at a high level on this day, it's time to stop . I can't argue with my results...and watching it will only tempt me to go in. Yes, I may give up a 100 tick day..But as long as I make my money for the week and keep upping my contracts, it doesn't matter.

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  #709 (permalink)
 lancelottrader 
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I was chatting with a CL trader recently ,about his struggles going from SIM to live, and I thought I would share a few things. He relayed to me a little about his system (which was fairly similar to mine),and mentioned he had had several months of great results on SIM. However, the last few times he had gone live in the past year or so, it had always been a disaster. So like many, he found himself going live for a few weeks, suffering some losses , and then going back to SIM to "work things out." This pattern had gone on for years and was something I could relate to...having been there myself.
He seemed very puzzled why his system worked so well on SIM, but always failed miserably live. He now has been back to live for about three weeks and has won about 50 ticks the first week, but has lost the last two weeks by about 40 ticks each week. The main problem he has told me is that he can't seem to hold a trade..for even a 10 tick target, let alone a 20. He said he wins 20 tick trades all the time on SIM, but now when price pauses or bounce a few ticks against him, he immediately tries to get out at even. He says he feels so much adrenaline that he feels his heart start speeding up and pounding. He's been incredibly depressed the last week or so, since he was hitting his goal on SIM virtually every week.

If some of you think the guy sounds like a weak "Beta Male" type, and you are just a SIM trader...you may be in for a little adjustment period of your own. I can definitely identify with this guy. I had almost the exact same issue when I would go live. Once I made my final live transition, I made up my mind I was not going to return to SIM, no matter what. And it was time to sink or swim. I had been going back and forth from SIM to live for years and if many of you here are honest, I bet a lot of you have, too.

The big problem that comes up is fear of loss. It is 100 times more magnified live than SIM and it will make you pull the plug on lots of winning trades. And if you time in a trade like I do (and the guy I was chatting with)on Small time frames, you can have issues when watching your trade journey to it's target. Lots of things happen on that journey: Ideally, it can blast right to your target quickly...or it can suddenly pause and not do much for 10 minutes or so but bounce a few ticks up and down. Each one of those little downward ticks can be stressful. Or the trade can go against you 6 or 7 ticks and look like a sure loser. But many of these trades go on to win and by getting out of them, you can't make up for your inevitable losses. Watching that P and L and looking at a tiny timeframe can be so much harder live than SIM ..especially if you've had a few losing weeks.

What worked for me was..after taking my entry, I stopped watching the 2 range chart while I was in the trade. Instead I'd look at a 5 minute chart with no profit and loss showing. The slower movement was much less stressful on my brain. If I had a stop as large as 15 and say a target of 20 or 30..I would set price alerts when I was 10 ticks down and maybe 10 ticks up. On the 5 minute chart I drew a green horizontal line where my target was and a red line where my stop was. So basically, no interference until the 10 tick alert sounded and then maybe a quick glance at my 2 range to see if I thought it could go further. But looking at the empty 5 minute chart was much easier on my brain in terms of staying in a trade. I don't always do that now, but when I was going from SIM to live, it helped me stay in my trades. I had broke even on so many winning trades initially, I had to do this to stay in them. Also one can set price alerts at the target and stop ..and simply walk out of the room ..you will hear the alert when either has been hit and then you can come in and verify your platform worked...lol.

Hopefully this will help the guy or someone else who may have trouble staying in their trades.

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  #710 (permalink)
 michaelleemoore 
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lancelottrader View Post
I was chatting with a CL trader recently ,about his struggles going from SIM to live, and I thought I would share a few things. He relayed to me a little about his system (which was fairly similar to mine),and mentioned he had had several months of great results on SIM. However, the last few times he had gone live in the past year or so, it had always been a disaster. So like many, he found himself going live for a few weeks, suffering some losses , and then going back to SIM to "work things out." This pattern had gone on for years and was something I could relate to...having been there myself.
He seemed very puzzled why his system worked so well on SIM, but always failed miserably live. He now has been back to live for about three weeks and has won about 50 ticks the first week, but has lost the last two weeks by about 40 ticks each week. The main problem he has told me is that he can't seem to hold a trade..for even a 10 tick target, let alone a 20. He said he wins 20 tick trades all the time on SIM, but now when price pauses or bounce a few ticks against him, he immediately tries to get out at even. He says he feels so much adrenaline that he feels his heart start speeding up and pounding. He's been incredibly depressed the last week or so, since he was hitting his goal on SIM virtually every week.

If some of you think the guy sounds like a weak "Beta Male" type, and you are just a SIM trader...you may be in for a little adjustment period of your own. I can definitely identify with this guy. I had almost the exact same issue when I would go live. Once I made my final live transition, I made up my mind I was not going to return to SIM, no matter what. And it was time to sink or swim. I had been going back and forth from SIM to live for years and if many of you here are honest, I bet a lot of you have, too.

The big problem that comes up is fear of loss. It is 100 times more magnified live than SIM and it will make you pull the plug on lots of winning trades. And if you time in a trade like I do (and the guy I was chatting with)on Small time frames, you can have issues when watching your trade journey to it's target. Lots of things happen on that journey: Ideally, it can blast right to your target quickly...or it can suddenly pause and not do much for 10 minutes or so but bounce a few ticks up and down. Each one of those little downward ticks can be stressful. Or the trade can go against you 6 or 7 ticks and look like a sure loser. But many of these trades go on to win and by getting out of them, you can't make up for your inevitable losses. Watching that P and L and looking at a tiny timeframe can be so much harder live than SIM ..especially if you've had a few losing weeks.

What worked for me was..after taking my entry, I stopped watching the 2 range chart while I was in the trade. Instead I'd look at a 5 minute chart with no profit and loss showing. The slower movement was much less stressful on my brain. If I had a stop as large as 15 and say a target of 20 or 30..I would set price alerts when I was 10 ticks down and maybe 10 ticks up. On the 5 minute chart I drew a green horizontal line where my target was and a red line where my stop was. So basically, no interference until the 10 tick alert sounded and then maybe a quick glance at my 2 range to see if I thought it could go further. But looking at the empty 5 minute chart was much easier on my brain in terms of staying in a trade. I don't always do that now, but when I was going from SIM to live, it helped me stay in my trades. I had broke even on so many winning trades initially, I had to do this to stay in them. Also one can set price alerts at the target and stop ..and simply walk out of the room ..you will hear the alert when either has been hit and then you can come in and verify your platform worked...lol.

Hopefully this will help the guy or someone else who may have trouble staying in their trades.

Well said, Lancelot, and so important for so many traders.

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  #711 (permalink)
 lancelottrader 
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michaelleemoore View Post
Well said, Lancelot, and so important for so many traders.

I used to think I could "tell" when something was going against me and was a sure loser, but Cl can be extremely tricky and it's countertrend noise isn't always a good enough reason to liquidate a valid trade. A few years ago, with my total belief in scalping immediate momentum, I would have considered my last sentence to be Blasphemy. But I have entered trades on CL with overwhelming speed and order flow..only to have it go up 6 ticks or so retrace a bit and do nothing for 5 minutes or more before going back up and hitting 10 ticks or more. I've seen it too many times. And it can make you pull the plug on some winners.

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  #712 (permalink)
 michaelleemoore 
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lancelottrader View Post
I used to think I could "tell" when something was going against me and was a sure loser, but Cl can be extremely tricky and it's countertrend noise isn't always a good enough reason to liquidate a valid trade. A few years ago, with my total belief in scalping immediate momentum, I would have considered my last sentence to be Blasphemy. But I have entered trades on CL with overwhelming speed and order flow..only to have it go up 6 ticks or so retrace a bit and do nothing for 5 minutes or more before going back up and hitting 10 ticks or more. I've seen it too many times. And it can make you pull the plug on some winners.

I struggled with this same phenomenon when I learned to trade stocks. Did it again when I moved to futures. I found my itchy fingers getting me out of trades I knew I should stay in. What finally got me over the hump was a lesson I learned from rock climbing, where I'm often far above protection, but pull it together and continue up. That pull up is based on training, repetition, and controlling fear. I knew my trades worked, but feared the fall, feared missing the small gain. Rock climbing falls have never hurt me, and they've taught me that I don't get better until I climb routes that are initially too hard for me.

And that little lesson pushed me to stay in trades, dampening the fear while knowing I would survive the loss if it came.

That said, it ain't easy. Thanks much for your very valuable thread, Lance. Thoughtful, reasoned, smart. Solid stuff.

Michael

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 lancelottrader 
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michaelleemoore View Post
I struggled with this same phenomenon when I learned to trade stocks. Did it again when I moved to futures. I found my itchy fingers getting me out of trades I knew I should stay in. What finally got me over the hump was a lesson I learned from rock climbing, where I'm often far above protection, but pull it together and continue up. That pull up is based on training, repetition, and controlling fear. I knew my trades worked, but feared the fall, feared missing the small gain. Rock climbing falls have never hurt me, and they've taught me that I don't get better until I climb routes that are initially too hard for me.

And that little lesson pushed me to stay in trades, dampening the fear while knowing I would survive the loss if it came.

That said, it ain't easy. Thanks much for your very valuable thread, Lance. Thoughtful, reasoned, smart. Solid stuff.

Michael

That's great that you could apply the rock climbing lessons to trading.

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 Sk8ter 
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lancelottrader View Post
I was chatting with a CL trader recently ,about his struggles going from SIM to live, and I thought I would share a few things. He relayed to me a little about his system (which was fairly similar to mine),and mentioned he had had several months of great results on SIM. However, the last few times he had gone live in the past year or so, it had always been a disaster. So like many, he found himself going live for a few weeks, suffering some losses , and then going back to SIM to "work things out." This pattern had gone on for years and was something I could relate to...having been there myself.
He seemed very puzzled why his system worked so well on SIM, but always failed miserably live. He now has been back to live for about three weeks and has won about 50 ticks the first week, but has lost the last two weeks by about 40 ticks each week. The main problem he has told me is that he can't seem to hold a trade..for even a 10 tick target, let alone a 20. He said he wins 20 tick trades all the time on SIM, but now when price pauses or bounce a few ticks against him, he immediately tries to get out at even. He says he feels so much adrenaline that he feels his heart start speeding up and pounding. He's been incredibly depressed the last week or so, since he was hitting his goal on SIM virtually every week.

If some of you think the guy sounds like a weak "Beta Male" type, and you are just a SIM trader...you may be in for a little adjustment period of your own. I can definitely identify with this guy. I had almost the exact same issue when I would go live. Once I made my final live transition, I made up my mind I was not going to return to SIM, no matter what. And it was time to sink or swim. I had been going back and forth from SIM to live for years and if many of you here are honest, I bet a lot of you have, too.

The big problem that comes up is fear of loss. It is 100 times more magnified live than SIM and it will make you pull the plug on lots of winning trades. And if you time in a trade like I do (and the guy I was chatting with)on Small time frames, you can have issues when watching your trade journey to it's target. Lots of things happen on that journey: Ideally, it can blast right to your target quickly...or it can suddenly pause and not do much for 10 minutes or so but bounce a few ticks up and down. Each one of those little downward ticks can be stressful. Or the trade can go against you 6 or 7 ticks and look like a sure loser. But many of these trades go on to win and by getting out of them, you can't make up for your inevitable losses. Watching that P and L and looking at a tiny timeframe can be so much harder live than SIM ..especially if you've had a few losing weeks.

What worked for me was..after taking my entry, I stopped watching the 2 range chart while I was in the trade. Instead I'd look at a 5 minute chart with no profit and loss showing. The slower movement was much less stressful on my brain. If I had a stop as large as 15 and say a target of 20 or 30..I would set price alerts when I was 10 ticks down and maybe 10 ticks up. On the 5 minute chart I drew a green horizontal line where my target was and a red line where my stop was. So basically, no interference until the 10 tick alert sounded and then maybe a quick glance at my 2 range to see if I thought it could go further. But looking at the empty 5 minute chart was much easier on my brain in terms of staying in a trade. I don't always do that now, but when I was going from SIM to live, it helped me stay in my trades. I had broke even on so many winning trades initially, I had to do this to stay in them. Also one can set price alerts at the target and stop ..and simply walk out of the room ..you will hear the alert when either has been hit and then you can come in and verify your platform worked...lol.

Hopefully this will help the guy or someone else who may have trouble staying in their trades.

I've had this problem too, not being able to hold a trade to target through those small pullbacks but now I've gone too far the other way - holding on too long. For instance, if I'm in a long I'm seeing the trade move up within a few ticks of target or key level (eg. yesterday's close, high, vwap, etc) then pullback, stall, move up again, only to fall just short again and once again pullback, stall, move up again, fall short again and then absolutely explode down in the opposite direction. I try to look for waning momentum, number of attempts to move up and anything else that will give me clues that it's not going to work out. Sometimes the orders just seem to come out of nowhere. Any suggestions or advice as to how you handle these situations. Thanks.

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 lancelottrader 
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Sk8ter View Post
I've had this problem too, not being able to hold a trade to target through those small pullbacks but now I've gone too far the other way - holding on too long. For instance, if I'm in a long I'm seeing the trade move up within a few ticks of target or key level (eg. yesterday's close, high, vwap, etc) then pullback, stall, move up again, only to fall just short again and once again pullback, stall, move up again, fall short again and then absolutely explode down in the opposite direction. I try to look for waning momentum, number of attempts to move up and anything else that will give me clues that it's not going to work out. Sometimes the orders just seem to come out of nowhere. Any suggestions or advice as to how you handle these situations. Thanks.

I think what you are referring to is a deliberate institutional ploy to cause the infamous "trapped traders " syndrome. What happens is you have a lot of people in a trade..assuming it has to hit that key level of support . As they make attempts, the institutions know these multitude of traders are going to hold for at least those last few ticks to hit their target. Then, they suddenly go the opposite way..and you get a snowballing effect. The scared traders try to liquidate as the price starts surging down..then others start getting their stops hit..and the orderflow can cause a quick 100 tick reversal. I see this a lot when price in CL has suddenly surged up and it's racing to that key level. In fact I try to get out before I get all the way to the top. I like to wait for those reversals and try to jump in, and grab some ticks. I do try to look for something that fails at least three times. Three seems to be a key number in a lot of these type of moves. Also, in CL..I see this a lot more when it reverses from long positions. Maybe try getting into some trades and getting out several ticks before that key reversal area.

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  #716 (permalink)
 Okina 
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Hi Lancelot,

I was re-watching some of your video at the time when CL was over 100$. I would like to know if you find CL more easy to trade now that we are much lower or more difficult?

I was looking at what you called at the time "small targets" of 40 of 50 ticks... and today 40 or 50 ticks is quite a big runner. I wasn't trading at that time but it is fascinating to see "small" intraday moves of 100 up follow by a 100 ticks down and all of that in less than 1 hours.

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 lancelottrader 
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I do notice lately on some trading threads, there are people claiming they make 30 to 50 ticks a day..or more..on a regular basis. I notice they also say this is disappointing...and that they should be making much more.
Lets look at this realistically. Even a modest 30 ticks a day for 5 days is 150 ticks a week. Doing that and you can fairly quickly build up a small account to where you can trade 5 contracts. So 30 ticks a day(150 ticks a week) x 5 contracts ($50 a tick) is $7500 a week...$30,000 a month.. or $360,000 a year. 10 contracts is $720,000 a year. 20 contracts is $1,440,000.00 a year.

So all these guys that are whining that they only had a day where they made 40 ticks or so seem kind of silly. Because if they are being real and trading real money, well, then we should have a new crop of Futures.io millionaires in no time, right?

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 lancelottrader 
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Okina View Post
Hi Lancelot,

I was re-watching some of your video at the time when CL was over 100$. I would like to know if you find CL more easy to trade now that we are much lower or more difficult?

I was looking at what you called at the time "small targets" of 40 of 50 ticks... and today 40 or 50 ticks is quite a big runner. I wasn't trading at that time but it is fascinating to see "small" intraday moves of 100 up follow by a 100 ticks down and all of that in less than 1 hours.

It seems to be about the same. Some great days mixed in with some choppy ones. Maybe they seemed like small targets if there were days of 200 tick moves. I think 40 ticks now is a very good target. Most of mine are anywhere from 10-30 ticks.

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 Okina 
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lancelottrader View Post
I do notice lately on some trading threads, there are people claiming they make 30 to 50 ticks a day..or more..on a regular basis. I notice they also say this is disappointing...and that they should be making much more.
Lets look at this realistically. Even a modest 30 ticks a day for 5 days is 150 ticks a week. Doing that and you can fairly quickly build up a small account to where you can trade 5 contracts. So 30 ticks a day(150 ticks a week) x 5 contracts ($50 a tick) is $7500 a week...$30,000 a month.. or $360,000 a year. 10 contracts is $720,000 a year. 20 contracts is $1,440,000.00 a year.

So all these guys that are whining that they only had a day where they made 40 ticks or so seem kind of silly. Because if they are being real and trading real money, well, then we should have a new crop of Futures.io millionaires in no time, right?

You are right about the math but you forget the human factor in the equation. Here I speak for me but I guess it is the same for all of us. I'm comfortable with 1 (yes just 1) at 2 I start to be nervous I trade less efficiently, at 5 it is not clearly my level... even a very small target make me extremely nervous and at the end of the day the result are worst than with 1. I think it takes months or years to overcome this bias. I've heard people speaking of 20 25 contract one shoot, even if I had a 10M$ futures account I know for sure that if I trade this size I will be a net loser (cutting the winner to soon and losing as usual or worst). We has a bias to think in $ instead of %. Everyday I do this math in my head and I smile, every time I have tried to go bigger it has not been a success, so the logical (even it is illogical) conclusion is to stay small until you get comfortable


If we were machine, I'm sure we can achieve those kind of target. Another thing to work on

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 Sk8ter 
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lancelottrader View Post
I think what you are referring to is a deliberate institutional ploy to cause the infamous "trapped traders " syndrome. What happens is you have a lot of people in a trade..assuming it has to hit that key level of support . As they make attempts, the institutions know these multitude of traders are going to hold for at least those last few ticks to hit their target. Then, they suddenly go the opposite way..and you get a snowballing effect. The scared traders try to liquidate as the price starts surging down..then others start getting their stops hit..and the orderflow can cause a quick 100 tick reversal. I see this a lot when price in CL has suddenly surged up and it's racing to that key level. In fact I try to get out before I get all the way to the top. I like to wait for those reversals and try to jump in, and grab some ticks. I do try to look for something that fails at least three times. Three seems to be a key number in a lot of these type of moves. Also, in CL..I see this a lot more when it reverses from long positions. Maybe try getting into some trades and getting out several ticks before that key reversal area.

Your comments make a lot of sense. Thanks for your insight Lance.

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 dannyinhouston 
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I posted this:



Can you please assist? I've read your thread, and I installed Logical Forex indicators, but now I cannot add any other indicators. Is this something Logical Forex does intentionally, or do I have another problem. Can you add indicators from this forum while you also have Logical Forex installed?

Thanks

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 lancelottrader 
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dannyinhouston View Post
I posted this:



Can you please assist? I've read your thread, and I installed Logical Forex indicators, but now I cannot add any other indicators. Is this something Logical Forex does intentionally, or do I have another problem. Can you add indicators from this forum while you also have Logical Forex installed?

Thanks

Yes, I had the same problem..it's just a programming error..I'm sure it's not intentional. I forgot what I did exactly to remove it, but I remember a guy from Ninja helped me take care of the issue. Try Ninja support..if you haven't already.

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Hello Lance,
Great thread, I truly appreciate the level of detail you've poured into your videos and explanations for your approach - straightforward is quite refreshing, especially in this field, no doubt.

Question for you: do you now, or have you in the past, watched other futures instruments as leading or lagging indicators of possible price action sentiment in CL? Over the last few months the notion that CL and the S&P index futures being correlated has been bandied around a few trader hangouts online, and then of course there's the USD index, Euro futures, Tbills, and so on.

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 Tap In 
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Nice to hear a couple mentions of your dad during The Masters.

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 lancelottrader 
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ClutchAce View Post
Hello Lance,
Great thread, I truly appreciate the level of detail you've poured into your videos and explanations for your approach - straightforward is quite refreshing, especially in this field, no doubt.

Question for you: do you now, or have you in the past, watched other futures instruments as leading or lagging indicators of possible price action sentiment in CL? Over the last few months the notion that CL and the S&P index futures being correlated has been bandied around a few trader hangouts online, and then of course there's the USD index, Euro futures, Tbills, and so on.

Thank you for your comments. In the last several months, there has been obviously a very close correlation between Cl and ES and other stock futures like YM. The Cl has been the leading indicator for the e-mini indexes and they have been following it almost exactly. In the last couple of weeks, there has been a slight change in that relationship. But I really can't say I use any other instrument as a leading indicator for Crude.

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Tap In View Post
Nice to hear a couple mentions of your dad during The Masters.

I wasn't watching. If you don't mind me asking, did they mention him being the low amateur four times and finishing second there in 1947?

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lancelottrader View Post
I wasn't watching. If you don't mind me asking, did they mention him being the low amateur four times and finishing second there in 1947?

Ok, who's your dad? : )

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 lancelottrader 
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emini2000 View Post
Ok, who's your dad? : )

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Stranahan

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lancelottrader View Post
I wasn't watching. If you don't mind me asking, did they mention him being the low amateur four times and finishing second there in 1947?

They weren't quite that specific unfortunately because that is an awesome record! He was mentioned a couple times along with some of the other great amateurs while they were talking about Dechambeau.

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Tap In View Post
They weren't quite that specific unfortunately because that is an awesome record! He was mentioned a couple times along with some of the other great amateurs while they were talking about Dechambeau.

Thanks.

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Just looking at some pics of him. Wow. Good looking and very fit even through old age.

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 lancelottrader 
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I've made a few slight changes that i have found helpful in the last few weeks. Although I have had the order flow indicator Tick Strike for a long time, I wasn't really using it to it's best advantage. A lot of my entries have been price action pattern- based and the entry point was often a location like the break of my black Spine on my 2 range chart.For example, one pattern was a pullback during a fresh strong momentum move..that would fail in it's countertrend path. After the appropriate pattern formed and price would re-enter the trend, I would enter on the break of the Black spine. Often I would get in without any type of real time order flow confirmation. Many of these trades would work out...but also there were many times when they would not. The reason I liked the Black spine entry is it seemed to keep my risk very low and got me in at what I felt was a good "price."
I have found that I win more often on these moves if I see some order flow starting to accumulate in my direction first..through tick strike showing orders coming in. Yes, I may get into a move 3 to 5 ticks later..but it definitely has more confirmation and I am losing far less trades on these setups.

Also, after reviewing lots of my recorded sessions, I would find there were these almost spontaneous surges in Cl that seemed to come out of nowhere..and I would sit there dazed watching it explode up 30 to 50 ticks in a matter of seconds. I would then hope for some kind of pullback..which often didn't work out that well.

I noticed a certain price pattern of a previous swing high or swing low..being taken out in conjunction with extreme order flow coming in. I have been practicing these "Power Swing Breaks" (As I have named them..lol) and have been nailing lots of them. You have to be quick on the trigger to get them but they are nice little pops that I used to sit back and watch passively..in the past.
Also, I am liking how price appears on the Unirenko bars and have found it easier to watch and hold trades than on my frantic moving 2 range chart..
So, overall a few minor changes..but I am getting better results.

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 wshi88 
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Hi Lance,

Thank you for the update.

I've been using Unirenko for quite some time, I also find it very clear and intuitive.

Question, what do you use Fisher Transform indicator for? To spot divergence?

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 lancelottrader 
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wshi88 View Post
Hi Lance,

Thank you for the update.

I've been using Unirenko for quite some time, I also find it very clear and intuitive.

Question, what do you use Fisher Transform indicator for? To spot divergence?

I have just been experimenting with it for about a week. I find it gives some hints on this small timeframe when the momentum starts to die out..It doesn't lag much from what I've seen. I'm liking it so far.

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 lancelottrader 
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Serif View Post
Take a look at Trading Price Action On Futures | Trading Price Action On Futures and his YouTube channel, he only uses unirenko.

Thanks. I'll check it out.

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 lancelottrader 
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Today is a day that I have seen many times in Crude Oil..and have lost badly many times on, in the past. Usually, the 9 am session has begun after Crude has made a huge move down...and then it goes into a sort of consolidation. There are many false little signals to go long at support...but doing so with a small stop gets you chopped up again and again.

On these type of days, I no longer try to call the bottom. I need to wait till a clear reversal is underway and then find a good entry. Yes..eventually the reversal usually comes..but you can get stopped out a lot trying to get long too early.

Funny, the same thing doesn't happen that much in an uptrend. The uptrend moves often reverse down very sharply.

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 oliverburr 
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lancelottrader View Post
Today is a day that I have seen many times in Crude Oil..and have lost badly many times on, in the past. Usually, the 9 am session has begun after Crude has made a huge move down...and then it goes into a sort of consolidation. There are many false little signals to go long at support...but doing so with a small stop gets you chopped up again and again.

On these type of days, I no longer try to call the bottom. I need to wait till a clear reversal is underway and then find a good entry. Yes..eventually the reversal usually comes..but you can get stopped out a lot trying to get long too early.

Funny, the same thing doesn't happen that much in an uptrend. The uptrend moves often reverse down very sharply.

I find in CL it is often best to pre-define your "line in the sand" at which you are willing to buy against. Today I am looking at Tuesdays low of 40.09 and last weeks high of 39.84 which puts CL near $2 of range on the session. The latter is also close to a 38% retracement to last weeks low in the May 16 contract. The potential for a weekend announcement that may hurt short sellers may prompt short covering in to today's close.

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 lancelottrader 
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Took this trade...not too sure how it will turn out though. A little late in the day.

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 lancelottrader 
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Looking better now.

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 lancelottrader 
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Target acquired.

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 CinderellaMan 
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Looking better now.

Nice trade. Blasted through your target.

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 lancelottrader 
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Just saw this momentum move and jumped in..

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 lancelottrader 
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Decided to just grab 10 ticks.

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 lancelottrader 
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Another quick 10 ticks..good targeting because it reversed afterwards exactly at 40.47. Haven't been posting much..but got bored today..so figured why not ?

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 Okina 
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lancelottrader View Post
Target acquired.

the cross of the 5 min opening range has worked well today (2 clear one and the third near the close was a little touchy) range 40.36 40.59.

For up cross the target was 40.59 because we had no up trend established but for a down cross you could have targeted more than 40.36.

the 5 min open range is a good tool IMO for none trending day.


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 Okina 
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the last part of the day a little messy as away during no trend day: 1 fail cross but easy to escape from - another failed but that as never reach the confirmation level = and the last one near the close who was scary by re-entering the confirmation level.

(PS sorry to pollute your journal but I see that I take the same trades sometime that you but not taken for the same reasons...)


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 lancelottrader 
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Okina View Post
the last part of the day a little messy as away during no trend day: 1 fail cross but easy to escape from - another failed but that as never reach the confirmation level = and the last one near the close who was scary by re-entering the confirmation level.

(PS sorry to pollute your journal but I see that I take the same trades sometime that you but not taken for the same reasons...)


There were a few opportunities but for the most part, this is not the type of day I like to trade. If you see a big overnight move (which it looks like you caught some).. especially down..and it's a friday, you can get into a type of price movement that I don't like. I think some of it has to do with the fact that a lot of big players aren't committing to taking a new position going into the weekend.

To me, the most important thing is to try to get a read on the market conditions as soon as possible..before I lose too many trades. Some of this is hard to tell from looking at a static chart..there is a sort of pulse to the market. It is something that I try to tune in on..and "Feel" it. Sometimes it comes from having traded similar looking days and knowing what happened then. I know I am good enough, at this point to do well on the obvious, easy days where price moves in a strong straightforward manner. It's the tough days that can ruin a week. ..the days where price suddenly lunges a few ticks..then turns around and chops around.. That's why I try to describe out loud what I am seeing..and then make adjustments.
If I don't understand or like what I am seeing, I simply won't trade. If I miss a few moves, I don't mind. My goal right now is to try to detect those "lousy" days and sit on my hands untill something shows up that I recognize. The good days will take care of themselves.

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 Okina 
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lancelottrader View Post
There were a few opportunities but for the most part, this is not the type of day I like to trade. If you see a big overnight move (which it looks like you caught some).. especially down..and it's a friday, you can get into a type of price movement that I don't like. I think some of it has to do with the fact that a lot of big players aren't committing to taking a new position going into the weekend.

To me, the most important thing is to try to get a read on the market conditions as soon as possible..before I lose too many trades. Some of this is hard to tell from looking at a static chart..there is a sort of pulse to the market. It is something that I try to tune in on..and "Feel" it. Sometimes it comes from having traded similar looking days and knowing what happened then. I know I am good enough, at this point to do well on the obvious, easy days where price moves in a strong straightforward manner. It's the tough days that can ruin a week. ..the days where price suddenly lunges a few ticks..then turns around and chops around.. That's why I try to describe out loud what I am seeing..and then make adjustments.
If I don't understand or like what I am seeing, I simply won't trade. If I miss a few moves, I don't mind. My goal right now is to try to detect those "lousy" days and sit on my hands untill something shows up that I recognize. The good days will take care of themselves.

Yes big trend during the night = lousy day most of time. I have done only 3 trade during the day 2 small loses 1 big winner (of the 2 loses 1 was really because I was sleepy...).

But the impulses in order flow, you can see them on my charts it is the purple bars those one have been draw in less than 2.5 time the averages of the previous 25 bars there is an U or D below them to indicate the way they go so lots of U is an good impulse up and vice versa (and since they are CVB they measure the number of trade - it is a kind of graphical representation of the "sound indicator" that you use). This color coding helped a lot to read a review the chart after. They are static of course but not really static you can spot the move you have missed and try to understand why.

I have use this idea taken in Mark Fisher book for the first time because usually I sit on my hands at the opening since it tends to give me losers most of the time . His concept of opening range helped a lot today.

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 lancelottrader 
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Like many other traders, I have often assigned myself a weekly goal and sometimes even a daily target in terms of how many ticks I want to achieve. The weekly goal was based on what I felt would be a healthy amount of profit that over time leveraging contracts would add up to a substantial income. It also was based on a number I felt was achievable on a consistent basis. What it was not based on was the result of statistical research. .
The questions that I would like to discuss are:
1. Should one try to achieve a set amount of ticks each day? Should a weekly goal be set and once achieved, should further trading for that week be halted?
2. Unless someone has taking all good setups in their daily sessions over a long period of time, do they truly know what kind of results their system produces? In other words if you get to 20 to 40 ticks in a day and decide to stop and then ignore some fantastic moves that happen later, are you depriving yourself of big days..that could possibly offset bad, losing days? I know when trading live and I'm up good on the day, there is a strong desire not to give back my wins. So, many times if I have made what I feel is a decent amount, I stop trading. But then I miss some trades that would work well.
3. For the math to add up, knowing that in all setups there is a random distribution of wins and losses, can you know what your "batting average" is if you decide to quit because you won a few trades?
Also, if you are 30 to 40 ticks down..should you quit for the day and possibly miss out on a huge winner ..because of some max daily drawdown rule..that ignores the math of random distribution of wins and losses?
4. Should,at least on SIM, if one is testing a system...take all good setups each day that occur..regardless of wins or losses..over a period of time so they have a reliable set of statistics that accurately measures their skill level?

I would be interested in reading what some others on here think about these questions.

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 Okina 
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lancelottrader View Post
Like many other traders, I have often assigned myself a weekly goal and sometimes even a daily target in terms of how many ticks I want to achieve. The weekly goal was based on what I felt would be a healthy amount of profit that over time leveraging contracts would add up to a substantial income. It also was based on a number I felt was achievable on a consistent basis. What it was not based on was the result of statistical research. .
The questions that I would like to discuss are:
1. Should one try to achieve a set amount of ticks each day? Should a weekly goal be set and once achieved, should further trading for that week be halted?
2. Unless someone has taking all good setups in their daily sessions over a long period of time, do they truly know what kind of results their system produces? In other words if you get to 20 to 40 ticks in a day and decide to stop and then ignore some fantastic moves that happen later, are you depriving yourself of big days..that could possibly offset bad, losing days? I know when trading live and I'm up good on the day, there is a strong desire not to give back my wins. So, many times if I have made what I feel is a decent amount, I stop trading. But then I miss some trades that would work well.
3. For the math to add up, knowing that in all setups there is a random distribution of wins and losses, can you know what your "batting average" is if you decide to quit because you won a few trades?
Also, if you are 30 to 40 ticks down..should you quit for the day and possibly miss out on a huge winner ..because of some max daily drawdown rule..that ignores the math of random distribution of wins and losses?
4. Should,at least on SIM, if one is testing a system...take all good setups each day that occur..regardless of wins or losses..over a period of time so they have a reliable set of statistics that accurately measures their skill level?

I would be interested in reading what some others on here think about these questions.

Very interesting questions that I ask to myself everyday.

The gambler logic should be to "leave the casino" once you have made a good gain. But I think it does not apply to markets.

Someday your setups perfectly describe the market and you have an incredible success most yours calls are right and I think you should capitalize on those day - it is also the most rewarding day from a personal point of view so why not taking pleasure. Someday the market behave completely differently and your setups mostly failed. This is the time to leave. Also someday after 1 or 2 trades you really see that the problem is not the setups but you, in that case it is also the time to leave (at least for a moment - in that case I leave for real and take a walk outside - unless it is -20 in Montreal lol).

The critical hours for me are 9:30 to 10:30 if at that time I see that my setups as lead mostly to bad trades I leave and will only consider going back for the close which is a different market by itself. I don't have max gain limit but I have max loses limit per day when this number is reach I also leave.

Backtesting: If I could do a complete backtesting of all the setups it will mean that I can automate the system and that I am not longer necessary - it is a dream in my case. I would like to be able to do it but I can't. I have backtested some little part of the system just to see if they make sense (like my trend patterns). But I test them on charts (but it is a difficult and not always reliable exercise since you see the result so your mind is biased) and with market replay. But the setups are always evolving even if the core of the system remain the same.

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 lancelottrader 
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Okina View Post
Very interesting questions that I ask to myself everyday.

The gambler logic should be to "leave the casino" once you have made a good gain. But I think it does not apply to markets.

Someday your setups perfectly describe the market and you have an incredible success most yours calls are right and I think you should capitalize on those day - it is also the most rewarding day from a personal point of view so why not taking pleasure. Someday the market behave completely differently and your setups mostly failed. This is the time to leave. Also someday after 1 or 2 trades you really see that the problem is not the setups but you, in that case it is also the time to leave (at least for a moment - in that case I leave for real and take a walk outside - unless it is -20 in Montreal lol).

The critical hours for me are 9:30 to 10:30 if at that time I see that my setups as lead mostly to bad trades I leave and will only consider going back for the close which is a different market by itself. I don't have max gain limit but I have max loses limit per day when this number is reach I also leave.

Backtesting: If I could do a complete backtesting of all the setups it will mean that I can automate the system and that I am not longer necessary - it is a dream in my case. I would like to be able to do it but I can't. I have backtested some little part of the system just to see if they make sense (like my trend patterns). But I test them on charts (but it is a difficult and not always reliable exercise since you see the result so your mind is biased) and with market replay. But the setups are always evolving even if the core of the system remain the same.

Great comments. Thanks, Okina.

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gobeagle
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In my beginner's opinion, I believe setting daily or weekly goals serves the purpose of controlling emotions and discipline whole lot more than money management itself. If you're on a roll, I'm pretty sure that your emotions will (sooner than later) take over your rationale. If you're behind, same thing: chances than you dig yourself into a deeper hole increase. Because after all, even if you stack the odds in your favor (positive or negative) with your knowledge of the market, trading ultimately remains a probabilities game.
Additionally, since we can't predict the future, you wouldn't be able to know that a big move happened later in the day until it would have happened. The next part of the day after you were ahead by 40 ticks could have easily been a crappy consolidation period where you give back all your gains. You know you missed out on a big winner once it has happened. Same thing with a big loser where after seeing it you could say: " Man, I'm glad I didn't get into that one".
Maybe a good way to deal with all this would be to lower your size once you've achieve your daily/weekly goals. Any extras is bonus and additional losses hurt much less. The ultimate "STOP TRADING" rules would then apply after your reduced size bonus trades.
Or you could just raise your size (just like you did going from 1 contract to now 5) instead of looking at it like "missing out on winners or losers".
My beginner's 2 cents...

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 lancelottrader 
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gobeagle View Post
In my beginner's opinion, I believe setting daily or weekly goals serves the purpose of controlling emotions and discipline whole lot more than money management itself. If you're on a roll, I'm pretty sure that your emotions will (sooner than later) take over your rationale. If you're behind, same thing: chances than you dig yourself into a deeper hole increase. Because after all, even if you stack the odds in your favor (positive or negative) with your knowledge of the market, trading ultimately remains a probabilities game.
Additionally, since we can't predict the future, you wouldn't be able to know that a big move happened later in the day until it would have happened. The next part of the day after you were ahead by 40 ticks could have easily been a crappy consolidation period where you give back all your gains. You know you missed out on a big winner once it has happened. Same thing with a big loser where after seeing it you could say: " Man, I'm glad I didn't get into that one".
Maybe a good way to deal with all this would be to lower your size once you've achieve your daily/weekly goals. Any extras is bonus and additional losses hurt much less. The ultimate "STOP TRADING" rules would then apply after your reduced size bonus trades.
Or you could just raise your size (just like you did going from 1 contract to now 5) instead of looking at it like "missing out on winners or losers".
My beginner's 2 cents...

Very good points.

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 lancelottrader 
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I have been really getting good results lately from locating those areas where there is a huge probability that there are a tremendous amounts of stops underneath. Usually in a trending move, you get a lot of entries of traders after a pullback. Of course there will be a lot of stops placed above/or below the failed countertrend swing area. What I see happen often is that price will be heading for a support or resistance area...and therefore many traders are staying in their positions untill their s/r levels are hit. But then, unexpectedly, price fails to go up to the level everyone thinks it will ..and it starts reversing. Then when it takes out that previous swing area where there's a ton of stops...and order flow is showing all those trapped traders getting stopped out..there becomes a great opportunity to catch a strong quick reversal.

The more you can figure out areas and situations that create trapped traders, the better you can exploit these moves. I would imagine there are algorithms designed specifically to locate trapped traders. It's easy to just look at charts and lose sight of the fact that there are "herd mentality" traders all following some chart pattern together...and when they are squeezed out on the wrong side, you can really capitalize on it.

This is obviously not a new concept, but simply one I have been paying more attention to lately.

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Two things that never leave my mind since I learned them. I'm sure everyone has a version of these:

“The History of every major Galactic Civilization tends to pass through three distinct and recognizable phases, those of Survival, Inquiry and Sophistication, otherwise known as the How, Why, and Where phases. For instance, the first phase is characterized by the question 'How can we eat?' the second by the question 'Why do we eat?' and the third by the question 'Where shall we have lunch?”
― Douglas Adams, The Restaurant at the End of the Universe



For some (likely motivated by the money alone, the 'poor savers' of society?) conscious competence might lead to complacency instead further exploration but that is the basic idea.

Daily/weekly goals or trade till you start to tire, when you know what you don't know and have some proficiency I don't see it as a debate. With some history of success you know whats working for you and your other commitments and might even mix things up.

The 3rd best trader I know trades two hours (not to a monetary target) then goes to do voluntary work in his kids' school or community voluntary work / fishing. Its keeps him sane and happy.

Off for lunch at a picnic place

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  #756 (permalink)
 Okina 
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Rory View Post
Two things that never leave my mind since I learned them. I'm sure everyone has a version of these:

“The History of every major Galactic Civilization tends to pass through three distinct and recognizable phases, those of Survival, Inquiry and Sophistication, otherwise known as the How, Why, and Where phases. For instance, the first phase is characterized by the question 'How can we eat?' the second by the question 'Why do we eat?' and the third by the question 'Where shall we have lunch?”
― Douglas Adams, The Restaurant at the End of the Universe



For some (likely motivated by the money alone, the 'poor savers' of society?) conscious competence might lead to complacency instead further exploration but that is the basic idea.

Daily/weekly goals or trade till you start to tire, when you know what you don't know and have some proficiency I don't see it as a debate. With some history of success you know whats working for you and your other commitments and might even mix things up.

The 3rd best trader I know trades two hours (not to a monetary target) then goes to do voluntary work in his kids' school or community voluntary work / fishing. Its keeps him sane and happy.

Off for lunch at a picnic place

Funny drawing how many of those have you on your computer, I am amazed by the number of them you post everyday?

I find this one especially interesting for me. In everything I have done in my life the stage 3 has always been my ultimate goal. I can work incredibly hard to reach it but once it reached I "waste" (it is not a waste for me) my time and money in some interesting (when I am lucky) place/activity in the world It may sound crazy but even if I had a magic wand that could provide me with one wish about trading I will never choose something like: make me the new Soros. Strange?

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Rory
 
 
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Okina View Post
Funny drawing how many of those have you on your computer, I am amazed by the number of them you post everyday?

I find this one especially interesting for me. In everything I have done in my life the stage 3 has always been my ultimate goal. I can work incredibly hard to reach it but once it reached I "waste" (it is not a waste for me) my time and money in some interesting (when I am lucky) place/activity in the world It may sound crazy but even if I had a magic wand that could provide me with one wish about trading I will never choose something like: make me the new Soros. Strange?

Google images as quite a few pictures haha. I was a trainer for some years, I got into the habit "picture says 1000 words" and it both amuses me and trains my memory finding a remembered image. I don't doubt there is a connection between a good visual memory and my eclectic but increasingly successful style of trading.

I understand what your saying, I have a similar migratory stage 3 pattern. I have climbed the (2nd) highest mountains, spoken to the wise men across the Earth and the honest ones always had the same answer about their life's work.. Not a clue what its all about really but it pays the bills.

"Dave Spritz: I remember once imagining what my life would be like, what I'd be like. I pictured having all these qualities, strong positive qualities that people could pick up on from across the room. But as time passed, few ever became any qualities that I actually had. And all the possibilities I faced and the sorts of people I could be, all of them got reduced every year to fewer and fewer. Until finally they got reduced to one, to who I am. And that's who I am, the weather man."

My mother used to say (kindly) "Rory, bored people are usually boring people" (even unto themselves) and it still motivates me to not be that guy.

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 Tap In 
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lancelottrader View Post
Like many other traders, I have often assigned myself a weekly goal and sometimes even a daily target in terms of how many ticks I want to achieve. The weekly goal was based on what I felt would be a healthy amount of profit that over time leveraging contracts would add up to a substantial income. It also was based on a number I felt was achievable on a consistent basis. What it was not based on was the result of statistical research. .
The questions that I would like to discuss are:
1. Should one try to achieve a set amount of ticks each day? Should a weekly goal be set and once achieved, should further trading for that week be halted?
2. Unless someone has taking all good setups in their daily sessions over a long period of time, do they truly know what kind of results their system produces? In other words if you get to 20 to 40 ticks in a day and decide to stop and then ignore some fantastic moves that happen later, are you depriving yourself of big days..that could possibly offset bad, losing days? I know when trading live and I'm up good on the day, there is a strong desire not to give back my wins. So, many times if I have made what I feel is a decent amount, I stop trading. But then I miss some trades that would work well.
3. For the math to add up, knowing that in all setups there is a random distribution of wins and losses, can you know what your "batting average" is if you decide to quit because you won a few trades?
Also, if you are 30 to 40 ticks down..should you quit for the day and possibly miss out on a huge winner ..because of some max daily drawdown rule..that ignores the math of random distribution of wins and losses?
4. Should,at least on SIM, if one is testing a system...take all good setups each day that occur..regardless of wins or losses..over a period of time so they have a reliable set of statistics that accurately measures their skill level?

I would be interested in reading what some others on here think about these questions.

It seems the answer would vary depending on the stage of a trader's development. In general, the more skilled a trader becomes, the further into the day/week they can continue to expect to trade profitably. It all comes down to a trader's ability to discern opportunity vs danger, or to change tactics with changing conditions. Novice traders are less skilled at recognizing these conditions and therefore tend to give back gains on days when they trade well early, while digging ever deeper holes on days when things aren't going well. Therefore for a novice trader it is probably best to guard gains and limit losses.

For someone like yourself, who is more adept at recognizing the difference between opportunity and danger, I would think you could trade deeper into the day/week, perhaps even changing tactics with the changing conditions.

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 Tap In 
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Rory View Post
"Dave Spritz: I remember once imagining what my life would be like, what I'd be like. I pictured having all these qualities, strong positive qualities that people could pick up on from across the room. But as time passed, few ever became any qualities that I actually had. And all the possibilities I faced and the sorts of people I could be, all of them got reduced every year to fewer and fewer. Until finally they got reduced to one, to who I am. And that's who I am, the weather man."

So true.

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ClutchAce
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Rory, I'm curious - what is your profile pic of?

Sorry to briefly detour y'all's discussion

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Rory
 
 
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ClutchAce View Post
Rory, I'm curious - what is your profile pic of?

Sorry to briefly detour y'all's discussion

Its Joy Division's " Unknown Pleasures" 1979 album cover (inverted colour). It was the graph from the first recorded Pulsar (not from a Fairlight CMI synth display). I own the t-shirt.

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 lancelottrader 
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Once again my 1 minute rampage chart keeps you in for a long ride. I am starting to correlate the type of conditions where it makes sense to manage my trade on a chart like this. My screen/ trading recordings show the type of order flow and momentum that yields these type of moves.

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Hickock
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Funny...different tools and methods, but same conclusion.


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 atata 
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lancelottrader View Post
Like many other traders, I have often assigned myself a weekly goal and sometimes even a daily target in terms of how many ticks I want to achieve. The weekly goal was based on what I felt would be a healthy amount of profit that over time leveraging contracts would add up to a substantial income. It also was based on a number I felt was achievable on a consistent basis. What it was not based on was the result of statistical research. .
The questions that I would like to discuss are:
1. Should one try to achieve a set amount of ticks each day? Should a weekly goal be set and once achieved, should further trading for that week be halted?
2. Unless someone has taking all good setups in their daily sessions over a long period of time, do they truly know what kind of results their system produces? In other words if you get to 20 to 40 ticks in a day and decide to stop and then ignore some fantastic moves that happen later, are you depriving yourself of big days..that could possibly offset bad, losing days? I know when trading live and I'm up good on the day, there is a strong desire not to give back my wins. So, many times if I have made what I feel is a decent amount, I stop trading. But then I miss some trades that would work well.
3. For the math to add up, knowing that in all setups there is a random distribution of wins and losses, can you know what your "batting average" is if you decide to quit because you won a few trades?
Also, if you are 30 to 40 ticks down..should you quit for the day and possibly miss out on a huge winner ..because of some max daily drawdown rule..that ignores the math of random distribution of wins and losses?
4. Should,at least on SIM, if one is testing a system...take all good setups each day that occur..regardless of wins or losses..over a period of time so they have a reliable set of statistics that accurately measures their skill level?

I would be interested in reading what some others on here think about these questions.

Lancelottrader here are my thoughts:

1/ No weekly limits on the upside however different story for the downside...

2/ This is not really a weekly limit it is rather after a big day or two very careful or no trading for the rest of the week. Careful trading day(s) is for to mitigate the "I am invincible" affect. Especially after big days one has to be very careful and keep monitoring physiological state. Usually people get complacent after a series of wins and that is when the market will humble anyone. And yes I have personal experience on this area more than once or twice.

3/ Daily goals yap...
ex. CL these days I believe over 50 ticks per contract is pushing ones luck. It just mentally dangerous to go further because additional trades usually would happen middle of the day when things are lot less predictable and a lot more games are played to pick pocket less capitalized and or novice players.
They are exceptional days when every pull back is a buy or a sell but those are usually once or twice a month at most.
4/ On the money management for losses "Fiercely protect your capital" of course.

5/ Sim, sometimes I do just to check out how the real life decision making process goes while waiting the right side of the chart to develop. However clearly one does not have the same emotional aspects as with skin in the trade.

Hope this helps,

atata

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 lancelottrader 
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atata View Post
Lancelottrader here are my thoughts:

1/ No weekly limits on the upside however different story for the downside...

2/ This is not really a weekly limit it is rather after a big day or two very careful or no trading for the rest of the week. Careful trading day(s) is for to mitigate the "I am invincible" affect. Especially after big days one has to be very careful and keep monitoring physiological state. Usually people get complacent after a series of wins and that is when the market will humble anyone. And yes I have personal experience on this area more than once or twice.

3/ Daily goals yap...
ex. CL these days I believe over 50 ticks per contract is pushing ones luck. It just mentally dangerous to go further because additional trades usually would happen middle of the day when things are lot less predictable and a lot more games are played to pick pocket less capitalized and or novice players.
They are exceptional days when every pull back is a buy or a sell but those are usually once or twice a month at most.
4/ On the money management for losses "Fiercely protect your capital" of course.

5/ Sim, sometimes I do just to check out how the real life decision making process goes while waiting the right side of the chart to develop. However clearly one does not have the same emotional aspects as with skin in the trade.

Hope this helps,

atata

Great analysis. Thanks.

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 lancelottrader 
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Having a great day.(actually the weeks has been very good as well). So many pullback and trend re-entry opportunities.

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 lancelottrader 
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Some of the same trades as shown on my 2 range chart..which I also watch.

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 Okina 
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Hello @lancelottrader,

I have a very general question, if we exclude the "human error" I would like to know in average what % of your setups failed, and by failed I means price go 5 to 10T in the "good" direction and reverse and go more than 15T against it?

I have another general question: let's say that you enter in a trade with a strong order flow, your are now in positive territory but suddenly the order flow is quiet and the market seems to hoover around the the same level. Do you exit that trade with a small profit or do you wait to see if the move and the order flow resume latter?

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 lancelottrader 
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Okina View Post
Hello @lancelottrader,

I have a very general question, if we exclude the "human error" I would like to know in average what % of your setups failed, and by failed I means price go 5 to 10T in the "good" direction and reverse and go more than 15T against it?

I have another general question: let's say that you enter in a trade with a strong order flow, your are now in positive territory but suddenly the order flow is quiet and the market seems to hoover around the the same level. Do you exit that trade with a small profit or do you wait to see if the move and the order flow resume latter?

Thanks.

Honestly, I haven't calculated my percentage of failed setups lately..I have refined my entries in the last month and my win percentage has definitely improved. I do sometimes have a 15 tick hard stop, but I seldom let my trade go 15 ticks against me. However, sometimes price can take a nasty bounce and go 8 or 9 ticks against you. It doesn't mean the trade is always a loser..but I use my discretion. If I feel the order flow has shifted I will try to usually get out with a maximum of 10 ticks. Only rarely will I take a full 15 tick stopout. I almost always never take profits less than 10 ticks. I have a lot of 20 tick winners too, and sometimes 30 to 40..but those are more rare.
If I am in a trade and the order flow stops, I will usually be patient and wait. Some trades can pause for a while..go 5 ticks or so against you..and then start up again and hit your target. Of course it's always less stressful when you have a quick win, but sometimes you have to be patient. After having many months of hitting a decent amount of ticks each week, I don't get too worried while I'm in a trade. I know if I keep taking the best setups, in the right conditions, the numbers will work out. If on some days I lose 2 or 3 trades in a row, then I know either I am off or the market is acting very strangely. I will probably stop trading unless something dramatic happens and I get a good opportunity. Often it is best to just shut things down and come back the next day.

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 bobwest 
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Great post. Sums up what I think every trader is trying to do.

Thanks for putting it so well.

Bob.

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 lancelottrader 
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In this one right now..

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Decided to just grab 10..

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 lancelottrader 
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Saw order flow coming in..if this takes out 44.10 (there should be stops under there from latecomers who entered long) ..price could move down sharply.

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Moved stop to breakeven..not too thrilled with this now.

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lancelottrader View Post
Saw order flow coming in..if this takes out 44.10 (there should be stops under there from latecomers who entered long) ..price could move down sharply.

Hi Lance - can you confirm why you didn't get short up around the 44.30 area when price moved through the "spine" and bars turned red? Were you waiting to clear the previous low at 44.20? Thanks.

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Hi Lance - can you confirm why you didn't get short up around the 44.30 area when price moved through the "spine" and bars turned red? Were you waiting to clear the previous low at 44.20? Thanks.

Exactly. First the order flow wasn't showing much strength at 44.30, plus I did want to see the previous swing low get taken out also.

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This time I got the 20 ticks.

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People who were short getting stops taken out..Trade moving up nice.

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Happy with the 10 tick scalp there.

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 lancelottrader 
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Those who have followed this thread may wonder why some of these trades deviate from my usual Black spine breaks ..and seem like very late entries. I still take plenty of my spine break trades..but I do need confirmation of strong order flow for them.
After studying months of charts and reviewing hours of my recorded sessions, I started seeing strong moves that seemed to make no structural sense. Price would be trending in a particular direction..and had not hit any serious support and resistance and then..out of nowhere..pick up speed and take off strongly in the opposite direction.
It happened time and time again. So I started watching what order flow was doing at these moments..I started looking at the trade locations. I started thinking about what other traders were doing instead of just following charts and price action.. Where were they entering ? If there was a pullback and a trend re-entry, where had all these traders put their stops? Where would they take profits? How would the combination of profit taking and then stops being hit..along with big players suddenly reversing their position look..especially on the intensity of the order flow coming in? Where would traders be trapped and have to liquidate?

So along with my usual price action entries, I now have other options..that take into consideration what happens in those situations I just described. I am seeing good results from this so far.

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 lancelottrader 
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This was pretty spontaneous...was reading e-mails and tick strike lit up and made a lot of noise...Saw the structure..liked it..did a quick checklist and jumped in..

Decided to take 20 ticks after some pausing and a small retracement.

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 Okina 
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lancelottrader View Post
Those who have followed this thread may wonder why some of these trades deviate from my usual Black spine breaks ..and seem like very late entries. I still take plenty of my spine break trades..but I do need confirmation of strong order flow for them.
After studying months of charts and reviewing hours of my recorded sessions, I started seeing strong moves that seemed to make no structural sense. Price would be trending in a particular direction..and had not hit any serious support and resistance and then..out of nowhere..pick up speed and take off strongly in the opposite direction.
It happened time and time again. So I started watching what order flow was doing at these moments..I started looking at the trade locations. I started thinking about what other traders were doing instead of just following charts and price action.. Where were they entering ? If there was a pullback and a trend re-entry, where had all these traders put their stops? Where would they take profits? How would the combination of profit taking and then stops being hit..along with big players suddenly reversing their position look..especially on the intensity of the order flow coming in? Where would traders be trapped and have to liquidate?

So along with my usual price action entries, I now have other options..that take into consideration what happens in those situations I just described. I am seeing good results from this so far.

Lance I guess that those kind of move are near level that a lot of traders look at like vwap, pivot etc...? I know you are not using those levels but a lot of people are and that could explain the volume and violent move around them.

And for example on you last 20T trade the market went down exactly to the 43.66 which is the eth vwap and rebound on it (and on the way down it also has made a rebounf on 43.95 with is the 5min opening range high a level that a lot of trade look at

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 lancelottrader 
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Okina View Post
Lance I guess that those kind of move are near level that a lot of traders look at like vwap, pivot etc...? I know you are not using those levels but a lot of people are and that could explain the volume and violent move around them.

Maybe..Guess sometimes I'm a little slow to catch on..lol

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 lancelottrader 
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15 tick scalp here.

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 lancelottrader 
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Calling it a day..have a good weekend everyone. Just one of those days I felt like posting..

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 Okina 
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15 tick scalp here.

Hehe you sold exactly at 43.66 ? and 43.66 was the Pivot point -

The break of the pivot has trigger a lot of sales and now it it is going back to it but slowly.

Your method with the order flow react at those point and it is perfectly logical - that is the reason why I added them on my charts - I don't play them outright but I watch especially the order flow when we are near them.

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 lancelottrader 
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Okina View Post
Hehe you sold exactly at 43.66 ? and 43.66 was the Pivot point -

The break of the pivot has trigger a lot of sales and now it it is going back to it but slowly.

Your method with the order flow react at those point and it is perfectly logical - that is the reason why I added them on my charts - I don't play them outright but I watch especially the order flow when we are near them.

I generally assign my own levels of importance to price areas..by my research. I also scroll carefully through the overnight session to see how many times price tested an area..how strong it reacted when it finally broke through. I code these levels with different shaded colors sometimes..wait for fails off of them..etc. When that aligns with extreme order flow.(100's of contracts coming in a short period of time)..plus making sure no strong price congestion is in the way of my target, then I have a valid setup.
It seems to work pretty good.

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 steve2222 
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Okina View Post
Hehe you sold exactly at 43.66 ? and 43.66 was the Pivot point -

And there is the problem .....

Assume you are talking DAILY, that is not the Pivot on my chart, so one of us is wrong

ETH is .57 and RTH is .48

I note Inletcap has .57 on one of his charts as well

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 dsperry 
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I have seen a lot of indicators and to me what you have looks like Guppy Multiple Moving Averages, but I though that on my chart set to 2 range and it didn't line up. Can you share what you are using? This looks interesting and simple. I'm so tired of trying to figure out all the charts...I'm looking to trade one chart what shows me the trend and allows me to stay with a trade.

Thanks,
DSP

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 lancelottrader 
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dsperry View Post
I have seen a lot of indicators and to me what you have looks like Guppy Multiple Moving Averages, but I though that on my chart set to 2 range and it didn't line up. Can you share what you are using? This looks interesting and simple. I'm so tired of trying to figure out all the charts...I'm looking to trade one chart what shows me the trend and allows me to stay with a trade.

Thanks,
DSP

I use an indicator called Rampage and others are from something called Logical Forex.

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 lancelottrader 
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I wanted to take a moment and acknowledge my appreciation for this forum. I think what Big Mike has put together here is an invaluable resource in terms of information and also I am thankful for many of the great people I have interacted with on here.
There have been several individuals who have selflessly offered their knowledge and time to try and help others along the way. I would name you, but I wouldn't want to accidentally leave anyone out. I have learned many things on here that have helped me progress as a trader and again I want to say thanks to Big Mike and everything he has done on here with Futures.io.

Yes, sometimes there are those people that you spend your time trying to help..explaining things in Private Messages..even making videos for..that obviously don't appreciate the effort..but in the end, it's all worth it. That's what "Paying it forward" means. On the other hand, when you have someone tell you, "My trading has really improved..and I owe it to you because of the things you showed me"...Well, that's a nice feeling.

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Hey Lance,
Through this point in your trading career, do you ever get Fear Of Missing Out in CL or other markets, especially when moves are so fast/volatile, and enter positions when your indicators are *almost* signalling a move, but not quite? I use a system similar to yours, but the psych-side of trading still gets me when trying to get into positions for a move.

Maybe it's my internet connection doing the psyching-out, heh (20M down, 10M up).

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 lancelottrader 
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Hey Lance,
Through this point in your trading career, do you ever get Fear Of Missing Out in CL or other markets, especially when moves are so fast/volatile, and enter positions when your indicators are *almost* signalling a move, but not quite? I use a system similar to yours, but the psych-side of trading still gets me when trying to get into positions for a move.

Maybe it's my internet connection doing the psyching-out, heh (20M down, 10M up).

Hi..Sorry for the late response. I just got back from a trip to New Mexico. Yes, I used to have the problem of worrying about missing a move. The market can be a constant source of temptation and it's hard to remain patient when it appears something is taking off and you're not on board.
I don't have as much of a problem with that now, because every trade has to fit a certain criteria or I don't enter. If I am wrong and it takes off without me, I don't feel any anger or frustration at all. What upsets me is when I jump into trades that are spontaneous or impulsive. I rarely do that these days, either. Some traders do things differently. They don't need much criteria to enter. They jump in..if it goes their way, they add on more contracts. If it goes against them, they may take 50 ticks of heat. That's not how I trade though.
I have always been a big believer in learning by spending hours of observation. I have watched Crude Oil for over 5 years in a row on a fairly similar chart setup, all along. This has given me a consistent frame of reference as opposed to those who change their charts on a weekly basis..and feel like they have found their Holy Grail because they had a few strong volatile days in a row. When conditions change (things get choppy), they switch to a new setup..and it goes on forever.
I have a different approach than most. I try to get in sync with what the market is doing at all times while I am actively trading. From my years of observation and watching my recorded trading sessions, I have found those moments that repeat themselves on a consistent basis. There are conditions that show up..that I have seen so many times..that it is fairly easy to tell (at least for a few minutes) what price is likely to do.
So, when I have a potential setup appearing, I do a quick checklist. If several adverse conditions are present, I will probably avoid the trade. Also, every 5 to 10 minutes I do an update. I will jot on a pad how price is moving, what type of conditions I am seeing, potential setups..how my emotional and cognitive processes are at that moment. I want to totally be in tune with the market at all times. This is one of the reasons I rarely post while I am trading anymore. I find it difficult to be "One" with the market..and do things like typing on a forum at the same time.
To me, the immediate market conditions are the main reason a setup wins or fails..and the more I am focused on those moment to moment conditions..the less losing trades I take. Yes, this is way different than just "fading the VWAP or high of day..etc." My goal is to wait for those moments that I have seen 1000's of time (and they usually involve strong, immediate momentum)and trade only at those times. I want to eliminate as much randomness as possible. I have 3 main setups, but I know the conditions those setups work best in..so I wait for them to appear.

This eliminates worrying about missing a move.

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 jakejake 
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Hi Lance,

Firstly I'd like to say thank you and how much I appreciate you putting in the effort of creating, and posting in this thread. I just finished reading the majority of it (started reading the posts from around 2012-2013) and there is a lot of useful information throughout.

I had a few questions after reading, and if the answer was already discussed earlier than I had began reading then please tell me and I will go back and read the beginning of the thread as well.

The main reason I began reading the thread was in order to get a better understanding of how people say they "feel" the price action. I assume this is acquired through years of screentime, but is there anything you could describe that I could watch for? In another thread on this site, I believe it was Peter Davies who mentioned a 'drill' where you watch the market orders coming in on your DOM and will pick up on certain things after doing this for multiple hours.

Do you watch for this price action on the DOM? Watching for bigger market orders to come in, pushing the market in a certain direction? Waiting for weak selling or weak buying in order to take the opposite position?

Basically what I'm trying to figure out is what sort of indication you see that says "buy" or "sell" confirming that there may be a quick move in either direction.

I apologize if these questions don't make much sense, as I'm struggling to put my thoughts into words, but either way, I greatly appreciate all you've done in this thread.

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  #795 (permalink)
 lancelottrader 
Legendary Market Wizard
west palm beach florida usa
 
Experience: Advanced
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Trading: NQ
 
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jakejake View Post
Hi Lance,

Firstly I'd like to say thank you and how much I appreciate you putting in the effort of creating, and posting in this thread. I just finished reading the majority of it (started reading the posts from around 2012-2013) and there is a lot of useful information throughout.

I had a few questions after reading, and if the answer was already discussed earlier than I had began reading then please tell me and I will go back and read the beginning of the thread as well.

The main reason I began reading the thread was in order to get a better understanding of how people say they "feel" the price action. I assume this is acquired through years of screentime, but is there anything you could describe that I could watch for? In another thread on this site, I believe it was Peter Davies who mentioned a 'drill' where you watch the market orders coming in on your DOM and will pick up on certain things after doing this for multiple hours.

Do you watch for this price action on the DOM? Watching for bigger market orders to come in, pushing the market in a certain direction? Waiting for weak selling or weak buying in order to take the opposite position?

Basically what I'm trying to figure out is what sort of indication you see that says "buy" or "sell" confirming that there may be a quick move in either direction.

I apologize if these questions don't make much sense, as I'm struggling to put my thoughts into words, but either way, I greatly appreciate all you've done in this thread.

Hi. One of the big differences between my trading now and in the early parts of my journal has been the incorporation of order flow. Before that, I was often able to ascertain the strength of a move mainly by observation. My 2 range line chart would take on a particular look and movement. I wasn't able to get the same "Feel" from candlecharts. This was simply a matter of noticing through observation (and reviewing recorded sessions) and correlation between the movement, speed etc. of the 2 range chart and the distance price would travel in a given period of time. I could generally tell very quickly on.. when that imbalance of order flow would occur and the buyers or sellers would start to come in. However, I also found that CL could produce these seemingly random spikes..which I would jump into that had no follow through. Even worse, they would suddenly reverse and move sharply the opposite way. I nicknamed those moves, "Spikefoolery." lol

Then I started using an indicator called Tick Strike which has a visual and audible meter that sounds loudly and lights up bars..according to strength of order flow. I found it to be helpful and I also incorporated volume charts set to small time frames like 10 second charts. So between the tick strike and the volume charts plus price action setups, I started seeing more consistency. And as I have mentioned frequently in this thread, keeping myself "in the moment" by doing a verbal. constant commentary of what I am perceiving (in real time) price to be doing. Is it making little jolts..and then going no where?..Is it failing off of every small pocket of price congestion? Is price moving with authority and speed?..or is it just bouncing around? Am I detecting any changes in overall order flow and movement? What is the Macro trend? Is there a microtrend within the macrotrend? Is there a pullback on a larger timeframe..or perhaps a pullback on an immediate momentum move? Where do I think many traders have entered? Where are their stops? What happens if those stops get taken out and tons of volume comes in?
So between my moment to moment observations using a variety of time frames, my Tick strike and volume charts ..and my constant use of "what if" scenarios, I am always ready when those opportunities occur.

Failure is not an option
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  #796 (permalink)
 jakejake 
Toronto Canada
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Charts
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 62 since Jan 2015
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lancelottrader View Post
Hi. One of the big differences between my trading now and in the early parts of my journal has been the incorporation of order flow. Before that, I was often able to ascertain the strength of a move mainly by observation. My 2 range line chart would take on a particular look and movement. I wasn't able to get the same "Feel" from candlecharts. This was simply a matter of noticing through observation (and reviewing recorded sessions) and correlation between the movement, speed etc. of the 2 range chart and the distance price would travel in a given period of time. I could generally tell very quickly on.. when that imbalance of order flow would occur and the buyers or sellers would start to come in. However, I also found that CL could produce these seemingly random spikes..which I would jump into that had no follow through. Even worse, they would suddenly reverse and move sharply the opposite way. I nicknamed those moves, "Spikefoolery." lol

Then I started using an indicator called Tick Strike which has a visual and audible meter that sounds loudly and lights up bars..according to strength of order flow. I found it to be helpful and I also incorporated volume charts set to small time frames like 10 second charts. So between the tick strike and the volume charts plus price action setups, I started seeing more consistency. And as I have mentioned frequently in this thread, keeping myself "in the moment" by doing a verbal. constant commentary of what I am perceiving (in real time) price to be doing. Is it making little jolts..and then going no where?..Is it failing off of every small pocket of price congestion? Is price moving with authority and speed?..or is it just bouncing around? Am I detecting any changes in overall order flow and movement? What is the Macro trend? Is there a microtrend within the macrotrend? Is there a pullback on a larger timeframe..or perhaps a pullback on an immediate momentum move? Where do I think many traders have entered? Where are their stops? What happens if those stops get taken out and tons of volume comes in?
So between my moment to moment observations using a variety of time frames, my Tick strike and volume charts ..and my constant use of "what if" scenarios, I am always ready when those opportunities occur.

Awesome, thank you very much for the detailed response. I really appreciate it. I opened up a 2range chart and a 10 second chart with volume on the bottom for todays session and just watched and tried to make notes of what was going on. I found the 10 second chart helped quite a bit, while I'm still trying to figure out the 2 range chart. I also like the thought of narrorating verbally what was going on while I was watching as it kept me focussed the whole time.

Although I'm just demoing currently trying to figure out the price action, I was finding some good success on NQ today as that was my main market I've focussed on. I realize demoing is nothing like trading live but I'd prefer to understand the price action and get rid of all the kinks before jumping in live with this stuff. I haven't traded CL as much, but I'm looking into it now.

My trading style consists of volume profile (low volume nodes), support/resistance while I'm currently trying to add price action confirmation which helped today.

Once again, thanks very much and I hope you have a great weekend!

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  #797 (permalink)
 tabrun 
South Africa
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: ninjatrader
Trading: es
 
Posts: 33 since Nov 2011
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Wow, wow this thread is a breath of fresh air, thank you. I have watched all the videos and read the whole thread, time well spend.

I see you have recently being using UniRenko. Could you give feedback and/or explanation on this use

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  #798 (permalink)
 lancelottrader 
Legendary Market Wizard
west palm beach florida usa
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: ninja trader
Broker: Optimus Futures/ Rithmic
Trading: NQ
 
Posts: 1,044 since Oct 2011
Thanks: 1,029 given, 4,785 received


tabrun View Post
Wow, wow this thread is a breath of fresh air, thank you. I have watched all the videos and read the whole thread, time well spend.

I see you have recently being using UniRenko. Could you give feedback and/or explanation on this use

Honestly, my use of the UniRenko has been very recent. It has been more experimental than anything else. I tried it and liked the way it smoothed price movement to some degree. I watch it in conjunction with my 2 range line chart, 1 minute and 5 minute candlecharts. I will probably have more feedback after another month of use.
Thanks for your nice words.

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  #799 (permalink)
 IzhakHaim 
white plains new york
 
 
Posts: 66 since Apr 2016

Hi all,

I am getting a daily email from a Pro9Trader, shows winning 2-4 trades every day in oil and other futures.

Never got an email that shows a down day. (the real "Holy Grail"????)

They use 3 EMA (10,20,50), Renko 14 bars and some kind of Stoch' on the second panel.

Does any1 familiar with the stoch' setting on the second panel? (pic attached)

Many thanks.

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  #800 (permalink)
 crossover 
Belgium
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: ninja
 
Posts: 126 since Jun 2009
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Hi,

Look at this link for vendors



ps: not the "holy grail"



crossover




IzhakHaim View Post
Hi all,

I am getting a daily email from a Pro9Trader, shows winning 2-4 trades every day in oil and other futures.

Never got an email that shows a down day. (the real "Holy Grail"????)

They use 3 EMA (10,20,50), Renko 14 bars and some kind of Stoch' on the second panel.

Does any1 familiar with the stoch' setting on the second panel? (pic attached)

Many thanks.


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