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The Crude Dude Oil Trading System


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The Crude Dude Oil Trading System

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  #301 (permalink)
west palm beach florida usa
 
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How are your fills with 5 contracts?

So far so good. I credit a lot of that with my broker, Optimus. I traded 10 contracts in Cl with them a few years ago for a very short period of time and got great fills.. even with that much. Then I did some dumb things..lost quite a bit of money..and decided to start over at 1 contract untill I really felt I knew what I was doing. Hopefully things will go better this time as I work my way back up.

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  #302 (permalink)
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lancelottrader View Post
So far so good. I credit a lot of that with my broker, Optimus. I traded 10 contracts in Cl with them a few years ago for a very short period of time and got great fills.. even with that much. Then I did some dumb things..lost quite a bit of money..and decided to start over at 1 contract untill I really felt I knew what I was doing. Hopefully things will go better this time as I work my way back up.

When trading futures, your fills are on a centralized marketplace and should not vary from one broker to another. The only thing that changes on the broker side would be the risk assessment prior to allowing the order to be submitted to the exchange, and it is usually measured in nanoseconds.

You can credit the broker for service, you can even credit them for data if they have their own FCM gateway server, but you shouldn't credit them for fills. This isn't Forex!

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  #303 (permalink)
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When trading futures, your fills are on a centralized marketplace and should not vary from one broker to another. The only thing that changes on the broker side would be the risk assessment prior to allowing the order to be submitted to the exchange, and it is usually measured in nanoseconds.

You can credit the broker for service, you can even credit them for data if they have their own FCM gateway server, but you shouldn't credit them for fills. This isn't Forex!

Mike

I wasn't aware of that. I did have some horrible experiences with a couple of Forex brokers..regarding fills, now that you mention it.

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  #304 (permalink)
 
 
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Amongst the many things that differentiate one broker from another, the choice of software offered by a broker for use by its account holders cannot be underestimated. Yes the time taken to perform a pre-trade risk assessment is generally insignificant, but it is the total time taken by the software from receipt of an order to its release to the exchange that is often the difference between profit and loss.

Traders who maintain accounts with brokers who are sensitive to the differences in software and offer the use of the faster platforms may find that they do, in fact, get better fills.

Matt
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Trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You may lose more than your initial investment. All posts are opinions and do not claim to be facts. Please conduct your own due diligence. Use only Risk capital when trading Futures.
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  #305 (permalink)
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Here is today's short recap video.


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  #306 (permalink)
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Congratulations!

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  #307 (permalink)
west palm beach florida usa
 
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Recap video for Monday's trades. Looking to try and hit my minimum of 60 ticks for the week again..or higher.


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  #308 (permalink)
west palm beach florida usa
 
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I didn't really want to post this...I made a lot of mistakes, but I've committed to do these videos for the rest of the week.


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  #309 (permalink)
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A little bit of redemption today.


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  #310 (permalink)
west palm beach florida usa
 
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This is the final recap for my two week experiment in transparency. It was a little bit stressful..knowing I was going to "put myself out there" and show these videos of my recorded sessions. But I wanted to stick to my commitment to post them..regardless if I failed or succeeded.


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  #311 (permalink)
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Hi Lancelottrader,

I watch your video each time and I found that very interesting. You are a good trader and keep up the nice work.

I'm happy for you that your transition for 5 contracts work well.

So I'm interested to see more video and by the fact like you said I think it a good learning process to stay on the good path to fallow your rule. I think if the temptation of breaking your rules come back, and you know you have to show us the video, you will will think twice before doing it

Congrat for your success

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  #312 (permalink)
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Hi Lancelottrader,

I watch your video each time and I found that very interesting. You are a good trader and keep up the nice work.

I'm happy for you that your transition for 5 contracts work well.

So I'm interested to see more video and by the fact like you said I think it a good learning process to stay on the good path to fallow your rule. I think if the temptation of breaking your rules come back, and you know you have to show us the video, you will will think twice before doing it

Congrat for your success

Thank you for your encouraging words. I really appreciate it and I'm glad you have liked the videos.

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  #313 (permalink)
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Lancelottrader,

first post and i have been a long time lurker. I want to thank you for your videos and i do appreciate them and watch every video. It just demonstrates that there are different styles of traders that can achieve success if you follow your rules which you define. It takes guts to show your losses and your mistakes on video and discuss why you took the trades. I hope you continue to make the videos because i learn something new each session. My hats off to you and i wish you much future success!

-Pivotaltrader

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  #314 (permalink)
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Hi Lance,

Love your videos and trading style.

What's that tick sound indicator on the right side of the screen? Where can I get it?

Thanx!

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  #315 (permalink)
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Lancelottrader,

first post and i have been a long time lurker. I want to thank you for your videos and i do appreciate them and watch every video. It just demonstrates that there are different styles of traders that can achieve success if you follow your rules which you define. It takes guts to show your losses and your mistakes on video and discuss why you took the trades. I hope you continue to make the videos because i learn something new each session. My hats off to you and i wish you much future success!

-Pivotaltrader

Thanks for your feedback.

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  #316 (permalink)
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wshi88 View Post
Hi Lance,

Love your videos and trading style.

What's that tick sound indicator on the right side of the screen? Where can I get it?

Thanx!

It's called Tick Strike..I think if you google it, you'll find where to get it.

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  #317 (permalink)
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I came into the day only needing about 5 ticks to hit my minimum 60 tick weekly goal. I wasn't planning on trading unless I felt there were some pretty good setups. Won 10 ticks on first trade. Scratched the 2nd trade and won another 10 on the 3rd trade. So finished up +75 ticks on the week after commissions. Charts are below.

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  #318 (permalink)
west palm beach florida usa
 
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Today is the type of day when you have to be more agressive and really try to extract as much as you can from the market. It became very obvious early on that Cl was in a huge uptrend.
This is a day where you have to go for bigger targets and forget about 10 tick scalps...and weekly goals. You don't get days like this too often. You just ride out the swings..wait for nice pullbacks and hop back aboard the train. I had a great day.

It also made me realize how important it is to adjust your strategy for what type of conditions you get. Some days the best way to play the market is to wait for price to fail at support and resistance and play little reverse scalps. Oil often respects these areas and tips it's hand when it is going to fail. Other days you can get extended periods where price moves randomly and is noisy. I try to stay out unless I see a real change in price action.

So, to me..the number one thing is to try and ascertain as early in the session as possible what type of conditions are underway..and if we are in a consolidation phase, the early stage of a reversal..or a pullback. This is one of the reasons every 5 minutes or so, I will scribble on a notebook what type of conditions the market is in. The more I describe the prevailing price movement by speaking out loud or in writing, the more in tune I get. If I rely on my silent thoughts, I don't seem to do as well. Maybe it's my ADHD (I think I have it, although I haven't bothered to get diagnosed)..but I am way more focused by articulating what I think the market is doing.

I have also resumed SIM trading Gold. My setups and system work well on it when there is some volatility. If I continue to do well, I will go live with that in the near future..along with my Cl trading.

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  #319 (permalink)
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Beautiful trend today..
282 tick move since 9 am.

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lancelottrader View Post
...
I have also resumed SIM trading Gold. My setups and system work well on it when there is some volatility. If I continue to do well, I will go live with that in the near future..along with my Cl trading.

I'm currently trading 8 different markets. I personally stay away from gold because it seems to have flash crashes too frequently. For example, take a look at the 7/19/15 intraday chart of gold.

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lancelottrader View Post
So, to me..the number one thing is to try and ascertain as early in the session as possible what type of conditions are underway..and if we are in a consolidation phase, the early stage of a reversal..or a pullback. This is one of the reasons every 5 minutes or so, I will scribble on a notebook what type of conditions the market is in. The more I describe the prevailing price movement by speaking out loud or in writing, the more in tune I get. If I rely on my silent thoughts, I don't seem to do as well.

That's a very good idea. I'll try something like it and see if it helps in staying focused.

Thanks.

Bob.

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  #322 (permalink)
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Sazon View Post
I'm currently trading 8 different markets. I personally stay away from gold because it seems to have flash crashes too frequently. For example, take a look at the 7/19/15 intraday chart of gold.

I saw that chart..pretty crazy! I've traded it off and on for while..so I've seen it do a lot of extremely sharp, fast moves. I'm just monitoring it again. I probably won't go live with it unless I get some consistent results. Thanks for the heads up.

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  #323 (permalink)
west palm beach florida usa
 
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In this video, I talk about the biggest problem I have tried to overcome in my trading. It deals with psychological issues that I'm sure many other traders experience as well.

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  #324 (permalink)
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You look like your dad. Thanks!

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  #325 (permalink)
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Great video! It sums up exactly where I have been for the last several months. Thanks for sharing!

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  #326 (permalink)
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Great video! It sums up exactly where I have been for the last several months. Thanks for sharing!

I'm glad it was helpful.

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  #327 (permalink)
west palm beach florida usa
 
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Unbelievable strength in Oil today. I did well..but left a lot of money on the table. I had several opportunities I didn't take because I was way up on the day..and didn't want to give anything back. That's an amateur mindset. If the market is offering these kind of moves..you have to keep taking them. This could have been a 100-150 tick day easily and I settled for 55 ticks.

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  #328 (permalink)
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lancelottrader View Post
Unbelievable strength in Oil today. I did well..but left a lot of money on the table. I had several opportunities I didn't take because I was way up on the day..and didn't want to give anything back. That's an amateur mindset. If the market is offering these kind of moves..you have to keep taking them. This could have been a 100-150 tick day easily and I settled for 55 ticks.

Update 12:20 pm est...Went back in and made another 20 ticks. So made 75 today. Not too bad.

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Update: 12:41

Two more wins. Probably my best day ever!

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9:34 am 9/1/15 Just a heads up to anyone trading Cl today. This is what I call chaotic volatility. Very difficult price movement to trade. Be careful!

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  #331 (permalink)
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Thanks for sharing

You did very well yesterday and I hope so you're doing well today too even if it difficult

Nice trading

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Dervakon View Post
Thanks for sharing

You did very well yesterday and I hope so you're doing well today too even if it difficult

Nice trading

Actually, not trading very well today. I've made a few good trades..but too many poor ones. Even worse, I failed to follow my rules and entry criteria a few times. I shouldn't be still making mistakes like that at this point. Anyhow, about 20 ticks down right now. I was worse earlier.

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-20 tick it not a bad day if you look at yesterday

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This video deals with Trade management and how I alter the way I manage and view trades according to Market conditions.


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I wanted to share an entry I made from my personal trade journal I keep. This was after a few weeks of poor performance. If any of you are going through a period like this, I think you will relate to how I was feeling. Since I am seeing some light at the end of the tunnel, I am glad I hung in there. Here it is:

It is the end of August 2014, and I am not sure if I should continue my trading endeavor. I am extremely depressed. I have put everything into this. I have spent the last several years trying everything I can to master this. I have several good weeks in a row...but then I still can't seem to handle the choppy, chaotic days. I know my system works best in certain market conditions but I seem unable to stop myself from trading..even when those conditions don't exist. This week I failed to even honor my maximum daily drawdown. My reasoning at the moment was, "Why should I stop trading just because I'm down 40 ticks or so..If I'm really as good as I think, then I should just keep taking all good setups." I finally stopped after being down 100 ticks. All my rules went out the window..stopped announcing my setups, stopped doing my pre-trade checklist..everything! If I can't control myself any better than this, I have to stop! As they say, this won't end well. Although I feel I have some good skills, my psychology is probably not suited for this. I'm starting to wish I had never gone into this. Trading is not my thing, obviously. I know I have to give this up and it is making me incredibly sad. What's really pathetic is that I think I really know how to trade well, but I always have these days when I do something extremely stupid...or maybe i should say ..INSANE!! I really think I have to quit and I need to figure out something else to do. This has gone on too long.

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  #336 (permalink)
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crude fell down thrice from 48.40 to 49.2

48+ good rate to short it

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I wanted to share an entry I made from my personal trade journal I keep. This was after a few weeks of poor performance. If any of you are going through a period like this, I think you will relate to how I was feeling. Since I am seeing some light at the end of the tunnel, I am glad I hung in there. Here it is:

It is the end of August 2014, and I am not sure if I should continue my trading endeavor. I am extremely depressed. I have put everything into this. I have spent the last several years trying everything I can to master this. I have several good weeks in a row...but then I still can't seem to handle the choppy, chaotic days. I know my system works best in certain market conditions but I seem unable to stop myself from trading..even when those conditions don't exist. This week I failed to even honor my maximum daily drawdown. My reasoning at the moment was, "Why should I stop trading just because I'm down 40 ticks or so..If I'm really as good as I think, then I should just keep taking all good setups." I finally stopped after being down 100 ticks. All my rules went out the window..stopped announcing my setups, stopped doing my pre-trade checklist..everything! If I can't control myself any better than this, I have to stop! As they say, this won't end well. Although I feel I have some good skills, my psychology is probably not suited for this. I'm starting to wish I had never gone into this. Trading is not my thing, obviously. I know I have to give this up and it is making me incredibly sad. What's really pathetic is that I think I really know how to trade well, but I always have these days when I do something extremely stupid...or maybe i should say ..INSANE!! I really think I have to quit and I need to figure out something else to do. This has gone on too long.

Just as over-optimism is a mistake, so is over-pessimism. Reality is somewhere in between.

Good that you hung in. Looks like it's worked out well....

Bob.

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  #338 (permalink)
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lancelottrader View Post
I wanted to share an entry I made from my personal trade journal I keep. This was after a few weeks of poor performance. If any of you are going through a period like this, I think you will relate to how I was feeling. Since I am seeing some light at the end of the tunnel, I am glad I hung in there. Here it is:

It is the end of August 2014, and I am not sure if I should continue my trading endeavor. I am extremely depressed. I have put everything into this. I have spent the last several years trying everything I can to master this. I have several good weeks in a row...but then I still can't seem to handle the choppy, chaotic days. I know my system works best in certain market conditions but I seem unable to stop myself from trading..even when those conditions don't exist. This week I failed to even honor my maximum daily drawdown. My reasoning at the moment was, "Why should I stop trading just because I'm down 40 ticks or so..If I'm really as good as I think, then I should just keep taking all good setups." I finally stopped after being down 100 ticks. All my rules went out the window..stopped announcing my setups, stopped doing my pre-trade checklist..everything! If I can't control myself any better than this, I have to stop! As they say, this won't end well. Although I feel I have some good skills, my psychology is probably not suited for this. I'm starting to wish I had never gone into this. Trading is not my thing, obviously. I know I have to give this up and it is making me incredibly sad. What's really pathetic is that I think I really know how to trade well, but I always have these days when I do something extremely stupid...or maybe i should say ..INSANE!! I really think I have to quit and I need to figure out something else to do. This has gone on too long.

I want to say Thank you for sharing this,

Because what you have write is the same thing I'm going thru now. This post is exactly what I feel about trading. I don't want to give up because I near the goal. I just miss something... the funny thing is we're at the end of August 2015

Now that your're successful what was your turning point to becoming consistent ?

What is the process you did to overcome all your bad behavior

Thanks again

When you want to succeed as bad as you want to breathe, then you will be successful
-Eric Thomas
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covered 46.50

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  #340 (permalink)
west palm beach florida usa
 
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Dervakon View Post
I want to say Thank you for sharing this,

Because what you have write is the same thing I'm going thru now. This post is exactly what I feel about trading. I don't want to give up because I near the goal. I just miss something... the funny thing is we're at the end of August 2015

Now that your're successful what was your turning point to becoming consistent ?

What is the process you did to overcome all your bad behavior

Thanks again

I'm sorry you are going through a similar issue. I know how depressing it can be. I think if you saw my video from August 29 on the previous page of this thread, I explain some of the things I did to overcome my issues.

Another thing I did was to try and do a vocal commentary (almost like I was conducting a trade room) where I describe at all times what price is doing and what possible setups are occurring. Before I could take an entry I had to quickly announce the name of the setup (I have about 4 different setups with specific names), my potential target and stop...and quickly list any valid reasons for not taking the trade. These reasons may be: choppy price action, support or resistance in the way of target, insufficient volume and momentum, possible news event about to come out, or price having moved to far already from a good entry...etc. By saying these things out loud, it helped me in two ways. One's thoughts and emotions can get jumbled while watching price move.. and by stating entries out loud, you can have better focus and control. Also, when I reviewed my trade recordings, I could actually hear my reasons for taking a trade, instead of guessing what I was thinking. I don't know if doing this would help most people, but for my type of brain, it definitely helped me.

Good luck with your trading.

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  #341 (permalink)
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lancelottrader View Post
I wanted to share an entry I made from my personal trade journal I keep. This was after a few weeks of poor performance. If any of you are going through a period like this, I think you will relate to how I was feeling. Since I am seeing some light at the end of the tunnel, I am glad I hung in there. Here it is:

It is the end of August 2014, and I am not sure if I should continue my trading endeavor. I am extremely depressed. I have put everything into this. I have spent the last several years trying everything I can to master this. I have several good weeks in a row...but then I still can't seem to handle the choppy, chaotic days. I know my system works best in certain market conditions but I seem unable to stop myself from trading..even when those conditions don't exist. This week I failed to even honor my maximum daily drawdown. My reasoning at the moment was, "Why should I stop trading just because I'm down 40 ticks or so..If I'm really as good as I think, then I should just keep taking all good setups." I finally stopped after being down 100 ticks. All my rules went out the window..stopped announcing my setups, stopped doing my pre-trade checklist..everything! If I can't control myself any better than this, I have to stop! As they say, this won't end well. Although I feel I have some good skills, my psychology is probably not suited for this. I'm starting to wish I had never gone into this. Trading is not my thing, obviously. I know I have to give this up and it is making me incredibly sad. What's really pathetic is that I think I really know how to trade well, but I always have these days when I do something extremely stupid...or maybe i should say ..INSANE!! I really think I have to quit and I need to figure out something else to do. This has gone on too long.

This is very much appreciated. There are lots of use hiding out there the bushes and do not want to be seen or heard, just of fear of being told we are not good at trading and we better get ourselves a true PHYSICAL job. By that I mean work for some one else, get up in the morning and go to work, drive in the traffic, deal with some demanding employer / boss...etc... I just had the same thoughts you had in August of last year. But I am starting to turn the corner. Watching your recent video was also a great encouragement. Thanks again.

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  #342 (permalink)
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This recap gives a few tips on how to trade CL on a day like today where you have some fast up and down price swings.


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  #343 (permalink)
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Two instances of not following my rules cost me today. I see I am still capable of doing foolish, impulsive things.

I will do everything humanly possible not to let this happen again.

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  #344 (permalink)
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The original name of this thread was, "How I catch runners on Cl and TF". I recently changed it since I hadn't traded TF in a couple of years. I have been looking at it lately and reviewed a few months of charts. I had forgotten how well that it often moves and that my system works very well on it.

I also have come to the conclusion that exclusively trading Cl isn't probably the best course of action for me. There are days when the price action almost guarantees every trade I take will be a loser, but since I haven't been focusing on any other instruments..I get tempted into less than optimal trades. I tried for a while SIM trading NQ..but the point value being half of CL would mean double the contracts to get the same profit per tick. I'm not a huge fan of the ES .

I took some live trades on TF today and did well. I used a small contract size since I haven't traded it in a while. I may try this for the next couple of weeks. If CL is behaving in an erratic manner on a particular day, it would be nice to have an alternative instrument to trade. However, watching two instruments at one time is usually the most I will do. For my type of entries..too many instruments would be counterproductive .

I don't want to change things too much since I have been getting pretty good results. However I could possibly have even better results if I have the opportunity to trade two instruments and wait untill one of them is showing the type of market conditions that I know works for my system.

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  #345 (permalink)
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Thank you for your update.

I'd love to see your TF chart settings.

Thanx!

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  #346 (permalink)
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wshi88 View Post
Thank you for your update.

I'd love to see your TF chart settings.

Thanx!

My settings are basically the same as I use for CL. This video I made today shows some details.


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  #347 (permalink)
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Here's basically what my charts look like spread over two monitors. On the right side I have my 2 range entry charts and on the left, I have the instruments viewed in higher timeframes.

After plotting all relevant price levels and putting together a trade plan, I watch a maximum of three instruments . Right now, my main focus is still Cl..but I am also watching GC and TF. I have decided to only trade CL live this week..but if SIM trading on the other instruments shows good results, I will go live soon with them as well.

Even though I have been doing well with CL, I feel I have the ability to trade these other instruments also. I specialize in markets that are moving with momentum and if there is a long patch where CL is slow..or choppy , it makes sense to take advantage of something else if it is moving. At any given moment, I only want the best setups..in terms of volatility and price action setups. I am very good at recognizing those moments and capitalizing on them. My problem has been not being patient enough to only trade those moments. When watching only one instrument, there can be numerous temptations that are sub optimal.

Today, the markets weren't extremely strong..but I was still able to make close to 40 ticks on Cl..and on SIM between Gold and TF , I made about 58 ticks. Also, I only traded one instrument at a time. I assume I'll be at full leverage on all instruments, so I will only go in one instrument at a time. So, I stuck to that premise today..even though I was on SIM for TF and GC.

I use price alerts a lot. If I am looking at an instrument, I will set price alerts at possible entry areas before looking at another instrument. This way, if my attention is diverted for even a brief moment I will have an audible alert. This will help with not missing a good move if several markets get active simultaneously.

I felt trading this way today kept me very focused. Sometimes, if I'm watching only Crude and nothing is happening..my attention can drift. But everything is still the same...all trades are announced and checklisted.
I'll know for sure by the end of this week if trading multiple instruments works better for me than only trading CL.

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  #348 (permalink)
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Thanks for the charts.

I highly recommend the use of anaVWAP indicator. Today TF touched it 5 times, every time price touched it, it came right back down.

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  #349 (permalink)
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wshi88 View Post
Thanks for the charts.

I highly recommend the use of anaVWAP indicator. Today TF touched it 5 times, every time price touched it, it came right back down.

He don't need the VWAP the way he trade. I know it a great indicator and I use it my self and I love it.

He has is own method and it work perfectly for him that way.

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  #350 (permalink)
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Longtime ago I trade the TF but I was on unirenko bar, since I learn to use more volume bar.

Because you have talk about it, I restart to take a look a it.

I think it will work really good the way, I trade.

Today I make good profit in Sim and I can trade it like the CL

Hope so the TF work fine for you

Thanks again for sharing your ideas

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  #351 (permalink)
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ZB (30 year bond) is another instrument that trends real well, today morning (9/15) is a perfect example.

I use 1 Range bar and Unirenko bar charts, mainly trade retracements.

It's slow (compared to CL/TF) and steady.

Low commission, high tick value.


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west palm beach florida usa
 
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wshi88 View Post
Thanks for the charts.

I highly recommend the use of anaVWAP indicator. Today TF touched it 5 times, every time price touched it, it came right back down.

Out of curiosity, where do you find that ? To be honest, I rarely plot out VWAPs and market profile related info.

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  #353 (permalink)
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Download link here:

https://futures.io/download/ninjatrader-7/indicators/674-download.html?view

I use Jigsaw for market profile graph, but VWAP is non-distracting, more visual. It's extremely important to me when trading ZB.

The dashed brown line in the above image is the VWAP line, very interesting to see how price reacts around that line.

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  #354 (permalink)
west palm beach florida usa
 
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wshi88 View Post
Download link here:

https://futures.io/download/ninjatrader-7/indicators/674-download.html?view

I use Jigsaw for market profile graph, but VWAP is non-distracting, more visual. It's extremely important to me when trading ZB.

The dashed brown line in the above image is the VWAP line, very interesting to see how price reacts around that line.

Thanks for the link. I downloaded the indicator and applied it to a few charts. Honestly, though..I don't think it will be something I will use. ...especially since none of the colors and lines mean anything to me. I really don't see any point in changing anything up. However, I sincerely appreciate you giving me the link.

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  #355 (permalink)
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You can only keep the main VWAP line, hide all other lines to be transparent.

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  #356 (permalink)
west palm beach florida usa
 
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I am finding some success trading TF and GC along with Cl. It has taken a little adjustment in getting used to the different ways these instruments move . The most consistent trades for me are always the one's that have real strength behind them.
TF is a little trickier to time in since you don't always get the same type of retracements as Oil. Often when Oil makes a fresh reversal and the volatilty picks up, there is usually a small pullback opportunity to be had. You get the strong first impulse wave and then you can get the 2nd wave moves very consistently.

TF can make a move and then travel in a fairly vertical manner without any real pullback. So, if the volume is there, there are some nice runners to be had...but you have to catch the move early on. If not, you end up waiting for a pullback that never comes. The good news is that you can enter slightly late and not have price suddenly back up on you 10 or 15 ticks..like it often does with oil. With oil, you have to be meticulous with your timing or else you need to drastically widen your stop (which I seldom do.)

Gold can spend huge amounts of time doing nothing, and then suddenly take off. Kind of reminds me of my pet monitor lizard (in the pic below.) lol

Today's Gold chart shows why I am happy I have been keeping my eye on it. I hit my live CL goal already this week, so trading it tommorow is optional. I will SIM practice either way on TF and GC . I hope to go live with them very soon.

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  #357 (permalink)
west palm beach florida usa
 
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When you see price about to hit your stop...how do you feel? Tense, Angry...Upset? Try a little silliness.



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  #358 (permalink)
west palm beach florida usa
 
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Ok..some of you may have watched the video I posted yesterday and thought, "This guy has really flipped out." Yes, I admit the video is quite absurd...but there's a reason for that.

A few days back, I was in the midst of having a trade hit my stop..and my girlfriend apparently was watching me from outside my office. She said, "You should see your face right now. You look like you are about to get killed or something."

It made me realize how strong I react emotionally when I am taking a loss. I definitely feel my adrenaline start to surge. Now with more contracts, the reaction is even stronger.

One thing I have always done is try to find solutions to my trading issues...even if they are unconventional. Sometimes you have to do some strange things to interrupt your pattern. So as I mention in the video, I now smile (and sometimes laugh a bit) as my stop is getting hit. Believe it or not, this seems to derail the whole anger/adrenaline problem I get from losing a trade.

I have the confidence of knowing if I follow my system and all it's steps 100%, I can hit my goals virtually every week. The steps are :

1. Doing my research and putting together a basic trading plan for the day before the markets open.

2. Doing a constant verbal commentary on the state of the market and describing several "what if scenarios."

3. Announcing the type of setup before entering a trade ( a rare exception is an extreme sudden momentum move where I need to enter immediately).

4. Doing a quick checklist before taking a trade to see if there are any valid reasons not to enter.

5. After two consecutive losses, taking a brief timeout. I then regroup , assess my emotional state and re-examine my trade plan and market conditions.

6. If I hit my max daily drawdown, I must shut down my platform and P.C.s. If necessary, place my modem in a special safe I have that will only open after a programmed time has elapsed.

If all these steps are done, I know I will be consistently profitable. If I skip any of the steps, then it is likely I end up like the majority of traders who are not profitable.

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  #359 (permalink)
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Lance, I hope you are doing well. I thought I would share my results from September with you. I am starting to try and build some statistics around my trading style and edge to discover finer edges for improvement. Any thoughts are welcome. Cheers Michael (BlueRoo)


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  #360 (permalink)
west palm beach florida usa
 
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BlueRoo View Post
Lance, I hope you are doing well. I thought I would share my results from September with you. I am starting to try and build some statistics around my trading style and edge to discover finer edges for improvement. Any thoughts are welcome. Cheers Michael (BlueRoo)


Hi there. These appear to be very impressive results. Your win ratio is extremely good. Perhaps you could share some of your method and rules..if you are comfortable with that .

But yes, it looks like you are doing great. Thanks for showing this.

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  #361 (permalink)
west palm beach florida usa
 
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BlueRoo View Post
Lance, I hope you are doing well. I thought I would share my results from September with you. I am starting to try and build some statistics around my trading style and edge to discover finer edges for improvement. Any thoughts are welcome. Cheers Michael (BlueRoo)


By the way, what is the average contract size being used for these trades?

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lancelottrader View Post
Perhaps you could share some of your method and rules..if you are comfortable with that .

But yes, it looks like you are doing great. Thanks for showing this.

Lance, Yes the win rate is good. I put that down to being patient. My R:R could improve and some of my entry and exit errors as well as psychology. Working to improve. Here is a graphic of the main setup. Simple price crossover...with second average confirmation. "If price crosses the vein in favour of the spine enter at the value of the vein or on the confirmation bar."

2 or 3 lots for CL.


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  #363 (permalink)
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BlueRoo View Post
Lance, Yes the win rate is good. I put that down to being patient. My R:R could improve and some of my entry and exit errors as well as psychology. Working to improve. Here is a graphic of the main setup. Simple price crossover...with second average confirmation. "If price crosses the vein in favour of the spine enter at the value of the vein or on the confirmation bar."

2 or 3 lots for CL.

May I ask what the moving average parameters are?

Is the chart for 5 minute?

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wshi88 View Post
May I ask what the moving average parameters are?

Is the chart for 5 minute?

The parameters that you choose to use do not make it perform better.

You have to start with your trigger chart and that depends upon what you are comfortable watching...

For me it is a 1500 Vol Chart with 21/55 or 21/75.

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  #365 (permalink)
west palm beach florida usa
 
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BlueRoo View Post
Lance, Yes the win rate is good. I put that down to being patient. My R:R could improve and some of my entry and exit errors as well as psychology. Working to improve. Here is a graphic of the main setup. Simple price crossover...with second average confirmation. "If price crosses the vein in favour of the spine enter at the value of the vein or on the confirmation bar."

2 or 3 lots for CL.


Thank you for that. I sort of get the idea of what you are doing.

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  #366 (permalink)
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A little update. I have continued to hit my weekly goal the last several weeks. As far as trading TF with Oil, I have not transitioned to live trading 100% on TF. I have taken some live trades with it. There are days where it does get into the type of conditions I can recognize and do well with.

However, I realize my expertise is with Cl. I understand how it moves and I know what my charts look like when it is the ideal time to trade it. The reason of course is that I have traded it, almost exclusively for the last three or four years. I am still going to keep watching TF as well for a few more weeks. There are volatile days with great moves..and I want to try to see if I can take advantage of those days. But for me, even on a lousy Cl day, I can usually find a move or two and make at least 20 ticks or so.

The one area that I have made great improvements in, is in controlling impulses and following rules. I also feel like I have gotten very good at reading real time market conditions. I absolutely will not put my money at risk in what I consider adverse conditions. At the same time, I will not hesitate to take a trade if everything lines up such as...momentum, lack of obstacles in the way of target, great price action setup...great hotzone time of day and overwhelming order flow imbalance.

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Lance,

Do you feel that you're now at ease with your new contract size? How long did it take you after increasing to really feel comfortable like you used to before you increased? Just curious as I'm contemplating an increase in contract size. I would also be interested in how your fills changed if any. I know CL is fairly liquid but nothing like ES. Thanks!

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  #368 (permalink)
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TheShrike View Post
Lance,

Do you feel that you're now at ease with your new contract size? How long did it take you after increasing to really feel comfortable like you used to before you increased? Just curious as I'm contemplating an increase in contract size. I would also be interested in how your fills changed if any. I know CL is fairly liquid but nothing like ES. Thanks!

The answer is no...I'm not at ease yet. I still get a bit of adrenaline after entering a trade, but much better than a few weeks back.

On a positive note, I am much more likely to wait for the absolute best setup and conditions now..since there is more at stake. The fills have been fine so far. I don't know how many contracts one can trade with Cl before there are problems. I traded 10 a few years back and they filled fine. Maybe 20 and up is an issue? I don't know. Maybe if I get up to that eventually, I'll just press 10 twice. lol.

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  #369 (permalink)
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lancelottrader View Post
A little update. I have continued to hit my weekly goal the last several weeks. As far as trading TF with Oil, I have not transitioned to live trading 100% on TF. I have taken some live trades with it. There are days where it does get into the type of conditions I can recognize and do well with.

However, I realize my expertise is with Cl. I understand how it moves and I know what my charts look like when it is the ideal time to trade it. The reason of course is that I have traded it, almost exclusively for the last three or four years. I am still going to keep watching TF as well for a few more weeks. There are volatile days with great moves..and I want to try to see if I can take advantage of those days. But for me, even on a lousy Cl day, I can usually find a move or two and make at least 20 ticks or so.

The one area that I have made great improvements in, is in controlling impulses and following rules. I also feel like I have gotten very good at reading real time market conditions. I absolutely will not put my money at risk in what I consider adverse conditions. At the same time, I will not hesitate to take a trade if everything lines up such as...momentum, lack of obstacles in the way of target, great price action setup...great hotzone time of day and overwhelming order flow imbalance.

Lance,
How do you recognize order flow imbalance ? Thanks ,
Amin

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  #370 (permalink)
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Hiya, I just spent over 2 hours reading through your CL trading thread. Very entertaining read.

I have a very stupid question but cannot shake off why this wouldn't work. Using the rampage scalper indicator, why can't you just reverse your position every time you see an arrow / the color changes? Yes you would rack up the commissions during choppy times, and break even a lot. But you wouldn't miss any big rides?

Please let me know why this clearly wouldn't work

Thanks again for posting it has been a great read!

-amob

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  #371 (permalink)
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avall38486 View Post
Lance,
How do you recognize order flow imbalance ? Thanks ,
Amin

Hi. Probably the best indicator for me that shows order flow imbalance is something I've used for a few years called Tick Strike. It is an audible and visual indicator . When there is extreme selling or buying volume, it is has a meter that lights up..red for selling and green for buying. It's shown in several of my videos. It also has a ticking sound and the cadence and intensity increases as the order flow increases. So, after years of using it, it gives me a very reliable confirmation that a move is underway.
Also I have volume charts set up on a 10 second timeframe as well as a 1 minute. When I see large orders coming across a 10 second timeframe..like 500 to 1000 contracts or more..that tells me something is going on.

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no I totally get it. Especially smart to have many indicators to help you trade.

As a thought experiment, I am just saying, why not be in the market 100% of the time (with stop losses to prevent HUGE moves against you in milliseconds); and just constantly reverse when rampage has that arrow/change of color? Wouldn't that work?

edit: oh I realize you weren't replying to me. Sorry.

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  #373 (permalink)
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amob View Post
Hiya, I just spent over 2 hours reading through your CL trading thread. Very entertaining read.

I have a very stupid question but cannot shake off why this wouldn't work. Using the rampage scalper indicator, why can't you just reverse your position every time you see an arrow / the color changes? Yes you would rack up the commissions during choppy times, and break even a lot. But you wouldn't miss any big rides?

Please let me know why this clearly wouldn't work

Thanks again for posting it has been a great read!

-amob

Hi. Thanks for your comment. Glad you are entertained. Better than boring, right? lol

To be honest, you may be correct. (I do not have the Rampage "Scalper Indicator" installed, just the original Rampage. I may give it a try though and install it.) If one were to take every signal and endure the choppy days etc, but were to ride out some big winners..it is possible you would end up ahead of the game. I think the original Rampage would be better for the big rides...especially set on a 1or 2 minute time frame. Often I will see, on a 2 minute setting..200 tick moves or more.
I do use Rampage mainly for trend confirmation..but I do think it can be very useful for staying in a trending move longer..at least from a psychological standpoint.

I am, however, a big believer in reading market conditions..and I doubt I could ever trust an indicator enough to take every signal. I really don't enjoy taking multiple losses in a row in hopes of nailing a big move.

If the volume is there and I see Cl really starting to move, I could see me going for a 100 tick move and using rampage to keep me in the trade. In other words, it hits my target or I get out with a signal change. I'd probably use a 2 minute chart with the original Rampage on it. My testing shows me the two minute would be best for that. A 5 minute chart can make you give back way too many ticks..sometimes over 60 or more before a signal change.

Staying in for longer moves on trending days is definitely something I need to work on more.

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  #374 (permalink)
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amob View Post
no I totally get it. Especially smart to have many indicators to help you trade.

As a thought experiment, I am just saying, why not be in the market 100% of the time (with stop losses to prevent HUGE moves against you in milliseconds); and just constantly reverse when rampage has that arrow/change of color? Wouldn't that work?

edit: oh I realize you weren't replying to me. Sorry.

I don't think it's a good idea to be in the market 100% of the time..especially in Crude Oil.. There are days where you can lose virtually every trade that way. I prefer to wait until the conditions and setups appear that I feel are extremely high probability..and only trade those.

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I mean 100% of the time when you are actively trading. I was watching your videos and if you just set a stop loss and reverse every time you see the ramage arrow; it seems like it would breakeven/small loss when choppy and yet capture every big win? The only thought I could imagine it wouldn't work is getting eaten away by commissions and the constant very small losses (2 ticks, kind of like slippage). Again I have no idea, it was just a thought experiment.

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  #376 (permalink)
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and thank you for doing this; I have already learned a lot on your interesting style of trading.

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End of a pretty good week.


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lancelottrader View Post
Hi. Probably the best indicator for me that shows order flow imbalance is something I've used for a few years called Tick Strike. It is an audible and visual indicator . When there is extreme selling or buying volume, it is has a meter that lights up..red for selling and green for buying. It's shown in several of my videos. It also has a ticking sound and the cadence and intensity increases as the order flow increases. So, after years of using it, it gives me a very reliable confirmation that a move is underway.
Also I have volume charts set up on a 10 second timeframe as well as a 1 minute. When I see large orders coming across a 10 second timeframe..like 500 to 1000 contracts or more..that tells me something is going on.

I did go back and watched a video. Great Stuff.

How do you enter a trade ? market or limit or stop order ?

Thank you

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  #379 (permalink)
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Lance,
I was checking the broker Optimus futures.. Probably you are using ninja trader for charting and other platform for execution ? Does this delay your reaction time if you want to get in or out of a trade ? I think I may be overwhelmed with 2 different platforms? How do you handle both platforms ?
Thanks
Amin

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  #380 (permalink)
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lancelottrader View Post
End of a pretty good week.


i can not open this video
it says it is private
anybody else can open it ?

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  #381 (permalink)
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rleplae View Post
i can not open this video
it says it is private
anybody else can open it ?

No.

I get "Please sign in to view this video"

Bob.

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Gits (Hooglede) Belgium
 
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bobwest View Post
No.

I get "Please sign in to view this video"

Bob.

I think the settings are wrong
i am signed in, and then it says this video is private

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rleplae View Post
I think the settings are wrong
i am signed in, and then it says this video is private

Lol. I wouldn't know how to sign in anyway.

If that's a YouTube login, I either don't have one, or don't know it. I don't think I ever used one for YouTube....

But I can't see it either.

Bob.

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  #384 (permalink)
west palm beach florida usa
 
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avall38486 View Post
Lance,
I was checking the broker Optimus futures.. Probably you are using ninja trader for charting and other platform for execution ? Does this delay your reaction time if you want to get in or out of a trade ? I think I may be overwhelmed with 2 different platforms? How do you handle both platforms ?
Thanks
Amin

I chart and execute from Ninja..although that option may not be available to new customers. You might have to ask Matt about it.

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rleplae View Post
I think the settings are wrong
i am signed in, and then it says this video is private

That's strange..I just checked my settings and the video said Public...so I'm not sure why it isn't working.

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  #386 (permalink)
west palm beach florida usa
 
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I switched it to unlisted..so maybe try again?


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lancelottrader View Post
I switched it to unlisted..so maybe try again?


yes !
works now, thanks
interesting

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Hi Lancelottrader,

last week i became aware about this excellent Thread. Just wanted to thank you and let you know this thread has slightly changed my perspective on trading systems.

When i started short term trading forex i began with a similar system consisting basically of some moving averages and a supertrend. However i was not successful with that system so i did basically skip it.

Looking at this thread (and i read it from the beginning) i was quite curious to see how you handle such a system and whether you gonna succeed. And you did

I appreciate sharing all ups and downs in this thread and showing how you are getting a grip on it.

I like how you emphasize whether good market conditions are in place which are needed to make this trading approach successful. Well, some might say: This clear and simple, and i did know that but now i feel i do understand now

Thanks for that
Michael

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  #389 (permalink)
west palm beach florida usa
 
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The last week or so, along with my live CL trading...I have been conducting a SIM experiment on Cl as well.
After back testing almost a year of charts..plus many days of Replay trades...I have seen so many days of much larger trending moves of 100-200 ticks or more. Plus I watched my recorded sessions enough to know what the conditions often look like when these moves take place. So, I have been going for much bigger targets in my SIM experiment and taking some Rampage (indicator) signals on a 1 minute chart and riding out trades for very large moves. So far, I am liking the results. I am having several days already of making over 100 ticks. Yes, it's only SIM..however I am letting the signals get me out or my target is hit. So, it's nothing I wouldn't be able to replicate live.

I think I may be taking targets often that are way too small. I often allow countertrend noise to shake me out of trades that have huge potential. Now, it may be too soon to tell...but if in a month I keep getting good results..I may start going for bigger targets in my live trades as well.. If not, I can still get good results from what I am doing now.

I don't like to change things if I am seeing some consistency,,,however I do have days where I hit my max drawdown and it can become very challenging to hit my weekly goal. At this point, it is just an experiment..but I am already seeing some benefit from managing larger target trades. Also, I am still keeping my entries low risk. The main difference is my minimum target is 50 ticks. I either get 50 or the signal change(or EMA breach) takes me out. Some I am letting go 100 ticks or a signal change. It's very interesting because some trades seem to stall at 20 ticks. They will just sit there for a long time and do nothing...and then suddenly take off and go 100 ticks. I just stay in until the software gets me out. My stops are generally never more than 15 ticks..so the risk/reward on some of these trades is excellent. But I figure if I can nail several 50 tick winners along with a few 100 tick moves (some signals have given 300 tick moves!) I could be looking at some weeks making close to 200 ticks. This would really take me to another level.
I will report the results of the SIM trades in about a month. I will, of course continue live trading using my same method.

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lancelottrader View Post
The last week or so, along with my live CL trading...I have been conducting a SIM experiment on Cl as well.
After back testing almost a year of charts..plus many days of Replay trades...I have seen so many days of much larger trending moves of 100-200 ticks or more. Plus I watched my recorded sessions enough to know what the conditions often look like when these moves take place. So, I have been going for much bigger targets in my SIM experiment and taking some Rampage (indicator) signals on a 1 minute chart and riding out trades for very large moves. So far, I am liking the results. I am having several days already of making over 100 ticks. Yes, it's only SIM..however I am letting the signals get me out or my target is hit. So, it's nothing I wouldn't be able to replicate live.

I think I may be taking targets often that are way too small. I often allow countertrend noise to shake me out of trades that have huge potential. Now, it may be too soon to tell...but if in a month I keep getting good results..I may start going for bigger targets in my live trades as well.. If not, I can still get good results from what I am doing now.

I don't like to change things if I am seeing some consistency,,,however I do have days where I hit my max drawdown and it can become very challenging to hit my weekly goal. At this point, it is just an experiment..but I am already seeing some benefit from managing larger target trades. Also, I am still keeping my entries low risk. The main difference is my minimum target is 50 ticks. I either get 50 or the signal change(or EMA breach) takes me out. Some I am letting go 100 ticks or a signal change. It's very interesting because some trades seem to stall at 20 ticks. They will just sit there for a long time and do nothing...and then suddenly take off and go 100 ticks. I just stay in until the software gets me out. My stops are generally never more than 15 ticks..so the risk/reward on some of these trades is excellent. But I figure if I can nail several 50 tick winners along with a few 100 tick moves (some signals have given 300 tick moves!) I could be looking at some weeks making close to 200 ticks. This would really take me to another level.
I will report the results of the SIM trades in about a month. I will, of course continue live trading using my same method.

If you're trading multiple lots already, just convert one or two of them into runners....take one off at +50 and let the other go until it either hits 100+ or an opposite signal....You should like the results.....not as good as being all in all out at +100 but still, if you grab one of those a week along with 2-3 50 tick trades, along with the profit from the first scale out, you should be doing good!!!

Congrats on making it....it was a long haul but you made it....

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  #391 (permalink)
west palm beach florida usa
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
If you're trading multiple lots already, just convert one or two of them into runners....take one off at +50 and let the other go until it either hits 100+ or an opposite signal....You should like the results.....not as good as being all in all out at +100 but still, if you grab one of those a week along with 2-3 50 tick trades, along with the profit from the first scale out, you should be doing good!!!

Congrats on making it....it was a long haul but you made it....

Thanks for the suggestion...I've always been an all in/all out guy...but I will probably give your suggestion a try. I don't feel like I've made it yet...but I am way ahead of where I was. I am definitely showing decent periods of time where I am consistent.
Thanks again for your nice comments. Your journals were always very helpful to me and I really miss them. I hope you are doing well.

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OPEC Is About to Crush the U.S. Oil Boom - Bloomberg Business

Crude going lower? Or is this article and the OPEC meeting today to bait the bears? My sentiment is short at the moment but with all else ignored it's bleeding for a up day IMO

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lancelottrader View Post
Thanks for the suggestion...I've always been an all in/all out guy...but I will probably give your suggestion a try. I don't feel like I've made it yet...but I am way ahead of where I was. I am definitely showing decent periods of time where I am consistent.
Thanks again for your nice comments. Your journals were always very helpful to me and I really miss them. I hope you are doing well.

If your losing trades are small even with multiple lots and you really do let the runner go without killing it early, it can be a very powerful way of capturing those runners.

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Showing this because I lost a few trades in a row..but ended up doing pretty well.


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  #395 (permalink)
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Lancelottrader,

This is a nice video. I was chopped into pieces at the 45.37 level.

Question: what type of orders you use on such a small time frame of 2 range ? Do you ever use market orders to enter, specifically on the power moves you referred to in the video ?

Thanks

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  #396 (permalink)
west palm beach florida usa
 
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avall38486 View Post
Lancelottrader,

This is a nice video. I was chopped into pieces at the 45.37 level.

Question: what type of orders you use on such a small time frame of 2 range ? Do you ever use market orders to enter, specifically on the power moves you referred to in the video ?

Thanks

Yes..when price is moving fast..I sometimes use market orders..I don't seem to get much slippage. Usually though I use limit orders.

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  #397 (permalink)
west palm beach florida usa
 
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This recap video shows the trades from my recorded session and you can really see what order flow is doing.


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  #398 (permalink)
west palm beach florida usa
 
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I was fortunate to have several days last week on CL where price was moving with some direction and momentum. Those days I find work very well with my style of trading. My last video is a good example of the type of days I really like. However, last Monday was a day where I actually hit my max daily drawdown. I failed to properly read the prevailing bad market conditions until it was too late.

Like many Mondays that had no news planned on the economic news schedule, it was choppy and lacked a lot of directional moves. After my first two losses, I should have changed course. It was the type of day where my price action setups are doomed to fail on virtually every trade. The best way to play that type of day...after incurring a few losses, is to no longer take trades until an important price level is reached .

In other words, lets say I am looking for a trade and I see a target at a serious point of resistance which is maybe 50 ticks away. I am now seeing that we are in a choppy mode...so I will no longer take any trades at my current price level..short or long. I will now wait until price somehow chops it's way to an area of strong support or resistance..and then see if I have some sort of reversal or breakout type trade. But I will ignore any moves or trades until they reach that destination. So basically on chop, you have to stay out and not get lured in by sudden hints of volatility..because price will often look like it's shooting up and then will suddenly fizzle and reverse sharply on you. Now some people might look at it a different way. They will say chop is only there because you are looking at too small a timeframe...and if you are patient and employ a huge stoploss, then maybe you will be ok. Again, for my system..I don't really like that idea. It seems way too speculative..and if you are wrong about the direction, you could end up taking a big loss. I prefer small losses and trades that are very high probability.

This also could be a day where it makes sense to watch another instrument (for me TF is a great candidate) that might be moving well.
The bottom line is one must have a strategy to deal with those choppy, lousy days before they incur a string of losses. This is one of the reasons trading can seem so difficult. When we have a series of days where the conditions are good, it's easy to believe we have this thing figured out. But then several days in a row can arise that are choppy and suddenly discouragement and failure set in.
Reading market conditions before it is too late is a very important skill and one that I still find very challenging.

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west palm beach florida usa
 
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I had a friend over today who used to be a pretty big trader on Wall Street. I ended up showing him my last video I posted on here.

He asked"Why the hell are you giving out all this info? What are you getting out of that? I don't think it's a very good idea and if you have something that works..keep it to yourself!"

Hmmmm

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lancelottrader View Post
I had a friend over today who used to be a pretty big trader on Wall Street. I ended up showing him my last video I posted on here.

He asked"Why the hell are you giving out all this info? What are you getting out of that? I don't think it's a very good idea and if you have something that works..keep it to yourself!"

Hmmmm

I think that is ridiculous. It implies the methodology is what is important, when in truth the importance is the context and execution, neither of which can be "given" to someone else.

Mike

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