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The Crude Dude Oil Trading System


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The Crude Dude Oil Trading System

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  #201 (permalink)
 lancelottrader 
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TurismoTek View Post

EDIT: Be cool if you could post a YT video of these 10 tick scalps, as I think I could learn a lot from them. Cheers bro.

Here is a video from my Real time recording this morning of my Live trade and several 10 tick scalp trades.


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  #202 (permalink)
TurismoTek
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lancelottrader View Post
Here is a video from my Real time recording this morning of my Live trade and several 10 tick scalp trades.


Awesome scalping, loved it. CL just moves so fast with that momentum, $0 to $100 in seconds, my kind of futures!

Had me giggling at the Clint Eastwood impersonation.

Definitely agree that's not noise, that's opportunity!

TickStrike looks interesting also, is it audible or just visual?

Keep it up,
Cheers for the video mate,
Turismo

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  #203 (permalink)
 lancelottrader 
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TurismoTek View Post
Awesome scalping, loved it. CL just moves so fast with that momentum, $0 to $100 in seconds, my kind of futures!

Had me giggling at the Clint Eastwood impersonation.

Definitely agree that's not noise, that's opportunity!

TickStrike looks interesting also, is it audible or just visual?

Keep it up,
Cheers for the video mate,
Turismo

Glad you liked it. Yes, tick Strike makes a lot of noise.. The cadence can build from these little ticks to something that sounds like a machine gun when order flow becomes extreme. When I do the video of my playback, I don't have the sound up high because then I would be talking over my running commentary I do while I'm trading.

For example..I am constantly vocalizing various what-if scenarios during the session. Like.."if price fails here and enters my black spine, do I want this trade? Or..if momentum suddenly shows up and this small price range is broken, do I want to enter?"
This way..no matter what happens, I won't get caught off guard. If I don't do that "ADHD boy" takes over..and next thing you know I'm checking e-mails and reading Facebook..and then end up missing a good move. So the constant commentary keeps me focused as well.
Also, the benefit of the commentary is that I can watch back my session and hear the reason I took the trade. If I just keep the reasons in my head..instead of verbalizing..then I don't have as much info when I watch back my recording.

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  #204 (permalink)
 trvlntrdr 
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Great Video Lancelot!
It really looks like you have your system down pretty well.
I also have done a lot of work on the short time frame charts ---that is one reason why i have been following your thread.
Scalping crude oils sounds like small change but it literally makes these moves all day long. I think it makes sense to focus on the short term if you can reasonably tell what is happening next. i think that predicting the next hours move is move is more difficult than the next 2 minutes. And like any thing in futures if you are consistently profitable you can make real money.
So thanks for the great teaching again.

T.

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  #205 (permalink)
 lancelottrader 
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Here's a recap of trades taken today. Much more ticks than I usually make in one day! 95 ticks. Just realized the video pauses for about 5 seconds at the 8:00 mark. That's not the end.


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lancelottrader View Post
Here's a recap of trades taken today. Much more ticks than I usually make in one day! 95 ticks. Just realized the video pauses for about 5 seconds at the 8:00 mark. That's not the end.


Lancelottrader,

i have watched a few of your video's and in addition to posting a thanks this time around wanted to say these are appreciated. BlueRoo...

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 lancelottrader 
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BlueRoo View Post
Lancelottrader,

i have watched a few of your video's and in addition to posting a thanks this time around wanted to say these are appreciated. BlueRoo...

Thank you. I hope they have been helpful..in some way.

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 lancelottrader 
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Here's a recap video showing the trades of today plus some tips on trading the Oil report. Also a good day on SIM NQ scalps.


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  #209 (permalink)
 lancelottrader 
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I see Matt Z giving thanks on several of my posts and I think that is really cool. I know if it weren't for him, I would have quit trading altogether a few years ago. After switching over from Forex to futures a few years ago, I ended up using Optimus (Matt's firm) as my broker. I had a particularly disastrous day where I just started revenge trading and losing all impulse control. i think I lost over $7000. Of course this was no where near as bad as some Forex losses I had taken in the past.
Anyhow, I just decided that I couldn't do it anymore..and I called Matt and told him I was done. He didn't try to persuade me..or talk me out of it. He asked if I wanted my money wired back or a check. Then he listened as I told him how I traded that day..and how I had done the same things in the past. He spent an hour on the phone with me talking about daily loss limits, psychology and so many things that were invaluable. After digesting his priceless information..I decided to go back to SIM and try again untill i could follow some strict rules. I won't talk about how good Optimus is..because this isn't the thread for it..but since this has become my trade journal, I did want to acknowledge that Matt helped me that day. I am happy I didn't quit now..because I really am starting to believe that I will succeed at this and finally be able to achieve my goals. I think if I had spoke to a different kind of broker, I would have quit and would probably be still working at some to 9 to 5 grind. THANK YOU, MATT.

Anyhow, made about 40 ticks on Cl today. This is turning out to be one of my best weeks ever.

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  #210 (permalink)
 lancelottrader 
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Here are a few things that have helped me improve:

1. RECORDING MY TRADING SESSIONS: This has been a huge help. I watch replays of my trades and since I verbally announce the setup type, stop placement and target..and I can understand the reasons why I took the trade. Also..I can see exactly what my charts and indicators look like prior to a big momentum move. I can see events occurring on order flow tools, volume counts etc. Then, in the future when extremely similar patterns emerge, I know I have a high probability move. I can also see when I make the same stupid errors repeatedly and finally learn to stop doing it!

2. DOING A QUICK CHECKLIST BEFORE TAKING AN ENTRY: On a fast moving, tricky instrument like CL, it is very easy to get suckered into some bad trades. Often it will look like it's spiking up fast..order flow shows contracts coming in..and your brain says I have to get in now!! Then you jump in...and it suddenly starts going the opposite way fast..so you move your stop out to ride out what you think is a small pullback and before you know it ..you're 20 ticks or more down. I call that "Spikefoolery." It happens a lot. But the point is, I try now to run a quick checklist before entering. Some questions I will ask are: Has price already moved well past it's usual ATR,? Are we in a choppy consolidated period? Has price, so far, been making nice swings of 20 to 30 ticks..or is it just bouncy and choppy? Is this a time of day where price usually moves well? Are there any major or minor support and resistance levels in the way of my target?Is the momentum strong enough to break through these levels or is it weak and will probably bounce? Am I trading objectively or has some recent losses caused me to be overly emotional?Is my stop going to easily be hit or do i need a large one where the risk isn't worth it?
There are other questions..but this is an example of my thoughts before entry.

3. RESISTING TEMPTATION AND SAYING NO TO ALL TRADES THAT DON'T FIT MY PARAMETERS- This has been difficult for me in the past, but I am improving in this area immensely. From watching my replays..I know the types of trades that have the highest chance of working out. Now I try my hardest to wait for only those setups.

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 trvlntrdr 
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lancelottrader View Post
Here are a few things that have helped me improve:

1. RECORDING MY TRADING SESSIONS: This has been a huge help. I watch replays of my trades and since I verbally announce the setup type, stop placement and target..and I can understand the reasons why I took the trade. Also..I can see exactly what my charts and indicators look like prior to a big momentum move. I can see events occurring on order flow tools, volume counts etc. Then, in the future when extremely similar patterns emerge, I know I have a high probability move. I can also see when I make the same stupid errors repeatedly and finally learn to stop doing it!

2. DOING A QUICK CHECKLIST BEFORE TAKING AN ENTRY: On a fast moving, tricky instrument like CL, it is very easy to get suckered into some bad trades. Often it will look like it's spiking up fast..order flow shows contracts coming in..and your brain says I have to get in now!! Then you jump in...and it suddenly starts going the opposite way fast..so you move your stop out to ride out what you think is a small pullback and before you know it ..you're 20 ticks or more down. I call that "Spikefoolery." It happens a lot. But the point is, I try now to run a quick checklist before entering. Some questions I will ask are: Has price already moved well past it's usual ATR,? Are we in a choppy consolidated period? Has price, so far, been making nice swings of 20 to 30 ticks..or is it just bouncy and choppy? Is this a time of day where price usually moves well? Are there any major or minor support and resistance levels in the way of my target?Is the momentum strong enough to break through these levels or is it weak and will probably bounce? Am I trading objectively or has some recent losses caused me to be overly emotional?Is my stop going to easily be hit or do i need a large one where the risk isn't worth it?
There are other questions..but this is an example of my thoughts before entry.

3. RESISTING TEMPTATION AND SAYING NO TO ALL TRADES THAT DON'T FIT MY PARAMETERS- This has been difficult for me in the past, but I am improving in this area immensely. From watching my replays..I know the types of trades that have the highest chance of working out. Now I try my hardest to wait for only those setups.

I am really getting a lot out of this thread as it appears that we have exactly the same issues. Or more exactly i still have the issues you had.
i have been trying to record my trading sessions for exactly the same reasons but the files are really large. i use Camstudio. Do you or anyone recommend something different?
Thanks for your work in this thread, i know you almost gave up on it but it does help some of us!
T.

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  #212 (permalink)
 lancelottrader 
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trvlntrdr View Post
I am really getting a lot out of this thread as it appears that we have exactly the same issues. Or more exactly i still have the issues you had.
i have been trying to record my trading sessions for exactly the same reasons but the files are really large. i use Camstudio. Do you or anyone recommend something different?
Thanks for your work in this thread, i know you almost gave up on it but it does help some of us!
T.

I like a program called Screen Movie Studio. I have had it for a while because it works quite well and is pretty simple to use. I don't care for the built in codecs because they do seem to create big files..so I downloaded a codec called Xvid MPEG-4. It creates smaller files. Also, I save everything to an external drive so as not to use up disc space on my P.C. I've got a nice little 465 Gig Seagate expansion drive for about $50 . A 3 hour video takes up about 700 MB..so the drive can hold many, many videos.

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  #213 (permalink)
 trvlntrdr 
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lancelottrader View Post
I like a program called Screen Movie Studio. I have had it for a while because it works quite well and is pretty simple to use. I don't care for the built in codecs because they do seem to create big files..so I downloaded a codec called Xvid MPEG-4. It creates smaller files. Also, I save everything to an external drive so as not to use up disc space on my P.C. I've got a nice little 465 Gig Seagate expansion drive for about $50 . A 3 hour video takes up about 700 MB..so the drive can hold many, many videos.

Im glad i asked, i get a 1 gb file for less than 1 minute video. i have some room in my external hard drive but not enough to get 1 days worth of video. i will see about shrinking the files. thanks for the info

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 lancelottrader 
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The last couple of weeks, I have had good results from trading a few other instruments..rather than exclusively Cl. It took me a while to arrange my chart setups on my monitors..so that I could view things properly.

The instruments I am now watching simultaneously are Cl, NQ and GC. NQ and GC are being traded on SIM for now.

The advantages for me are that I can now wait for the absolute best setups in terms of volatility and price action. Some days..Oil is the "Star" of the day and I focus on that mainly. Other days it is NQ. Today Gold made some amazing moves.. which I caught several of. Somedays, there are great opportunities on all three.

The key for me is to have audible alerts at key price levels. This way if my attention is on one instrument I can hear an alert at a price level on another instrument. Then,I can quickly scan that instrument. Also, my order flow tool, Tick Strike often gives some indications something strong is happening..and I can again check out the setup on the instrument that is causing the ticking.

There is an unmistakeable look to my charts when a strong move is underway..and now I have more opportunities to catch one of those moves.

So I basically am looking for either a strong momentum move..or a great reversal at a key price level. On one screen, I have my 2 range "Timing" chart on all three instruments. This chart is great for showing when momentum picks up. It is kind of an early warning chart. On my other screen, I have the larger timeframes setup. So basically, if I see things setting up on something, I look at the higher timeframe for added confirmation...Then I run through my quick checklist..and if all systems are go..I take the trade.

I found out, by only watching Oil, I was often lured into less than optimal setups. However, now with three instruments being traded, I am more likely to wait and cherry pick the absolute best setup.

So far it is working well.

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  #215 (permalink)
xylem
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Are you selling these indicators anytime soon?
Also I trade NQ and CL but not GC.
Is GC commission similar to CL?

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  #216 (permalink)
 lancelottrader 
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xylem View Post
Are you selling these indicators anytime soon?
Also I trade NQ and CL but not GC.
Is GC commission similar to CL?

No, I am not going to be selling any indicators. I think the commission on GC is pretty much the same as with Cl at my Broker. I don't know if it's the same with other brokers.

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xylem
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Glad to hear your not selling

I may look into GC as im currentyl deciding which markets to trade and Im so far settled on CL NQ YM. FGBL (time permitting) and GC would serve when CL is quiet.
BTW Lance I noticed there has been a MASSIVE CL buyer at 77.50 and below and he keeps getting crushed.

Any thoughts on this action at CL alltime lows?

Could be putin

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  #218 (permalink)
 bobc635 
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Since Oil is a commodity, it could be an actual buyer looking to take deliveries.... Refineries and the like, need to take delivery to maintain their business and maybe they have decided that price is adequate to catch some inventory. Also, it could be large traders taking profits on their shorts from above.

B


xylem View Post
Glad to hear your not selling

I may look into GC as im currentyl deciding which markets to trade and Im so far settled on CL NQ YM. FGBL (time permitting) and GC would serve when CL is quiet.
BTW Lance I noticed there has been a MASSIVE CL buyer at 77.50 and below and he keeps getting crushed.

Any thoughts on this action at CL alltime lows?

Could be putin


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Amitagg
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lancelottrader View Post
I think one main reason this thread deoesn't seem to get much response is that it doesn't have the typical themes you see on most trading forums. I think people are more drawn to threads about struggling SIM traders trying to test and experiment with various strategies and systems. These threads have, I suppose a more dramatic element to them. You know, 'The Endless Quest for the Holy grail" thing. Apparently people, as a whole don't care to view videos of actual live trades being taken in real time and having setups explained in that moment.

Also, my system is fairly simplistic and that doesn't apparently resonate well with people. There isn't talk of VWAPs and balance..or the latest indicator. People want to be able to have a system that says..when my indicators does this or this line crosses that..enter a trade. Unfortunately, there is no such system. You have to understand the context in which those systems work and learn to recognize when those conditions occur.

Now, to those individuals that do view this thread consistently, I only do this for you. Since there is little discussion from others or participation..the only thing I can get out of posting here is that I write possibly one thing..that helps someone improve. If I have helped anyone..even in a small way..I am happy. I, unfortunately..like so many others went through years of failure and lost a lot of money. I am not saying I am wildly successful now. Far from it..but damn..There is definitely a light at the end of the Tunnel.

I stopped losing money, consistently a while back..which was great!! Now I am consistently profitable..not in a big way..but enough to convince me that I will eventually be able to make a living from this. My Dream was always to be able to, regardless what happens in the world..that with my little computers..I can not only survive..but thrive. I think this will soon be a reality.

Another guy on here that I think has what it takes to make a good living from this..is Brian (AKA Panda Warrior). I can tell by his motivation and thought processes..trading style.. that he is on the right track. I wish you all the best, Brian. I am sure you have struggled like I have with this crazy endeavor,..but you never gave up. Good for you.

Hello
I am from India and search for crude oil forums and TA led me to this.
Seems a similar experience as yours with losing money ( in other asset classes) to finding crude and being consistently profitable to be about to make a living trading only this commodity.
Would study your thread in greater detail.
Regards

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 lancelottrader 
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xylem View Post
Glad to hear your not selling

I may look into GC as im currentyl deciding which markets to trade and Im so far settled on CL NQ YM. FGBL (time permitting) and GC would serve when CL is quiet.
BTW Lance I noticed there has been a MASSIVE CL buyer at 77.50 and below and he keeps getting crushed.

Any thoughts on this action at CL alltime lows?

Could be putin

I really didn't notice that...as far as buying from one individual.That's interesting though.

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 lancelottrader 
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Amitagg View Post
Hello
I am from India and search for crude oil forums and TA led me to this.
Seems a similar experience as yours with losing money ( in other asset classes) to finding crude and being consistently profitable to be about to make a living trading only this commodity.
Would study your thread in greater detail.
Regards

Glad you are on here. Feel free to ask anything or..share any info that you think might be helpful.

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 lancelottrader 
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Recap video showing some CL setups from today.



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 lancelottrader 
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End to a good week, Finished up on CL about 130 ticks. Made another 90 ticks on SIM.. on GC and NQ. So..combined almost 220 ticks. One thing that has really helped is double checking on the higher timeframes before taking an entry. Cl can make so many false reversals..and I'm no longer getting suckered into them like I always did.
Here are a couple of CL trades from today.

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 lancelottrader 
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One thing I did more of this week that I think helped a lot was basically not interfering much on my trades. I would basically take a setup, have my target and stop in place..and then basically let it do its thing. In the past, I have exited a lot of trades or prematurely broke even because 'I didn't like" the way it was moving...or after enduring 10 ticks or so of heat..getting out when I was back to even.

The bottom line is price can do a lot of crazy things on it's way to a target. In fact, a couple of trades this week came within 2 ticks of hitting my stop, but I let them go and didn't touch them. They ended up being 30 to 40 tick winners. So, the bottom line is, it is very hard to predict some of the "noise" on the way to the target. Some trades hit my 30 tick target in 5 to 10 minutes. Others might take an hour to make 30 or so.

I came to this conclusion after scrolling through months of charts and looking at setups and then how price acted on it's way to it's target. The twist and turns on some moves would have psyched me out and made me want to get out of the trades. And of course, real money is even more nerve wracking than Sim trades. But after looking at all these charts, I came to the conclusion that just holding the trade and not interfering yielded the best results.

Since I have implemented this non-interference principle, I have had better results. A while back, I wrote on this thread that I was trying to make 60 ticks a week consistently on CL and I showed the math of what that would yield on 2 contracts..then 5..and up to 10 contracts etc. A very good living could be had from those results. Now, I have been achieving weeks of 90 to 120 ticks ...just on CL. Much of his is from not messing with my trades. However, there are some things to keep in mind.

First of all, the majority of my targets are 20 to 30 ticks. I also pick areas that are easy to hit. In other words, I target areas where there is some form of support and resistance. As I have repeatedly shown in my videos, these areas can result in a substantial bounce..sometimes 20 to 40 ticks in a countertrend movement. Some people get very frustrated who are going for 50 to 100 tick moves to see a winning trade now taking 20 ticks of heat. I believe in setting up the game in a way that makes it easier to win. Why make things harder? This game is hard enough as it is. In other words, pick targets that are easier to be hit and not one's where you have to rely on price bouncing around while it's trying to breakthrough an area.

Now once it finally gets through an area, there is often more 20 to 30 tick opportunities..or you can get back in on a pullback. Then your next target is another small area of resistance or support. Again, much easier than holding a Cl trade for 100 ticks or so. We have all seen Cl move up 100 ticks, then suddenly turn around and go 150 in the opposite direction. Hard to predict that and just sit there waiting for 50 to 75 ticks in one direction on moves like that. It can be done, but you need an enormous stop loss.

Anyhow, looking forward to next week .

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 PandaWarrior 
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lancelottrader View Post
One thing I did more of this week that I think helped a lot was basically not interfering much on my trades. I would basically take a setup, have my target and stop in place..and then basically let it do its thing. In the past, I have exited a lot of trades or prematurely broke even because 'I didn't like" the way it was moving...or after enduring 10 ticks or so of heat..getting out when I was back to even.

The bottom line is price can do a lot of crazy things on it's way to a target. In fact, a couple of trades this week came within 2 ticks of hitting my stop, but I let them go and didn't touch them. They ended up being 30 to 40 tick winners. So, the bottom line is, it is very hard to predict some of the "noise" on the way to the target. Some trades hit my 30 tick target in 5 to 10 minutes. Others might take an hour to make 30 or so.

I came to this conclusion after scrolling through months of charts and looking at setups and then how price acted on it's way to it's target. The twist and turns on some moves would have psyched me out and made me want to get out of the trades. And of course, real money is even more nerve wracking than Sim trades. But after looking at all these charts, I came to the conclusion that just holding the trade and not interfering yielded the best results.

Since I have implemented this non-interference principle, I have had better results. A while back, I wrote on this thread that I was trying to make 60 ticks a week consistently on CL and I showed the math of what that would yield on 2 contracts..then 5..and up to 10 contracts etc. A very good living could be had from those results. Now, I have been achieving weeks of 90 to 120 ticks ...just on CL. Much of his is from not messing with my trades. However, there are some things to keep in mind.

First of all, the majority of my targets are 20 to 30 ticks. I also pick areas that are easy to hit. In other words, I target areas where there is some form of support and resistance. As I have repeatedly shown in my videos, these areas can result in a substantial bounce..sometimes 20 to 40 ticks in a countertrend movement. Some people get very frustrated who are going for 50 to 100 tick moves to see a winning trade now taking 20 ticks of heat. I believe in setting up the game in a way that makes it easier to win. Why make things harder? This game is hard enough as it is. In other words, pick targets that are easier to be hit and not one's where you have to rely on price bouncing around while it's trying to breakthrough an area.

Now once it finally gets through an area, there is often more 20 to 30 tick opportunities..or you can get back in on a pullback. Then your next target is another small area of resistance or support. Again, much easier than holding a Cl trade for 100 ticks or so. We have all seen Cl move up 100 ticks, then suddenly turn around and go 150 in the opposite direction. Hard to predict that and just sit there waiting for 50 to 75 ticks in one direction on moves like that. It can be done, but you need an enormous stop loss.

Anyhow, looking forward to next week .

Well put.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #226 (permalink)
 ekim 
Providence, Rhode Island
 
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Hey Lancelot, thanks for your journal, I read through the whole thing(!) this weekend, very helpful.

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 lancelottrader 
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ekim View Post
Hey Lancelot, thanks for your journal, I read through the whole thing(!) this weekend, very helpful.

Wow. That's a lot of reading ! I'm glad it was useful to you. Thanks for your nice comment.

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 lancelottrader 
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Good recap video of my post oil report setups showing the actual recorded trades with commentary.



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 lancelottrader 
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It figures... I decide to sleep in today, since it's Thanksgiving, and not trade. Just looked at a chart and Crude made a 400 tick drop this morning! I wondering if the exchanges were open to trade or not?

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 lancelottrader 
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Here's a quick Recap video of today's Cl trades.


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 SMCJB 
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lancelottrader View Post
It figures... I decide to sleep in today, since it's Thanksgiving, and not trade. Just looked at a chart and Crude made a 400 tick drop this morning! I wondering if the exchanges were open to trade or not?

Once you realized the market was open you could have traded the afternoon and watched that additional 350 tick drop!

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  #232 (permalink)
 lancelottrader 
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I have now had enough consecutive months of hitting or surpassing my goal where I feel strongly that my current system works in a variety of different market conditions. It's very easy to have a few good weeks and be deluded into thinking you have now "mastered" trading.
When most people have "good" weeks, it's often because the market was moving in a strong, directional manner. Throw in several days of choppiness..and then it becomes evident if they can navigate such conditions. Almost any decent system will work in a strongly trending market..even the auto/robot traders. I won't get into the wasted years I spent on "Auto trading". It can be a treacherous adventure filled with euphoria over a "Holy Grail" system that seems to work so well..until the market conditions change...Then suddenly the robot doesn't work so well..and it's back to the drawing board. This process can go on for years. This is not to discount the ultra sophisticated HFT programs that scalp a couple of ticks a 1000 times a day. Obviously those work, but are beyond what we see most retail traders creating. I do like the idea of a system that generates trade signals..but leaves the personal discretion whether to take the trade or not. That way you don't get caught in the mayhem of a sudden news release or choppy markets.

Now having said that, maybe there are retail traders out there that have auto traders that consistently make them profits. I just have never heard of anyone that has.(except for people who sell them..and we all know if they really worked ..that person wouldn't have to ever sell anything..again.) There are plenty of people who will say they have this amazing backtested system...etc.., but I never see any long term live results. It would be nice, of course, to switch one on and watch your account fill up with cash.
Speaking of cash, I notice if you read a lot of trading forums..you will often read people writing, "I don't do trading to make money. That's not what it's about for me. I never think about making money when I trade"..and lots of similar comments. I don't feel the same way. After all the money I have lost and also spent on software, seminars, books, commission etc..I better damned well make some money at this!

Yes, I do appreciate the personal growth, discipline and impulse control I have gained from this endeavor, but this is not just some glorified video game to me. My goal has been to have several months where I can achieve a certain tick level consistently each week and have the metrics to prove it. In other words, I know I have the positive expectancy to achieve that number of ticks each week. Now, the next step is to increase contract size slowly..as not to create too much stress..and just keep doing the same thing.

Strangely enough, I have seen several trade journals of people that seemed to be making at least 100 ticks a week..but they were still unhappy with the results. There was a guy, (I won't mention his name) that had a fantastic oil trading system a while back. He would routinely make 50 ticks or more..on almost a daily basis. He had a good risk/reward ratio..took good entries. Then he decided he needed to make at least 100 ticks a trade or he was somehow a failure as a trader. Then he had a day where he could not bring himself to exit a losing trade and virtually wiped out his entire account. He closed down his journal...then eventually came back with a whole new system..using different charts and market profile..Then he disappeared from the forum again. I wrote him a message and suggested he returned to his original system where he showed months of good results each week. His reply didn't seem to suggest that he would . For all I know, though, he might be doing well now.

My point is that if you have a consistently profitable system, maybe it's just a matter of leveraging more contracts..instead of unrealistically trying to make 500 ticks a week.

As I mentioned in earlier posts, I am getting much better results on my CL trades by setting a target and stop..and allowing most trades to just play out. The exception is when I am taking trades that have to penetrate an area of support or resistance. If I see price double fail at some of these areas and orderflow is showing a strong reversal possibility, then I will move my stop to breakeven. If it doesn't hit my breakeven stop and works it's way through the area to my target, then fine. But if I have a trade without any serious obstacles in the way of my target, I will most likely not interfere with the trade..even if it goes against me. I have had many trades almost hit my stop and then go on to win.

I don't know if there's much more for me to say on this thread. If anyone has any questions or wants to discuss some aspect of CL trading on here, I am willing to participate. But after all the videos I've made and posts, I think I've explained my system pretty well. I will probably check in here from time to time to show results as I up my contract size. Sometimes I wish I could go back in time and tell my old self how to trade properly..and save myself all the money I blew. lol

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Momozo
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I have now had enough consecutive months of hitting or surpassing my goal where I feel strongly that my current system works in a variety of different market conditions. It's very easy to have a few good weeks and be deluded into thinking you have now "mastered" trading.
When most people have "good" weeks, it's often because the market was moving in a strong, directional manner. Throw in several days of choppiness..and then it becomes evident if they can navigate such conditions. Almost any decent system will work in a strongly trending market..even the auto/robot traders. I won't get into the wasted years I spent on "Auto trading". It can be a treacherous adventure filled with euphoria over a "Holy Grail" system that seems to work so well..until the market conditions change...Then suddenly the robot doesn't work so well..and it's back to the drawing board. This process can go on for years. This is not to discount the ultra sophisticated HFT programs that scalp a couple of ticks a 1000 times a day. Obviously those work, but are beyond what we see most retail traders creating. I do like the idea of a system that generates trade signals..but leaves the personal discretion whether to take the trade or not. That way you don't get caught in the mayhem of a sudden news release or choppy markets.

Now having said that, maybe there are retail traders out there that have auto traders that consistently make them profits. I just have never heard of anyone that has.(except for people who sell them..and we all know if they really worked ..that person wouldn't have to ever sell anything..again.) There are plenty of people who will say they have this amazing backtested system...etc.., but I never see any long term live results. It would be nice, of course, to switch one on and watch your account fill up with cash.
Speaking of cash, I notice if you read a lot of trading forums..you will often read people writing, "I don't do trading to make money. That's not what it's about for me. I never think about making money when I trade"..and lots of similar comments. I don't feel the same way. After all the money I have lost and also spent on software, seminars, books, commission etc..I better damned well make some money at this!

Yes, I do appreciate the personal growth, discipline and impulse control I have gained from this endeavor, but this is not just some glorified video game to me. My goal has been to have several months where I can achieve a certain tick level consistently each week and have the metrics to prove it. In other words, I know I have the positive expectancy to achieve that number of ticks each week. Now, the next step is to increase contract size slowly..as not to create too much stress..and just keep doing the same thing.

Strangely enough, I have seen several trade journals of people that seemed to be making at least 100 ticks a week..but they were still unhappy with the results. There was a guy, (I won't mention his name) that had a fantastic oil trading system a while back. He would routinely make 50 ticks or more..on almost a daily basis. He had a good risk/reward ratio..took good entries. Then he decided he needed to make at least 100 ticks a trade or he was somehow a failure as a trader. Then he had a day where he could not bring himself to exit a losing trade and virtually wiped out his entire account. He closed down his journal...then eventually came back with a whole new system..using different charts and market profile..Then he disappeared from the forum again. I wrote him a message and suggested he returned to his original system where he showed months of good results each week. His reply didn't seem to suggest that he would . For all I know, though, he might be doing well now.

My point is that if you have a consistently profitable system, maybe it's just a matter of leveraging more contracts..instead of unrealistically trying to make 500 ticks a week.

As I mentioned in earlier posts, I am getting much better results on my CL trades by setting a target and stop..and allowing most trades to just play out. The exception is when I am taking trades that have to penetrate an area of support or resistance. If I see price double fail at some of these areas and orderflow is showing a strong reversal possibility, then I will move my stop to breakeven. If it doesn't hit my breakeven stop and works it's way through the area to my target, then fine. But if I have a trade without any serious obstacles in the way of my target, I will most likely not interfere with the trade..even if it goes against me. I have had many trades almost hit my stop and then go on to win.

I don't know if there's much more for me to say on this thread. If anyone has any questions or wants to discuss some aspect of CL trading on here, I am willing to participate. But after all the videos I've made and posts, I think I've explained my system pretty well. I will probably check in here from time to time to show results as I up my contract size. Sometimes I wish I could go back in time and tell my old self how to trade properly..and save myself all the money I blew. lol

Hello. I just came to say that is nice to see that someone had almost the same idea as myself. I use a different profile, but the fundaments are the same.


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  #234 (permalink)
BlueRoo
Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
 
 
Posts: 121 since Aug 2013
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Lance, I have been reading your thread for some time...I have started live trading now...and have benefited from the work you have done here...probably because it is a real as it gets...with this post I hope to say thanks by sharing what I am doing...with my futures trading...(ES, ZB, CL, EC and a little less with some other agriculture and grain futures...)

Happy to have anyone's constructive criticism...

My Futures Trading Plan
Chart Setup
Using 4 Hour, 30 Minute, 5 Minute and 1 Minute Candle Stick Charts
Using 75pma with 21 2SD BB supported by ADX (DM)

Establish trend with 4 hour chart and if move is up or down…
Use 30 minute chart to identity trade setup
Use 1 and/or 5 minute to enter trade

Trade Setup
Use double bottom/top into support/resistance with breached trendline
Use continuation (second wave) with falling price into rising average / rising price into falling average
Use areas of congestion and BB where price breaks through or rejects congestion area (false breaks)
Use low ADX for trade entry and high ADX for trade exit
Try not to trade short on a strong up day and long on a strong down down
In other words, try not to trade corrections (easy to recognise with price movement and ADX)

Trade Entry
Look for entry at price leves where failure would incurr a loss of 20-30% of the target profit

Trade Management
Use trendline line to establish a moving and warn of failure
Look for price moves that will provide $300 to $500 return
Use an entry with a stop level no more than 20-30% of target profit

Trade Exit
Set limit orders for targets based on areas of congestion

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  #235 (permalink)
 lancelottrader 
Legendary Market Wizard
west palm beach florida usa
 
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BlueRoo View Post
Lance, I have been reading your thread for some time...I have started live trading now...and have benefited from the work you have done here...probably because it is a real as it gets...with this post I hope to say thanks by sharing what I am doing...with my futures trading...(ES, ZB, CL, EC and a little less with some other agriculture and grain futures...)

Happy to have anyone's constructive criticism...

My Futures Trading Plan
Chart Setup
Using 4 Hour, 30 Minute, 5 Minute and 1 Minute Candle Stick Charts
Using 75pma with 21 2SD BB supported by ADX (DM)

Establish trend with 4 hour chart and if move is up or down…
Use 30 minute chart to identity trade setup
Use 1 and/or 5 minute to enter trade

Trade Setup
Use double bottom/top into support/resistance with breached trendline
Use continuation (second wave) with falling price into rising average / rising price into falling average
Use areas of congestion and BB where price breaks through or rejects congestion area (false breaks)
Use low ADX for trade entry and high ADX for trade exit
Try not to trade short on a strong up day and long on a strong down down
In other words, try not to trade corrections (easy to recognise with price movement and ADX)

Trade Entry
Look for entry at price leves where failure would incurr a loss of 20-30% of the target profit

Trade Management
Use trendline line to establish a moving and warn of failure
Look for price moves that will provide $300 to $500 return
Use an entry with a stop level no more than 20-30% of target profit

Trade Exit
Set limit orders for targets based on areas of congestion

Hi there. Your setups and charting sound pretty good. I think a lot of that is an individual thing and whatever configuration that helps you process what the market is doing should be used. I think once you find what type of charting, indicators..etc..that work best for you, then you should try to stick with them..for the most part. There's nothing wrong with tweaking and evolving. But once you have something that produces consistent results..and I mean the kind where you can week in and week out, achieve a minimum tick goal..then you should keep the basics of what you are doing.
So many traders find themselves on the endless quest for the Holy Grail and constantly change their setups and charting radically. It's becomes one eternal experiment. There's nothing wrong with that, if the goal is merely entertainment and self discovery (or whatever). But if one is serious about being able to produce income from this, then the key is to find something that works and stick to it.
One suggestion I would make is to not get bogged down watching too many instruments at once. I would pick your 2 favorites (mine are now Cl and NQ) and become an expert on both of them. Learn all their nuances and study the market conditions where they move best. Find the two or three price action setups that give the most consistent results. Once you find your two favorite instruments, trade and watch only them.
I would also possibly invest in some sort of order flow tools that can help confirm some moves. I like Tick Strike..but I've read a lot of good things about Jigsaw..and there are probably some others. At the very least look at a few volume charts..I watch a 1 minute and a 10 second volume chart. The 10 second chart can show some very fast volume accumulation coming in .
Another advantage to watching only two instruments is that it becomes easier to anticipate setups before they happen and be more prepared to act if they do. For example, I record my sessions and I continuously do a verbal commentary (almost like I'm in my own trade room.) I will state things like, " Crude is about to hit a small pocket of resistance..if it fails..moves down with some momentum and penetrates my EMA..do i want to enter ?..probably not because price action has been choppy..lots of congestion immediately below my entry..will probably pass. Ok, NQ looks like there's a ton of momentum, tick strike is going crazy..price is accelerating..about to break through a small range..should I enter..where will my stop go..what's the target..Ok going to take it."

I think you can get the idea. This technique keeps me incredibly focused and insures I am never caught off guard. These are the type of things I do to insure my success. To be a retail trader and have any chance at this, you must be willing to do things other people won't do.

Anyhow, good luck with your trading and thanks for your post.

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BlueRoo
Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
 
 
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Lance, Thanks for you comments. I agree with your comments about the holy grail...price action is king...also talk to myself following your trade commentary suggestions...you are right it keeps you focused and engaged...I trade only a couple of the instruments that I listed each day but tend to select which two before the day starts...have not followed volume or order flow and I will explore this idea...finished the week with 3500 my best to date...I want to refine my setups as you have pointed out...lots of work still to do...

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  #237 (permalink)
BlueRoo
Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
 
 
Posts: 121 since Aug 2013
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Lance, Hope your trading is going well...slow week for me up only $1300. Last night I was exploring my software and found I could setup range charts. I have never see these before and they are new to me...It looks like a new bar is created after the number of ticks for the nominated range is achieved rather than it being time based. I found this quite interesting. I was wondering if there is any rationale to how many ticks you should select for your range? Also, wondering what advantages or disadvantages you have found using a range based chart? thanks in Advance Blueroo...

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  #238 (permalink)
 lancelottrader 
Legendary Market Wizard
west palm beach florida usa
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: ninja trader
Broker: Optimus Futures/ Rithmic
Trading: NQ
 
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BlueRoo View Post
Lance, Hope your trading is going well...slow week for me up only $1300. Last night I was exploring my software and found I could setup range charts. I have never see these before and they are new to me...It looks like a new bar is created after the number of ticks for the nominated range is achieved rather than it being time based. I found this quite interesting. I was wondering if there is any rationale to how many ticks you should select for your range? Also, wondering what advantages or disadvantages you have found using a range based chart? thanks in Advance Blueroo...

To be perfectly honest, I never logically analyzed the benefits of using a range chart. I originally got interested in scalping Forex and tried something called Cyrox scalping. It used very fast charts like a 10 second chart etc. Then I discovered something called Logical Forex, which used a 1 range chart for the euro/usd currency pair.

I decided I preferred Oil futures over Forex and I modified the Logical Forex setup and created an entirely different system . I changed it to a 2 range chart and found some setups that I really liked. On that chart I have a line chart instead of candle bars. I use 1 minute, 2 minute and 5 minute charts for additional confirmation. The 2 range allows me to enter moves much faster than waiting for the time based charts. This of course allows a smaller stop loss as well. I have learned to really tune in to the pulse of the market with this chart ..and I am used to spending years looking at these charts. I can also easily glance at them and see if the market conditions are favorable..or if they are choppy or consolidated. A disadvantage is if you pay too much attention to the 2 range chart without looking at higher time frames, you can get sucked into a lot of false reversals.
I have used 4 range and 6 range charts with candle bars as well..along with the 2 range. I think 6 range isn't a bad setting either and I have seen other Cl traders use that setting too.
Now, when you say you are only up $1300 so far..how many contracts are you trading ? If you are only trading 1 contract, then you are up 130 ticks. That's great. Do that every week and work yourself up to 5 contracts and you are making $20,000 a month. I can live with that...then bump up to 10 contracts...Serious $$$$$. Even if you only average 60 ticks a week, you can still make great money if you build up your account and trade size.

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  #239 (permalink)
BlueRoo
Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
 
 
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lancelottrader View Post
Now, when you say you are only up $1300 so far..how many contracts are you trading ? If you are only trading 1 contract, then you are up 130 ticks. That's great. Do that every week and work yourself up to 5 contracts and you are making $20,000 a month. I can live with that...then bump up to 10 contracts...Serious $$$$$. Even if you only average 60 ticks a week, you can still make great money if you build up your account and trade size.

Lance, Thanks for your thoughts on range charts. I will see how I go...from a quick observation between a 6 range and a 1 minute chart it maybe that the range chart is a little more orderly...taking time away you see the structure of the price move or at least it seems more clear...will have to do the screen time to really know....

Yeah, Monday I was too tired to trade and Tuesday night OEC server was down...so the 1300 is one night and 2 trades...CL and NG...It was one contract...not bad I guess...I aim for 500 to 1000 each session I trade...I do trade 2 contracts some times...(both straight up and when I have &*%$ up and need to claw back a loss) but at this time I am happy with 1...and keep working on my discipline...

Cheers Mate!, Michael (BlueRoo)

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  #240 (permalink)
 lancelottrader 
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My biggest jump in trading progress came when I finally identified my trading mistakes and made an all out effort to eliminate them.
I was able to do this by doing a few things that provided the feedback I needed. The first was keeping a written journal of all my trades. I would list the type of setup and how I managed the trade. Of course whatever mistakes I made were clearly detailed.
At the end of the week, I would make an audio recording that would state what I did right and what I did wrong. I would then burn it onto a CD and listen to it in my car. And as I have mentioned many times on this thread , I record all my sessions with screen recording software and review my trades.

Here are some of the the mistakes I made on a frequent basis:

1. Failed to identify, early in the session, what type of market conditions were unfolding. Cl can be very tricky in this regard. It can suddenly move and spike with lots of speed and volume. Then after you are lured in, it can quickly move in the opposite direction. I call this "Spikefoolery". Price will jump a fast 20 or 30 ticks..in a matter of seconds. .. the volume chart shows thousands of contracts have just come in..I wait for a slight pullback ..enter..only to have it reverse a fast 20 plus ticks. It happens again and again. There are other times where chop shows up and you can lose basically every trade.
Generally now, after a couple of losses in a row..I make an assessment of the current conditions and plan to only trade when a significant support or resistance level is hit. I skip the journey to that level since the odds are the chop will be too bouncey for a small stop loss. So I wait for the "Destination" to the price area I want to do business at (In choppy conditions) rather than keep trying to navigate through tumultuous price movement.

2. Getting thrown off mentally after a few consecutive losses: Usually when I am trading properly, I identify a setup, check what obstacles or problems are present.and calculate an approximate target and stop. However, after a few losses, I would get more impulsive and less cautious. The steps I normally would take would often be skipped. Before I knew it, I would be taking multiple foolish entries and rack up large losses. Watching my trades on my recorded replay made this very clear..so I adopted some rules to prevent this. I made it imperative to verbally announce the type of setup on each trade (I have names for my various setup types), and what reasons that I should or shouldn't take the trade. This prevented the impulsive nonsensical entries that I would take. Plus, when I watched back the session I didn't have to try and remember what I was thinking, I could hear the reasons I took the trade.

End of part 1

Failure is not an option
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  #241 (permalink)
 lancelottrader 
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Although I have been fairly satisfied with my trading results as of late, I feel I have been limiting myself to some degree. I have hit at least 60 ticks a week for several months consecutively. For those who think this is meager, it does add up as you start leveraging contracts. I am still trading a small contract size because I had a specific time frame I wanted to prove to myself that I could consistently hit my goal and..that my system worked under all market conditions. I am very confident in that now. To trade large contracts in a system that hasn't been proven over a period of time is a very dangerous thing to do. I've made that mistake in the past.

Having said that, I noticed each day, there were numerous entries I could have taken that seemed like almost inevitable 10 tick winners. When you really get a feel for CL price action after years of screentime (which is way better than any lagging indicator), you can predict these little 10 tick pops. Many are little countertrend bounces of small pockets of support and resistance. Of course my stops are rarely higher than 10 to 12 ticks anyways, so these 10 tick wins still have a decent risk/reward ratio. However, since my system is predicated on having winners generally 20 to 30 ticks, I have been just ignoring all these 10 tick opportunities. I just reason, it's not worth it. But after being right in my predictions 100's of times, I decided to supplement my bigger winners with these scalps. Today, in addition to a 20 tick winner and a 30 tick winner, I nailed four 10 tick scalps and lost 1 for 10. Making 80 ticks in one day is really good for me. I don't usually do that. In fact, that's a good week for me.

So, now instead of just being a person who only takes a trade because I want 20 to 30 ticks, I will also take a few 10 tick scalps when I see them. I feel I will definitely be able to upgrade my weekly goal amount. No reason to limit oneself.

I know some think you are only a good trader if you hold trades for a 100 ticks or more. I guess I don't have the personality to be up 50 ticks on a trade..then suddenly be down 30 ..and then keep holding because I "just know the market has to go up" etc. Of course one of the best traders in the world, Paul Rotter just scalps small targets and makes millions a month doing it.

So, the bottom line is I will still go for the higher targets, depending on immediate market conditions..but will no longer ignore obvious 10 tick scalp setups.

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  #242 (permalink)
 lancelottrader 
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I feel I have refined my setups in the last few months and my consistency has greatly improved. Although, I have been hitting my tick goal every week for quite some time now, I was also taking several poor entries each week. I now have only a few setups that I use and they are very, very simple for me to spot. I also know the type of market conditions they work best in. From this, I have been able to achieve a much higher weekly goal now.

The setups are all variations of 3 basic types of trades....A pullback in a strong fresh move or trend, a double top or double bottom reversal, and a small range breakout. Again I have specialized techniques for this, but they are all based on these three types of moves. It doesn't get much easier than that.

The pullbacks may need to fail twice at an area before re-entering the trend..or it may be a type with a single fail. I have gotten a feel for this and have a pretty good hit rate on these type of trades. These are my bread and butter trades and Cl has patterns for this that are very obvious for me to spot. I do very little on the range breaks..unless my order flow tools show that it is a viable move. Too many breakouts on Cl tend to fail.
Since most of my trades make at least twice what they lose, just taking all great setups works out well from a mathematical standpoint.
I feel the simpler I've made this, the easier it has become to be consistent.

I have been on a few forums..before finding this one..and I see the same sort of traders on all of them. They are the proverbial "Seekers of the Holy Grail." Every week, they try a new indicator or chart setup. One week it's Renko bars, the next volume charts..or you name it. They can tell you the V-Wap for every day of the last two years..and every possible calculated pivot or fib level. But they never seem to have any consistent methodology. If you read their journals, their system changes every week. They never fail to grasp that their "system" may work in a nice straightforward volatile day, but totally collapse under erratic price moves. By viewing different types of charts everyday, they are never seeing price movement the same way..so they never learn to actually read market conditions. They think that their newest indicator..now set at it's newest calculation, will somehow provide their entry criteria. Then when it fails..it's off to another indicator and a new chart setup.

This is understandable when you are starting out, but some people stay stuck in this phase for years and years. If you look at the beginning of my journal, my methods have evolved quite a bit, too. But the charts are basically the same. This has helped me process the market through a similar vantage point for many years. If I had changed charts every few weeks..I seriously doubt I would now have the ability to hit my goals every week.

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  #243 (permalink)
 US Bond Trader 
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lancelottrader View Post



..and I see the same sort of traders on all of them. They are the proverbial "Seekers of the Holy Grail." Every week, they try a new indicator or chart setup. One week it's Renko bars, the next volume charts..or you name it. They can tell you the V-Wap for every day of the last two years..and every possible calculated pivot or fib level. But they never seem to have any consistent methodology. If you read their journals, their system changes every week. They never fail to grasp that their "system" may work in a nice straightforward volatile day, but totally collapse under erratic price moves. By viewing different types of charts everyday, they are never seeing price movement the same way..so they never learn to actually read market conditions. They think that their newest indicator..now set at it's newest calculation, will somehow provide their entry criteria. Then when it fails..it's off to another indicator and a new chart setup.


Yes, I agree totally with this observation.

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  #244 (permalink)
 PK 1 
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lancelottrader View Post
...
I feel the simpler I've made this, the easier it has become to be consistent.
...

So truly spoken, your whole posting. One has to progress and stick to one or a few things which are fitting. Starting out with a not-bad trading approach and refining it over a longer time opens the eyes to likely make it profitable. For myself since about two years I'm mainly sticking to a really simple approuch doing it on ES, CL and partly Forex-Pairs and together with daily experience I can't believe why I didn't do this long long time before. But I don't want to talk about me, your posting was just reminding me to myself getting back to the a 'simple' aprouch making it usable and stick on it without changing over and over.

Thx for this thread!

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  #245 (permalink)
 lancelottrader 
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PK 1 View Post
So truly spoken, your whole posting. One has to progress and stick to one or a few things which are fitting. Starting out with a not-bad trading approach and refining it over a longer time opens the eyes to likely make it profitable. For myself since about two years I'm mainly sticking to a really simple approuch doing it on ES, CL and partly Forex-Pairs and together with daily experience I can't believe why I didn't do this long long time before. But I don't want to talk about me, your posting was just reminding me to myself getting back to the a 'simple' aprouch making it usable and stick on it without changing over and over.

Thx for this thread!

I'm glad the post had meaning to you. I hope your trading goes great.

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  #246 (permalink)
BlueRoo
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lancelottrader View Post
I feel the simpler I've made this, the easier it has become to be consistent.

I have found failing to quickly recognize my setups causes me to hesitate. I have also found changing chart time frames to be only cause confusion. I am trying to learn to make it simpler. I am continuing to try and simplify my setups and have clearly defined trigger and confirmation bars. When I make it simpler I find that I question myself. I have tended to think that analysis is the key to consistency. But I am learning it has nothing to do with it. Flawless execution is the key. I have even started to wonder if I need any analysis! For example, I have been trying to have a bias for the day...and I have found this doesn't seem to have any real value. Makes me wonder what I have been doing all these years...

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  #247 (permalink)
 alucko33 
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where can I find the little volume charts sitting on top of your chart?

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  #248 (permalink)
 lancelottrader 
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BlueRoo View Post
I have found failing to quickly recognize my setups causes me to hesitate. I have also found changing chart time frames to be only cause confusion. I am trying to learn to make it simpler. I am continuing to try and simplify my setups and have clearly defined trigger and confirmation bars. When I make it simpler I find that I question myself. I have tended to think that analysis is the key to consistency. But I am learning it has nothing to do with it. Flawless execution is the key. I have even started to wonder if I need any analysis! For example, I have been trying to have a bias for the day...and I have found this doesn't seem to have any real value. Makes me wonder what I have been doing all these years...

Excellent points. Not too long ago, I scrolled through about 6 months of Cl charts and also reviewed some of my recorded sessions. On my 2 range entry chart, I saw what you almost might call Geometric patterns. I circled many of these patterns and studied them..where they were occurring, and what "wave" of the current trend they showed up. I also found corresponding patterns on 1 minute candle charts. I discovered when the two time frames were in sync with certain setup formations..and the market conditions had the type of volatility I look for..that I now had a high probability entry.
Now when I see it occur, I quickly run through a "checklist". What kind of immediate price congestion is in the way? Are we in a consolidated/chop period ? Is the the market too volatile and chaotic? (think first 5 minutes of an Crude Oil Inventory report) Is it too slow and lacks momentum ? If everything is a go, then when my price crosses the black spine ( on my 2 range) I enter without hesitation. My stop goes behind the last swing high or low of the setup. If it's more than a 15 tick stop, I will usually skip the trade. Occasionally on bouncy breakout trades, I will allow a 20 tick stop..but it's rare. And usually if price is going against me hard, I often exit with no more than a 10 tick loss.
I have found that having too much bias is not good for trading. No matter what I think is going to happen, I constantly run little "what-if" scenarios. In other words, what type of possible setup do I think could happen in the opposite direction of what I think is going to happen? I often have a strong bias concerning resistance or support levels and once I get close to these levels..I am certain they will get hit. But many times they don't and I miss reversal signals because I am only thinking in that one direction.

Anyhow, here is a couple of charts that might illustrate some typical setups I tend to look at. These are the same session on a 1 minute and a 2 range chart.

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  #249 (permalink)
 lancelottrader 
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alucko33 View Post
where can I find the little volume charts sitting on top of your chart?

Sorry.Just noticed this post now. These are little charts I made from Ninja trader..I just open a 1 minute and a 10 second chart. Then I go into the Ninja default indicator list and select the Volume up down indicator. The next step is just to adjust the window of the chart so only the volume bars are showing..size it the way you want and voila!

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inverter
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good theme, good pristup..CL is really strong shifts cost and gives a lot of opportunities. doing good job:money

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  #251 (permalink)
 lancelottrader 
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I can think back, to a not so distant past, where a few consecutive losses would cause an instantaneous shift in my mental faculties. Due to having endured some substantial losses (like most beginning retail traders) and never having the ability to string together several weeks of consistent results, the whole endeavor of trading was basically becoming "A leap of faith" for me. I had this vague feeling (or delusion? that I could succeed at trading, but the reality of my performance kept hitting me squarely in the face.

So, I would start a session in a very focused manner and closely adhere to my system (or what I imagined was a system )Then I would take a loss...Then maybe two more. Suddenly my mind would start getting flooded with several negative thoughts and emotions..."Who am I kidding? I'll never make it at this. I'm just going to keep losing my money, like I always have. Why did I ever get into this? I really don't know what I'm doing. "

Then, I would start with the impulse trading..the revenge trades..until I would come out of this frenzy and find I was 100 ticks down on the day. A curled up fetal position on my bed is where I would be next..usually accompanied by a pounding headache. The next day, the process would start again. Adding to my stress was the fact that some financial problems I was having were leaving me with no alternative but to actually make money with my trading. To somehow feel the only way you will be able to make money is through trading (especially when there has been only failure) was extremely stressful.

The problem was I didn't have a workable system..and still hadn't managed to keep my emotions in check. I remember writing to Brian ( Panda Warrior) and I would tell him how the trading was making my blood pressure go through the roof and I wasn't feeling well. He warned me that I could have some serious health problems if I kept this up. But I felt I had no other choice. Figure out my trading or end up totally broke.
The good thing about having no other choice is it often forces you to think in creative ways and finally find a solution.
So fast forward to now...I was able to sell my home and have a few other things happen where I bought myself more time..However, in my intense desire to find a workable trading system..I think I finally did it! I have seen many, many months of consistent results. Now, when I lose a few trades. I no longer get frazzled. Why? Because I have positive expectancy. I know that by the end of the week, I will most probably hit my goal. So I now have unwavering conviction that I will succeed. My heart no longer pounds when I am in a trade because it doesn't really matter if any one individual trade wins or loses. I know the math of my system is on my side. In fact, sometimes when my stop is hit, I chuckle. I think back at how disturbed I would get and now it's like "Sorry, you can't upset me now..motherf....cause I win in the long run!

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  #252 (permalink)
 josh 
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There are always other choices @lancelottrader .. So was it "figuring things out" that was the reason for the turnaround, or could it be the reduced pressure as a result of 'buying yourself more time,' which enabled you to be more objective in your assessment?

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 lancelottrader 
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josh View Post
There are always other choices @lancelottrader .. So was it "figuring things out" that was the reason for the turnaround, or could it be the reduced pressure as a result of 'buying yourself more time,' which enabled you to be more objective in your assessment?

That's a very good question.
I guess the reason I felt there was "no other choice" is that for many years I was out of the job market. I had been doing very well with my Real estate investments...but had issues with the collapse of the Florida real Estate market and it's aftermath. To suddenly find a job...when I had not had one in over 10 years...that would pay me enough to cover my expenses and costs seemed highly unlikely.

To answer your question , was it discovering a viable system..or having reduced pressure..the answer is that it was a combination of both. In my desperation, my brain was focused on a single task..finding a way to trade consistently profitable. I probably would have found that eventually..but it may have taken much longer. I probably would have been in the experimentation stage that you see so many others in..for many more years. Instead, I wanted to find a simple way..and once I proved it worked, I decided I wouldn't keep changing it and tinkering. So it was basically have a few setups that were high probability, be able to read market conditions in Real Time (not by looking at lagging indicators) and win, on average 2 to 3 times the amount of my stop loss. So that by only having to win a little over 50% of my trades, it would still make money.
But even with a good system, if you have overwhelming pressure to make it, it can psychologically affect you to the point where you trade poorly. So, having the pressure taken off was a huge part of being able to follow the system in a calm and rational manner..as opposed to trading in a frightened, anxious state.

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  #254 (permalink)
 ChocLab 
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lancelottrader, are you a CL scalper? what system do you use?

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  #255 (permalink)
 lancelottrader 
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perrysingh View Post
lancelottrader, are you a CL scalper? what system do you use?

I'm assuming you haven't read any of my posts from the last 26 pages..so I will summarize the system..the best I can.
It is basically a hybrid system that can vary somewhat according to whatever market conditions are presenting themselves on any given day..or moment. It is based on a combination of price action setups, order flow, and a recognition of often repeated patterns observed from several years of watching Cl on various timeframes. It involves timing into an entry that allows for a fairly small stop and targets that can vary anywhere from 10 up to 50 plus ticks or more.
There are days when the volatility in Cl presents larger target opportunities and the goal is to take advantage of those days by maximizing the profits. There are times when it may be too late to catch an early part of the move , but the ability to extract a smaller profit is still there. For example price may have moved up already close to 100 ticks..but the trend is too strong for a viable reversal trade. However, some shallow pullbacks and trend re-entries can be scalped fairly easily if one has the skill and experience. I never go for less than 10 ticks on those moves and I have a high degree of accuracy. Another scalp opportunity often arises when price fails at an area and then does a countertrend bounce. Again years of recording and studying these moves gives one a feel for it.

I see no reason to have 50 tick to 100 tick stop losses. I find having price move that far against me..to be stressful. Some believe in not using any stop loss..but again I don't like that kind of stress. That's why I time my entries very carefully, so my stop is in a position that can be small..but also has a good chance of not being hit if the trade moves with some momentum.

Crude is a very tricky instrument to trade and I think it takes a lot of focus to trade the way I do. I also watch NQ to some degree as well since my system works well on it ..when it is moving well. But watching more than two instruments at once can cause me to miss crucial entries..so I only stick to two at the most.

I have struggled with the idea of a maximum daily drawdown since I always feel if one is good,. then they should just continue to take all good trades. However, I have had some very big losing days when I don't use one. In the past I would give myself one, and then continue to trade even after it was hit. Needless to say, I lost a lot on those days. I had to come up with some creative ways of stopping myself. I bought this little safe that you can program to open only after so many hours (or days) has elapsed. When I hit my daily drawdown, I would shut off my computers, gather up the mouses..and lock them in the safe and program it not to open untill the market had closed. That fixed my inability to walk away from "The Casino."
But I use a max daily drawdown now, because I figure if I hit it, either I'm off..or the market is off.

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  #256 (permalink)
 rkmt 
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lancelottrader View Post
I'm assuming you haven't read any of my posts from the last 26 pages..so I will summarize the system..the best I can.
It is basically a hybrid system that can vary somewhat according to whatever market conditions are presenting themselves on any given day..or moment. It is based on a combination of price action setups, order flow, and a recognition of often repeated patterns observed from several years of watching Cl on various timeframes. It involves timing into an entry that allows for a fairly small stop and targets that can vary anywhere from 10 up to 50 plus ticks or more.
There are days when the volatility in Cl presents larger target opportunities and the goal is to take advantage of those days by maximizing the profits. There are times when it may be too late to catch an early part of the move , but the ability to extract a smaller profit is still there. For example price may have moved up already close to 100 ticks..but the trend is too strong for a viable reversal trade. However, some shallow pullbacks and trend re-entries can be scalped fairly easily if one has the skill and experience. I never go for less than 10 ticks on those moves and I have a high degree of accuracy. Another scalp opportunity often arises when price fails at an area and then does a countertrend bounce. Again years of recording and studying these moves gives one a feel for it.

I see no reason to have 50 tick to 100 tick stop losses. I find having price move that far against me..to be stressful. Some believe in not using any stop loss..but again I don't like that kind of stress. That's why I time my entries very carefully, so my stop is in a position that can be small..but also has a good chance of not being hit if the trade moves with some momentum.

Crude is a very tricky instrument to trade and I think it takes a lot of focus to trade the way I do. I also watch NQ to some degree as well since my system works well on it ..when it is moving well. But watching more than two instruments at once can cause me to miss crucial entries..so I only stick to two at the most.

I have struggled with the idea of a maximum daily drawdown since I always feel if one is good,. then they should just continue to take all good trades. However, I have had some very big losing days when I don't use one. In the past I would give myself one, and then continue to trade even after it was hit. Needless to say, I lost a lot on those days. I had to come up with some creative ways of stopping myself. I bought this little safe that you can program to open only after so many hours (or days) has elapsed. When I hit my daily drawdown, I would shut off my computers, gather up the mouses..and lock them in the safe and program it not to open untill the market had closed. That fixed my inability to walk away from "The Casino."
But I use a max daily drawdown now, because I figure if I hit it, either I'm off..or the market is off.

Thanks for the all of the post I just read thru the 26 pages and the videos, I found it helpful to hear your thoughts on how to manage trades, I also trade the CL in a very similar manner and find I trade best with strong momentum and order flow as well. catching a big winner occasionally is something I am looking to add to my trading.

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  #257 (permalink)
 lancelottrader 
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I had recently made a few changes to my trading in an attempt to increase my weekly tick goal..and I found the results to be rather poor.

Instead of trying to achieve my usual amount for the week...which I had been doing fairly consistently, I decided to implement a daily trading goal. I figured if I hit that goal, I would double my income per week. The problem with a daily tick or dollar goal is that it can make you TRY to make those ticks each day. That can also cause your subconscious to try and look for reasons to take trades..that might not be the best in terms of being a great setup. Also lets say I only need 10 more ticks to hit my goal. I might then start looking for all these 10 tick opportunities..and that's what happened. Because they seem easier to make, I found myself reverting back to being a 10 tick scalper. I am pretty good at that..but my best results over the last few years have been from taking trades that win roughly twice the risk. So that means if my stop is about 10 to 12..I like to go for at least 20. This has a much more forgiving win/loss ratio.

I also realize that my system works best on days where there is strong momentum and directional price movement. My preferred setup is the first or second pullback in a fresh, new movement. There are days when those conditions present themselves and it is fairly easy to spot. I virtually always do well on those days. But on the choppier more erratic days, I can easily get into trouble and quickly hit my max drawdown.

By trying to hit a daily goal, I was taking trades in less than optimal conditions..and doing way more 10 tick scalping. I started playing more countertrend moves and trying to catch tops and bottoms for some quick scalps. Some days this worked and some it didn't. Plus I found when I was down a bit, it was much harder to have a winning day by taking lots of 10 tick scalps on Cl. 20 ticks on CL is not that hard...if you have the right conditions and take the right setups. I can get 30 ticks pretty easily as well.

I also realize that it's ok to not trade a session if I don't like the conditions. With no daily goal, there is no motivation to HAVE to trade. I see no reason to put money at risk if I am not seeing the optimal conditions and setups. If I have to go a few days without pulling the trigger, so be it. This is easier said then done, especially since I seem to be pretty impulsive. A big key is not let the emotion of "missing a move" and getting upset about it adversely affect you. Instead, I am learning to say No...to anything that isn't exactly what I am looking for. This does take a lot of discipline. So, instead of trying to make ticks, it becomes waiting for the perfect conditions...like a Sniper.

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  #258 (permalink)
BlueRoo
Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
 
 
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Lance, I agree having goals for daily return is subjective. I think there is nothing wrong with have an idea of what you would like to earn per day but it should not control or influence trading behavior. I like to get $500 to $1000 per session I trade. I think that is reasonable. I think it is not greedy. And I think it is quite achievable. A higher goal might not have the same probability. And that's the point. Letting go of expectations around a goal is good but not to have one may be less beneficial. I think it is much better to have a goal of making and income than think trading will lead you to great riches. Well at least for the little guys like me. What is better is to be able to trade, not work for a boss and to choose what I do with my time here on earth. It is a bit like learning not to think you know what the market is going to do. Which we all know does not help.

Dealing with different market conditions is tricky. One thing that I have noticed by chance is that some of my setups suit different days. Or maybe they occur more when the conditions are right. I have not refined this but I have the idea of refining my setups so on a range day only those setups that would suit this kind of day are pervasive. As I write this it sounds a bit "wrong" so I need to do more work on the idea...but anyway I have thought this is how my trading could cope with different days.

I am still trading 1 lot trades and starting to build a database of metrics around the statistics BM and others have talked about in other threads. Hoping to get to 100 trades with the new work I have been doing and get a real honest look at how I am doing.

And you are spot on with saying "No". I find it difficult in the trading moment to be clear and flawless in applying my trading setups...my mind tries to reason me out of taking the trade or the complete opposite and tries to convince me that this is exactly what I am looking for when it isn't.

My best days are when I have 2 trades over two hours and I am out with $800. I am content with that...3 times a week and I have to start controlling my emotions and elation.

I found recently the idea of moving my setups into long term memory through doing lots of rehearsal and repetition. I think this will help in recognizing when to say Yes and No in the trading moment.

Always enjoy your narrative and I hope you continue to share. Cheers, BlueRoo

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  #259 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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lancelottrader View Post
I had recently made a few changes to my trading in an attempt to increase my weekly tick goal..and I found the results to be rather poor.

Instead of trying to achieve my usual amount for the week...which I had been doing fairly consistently, I decided to implement a daily trading goal. I figured if I hit that goal, I would double my income per week. The problem with a daily tick or dollar goal is that it can make you TRY to make those ticks each day. That can also cause your subconscious to try and look for reasons to take trades..that might not be the best in terms of being a great setup. Also lets say I only need 10 more ticks to hit my goal. I might then start looking for all these 10 tick opportunities..and that's what happened. Because they seem easier to make, I found myself reverting back to being a 10 tick scalper. I am pretty good at that..but my best results over the last few years have been from taking trades that win roughly twice the risk. So that means if my stop is about 10 to 12..I like to go for at least 20. This has a much more forgiving win/loss ratio.

I also realize that my system works best on days where there is strong momentum and directional price movement. My preferred setup is the first or second pullback in a fresh, new movement. There are days when those conditions present themselves and it is fairly easy to spot. I virtually always do well on those days. But on the choppier more erratic days, I can easily get into trouble and quickly hit my max drawdown.

By trying to hit a daily goal, I was taking trades in less than optimal conditions..and doing way more 10 tick scalping. I started playing more countertrend moves and trying to catch tops and bottoms for some quick scalps. Some days this worked and some it didn't. Plus I found when I was down a bit, it was much harder to have a winning day by taking lots of 10 tick scalps on Cl. 20 ticks on CL is not that hard...if you have the right conditions and take the right setups. I can get 30 ticks pretty easily as well.

I also realize that it's ok to not trade a session if I don't like the conditions. With no daily goal, there is no motivation to HAVE to trade. I see no reason to put money at risk if I am not seeing the optimal conditions and setups. If I have to go a few days without pulling the trigger, so be it. This is easier said then done, especially since I seem to be pretty impulsive. A big key is not let the emotion of "missing a move" and getting upset about it adversely affect you. Instead, I am learning to say No...to anything that isn't exactly what I am looking for. This does take a lot of discipline. So, instead of trying to make ticks, it becomes waiting for the perfect conditions...like a Sniper.

As you probably know, the idea of a daily goal is something that I struggled with for a long time. It was purely emotional on my part. I liked thinking I make "X" dollars per day per contract. The truth is, the market doesn't care if you want to make "X" or "Y". It just does what its going to do and its our job to extract what we think we can reasonably expect to extract consistently day after day.

Compounding this issue was the idea that many people both here in the forum and elsewhere kept saying, that " you have to absolutely kill it on days where your winners run and run. But this only frustrated me further. On days where I held, I'd give up 20-30 tick winners only to have them come back to BE or turn into losers. On the days where I took the 20-30 tick winners, it ran like crazy. This drove me absolutely bonkers over time.

After a long time, I finally made peace with the idea of daily bread. Just take a certain amount every day and be happy with that. Except for one thing, I kept thinking daily bread was a set number of tick per day. Again this was/is counter productive. Some days those set number of ticks can be pretty hard to come by. Finally after many many months of emotional struggle, the answer hit me like a ton of bricks.

I primarily trade from consolidation to expansion. This means I wait for narrow patterns to form and then look for that moment in time where price is making its escape from that area. Some people call it a break out and I guess it is but there are lots of nuances that make it more complicated than a simple BO.

Suffice to say, the idea of consolidation carries with it the idea of range expansion. Therefore, I arrived a way to determine the daily bread number based on that range expansion. Sometimes thats gonna be 20 ticks and sometimes thats 40 ticks. Whatever pattern I'm trading has a mathematical target zone. I aim for that zone. That's it. If I make it, then I'm done. That's my daily bread. No more, no less. When I start looking for more, I end up losing or getting less than optimal results.

Add all this up over the week and I end up with a nice week. Size up when the risk is appropriate and a nice trading plan appears.

In a nutshell, daily bread is dynamic and not fixed. This fixes my issue of how many ticks to go for. Its just whatever the patter says to go for....its made a huge difference in my emotions while trading, its allowed me to be much more patient with both the set up and the payoff.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #260 (permalink)
 lancelottrader 
Legendary Market Wizard
west palm beach florida usa
 
Experience: Advanced
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Trading: NQ
 
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BlueRoo View Post
Lance, I agree having goals for daily return is subjective. I think there is nothing wrong with have an idea of what you would like to earn per day but it should not control or influence trading behavior. I like to get $500 to $1000 per session I trade. I think that is reasonable. I think it is not greedy. And I think it is quite achievable. A higher goal might not have the same probability. And that's the point. Letting go of expectations around a goal is good but not to have one may be less beneficial. I think it is much better to have a goal of making and income than think trading will lead you to great riches. Well at least for the little guys like me. What is better is to be able to trade, not work for a boss and to choose what I do with my time here on earth. It is a bit like learning not to think you know what the market is going to do. Which we all know does not help.

Dealing with different market conditions is tricky. One thing that I have noticed by chance is that some of my setups suit different days. Or maybe they occur more when the conditions are right. I have not refined this but I have the idea of refining my setups so on a range day only those setups that would suit this kind of day are pervasive. As I write this it sounds a bit "wrong" so I need to do more work on the idea...but anyway I have thought this is how my trading could cope with different days.

I am still trading 1 lot trades and starting to build a database of metrics around the statistics BM and others have talked about in other threads. Hoping to get to 100 trades with the new work I have been doing and get a real honest look at how I am doing.

And you are spot on with saying "No". I find it difficult in the trading moment to be clear and flawless in applying my trading setups...my mind tries to reason me out of taking the trade or the complete opposite and tries to convince me that this is exactly what I am looking for when it isn't.

My best days are when I have 2 trades over two hours and I am out with $800. I am content with that...3 times a week and I have to start controlling my emotions and elation.

I found recently the idea of moving my setups into long term memory through doing lots of rehearsal and repetition. I think this will help in recognizing when to say Yes and No in the trading moment.

Always enjoy your narrative and I hope you continue to share. Cheers, BlueRoo

Very good points. And just to clarify, I still like having a weekly goal. And if one gets to the point where they are either trying to build up their account or make an income consistently, then it is good to have some sort of track record in terms of weekly ticks. Then you can calculate what you could make eventually by trading more size. Maybe I want 200 ticks a week, but my track record shows that over a period of time I average only about 60. Even though that sounds mediocre, what is that when I get to 5 contracts? How about 10? or 20? 10 contracts at 60 ticks a week is $6000 a week which is nothing to sneeze at.. for sitting at home trading for 2 hours or so a day. I believe this is entirely possible. So if I know my "batting" average is around 60 ticks a week, that is more than enough to earn decent money over time. Now this doesn't mean I hit always 60 a week exactly. Maybe I have a terrible week and only make 20..but the next week I make 100. So I'm talking about an average over time.

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  #261 (permalink)
 lancelottrader 
Legendary Market Wizard
west palm beach florida usa
 
Experience: Advanced
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Trading: NQ
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
As you probably know, the idea of a daily goal is something that I struggled with for a long time. It was purely emotional on my part. I liked thinking I make "X" dollars per day per contract. The truth is, the market doesn't care if you want to make "X" or "Y". It just does what its going to do and its our job to extract what we think we can reasonably expect to extract consistently day after day.

Compounding this issue was the idea that many people both here in the forum and elsewhere kept saying, that " you have to absolutely kill it on days where your winners run and run. But this only frustrated me further. On days where I held, I'd give up 20-30 tick winners only to have them come back to BE or turn into losers. On the days where I took the 20-30 tick winners, it ran like crazy. This drove me absolutely bonkers over time.

After a long time, I finally made peace with the idea of daily bread. Just take a certain amount every day and be happy with that. Except for one thing, I kept thinking daily bread was a set number of tick per day. Again this was/is counter productive. Some days those set number of ticks can be pretty hard to come by. Finally after many many months of emotional struggle, the answer hit me like a ton of bricks.

I primarily trade from consolidation to expansion. This means I wait for narrow patterns to form and then look for that moment in time where price is making its escape from that area. Some people call it a break out and I guess it is but there are lots of nuances that make it more complicated than a simple BO.

Suffice to say, the idea of consolidation carries with it the idea of range expansion. Therefore, I arrived a way to determine the daily bread number based on that range expansion. Sometimes thats gonna be 20 ticks and sometimes thats 40 ticks. Whatever pattern I'm trading has a mathematical target zone. I aim for that zone. That's it. If I make it, then I'm done. That's my daily bread. No more, no less. When I start looking for more, I end up losing or getting less than optimal results.

Add all this up over the week and I end up with a nice week. Size up when the risk is appropriate and a nice trading plan appears.

In a nutshell, daily bread is dynamic and not fixed. This fixes my issue of how many ticks to go for. Its just whatever the patter says to go for....its made a huge difference in my emotions while trading, its allowed me to be much more patient with both the set up and the payoff.

Thank you Brian for your comments and observation. I really like and agree with your concept of trading the range expansion. Sometimes when I start trading at 9 am est, I might find a recent "range expansion" that is already under way. Other times, it may not show up until way later in the session...or not at all.
The problem with CL is it can be very tricky as far as determining what kind of market conditions you are dealing with. Sometimes you get what seems to be a strong sudden move that starts spiking. It leads you to believe that it will be a move with some strong follow through and then it suddenly fizzles and quickly reverses.
Some things I look for is how strong are the pushes or "waves" I am seeing. This is not really the same as Elliot waves..but more like noticing how far and fast did price go in some it's price swings. To me, the wave is about price moving in a strong directional move while staying in a fairly tight ema. When the price exits the ema, I call that the end of that wave. So, if I'm seeing these large fast waves...and price hasn't hit any strong areas of support and resistance, I know at some point after a pullback, I could get another strong wave to ride under these conditions. On other times, you might see the consolidation you were referring to, where price can go a few ticks up..exit the ema..then turn right around and just chop around. So my point is..the bigger waves I am seeing on a particular day can help determine my target size and of course this ties in with what kind of order flow and volume is present.

I like your "Daily Bread" idea as well. My problem is even after all these years, I still realize I am caught up in the concept of over emphasizing having a winning day. If I am 20 ticks down..or so, I still feel that compulsion to make up those losses and end up feeling like a winner..for the day, instead of a loser. Sometimes, though, it might not be a good day to attempt anymore trades. So I need to understand it's ok to have a small losing day and that in no way did I FAIL. So, I don't have to keep going till I hit my maximum loss limit for the day.
I want to be able to trade more like how a robot or machine would trade. Now, I really don't feel there is a way to automate my trading. I can't think of a way to have a program that can discern certain variables such as market conditions and price action patterns and setups the way my brain can see them. But assuming I could automate my system, the algorithm I would want.. obviously wouldn't worry that it was 20 ticks down on the day. The algorithm would not worry about the need "To be made whole" and start taking sub-optimal setups. It would wait until all the conditions were met..and take the highest probability setup..calculate a reasonble target and fire off the trade. If the conditions didn't show up on a particular day, no trades would be taken. This is how I need to be. I need to be kind of a like a "Cyborg"...which has the human brain's pattern recognition combined with a machine like ability to avoid all impulsive and counterproductive emotional responses.
So...maybe we become The Crude Dude Cyborg Trader??? lol

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  #262 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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lancelottrader View Post
Thank you Brian for your comments and observation. I really like and agree with your concept of trading the range expansion. Sometimes when I start trading at 9 am est, I might find a recent "range expansion" that is already under way. Other times, it may not show up until way later in the session...or not at all.
The problem with CL is it can be very tricky as far as determining what kind of market conditions you are dealing with. Sometimes you get what seems to be a strong sudden move that starts spiking. It leads you to believe that it will be a move with some strong follow through and then it suddenly fizzles and quickly reverses.
Some things I look for is how strong are the pushes or "waves" I am seeing. This is not really the same as Elliot waves..but more like noticing how far and fast did price go in some it's price swings. To me, the wave is about price moving in a strong directional move while staying in a fairly tight ema. When the price exits the ema, I call that the end of that wave. So, if I'm seeing these large fast waves...and price hasn't hit any strong areas of support and resistance, I know at some point after a pullback, I could get another strong wave to ride under these conditions. On other times, you might see the consolidation you were referring to, where price can go a few ticks up..exit the ema..then turn right around and just chop around. So my point is..the bigger waves I am seeing on a particular day can help determine my target size and of course this ties in with what kind of order flow and volume is present.

I like your "Daily Bread" idea as well. My problem is even after all these years, I still realize I am caught up in the concept of over emphasizing having a winning day. If I am 20 ticks down..or so, I still feel that compulsion to make up those losses and end up feeling like a winner..for the day, instead of a loser. Sometimes, though, it might not be a good day to attempt anymore trades. So I need to understand it's ok to have a small losing day and that in no way did I FAIL. So, I don't have to keep going till I hit my maximum loss limit for the day.
I want to be able to trade more like how a robot or machine would trade. Now, I really don't feel there is a way to automate my trading. I can't think of a way to have a program that can discern certain variables such as market conditions and price action patterns and setups the way my brain can see them. But assuming I could automate my system, the algorithm I would want.. obviously wouldn't worry that it was 20 ticks down on the day. The algorithm would not worry about the need "To be made whole" and start taking sub-optimal setups. It would wait until all the conditions were met..and take the highest probability setup..calculate a reasonble target and fire off the trade. If the conditions didn't show up on a particular day, no trades would be taken. This is how I need to be. I need to be kind of a like a "Cyborg"...which has the human brain's pattern recognition combined with a machine like ability to avoid all impulsive and counterproductive emotional responses.
So...maybe we become The Crude Dude Cyborg Trader??? lol

At issue is not the method, but what it can reasonably produce every day. The Daily bread concept is that sometimes, your daily bread is a negative day. Not that you lost but that the market didn't have anything to give you that day based on how you see and trade the market. As long as the process is followed, then a losing day is nothing to be ashamed of or to beat yourself up over.

That being said, I think its possible to win every day. Is it probable? Most likely not but long winning streaks should be the norm and not the exception. For me, the emotional win of doing it right is more important than the dollar win.

I agree with you that averaging 50-100 ticks a week is a home run. Size up when the risk is appropriate and your golden!

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #263 (permalink)
 fsrcapital 
Fredericksburg, Virginia, United States
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES
 
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Just read the thread from start to finish. Crude Dude and Panda, thanks for the great commentary. The evolution from the beginning to the current was awesome to read. I wish the Crude Dude lots of success and I will be watching with great anticipation as your journey continues. Please consider adding to this thread as you move forward.

THANKS MUCH!!!

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  #264 (permalink)
 lancelottrader 
Legendary Market Wizard
west palm beach florida usa
 
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Trading: NQ
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
At issue is not the method, but what it can reasonably produce every day. The Daily bread concept is that sometimes, your daily bread is a negative day. Not that you lost but that the market didn't have anything to give you that day based on how you see and trade the market. As long as the process is followed, then a losing day is nothing to be ashamed of or to beat yourself up over.

That being said, I think its possible to win every day. Is it probable? Most likely not but long winning streaks should be the norm and not the exception. For me, the emotional win of doing it right is more important than the dollar win.

I agree with you that averaging 50-100 ticks a week is a home run. Size up when the risk is appropriate and your golden!

I agree 100%. I have become much more "process" oriented than results oriented. I know if my process is followed, the edge of the system will take care of the results .

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  #265 (permalink)
 lancelottrader 
Legendary Market Wizard
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fsrcapital View Post
Just read the thread from start to finish. Crude Dude and Panda, thanks for the great commentary. The evolution from the beginning to the current was awesome to read. I wish the Crude Dude lots of success and I will be watching with great anticipation as your journey continues. Please consider adding to this thread as you move forward.

THANKS MUCH!!!

Thank you..I'm glad you have gotten something out of it.

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  #266 (permalink)
ESCL
Vancouver, Canada
 
 
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lancelottrader View Post
Awesome, glad to know there's people doing well with this sort of style. I think when you've seen price move after a news event, you get an idea of how fast it can move...and witness an extreme "Pace of tape". Of course, those news moves can be initially chaotic. I prefer to wait at least 3 to 5 minutes..sometimes more. But once an Event, whether it's news or just a huge orderflow move, creates momentum, then the moves become more directional and bigger both up and down at times..Then all my signals become more valid. My belief is that most of the time, price movement is very hard to predict and it's only for a few minutes where you know..with a high degree of probabilty, that it's going to move directionally for a some ticks.. And you must move fast without hesitation..And if you know the next immediate area of price congestion, that can be your initial target. If it breaks through that level, you have a potential runner on your hands. Here's another TF chart from a couple weeks back. I made a 100 ticks right at the close of the Equity session. If you look at the chart you will see a thick black spine that is on the outside of the white price line and the colored "Rainbow lines"..Sometimes if I feel the trade has more potential, I won't exit on the breach of the Stoploss dots. Instead I will keep manually moving my stop (On Ninja's Chart Trader) up, but keep it just outside the black spine. As you can see the trade runs up about 100 ticks before it breaks out of the Spine. This was the biggest Runner I've ever caught in my life . Remember, I'm a scalper by nature ..and I will exit with 4 ticks or so if I feel that's all it's going to do..and I seldom have an initial stop of more than 10 ticks . I don't know if it's psychological or what..but after entry I used to exclusively watch my P and L..not the chart and as soon as I was up a few ticks, I'd get anxious and exit as soon as possible. But with the Chart Trader, I watch the price on the chart and just keep dragging that stoploss bar and follow the price..I guess because I'm not so focused on the profit or loss, I just concentrate more on the chart. Anyhow, it's working and learning to stay in a winning trade longer is what took my trading to another level. I did ok scalping, but the hit rate has to be so high to really make money. Now, I lose a few small one's..win a few small ones..and then ride out "The Big Wave."


Is your trading based on your software or based on your own methods? If it's your own method, how long did it take you to be consistent?

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  #267 (permalink)
 vdersar1 
New York, NY
 
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Trading: TF
 
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Hey Lance,

Thanks for the excellent thread - you're definitely one of the greatest assets this forum has. Over the past week or so, I've read through your posts and watched the majority of your videos and I must say, it's exactly what I needed. Finding videos of successful traders trading live eluded me until I discovered your thread. (Youtube is filled with people advertising their wares and so forth)

The biggest lessons I've learned so far are three things:
(1) Buying on pullbacks instead of giving up ticks waiting for more confirmation
(2) Properly using support / resistance price levels from the trading day and previous days
(3) Place realistic targets and stops, trading only when there's sufficient momentum, and trading high probability setups when scalping.

I decided to put the knowledge I learned from this thread to use in the morning session today (9:30-12pm) and the results have been great. Using the lessons I learned from your videos, I've ended up +95 ticks trading TF this morning (5 winning trades & 1 loss). That said, I do know that an individual day's results suggest little unless compared to P/L over time.


Additionally, do you know if there is a free tool similar to the LogicalForex software you have? A system that draws relevant support / resistance areas would be great.

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  #268 (permalink)
 cory 
the coin hunter
virginia
 
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vdersar1 View Post
...
....A system that draws relevant support / resistance areas would be great.

try TSSupertrend, use EMA and multiple 2-5, play with multiple until you see something you like.

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  #269 (permalink)
trooper5010
Seattle, WA
 
 
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I have almost went through the whole thread and I think I am going to start trading soon, and SIMing to get my hands dirty and start feeling out the momentum times in the CL and NQ instruments, and of course, keeping y'all updated on futures.io (formerly BMT) (probably on this thread).

... I just had question, I know you've talked a lot about this on CL; do recommend any good days and times to trade on the NQ at this point in time when the momentum is flowing?

For me, it's really hard to see momentum flowing when I don't have that indicator to show the squares on the chart. That is going to be my biggest obstacle, and also I'll only be trading with $1000 real money in my account once I leave the SIM rankings. Once I can identify momentum consistently I think I'll have a lot more confidence in myself and using this system, which I am really looking forward to. I am a huge visual person and I really understood when you said you can't be looking at the PnL counter when coming in and out of trades. It's an art that you develop by looking at the graphs and "painting" the trades on the graphs.

I just wanted to say to both lancelottrader and PandaWarrior you guys are really putting some really great resources out there and that if people are interested in doing their due diligence and learning a set strategy, can learn quite a lot from both of you from reading the beginning of this thread to the present day now.

I've got a whole summer to do absolutely nothing (I am an engineering student on break) but to watch charts and see if I can find some real good consistencies; once finishing reading through this thread, I think I will be ready to start...

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  #270 (permalink)
 vdersar1 
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cory View Post
try TSSupertrend, use EMA and multiple 2-5, play with multiple until you see something you like.

Thanks for the suggestion. Interestingly enough, I've already downloaded and imported this indicator into NT. Additionally, I believe this indicator is more similar to the Rampage system Lance uses instead of the logicalforex system.

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  #271 (permalink)
 cory 
the coin hunter
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vdersar1 View Post
Thanks for the suggestion. Interestingly enough, I've already downloaded and imported this indicator into NT. Additionally, I believe this indicator is more similar to the Rampage system Lance uses instead of the logicalforex system.

somebody mention magnet lines could be swing high and low lines, they probl use that and some creative line drawing technique, look interesting.
ps. try this swinghlcolor

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 vdersar1 
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cory View Post
somebody mention magnet lines could be swing high and low lines, they probl use that and some creative line drawing technique, look interesting.

Definitely agree, though it seems as though Lance draws multiple support/resistance price levels manually too. It would be interesting to hear his thoughts on the effectiveness of the automated magnet lines and whether they're sufficiently significant to warrant further research.

Al Brook's book, 'Reading Price Charts Bar by Bar', has a chapter dedicated to magnets. Yet he writes the following in the introduction of the chapter, 'This chapter has very little to do with trading and is included for completeness because it illustrates some price action tendencies, but these tendencies are not reliable enough to be the basis for trading. If you want to learn how to make money, do not spend much time here and instead focus on the best trades in Chapter 15.' ( I hope it's ok to post book excerpts on the forum. If not, please let me know & I'll edit it out)

Very interesting indeed.

**
Just saw your edit. I'll take a look - many thanks.

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  #273 (permalink)
 lancelottrader 
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ESCL View Post
Is your trading based on your software or based on your own methods? If it's your own method, how long did it take you to be consistent?

Hi there. To answer your question, it's a little bit of both..but a much higher percentage would be due to my own methods.

I use the charts and indicators that I have...because I have used them for at least 4 years in a row..and they really help me process the overall "feel" of the market on any given day. I originally was trading forex and I was very much into momentum scalping. I got involved with the logical forex indicators and system because I felt that it was a great way to scalp 5 to 10 ticks on the euro/usd and euro/yen. But I ended up liking futures more (especially Cl) and I switched to that. I found it made more sense to go for bigger targets on CL, but I liked the way the Logical Forex charts helped me process the market, so I kept using them. However, I found I needed a different methodology for trading this instrument. So I experimented with a few things and got more into Price action setups. I found the rampage indicators were good on heavily trending days to ride out a bigger move.
My favorite feature of the Logical forex charts is that when extreme volatility shows up, the grid lines suddenly get wide and I have found this to be one of the best Real time momentum indicators out there. I also like Tick Strike which is a great audio and visual based Order flow indicator.

I should have become consistent a lot sooner, but I had issues such as having little impulse control, revenge trading, and taking multiple trades in a choppy environment. So, now that I have gotten those issues under control, things have improved immensely. It's one thing to have a good system...but quite another to have the discipline to follow it.

So, counting my forex years up until now, it's been about 7 years. But again, with better discipline and psychological control..it should have never taken this long. In fact, it's kind of embarrassing to admit that I have failed for so many years.

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 lancelottrader 
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trooper5010 View Post
I have almost went through the whole thread and I think I am going to start trading soon, and SIMing to get my hands dirty and start feeling out the momentum times in the CL and NQ instruments, and of course, keeping y'all updated on futures.io (formerly BMT) (probably on this thread).

... I just had question, I know you've talked a lot about this on CL; do recommend any good days and times to trade on the NQ at this point in time when the momentum is flowing?

For me, it's really hard to see momentum flowing when I don't have that indicator to show the squares on the chart. That is going to be my biggest obstacle, and also I'll only be trading with $1000 real money in my account once I leave the SIM rankings. Once I can identify momentum consistently I think I'll have a lot more confidence in myself and using this system, which I am really looking forward to. I am a huge visual person and I really understood when you said you can't be looking at the PnL counter when coming in and out of trades. It's an art that you develop by looking at the graphs and "painting" the trades on the graphs.

I just wanted to say to both lancelottrader and PandaWarrior you guys are really putting some really great resources out there and that if people are interested in doing their due diligence and learning a set strategy, can learn quite a lot from both of you from reading the beginning of this thread to the present day now.

I've got a whole summer to do absolutely nothing (I am an engineering student on break) but to watch charts and see if I can find some real good consistencies; once finishing reading through this thread, I think I will be ready to start...

Thank you, for the nice comments. I like to trade the first opening hour of a market. So for NQ, it would be between 9:30 am est to 10:30 am est. Usually I like to wait for at least 5 minutes to go by from the start of the open..so as not to get caught in a whipsaw. There are times however, when I entered before that. For CL, 9am est to 10am est is often good. Between 10 and 11, it can often get choppy. But on The Crude Oil inventory report day, I wait untill after 10:30 (when it comes out) to trade Cl. It will usually chop around until the report comes out.

My suggestion is to spend some time watching price move during the opening hours of the instruments you want to trade. You will eventually get a feel for when price is moving in a strong directional manner. Then it becomes a matter of timing in an entry and knowing where your most likely target should be.

Good luck with everything.

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 lancelottrader 
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vdersar1 View Post
Definitely agree, though it seems as though Lance draws multiple support/resistance price levels manually too. It would be interesting to hear his thoughts on the effectiveness of the automated magnet lines and whether they're sufficiently significant to warrant further research.

Al Brook's book, 'Reading Price Charts Bar by Bar', has a chapter dedicated to magnets. Yet he writes the following in the introduction of the chapter, 'This chapter has very little to do with trading and is included for completeness because it illustrates some price action tendencies, but these tendencies are not reliable enough to be the basis for trading. If you want to learn how to make money, do not spend much time here and instead focus on the best trades in Chapter 15.' ( I hope it's ok to post book excerpts on the forum. If not, please let me know & I'll edit it out)

Very interesting indeed.

**
Just saw your edit. I'll take a look - many thanks.

Hi there. I have noticed that Ninja has an indicator called Swing that draws a lot of these areas..but it doesn't really discriminate much and draws basically every price swing. The logical forex magnets tend to differ in length and color depending on how "strong" the area tends to be. And they differ when put on different time frames. So, the software will have different ones on a 5 minute or 30 minute chart compared to a 2 range.
I have found them to be extremely valuable when determining a target..or in timing in an entry. It will draw an area, that I may not notice without them..and when price hits it..you can see a 10 to 15 tick bounce. So, without these levels quickly mapped out and being drawn in real time, I would get stopped out much easier on many trades.

But, I do tend to analyze the magnets, before the session starts. If I see one was drawn but price only tested an area once..and didn't react much..I may draw a yellow colored line through it. I call this a speed bump..since I feel it probably won't stop price from getting through it. Maybe an area has had price fail at it 3 times. Then I would draw a red line through it so I know this is a more serious level that could possibly serve as a target..or a reversal area.

There are probably free ways to duplicate the magnets...but until someone figures out how to make the grid lines on a chart expand rapidly during times of volume and volatility (like my charts do) I will keep paying for them. The chart below shows what I am referring to.

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  #276 (permalink)
 engel532 
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First of all, I greatly appreciate all your effort and time in carrying out this very interesting thread. I have read and seen everything in it. The way you do trading looks more or less the way I've been doing my trading. Short Stop Loss and large profit.

I must confess that it has been hard so far way, but since I read your comments, as well as the other participants, I am convinced that it is possible to develop a successful methodology in Crude Oil. I added several of your things on my system, which has so far helped me to see the full potential of the CL (The 10 sec Volume chart and 2 range bar).

My system is supported by Market Profile to see the market context and trend. I have a chart of 30 min (Market Profile) and another of 5 min (current trend). until recently (before reading all your POST jajajaja ) I realized my entries with a chart 8 range that includes a footprint, which has helped me to get better entries on the market. But I had never thought that better than 8 bar Range, is a 2 Range bar. I'm still in the process of assimilating this type of chart.

I would like to propose something about increasing contracts. Something that is more or less what I get to do. you think to place two contracts? and when the price reaches 10 ticks, you move the stop to BE, you get a contract with the 10 Ticks and let run the other contract I think it's something possible, do not you think?
I keep in touch and hope that my performance improves with everything I have learned from you.

Excuse my bad English ....

Greetings,

Engel

"The discipline eventually expire Intelligence"
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 lancelottrader 
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engel532 View Post
First of all, I greatly appreciate all your effort and time in carrying out this very interesting thread. I have read and seen everything in it. The way you do trading looks more or less the way I've been doing my trading. Short Stop Loss and large profit.

I must confess that it has been hard so far way, but since I read your comments, as well as the other participants, I am convinced that it is possible to develop a successful methodology in Crude Oil. I added several of your things on my system, which has so far helped me to see the full potential of the CL (The 10 sec Volume chart and 2 range bar).

My system is supported by Market Profile to see the market context and trend. I have a chart of 30 min (Market Profile) and another of 5 min (current trend). until recently (before reading all your POST jajajaja ) I realized my entries with a chart 8 range that includes a footprint, which has helped me to get better entries on the market. But I had never thought that better than 8 bar Range, is a 2 Range bar. I'm still in the process of assimilating this type of chart.

I would like to propose something about increasing contracts. Something that is more or less what I get to do. you think to place two contracts? and when the price reaches 10 ticks, you move the stop to BE, you get a contract with the 10 Ticks and let run the other contract I think it's something possible, do not you think?
I keep in touch and hope that my performance improves with everything I have learned from you.

Excuse my bad English ....

Greetings,

Engel

Hi. Thank you for your comments.
I like my 2 range chart..because I can really "feel" the pulse of the market with it. There is a certain way CL moves when the momentum is very strong.. It would be hard to describe..unless you see it at the moments I am talking about. Those moments don't show up all the time, but when they do..I know I have a very, very good chance of being in a winning trade. The tough part for me is staying out..untill I see my perfect moment. I am getting better, but not as good as I will be. However, I have been hitting my weekly goal almost every week for many months.

However, I do not recommend basing your trading decisions off of a 2 range chart or you will end up getting into a lot of bad trades. It is a very jumpy, noisy chart. I use it to time in on certain patterns..but I definitely look at higher timeframes to see the overall context and for candlestick patterns too.

Your idea of 2 contracts and taking 1 off at 10 ticks is good and lots of traders do a similar strategy. I think it's easy for CL to move backwards 10 ticks a lot..so you will probably breakeven often on your second contract. But sometime it doesn't and if you catch a runner, then that will work great. I personally like to go all in and all out at one target. I try to hit a certain goal each week and as I stay consistent, I will slowly add contracts until I get up to 5..then hopefully 10.
Anyhow, I wish you all the best and I am glad you liked the thread.

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 lancelottrader 
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This is a recap video of today's CL session showing a good illustration of my method and a nice recovery from some early losses.


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  #279 (permalink)
 fsrcapital 
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lancelottrader View Post
This is a recap video of today's CL session showing a good illustration of my method and a nice recovery from some early losses.


Awesome stuff in that video. Thanks for posting!

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  #280 (permalink)
 lancelottrader 
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fsrcapital View Post
Awesome stuff in that video. Thanks for posting!

Thank you for your comment. I appreciate it.

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 lancelottrader 
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One thing I always try to do with my trading journal is to be objective in terms of why a week went well or bad. For example, my stats on ninja trader this week (on CL alone) show I had a 73% win rate ..with 24 winning trades and 8 losing trades. I made about 150 ticks.
This is better than my usual weekly average. One of the reasons this week went well is that Cl was moving ,many days ,with a lot of directional momentum. This is the type of week where more opportunities present themselves and it makes sense to take as many of them as possible. Looking back, I probably could have been even more aggressive and made over 200 ticks on a week like this one..but overall I am very satisfied with my performance.

For less experienced traders who may have enjoyed success this week, it can also give them unrealistic expectations. They may believe ..they finally figured this thing out since most any trending/pullback setup would have worked if they had any sense of timing an entry. However, those same setups on an exceedingly choppy week would not bring the same results..and these traders would be left pondering, "What happened? I thought I figured this s..t out?"

I know this because I have experienced the euphoria of weeks like this in the past...only to be brought back to reality by having a horrible week soon afterwards. The difference now is..I am learning to discipline myself to absolutely say no to every type of temptation or entry that does not meet my criteria. Everything must be there...no obvious support or resistance blocking my path to the target..strong volume/volatility and momentum..low risk/high reward entry..etc. I no longer let the emotion of "I'm missing a great move..Oh my god..I have to get in this trade" lead me into late and risky entries. I wait until the optimum moment (some traders don't believe that optimum moments exist..but I disagree)...and if it doesn't show up..I don't trade. I know I keep repeating this point...but it's been the most important part of my progress in the last few months. I actually went back to SIM for a while just to form new habits and behavior.

Since I mentioned SIM, there is a consensus that SIM trading is basically useless. I would agree if it is not used in a productive or goal oriented manner. It can become very easy to be on SIM..and casually jump into trades...sit back and relax and watch them hit the target. Many of these wins can be pure luck..and it can be easy to delude oneself into believing they know how to trade well. For SIM trading to be effective, it needs to be goal oriented. You need to have both a weekly minimum tick goal and a behavioral process oriented goal. For example, you could set a goal of maybe 40 to 50 ticks a week for a month...and until you can average that..you stay on SIM. This, in a way, gives you some "Skin in the game". Because if you know you can't go live until you achieve your minimum tick goal over a period of a few weeks, you will have some form of pressure on yourself. No Goal= No pressure. Also, you want to keep a journal and write whether or not you completely followed your system and all of it's rules. If you find yourself constantly taking impulse trades or revenge trades, you are not ready. That behavior will lose you a lot of money. Trust me on this ! So, again for SIM trading to be effective, it must be goal oriented..or else you are wasting your time. And I do believe, if you can't be profitable on SIM, you probably won't live.

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  #282 (permalink)
VinceHS
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Just finished reading and watching your videos. Great stuff and truly inspirational. Please continue posting videos whenever you have the time. I find them extremely helpful.

Thanks again. Cheers

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 lancelottrader 
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VinceHS View Post
Just finished reading and watching your videos. Great stuff and truly inspirational. Please continue posting videos whenever you have the time. I find them extremely helpful.

Thanks again. Cheers

Thank you. I should be posting a new video soon. It will be different than the usual ones. It will deal with one of the most important things that has helped me improve my trading.

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 lancelottrader 
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After now having achieved my minimum weekly goal of 60 ticks a week for many consecutive months, I am now in the process of adding more contracts. I realize that to many, 60 ticks a week seems like a very modest goal and I agree that is is. I have some weeks where I make well over 100 ticks..but almost always I can make 60 ticks in a week. Here's how it adds up.
60 ticks at 1 contract= $600 a week $2400 a month $28,800 a year.
60 ticks at 2 contracts= $1200 a week $4800 a month $57,600 a year
60 ticks at 5 contacts= $3000 a week $12000 a month $144,000 a year
60 ticks at 10 contracts=$6000 a week $24000 a month$288,000 a year
60 ticks at 20 contracts=$12000 a week$48000 a month$576,000 a year

So, I like 60 ticks because it's not that hard to hit..Often I hit it by Wednesday. For me, it is all about waiting. I ignore every move that shows up except the one's that meet my criteria 100%. In other words there is basically no obstacles in the way of my target..(No major or minor support or resistance ), it is during what I call a "Hotzone" time of day..there is plenty of strong order flow occurring..I am able to take a high probability/low risk entry. Everything must line up according to my observations of Cl price action over the last 5 or 6 years of daily viewing and trading. If I don't like anything during an entire session, I have no problem staying out. On a great day, I may take many trades.

I always think in both directions. Crude Oil can often look like it's in an extreme trend and then suddenly reverse 100 ticks or more in a manner of minutes. So every setup I consider, I always ask..Ok, now what is the setup in the opposite direction. So many great trades often are the most uncomfortable ones to take..because they go totally against the momentary bias.

Before entering I always run through a quick checklist of reasons not to take the trade. For several years now, I have known what a great setup looks like and have frequently won those trades easily. My problem was always taking mediocre setups and suffering lots of losses. That is no longer happening.

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  #285 (permalink)
 trvlntrdr 
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Lancelot, you should be proud of your success and I am very happy for you. It looks like you have been consistently profitable using basically the same system for over a year, from what I can tell. So that is truly an accomplishment!
Thanks again for the work you have put into this thread!
I have not achieved success in trading and am leaving trading for the time being. I am not sure if I will be a day trader again, it is hard to tell at this point.
I will check into futures.io (formerly BMT) every once in a while-- i wish you continued success!
T.

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 lancelottrader 
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trvlntrdr View Post
Lancelot, you should be proud of your success and I am very happy for you. It looks like you have been consistently profitable using basically the same system for over a year, from what I can tell. So that is truly an accomplishment!
Thanks again for the work you have put into this thread!
I have not achieved success in trading and am leaving trading for the time being. I am not sure if I will be a day trader again, it is hard to tell at this point.
I will check into futures.io (formerly BMT) every once in a while-- i wish you continued success!
T.

Thanks for the nice words. I don't really consider myself a success..yet. I think when I am trading at least 5 contracts and am able to build up my account and also fully support myself from trading, then I will be successful. But I am pleased with my results and I see no reason that I can't achieve my goals.

However, it has been almost seven years of trying and experimenting along with a lot of stress and lost money. I'm truly surprised I didn't quit several years ago.

Thanks again and good luck with your trading. If I can be of any help, let me know.

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 Tap In 
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Congratulations on your success. It is great to have an example to follow. Good luck with ramping up your size!

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 Dervakon 
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Hi,

I would like to say thank you for sharing your method on your thread. I'm really happy for you that you have found a system who works for you.

Do you use the same system since your last video or you have make some adjusment ?



Thanks

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 lancelottrader 
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Dervakon View Post
Hi,

I would like to say thank you for sharing your method on your thread. I'm really happy for you that you have found a system who works for you.

Do you use the same system since your last video or you have make some adjusment ?



Thanks

Hi. I haven't really changed things in the last 6 months or so. The only difference is I have been much stricter in adhering to my rules and I reject way more setups that don't meet the criteria 100%. The result is that I take far less losing trades and have much fewer losing days.

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 lancelottrader 
Legendary Market Wizard
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Here is today's session. I bumped up my contract size..so I was a little more hesitant and nervous than usual. However, because of the strong volume and momentum, it was still a decent day.


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  #291 (permalink)
 Tap In 
Bend, OR
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Congratulations on today's gains. Did you go from 1 contract to 5?

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 Dervakon 
Montreal, Quebec Canada
 
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Great Job,

You did great today even if you don,t have take all your setup. You're still consistent Nice work

Thank you for sharing and keep up the good work

When you want to succeed as bad as you want to breathe, then you will be successful
-Eric Thomas
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 lancelottrader 
Legendary Market Wizard
west palm beach florida usa
 
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Congratulations on today's gains. Did you go from 1 contract to 5?

No..I was trading 2 contracts on many days for the last several weeks. Some days only 1. I just figured to go ahead today and see what would happen. I'm going to try the rest of the week. I'm not too worried because I never take large stops..plus I usually can tell if it's going to be a choppy, lousy day.

If, however, I feel I am getting too nervous or it becomes too stressful, I will go back to 2.

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 Dervakon 
Montreal, Quebec Canada
 
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I saw that you use the Tick strike, and I make a try, I would like to know what is your setup for the CL

Thanks a lot

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-Eric Thomas
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 Sk8ter 
Beaverton, Canada
 
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@lancelottrader, congratulations on your success. You might've mentioned this in a previous video so sorry if it's repetitious, for your support/resistance lines that you draw, are you using the 5 min chart for those or do you go up to even higher timeframes? Thanks for your posts and videos.

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 lancelottrader 
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Dervakon View Post
I saw that you use the Tick strike, and I make a try, I would like to know what is your setup for the CL

Thanks a lot

Hi..yes I like Tick strike although I want to make it clear I am not trying to promote anyone's software or indicators on this thread. I just show it because it's something I use. As far as your question regarding my setup, I'm not sure what you mean exactly. I have the Tick strike subscription to Cl..so that's what you are seeing.

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 lancelottrader 
Legendary Market Wizard
west palm beach florida usa
 
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Sk8ter View Post
@lancelottrader, congratulations on your success. You might've mentioned this in a previous video so sorry if it's repetitious, for your support/resistance lines that you draw, are you using the 5 min chart for those or do you go up to even higher timeframes? Thanks for your posts and videos.

I use a variety of timeframes when mapping out my areas of support and resistance. I look at 30 min, 5 min, 1 min..and even the 2 range to find areas that aren't easily seen on higher timeframes. I then code them with colors according to where I feel I could get a strong reaction..or possibly just a bounce. Knowing these areas and how price reacts when it hits them can help time an entry. This way you won't trade into an area ..have price bounce 20 ticks against you..and stop you out.

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 lancelottrader 
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Kind of a tough day since price had moved down so much before the open.


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 lancelottrader 
Legendary Market Wizard
west palm beach florida usa
 
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Traded some post oil report price action...pretty ugly performance..but no blood was drawn.


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 Tap In 
Bend, OR
 
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How are your fills with 5 contracts?

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