Glad you like the thread. To be honest, you can get some moves at that time..but for the most part, you are looking at very slow price movement. Personally, I wouldn't bother with it untill at least 9 am cst. The ideal time is generally 10 am cst until about 1 pm cst. You'd probably see better moves at the 6 to 7 time from 6e or the Dax than from Cl .
Lance nice thread and charts. Is there any way that you might be able to post a template or a post on your indicators you have on screen shot with the settings. Trying to get over this hump I have been in for about 3 months. This may help with direction.
I trade CL from 7:30 AM CST to about 9 AM CST. I find this to be the best time for me. Usually can find at least one 50+ tick move in that time frame. not always but enough.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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Hi Hector. Just made this video and it will explain the indicators..and how I put together my system. I also talk about some of the Cl threads on Big Mike that I've been impressed with.
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Thank you very much @lancelottrader for this great and insightful video with well-explained approaches and setups, I really enjoyed it !
I really like your approach of 'mixing' various systems, and I'm definitely NOT going to 'flame' you for using some vendor's software since I'm also using vendor's software quite successfully myself with some modifications and additions to make it suitable according to my trading style.
So I'm really looking forward to see more of them...
Btw, are you satisfied with IW's Profit Manager tool ? I know it can handle a lot of things regarding risk and money management, but so far I think I often can handle this better manually.
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If you attach videos as mp4 or flv files directly on futures.io (formerly BMT), then people can play them in our player and they also show up on the forum homepage. There is also zero processing time/delay unlike YouTube.
Site Administrator Swing Trader Data Scientist & DevOps
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What exactly are you talking about? "Tend to get deleted" ??? Give me a specific example and I will give you a specific answer and make sure you fully understand so that you are not saying something like this or spreading inaccurate information on the forum.
Well, today for example I noticed a post was deleted I wrote yesterday on the Sceeto vendor thread. I simply asked if Sceeto works on Cl and not just the S&P and it was deleted. So I thought it would be prudent for me not to mention vendors products anymore. Didn't mean to cause a problem. Here is the link to the page. It's toward the bottom.
Site Administrator Swing Trader Data Scientist & DevOps
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Platform: My own custom solution
Trading: Emini Futures
Posts: 49,785 since Jun 2009
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The explanation was provided to everyone to read:
The first post was made by a vendor. Vendors are not permitted to promote their business within posts, which he did, so it was deleted. He was told previously about this.
The second post was you quoting the vendor post which was just deleted, so like it says, it was deleted too. If your post had not quoted his, it would not have been deleted.
I am in the process of making some changes to vendor rules on the forum. But for now, the rules that exist today are the same that have existed for over 3 years.
Hello Lancelott, I am new here. I know you have stated in your post that you are not interested in teaching. Would you mind though telling what indicators you use? Thanks.
Basically the indicator that draws the real time support and resistance areas is from Logical Forex..and the trailing stop dots are plotted by Rampage Trading. The rest is basically just from Ninja trader .
Yesterday in my video, I questioned the reasons for using a daily loss limit. Today I decided to keep trading beyond my usual loss limits. The results were very..very.. bad. The market conditions were terrible. Also I got thrown off my game because I had an issue with Ninja Trader that got resolved a few minutes into the 9 am est pit open. I traded worse than a Chimp today. In fact, that's insulting chimpanzees, for which I apologize. Really blew it today.
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Hey Lance, thanks for keeping up with this thread - always informative to hear about others' triumphs and struggles in this game. Just watched your video about daily loss limits and read this post. Its quite a conundrum huh? I have struggled with the personal waterfall effect for a long time - its an almost universal problem I'd imagine.
My take on it these days is this: A daily loss limit is a self-protection mechanism, similar to a stop loss on an individual trade. The specific amount you lose in a day has little to do with whether or not you should stop trading - the critical factor is how well you are centered emotionally and whether you are making patient, rational decisions. I find (and many others do as well) that if I am losing during the day, losing large amounts or losing on a string of trades, this indicates that I'm not really "ON" that day and also alerts me to the fact that I'm probably becoming more emotional because of the large loss I'm facing. But again, the critical thing is the psychological factors mentioned above.
The problem with this is that discerning whether or not you are "fit to trade" emotionally is a decision involving judgment. And it is precisely your judgment that is impaired when you are trading emotionally. However, I have found that, like it or not, this is the game we are playing. Emotional maturity and judgment are critical to trading success not just in execution decisions but in the rest of the game as well. Acknowledging this and attacking it head-on is the best approach in my opinion - by this I mean recognizing that the decision to continue trading after large or continuous losses for what it is, a judgment based on one's emotional state. We must confront this demon sooner or later in trading and so defining the challenge clearly (even though it does not give us a mechanical, mathematical answer) will give us the greatest advantage in the long run.
hope your trading is going well!
Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty. - Frank Herbert
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How do you determine when the big boys are getting in? How do you determine when price is trending or in a range? How do you determine if there is enough momentum to propel price significantly? Perhaps you have addressed this questions but i didnt see it.
thanks for making the video. It was of little interest or help to me, however. I might want to consider changing my experience level from intermediate to beginner because your video was way over my head. My type of trading is price action trading. I do not have any indicators on my chart except a 20 ema. I mainly just look for second entries shorts and longs, and look for two-legged moves. It is about as basic as you can get, I suppose. My instrument is the ES. I have traded stocks for about a year, and have only been trading the ES for about 6 mos. I practice on the simulator more than I live trade. Thanks for taking the time to make the video.
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Haven't posted on this thread in a while. I revamped my system and have been testing it for the last couple of months. Utilizing price action, 3 distinct setup types, and my knowledge of market conditions, I now go for 30 tick targets with a 10 tick stop loss on Cl. Some may think that is extremely difficult. I have been having great success with this. My ticks at the end of each week far surpass what i was doing before. I used to be very heavily involved in managing my trade..either manually or with automated trailing stops. I no longer do this. I usually will break myself even when I'm up 25 ticks..but that's about the extent of my involvement. I only take what I believe to be super high probability entries and ignore everything else.
I base my entries off of higher time frames..but time my entries off of small ones..in order to keep my stop at 10 ticks. That obviously takes a lot of precision..but it is giving me a nice 3:1 risk reward ratio. You can do well even with a 40% win rate and I'm doing better than that. Will give updates in the near future..but this is working well for me so far.
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Thanks for asking.. The system is going very well..in fact in the 5 years I've been trading, this is the best I have ever traded consistently. And it's obvious to me, that it is not just a fluke or temporary luck. I see no reason why it will not continue to work. I am going to describe some basics and a few details. It will not be overly complicated or technical. If anyone wants any specific questions answered , they are welcome to post them.
I use mainly 3 charts..A time chart (1 minute up to 30 minutes mainly for indentifying key levels) a 6 range and a 2 range chart. Obviously the first thing I do is identify all major and minor areas of Support and resistance, along with highs and lows of the previous days, etc. I color code the areas with lines I draw signifying where I consider some major price congestion to occur or areas I refer to as "speed bumps". I then map out a plan..utilizing 3 setup types and formulate several what if strategies before the 9am est Oil session opens.
The three setup types, basically, consist of 1. A reversal trade 2. A pullback/continuation trade on a strong fresh trend and 3. A breakout or what I call a "power Move". It's a combination of these steups at key price areas combined with the context of the market..or prevailing market conditions. I try as early in the session as possible to classify the particular market conditions of that day (Choppy. Chaotic volatilty, strongly trending..types of price swings etc.) Many traders seem to pick price areas and decide to go long or short at those areas..without fully taking into consideration the immediate market conditions. As I have mentioned in many of my earlier posts and videos, there are key times of the day when price tends to move stronger than others. You obviously don't want a slow or dead market when you are trading for 30 tick targets. And that is what I do..go for 30 tick targets with a 10 tick stoploss.
For my reversal setups, I have a few different types of entries. There is the double bottom or double top entries. Usually a 2nd fail during the session of a high or low of the day. Also, I have a single fail reversal..where price hits a level and quickly reverses. If I feel I am getting this type of setup (and Cl often changes direction extremely fast), I enter quickly so my stop is behind where the lowest or highest price swing just went. I don't wait for indicators or candle's closing to enter. It is purely a price action entry. On other reversal moves that I feel need more confirmation, I will wait for a 6 range candle close..or sometimes a 1 minute close... But..waiting for higher timeframes than those, can cause a late entry.. If I wait for the 6 range or 1 minute close, I generally like to wait for a pullback to my 10 ema...and also to an area where my 10 tick stop is in a place that makes sense. I also have a reversal setup that relies on a double fail of price to penetrate an area.
I will post at a later date, my other 2 setup details (The continuation trade and breakout trades), along with some rules I follow and trade management. Also I'll write a bit more how I take entries in order to keep a 10 tick stoploss.
To be continued..
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@lancelottrader, thanks for the update. I am looking forward to hearing more about your new system and seeing some of your charts. Hoping that I can learn something and apply to my trading to improve my results.
@lancelottrader Your way to trade sounds interesting, do you still trade TF? Waiting to hear more about your system and see some charts/videos as well. Thanks in advance.
Hi There.
I made this video back in September. It is extremely basic and simplistic, but it does a fairly good job of explaining my three setups I use. I have made a few changes since then such as using a 6 range time frame for timing entries instead of a 4 range. Also I expanded my average targets from 20 ticks to 30 ticks. It also doesn't show how I evaluate trends on higher time frames, but I think it will give you some good info.
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Things have continued to progress with the CL trading. Going to be adding some funds to my trading account soon so i can comfortably trade 5 contracts. I am happy, in many ways, that I put in so much screen time on CL for the last several years, that I was able to find Price action patterns that occur with a good degree of regularity. Often, those patterns can only be detected on smaller timeframes. These timeframes often generate signals that most Forum "experts" would classify as noise. Happy I never follow the crowd.
My setups often will get me in a trade way before any order flow shows any detectable changes..and sure enough..once the volume comes in, I'm already up close to 20 ticks.. Having targets of 20 to 30 ticks with a 10 to 12 tick stoploss has been working great for me. Of course you can't just take an entry with a random ten tick stop and expect not to get hit..you have to take an entry where your stop is at least behind a recent price swing or a price congestion area. Looked at Market profile for a while, but didn't find it to help me anywhere near as much as my own setups that I created from hours of watching CL on various timeframes. I apparently have a good mind for pattern recognition. Having said that, I have gotten some excellent benefits out of the 9G Dom tool..as far as seeing where large orders are etc...
Cl does a lot of tricky things..in fact it lures you in with these sudden spikes. It makes you think it's going to explode..then you jump in and it goes a quick 20 ticks against you..and possibly more. I saw that so many times, I have a setup I call "The explosive move..then quick reversal." I nail these all the time. It also loves fake breakouts. It loves to blast through a support or resistance level and overshoot it by about 10 or 12 ticks. Then it pauses and quickly reverses often for a big move. I call it, "The false break..with overshoot reversal." I use the DOM a bit to gauge my timing. I never learned these setups from anyone..all from observation. The people who get so wrapped up in waiting for the close of a 5 minute candle, would be shocked to see how much sooner I get into a trade than that. I don't need indicators to wait for or anything..and it enables me to have targets at least 2 to 3 times my stoploss.
Also, a huge help has been in my trade management..which is now virtually non existent. So many good setups were wasted on me thinking that the trade wasn't going to work or it wasn't going to hit my target..thus causing me to abort winning trades. Peeling off contracts and scaling out proved to be way inferior to all in and all out. Oil can move in such a serpentine way that you can be 15 ticks up and it can suddenly have you 8 ticks down..but then go on to hit your 30 tick target. I now hold my trades and don't interfere until the stop is hit or the target is reached. My target selection is very accurate to the point where many times the target will be hit and then the trade will totally reverse a few ticks afterwards. I will move the stop to breakeven only if it is up 25 ticks. Besides that, no interference. This has made a huge difference in my results.
Needless to say, I am finally seeing the progress I had hoped for all these years.
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I think many should read your post about trade management. Statistically, in most situations, it makes most sense to go all in/out but people try to experiment with it to add 'edge' to their trades-generally doesn't work that way. Do you use any order flow info to refine your entries? Or just pure price action?
Yes, in many cases I do use order flow when deciding to take a trade. I really like an indicator called Tick Strike..I think it works very well. Also I have volume charts that are set to show accumulation every 10 seconds and I watch Time and sales to some extent, that is filtered a particular way. The 9g dom is very good too. But first and foremost are the setup types that meet my parameters...but in the cases of breakouts or reversals at strong levels of support and resistance, order flow is definitely useful.
@lancelottrader, are you planning on posting any charts on your new method or videos like you did before? Found the videos quite useful in understanding your method. Thanks.
I may make another one soon..that really goes into more detail on my various setups..plus shows how to avoid choppy market conditions. The problem is that basically there isn't much interest in my videos or this thread in general. That makes me question whether it is worth my time to make any more videos. However, I do appreciate that you are one of the few that likes what I'm doing.
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Please continue the videos - they really are very informative. I just came across this thread recently and reviewed it several times now, material is excellent - thank you very much.
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I agree, I don't know how many fans you have but there a re a few of us that enjoy and learn from your posts. If you enjoy the thread, please continue! If it is a drag, well, then thanks for what you have done so far!
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Would you mind commenting on how your system/approach fared on Thurs?
I had a particularly hard day seeing any runners in CL.
Was wondering how you did - catch anything or no trades due to lack of sustained moves?
Actually, I didn't do particularly well yesterday. Some days the price action is not conducive to winning trades. I lost the first two trades ..so i was down 20 ticks by 9:30 est. At 9:40 I saw a double bottom reversal setup, took that and it won 30 ticks. So i made 10 ticks for the day. I didn't like the way price was moving and decided to not take anymore trades. This week has had several choppy days. Some weeks are like that. I just have learned to spot them and I try to minimize my losses and play defense.
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Thanks for the video Lance, much more beneficial for me than the usual video stuff of trade setups what we see otherwise...
"If you don't design your own life plan, chances are you'll fall into someone else's plan. And guess what they have planned for you? Not much." - Jim Rohn
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After a bit of a layoff and some time on Sim to refine my methods, I resumed live Trading 2 weeks ago. The goal has been to have a minimum of 60 ticks a week..I am only trading 1 contract for another month or so..but then will quickly be ramping back up to 2..then 5 by January or so. 60 ticks at 5 contracts is a nice bit of weekly profit. I easily surpassed that on Demo for several months.. Very pleased with the execution and fantastic service at Optimus Trading..as usual.
This pic shows live stats for last 2 weeks..I will be periodically posting stats on here to show progress. The system basically is this:
1. Do the research in am
2. Put together Battle plan of possible setups
3. Be tuned in to market conditions (Chop, strong trending etc.)
4. All trades generally win 2 to 3 times the stop loss.
5. before entering trade..look for any adverse conditions that might make it a lower probability entry.
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Eagle Eye Brian doesn't miss a thing. lol..
Hope you are doing great. Always love to read your thread, by the way.
Yes, I always try to get at least twice my stop for targets..although in the real world..doesn't always work out. Some of those trades may have failed twice at 17 ticks or so..and if I thought a strong reversal was imminent I may have just grabbed 10 instead on some. A couple of others I didn't like after taking lots of heat ..and got out with maybe 1 tick. The stats count the 1 tick as a win..but I figure it takes care of the commission. Most of my wins are about 20 ticks..and some are 30. However, there were some very strong runners I missed out on ..and should have stayed in.
I will update this every few weeks and continue to show the metrics.
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By the way, had I not traded with a hangover today and made a few stupid trades..my stats would have been even better. If we look at them up to yesterday's trades...my average win is 50% more than my average loss.
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Hello, lancelottrader. This is my very first post here at Big Mike's and I want to thank you for clarifying a lot of doubts I had. Your videos, comments and pictures have been VERY useful to me.
We don't necessarily know when and if we help someone with what we write. Well, you have helped me.
Again, thank you. Much continued success to you and all.
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Hi there. I am really happy if you found some useful info in my thread. That's the only reason I post on here. I spent so many years making terrible mistakes, and if I can help someone possibly avoid some of these errors and save themselves from losing as much money as I did .then I have done something worthwhile.
Thanks for your nice comment and feel free to ask any question you may have..either on here or through a PM.
Lance
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I like your idea of targeting 60 ticks a week. When I quit keeping score daily and targeted 50-100 ticks a week is when i started making money. The idea that I had to capture some large percentage of the daily move or had let runners run forever and a day just didn't really work to well for me.
What did work was taking good set ups, get some decent percentage of a leg or a move and be done for the day. The longer I traded the less money I made.
Funny thing is I've been trying for larger daily wins lately and my profitability has decreased on a weekly basis....
Good luck, looking forward to hearing more from you.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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Made this video of today's session. Along with a bit of analysis, it also shows my actual live entries taken from the recording of today..which is different than my previous videos.
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Since resuming live trading trading 5 weeks ago, I have continued to be profitable each week. However, because of a few breaches of my system rules, this week I only made 45 ticks..which is a bit short of my minimum 60 ticks a week goal.
Also, I found some of my entries to be a bit sloppy and due to the small stop loss I employ, the entries have to be 100% precise. Some of those entries occurred after a strong move was underway..and a small pullback took place. Now, my system has specific rules for pullback entries that involve waiting for a particular single fail..or double fail . Then a re-entry into the direction of the trend.
Instead I found myself overwhelmed by the emotion of "I'm missing this incredible move" and I entered before the specific pattern I look for. Needless to say, this resulted in a few losses I shouldn't have taken.
I also became aware that on Wednesdays, when the Oil inventory report comes out, i would take several losses..on average. One of the reasons is that the market can be quite choppy before 10:30 am est. That's probably because Big traders won't commit to a position until that report comes out. That lack of commitment causes the market to not move in a directional manner. Now this isn't always true, but often is. So my plan this week was to stay out until after 10:30. Now the market can be extremely volatile and bouncy for close to 20 or 30 minutes after the report. A 10 tick stop is almost impossible to use under those conditions.
So I decided I would only allow 1 loss on Wednesday..instead of the multiple losses I often take on that day. Well, I broke the first rule and traded before 10:30 am..and lost 10 ticks. Then when the report came out, I went in too soon and got hit with a nasty bounce. ..lost another 10 ticks. Obviously, had I followed my new "only one loss allowed rule"..I would have quit right then. I did initially switch to SIM..but then saw something that looked so obvious and went in. I realized that the post oil report conditions require a bigger stop..so I increased stop loss to 20 ticks. I lost that one too. Now I was 40 ticks down on day. Started getting that terrible adrenalinized feeling I used to get in the past..that caused me so many problems.
Usually my max drawdown is 40 ticks for the day..but I decided to trade again...Boom..another loss. Now 50 ticks down. Finally , I got out of the trading room for a bit. Could feel my heart beating fast..blood pressure up..the whole bit. I composed myself, came back in..saw one of my textbook setups. I noticed the market conditions had calmed down..I had calmed down..Took the trade and won back 30 ticks. I decided to quit there at 20 ticks down for the day.
What I learned was that even after months of successful SIM trading..and 4 weeks of winning over 60 ticks a week live..one can never get too confidant. You can't for one second abandon your rules or fail to have discipline. You will get beat up..no matter how good you are.
Anyhow, looking forward to this upcoming trading week..and winning the battle against the Market..and Myself.
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First I need to change the name of this thread..or start a new one. I don't trade Tf anymore and my strategy isn't always about catching runners.
In the last few weeks, I have made many great trade entries..been up quite a bit .just to see them reverse..and break even..etc. In my journal I also keep records of how far each trade initially gets..and overwhelming almost all my entries get to 10 ticks. This is due to my ability to perceive short term momentum..and through my thorough mapping of all small pockets of support and resistance.
So today, I went back to scalping..except using the new techniques I've learned. The important thing is to wait until some sort of definite move or momentum has shown up. It doesn't matter if I catch the beginning of the move or not. All I care about is where the next mapped out price congestion area is. Then finessing the entry..usually a shallow pullback of some sort. Anyhow, today I made over 80 ticks..just from 10 tick scalps. There were a few I could have held for 20 or more..but I just wanted to try this technique I have been practicing on paper for a while.
I actually enjoyed the fast wins..much more than sitting stressfully in some trade as it oscillates back and forth.
I will be doing more of this the next few weeks. I have seldom made 80 ticks in a day with my other system..
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My last entry was about how I scalped 80 ticks last Friday..10 ticks at a time. Those who have followed my thread probably recall me mentioning my system tries to win 2 to 3 times what it loses..and I usually keep my stops at 10.
So, now it seems I completely changed things by doing 10 tick scalps...Well...yes and no.
The better I get as a Trader, the more I realize there are no absolutes..besides having a set of rules in place to control risk. When we try to fit a rigid system around a market that can behave different on different days, the lack of flexibility can be restricting and counterproductive. Also, if someone has a particular strength as a Trader, one should put that strength to good use.
I happen to be very good at understanding CL price action..and how it behaves during different market condition. This comes from watching it over 5 hours a day for close to 6 years straight.
I also know my weaknesses..which is that I tend to get anxious in a trade that loses momemtum and wavers. For example..1 minute I'm up 10 ticks and the next minute I'm down 7..and the longer I'm in a trade like that..the more anxious and impatient I get. Sometimes those trades win..sometimes they don't. I just don't like them.
The more I learned about price action, the more I understood how price forms these congestion areas..which my software conveniently draws out. These can also be considered minor areas of support and resistance. Depending how strong a move is.. price will do one of three things.
1. It will fail at the price congestion level and reverse.
2. It will bounce back a few ticks..then resume it's direction.
3. It will smash through the level and go to the next level.
The more I have watched price during different levels of orderflow and momentum..the more I can accurately predict how it will react through those areas. My problem is often I am up 15 ticks or so..I can tell the orderflow is weak..and I know I should just take the 15 ticks. But because my system calls for maybe a 20 or 30 tick target..I will sit there sometimes..and let the trade go back to even..or worse lose 10 ticks. Since I take an all in/all out approach (I tend to make more money that way) I don't peel off half my position when I'm a bit up.
Since I generally know..in the short term that price will be drawn to these next areas of congestion..I know at least where a very high probability target is. The good news is that I don't have to catch a move at the very beginning..before I know the direction or strength. I can wait till the market tips it's hand and reveals it's intention..and then, if possible time in an entry where at least 10 ticks are available before it hits the congestion/target area. This removes much of the speculation involved. Now if, while I'm in the trade..through my Tick Strike or other order flow tools show strength is building up..I can choose to hold for a much bigger target.
So the idea is..not just holding and hoping it hits some target..but tuning in to the immediate conditions of that trade and deciding to hold or not. Again this is not an easy thing to do. You have to be able to discern between random noise..and those few minutes where a definitive move is underway. If I miss the beginning, I will settle for taking chunks out of that move. So between nailing a few runners, I can also scalp, like a sniper, 10 tick pops here and there.
Anyhow, I feel confidant that my original weekly goal of 60 ticks is way too small. I'm thinking easily over 100 ticks a week will be possible.
We shall see.
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Thought it was time for a name change on this thread..It's more appropriate since I trade mostly Crude oil.
Having said that, I have been practicing NQ trading on SIM. I seem to do quite well on volatile days with lots of strong up and down moves.
Today..made about 85 ticks on NQ. A lot of these were 20 tick moves and some were 30 and some 10 . My 2 range chart I use for oil in conjunction with some higher time frames work well on NQ. Again, for me I need those volatile days where the swings move quickly in one direction.
Today..CL didn't move as well initially as some days and I took a few trades that didn't work out..but made up for it later on.
Ideally, I would like to gain more proficiency in NQ..and have the choice to trade live on that eventually. I feel if it were moving well on a day where CL wasn't , it would increase my options. It's good to be able to cherry pick an instrument that is moving great on a particular day..or even for a particular moment. I will monitor my SIM results on NQ, while I trade live with CL.
One area that has perplexed me with my trading is the concept of Max daily drawdown. I have had days where I am 40 to 50 ticks down..then find some great setups and get back to at least even. Then I had a day a while back where I went into 'Tillt" mode and just kept going. Finally pulled the plug at 100 ticks down. So, I have decided my max losing day is going to be 40 ticks down. That is generally 4 consecutive 10 tick stop outs. I figure if that happens, either the market is off..or I'm off...and it's time to call it a day.
In the past I would tell myself..ok..I'm just going to trade Sim(after hitting daily drawdown.) Then some great looking setup shows up and I find myself switching to my live account. But now, until further notice, Max daily drawdown is going to be 40 ticks.
Here are a few of the NQ trades from today. You can see it's similar to my price action setups on Cl.
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After a rather dicey start..the momentum I look for showed up, especially later in the session. Unreal to see how far down Oil keeps going. I wasn't really watching it that closely later in the afternoon or could have possibly caught more winners. I'm happy with the 70 tick day, though. here's a few of the trades I took.
Failure is not an option
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Made a video of my Cl trades today. These are from my actual live recording while trading. This is the type of day where one has to be nimble or it's easy to miss some good moves.
Failure is not an option
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I think one main reason this thread deoesn't seem to get much response is that it doesn't have the typical themes you see on most trading forums. I think people are more drawn to threads about struggling SIM traders trying to test and experiment with various strategies and systems. These threads have, I suppose a more dramatic element to them. You know, 'The Endless Quest for the Holy grail" thing. Apparently people, as a whole don't care to view videos of actual live trades being taken in real time and having setups explained in that moment.
Also, my system is fairly simplistic and that doesn't apparently resonate well with people. There isn't talk of VWAPs and balance..or the latest indicator. People want to be able to have a system that says..when my indicators does this or this line crosses that..enter a trade. Unfortunately, there is no such system. You have to understand the context in which those systems work and learn to recognize when those conditions occur.
Now, to those individuals that do view this thread consistently, I only do this for you. Since there is little discussion from others or participation..the only thing I can get out of posting here is that I write possibly one thing..that helps someone improve. If I have helped anyone..even in a small way..I am happy. I, unfortunately..like so many others went through years of failure and lost a lot of money. I am not saying I am wildly successful now. Far from it..but damn..There is definitely a light at the end of the Tunnel.
I stopped losing money, consistently a while back..which was great!! Now I am consistently profitable..not in a big way..but enough to convince me that I will eventually be able to make a living from this. My Dream was always to be able to, regardless what happens in the world..that with my little computers..I can not only survive..but thrive. I think this will soon be a reality.
Another guy on here that I think has what it takes to make a good living from this..is Brian (AKA Panda Warrior). I can tell by his motivation and thought processes..trading style.. that he is on the right track. I wish you all the best, Brian. I am sure you have struggled like I have with this crazy endeavor,..but you never gave up. Good for you.
Failure is not an option
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Volatile and dangerous market yesterday. I just skipped trading it.. On the other note will review your system now, just found that thread. Did you change it much from the original one from 2011?
I didn't see your post because you mentioned me, I saw it because I read the thread!....keep it up...I enjoy the written word....just an aside, I rarely watch people's videos. I read MUCH faster than people talk. Therefore I tend to scan stuff and if I like what I see, I'll slow down and read it....but I can't do that with video so I just skip it altogether. Most videos are too long anyway. I like 2-3 minute vids...easy to watch and move on when I'm trying to scan a bunch of different threads.
Thanks for the kind words....
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Yes, I understand what you mean about the videos. I think i made this last one, because it really was able to capture CL on a day where it was moving from high order flow..and I was pointing out that even though my entries were a bit late on some trades..the momentum was able to carry them through.
I may take your advice and do really short ones instead. 10 to 15 minutes is a pretty big commitment of time and attention for someone.
Failure is not an option
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I dont know if you are trading today, but CL is very choppy,dont think is good at all for your system, small stops getting killed. I am trading sim today, trying to count waves up and down and its working pretty good.
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Good Observation..Very difficult day..lots of false moves. Very hard to determine any true direction. I made a 20 tick win in the first few minutes of the open. Then gave it back by losing the next two in a row. So, I practiced some NQ scalps on SIM for a bit. Managed to catch a quick 20 tick move on CL when it made a fast, strong move around 10:40 ish est. That's when I called it a day. There are days when you have to just accept the conditions aren't favorable and either sit on the sidelines or trade an instrument that is moving well.
Update: Funny as I was writing this (a little after 12 pm)..I heard my cl tick strike going off very strongly. I just managed to catch 30 ticks on the strong move breaking through 83.00
The strange thing about CL lately is that it's making very strong moves after 12 pm..and in the past it was mostly pretty slow after that time.
I watched some of your videos, you enter the trades many times on the crossing of that "Black spine" from the Logical forex. What is the closest MA to that black spine? I want to try and substitute it.
That's a good question..It's a fairly dynamic indicator that responds to price in various conditions. If you take a 2 range chart..a 75 period EMA comes pretty close.
Failure is not an option
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After reviewing many months of trading data, it appears Wednesday, the day the Oil inventory report comes out, is when I most likely have a bad day. I have hit my max drawdown more times on this day than any other day.
It's also a day, when due to the high volume, you can get some tremendous runners..in both directions often. Today was a day like that.
Before the report comes out, some days can be choppy since many institutional traders wait for the numbers before committing to a big position. Some days you get decent moves ahead of it, but not always.
I seem to do better if I wait a half hour after the report to trade. The early swings, when it first comes out, can be quite unpredictable and a small stop is virtually guaranteed to get hit.
In order to reduce my risk and stop having Wednesdays that literally ruin my week, I am going to apply the following rule: I will only allow a max drawdown of 20 ticks total on this day..instead of the 40 tick drawdown on other days. This can be two consecutive losers of 10 ticks..or 1 loser of 20 ticks. Again the post oil report moves, if timed properly, can be extremely rewarding. Today, after 11..it moved up over 100 ticks and then quickly reversed over 130 ticks. However, trying to trade it with close to a 10 tick stop would have been extremely difficult to time. I think my best results will come from waiting untill after 11, then taking a good entry with a 20 tick stop. If I lose I'm done for the day with no real bad losing day. If I win, I will keep going and try to get the most out of the high volume moves.
Because of the high frequency of losing days on Wednesday, this will have to be my new rule.
Failure is not an option
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Good job reviewing the data
If you don't already, you might consider using a product called TraderVue. A lot of people on futures.io (formerly BMT) use it, there is a discount for Elite Members. It can help you break all this data down into meaningful bits.
I agree with you in terms of limiting risk...BUT inventory is a great way to make fast money....you just have to be on the right side of the move....and here is an interesting tidbit....the movers are already positioned for the move...well in advance....they know whats coming more or less long before we do....and so you will often see a head fake in one direction prior to the move in the opposite direction.
Ok so keep that in mind...
Now for the good part....the set up you would ordinarily take usually appears 15-45 minutes ahead of the number....its not always a small stop as you know....and 20 can sometimes be inside the liquidity vacuum and thus gets filled and yet not have the price printed on the screen....its happened to me a couple of times although not recently.
So this means you can look for your entry well before the number and just hold through it....keep in mind there's usually some violence in the first couple seconds but if you can withstand that, the money is there....
Today was a good example at least for me of a 50/50 set up....so I traded it small but I was uncertain because not all my references were lined up like I want to see them...but the near term trend was down and so watching the dom, I just clicked in....and it was all good from there.....
If this isn't something you feel you can do or even think is prudent, then by all means don't...but the method is there if you want to....
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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Thanks for that..Some great points. I highly value your opinion and suggestions.
I do think you have to have some big Cajones and a lot of testosterone to enter before the numbers come out.
I have seen some violent surprises. I tried it once and it moved 60 ticks against me in close to five seconds...and my stop got hit with massive slippage. Lately though, it hasn't done stuff like that. I think the overwhelming downward momentum has blunted the recent oil report reactions.
I find one of the best setups is when it moves up strongly 100 ticks or so..hits a resistance level and then starts reversing. (That happened today after the initial move down) From what I have seen..many, many times is that the reversal moves down pretty much as strong as the move up..I think all the stops from all the people that went long at various levels start getting hit and it creates this snowball effect.
Sometimes I have done well.entering a few minutes after the numbers..since I am pretty good with fast, volatile moves..but often I have lost many trades too early as well.
For me the best bet is 20 to 30 minutes after the announcement when the price is less "bouncy". I have been trading the inventory for several years..but Wednesday has been my most consistent losing day.
Failure is not an option
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That looks good..I only use the 2 range to time some of my entries..I always look at bigger timeframes as well. That chart looks similar to the ones I have with the Rampage indicators.
Perhaps because I was battling a bad cold, I found this week in Cl to be somewhat challenging. I did end up getting past my minimum 60 tick weekly goal, but it wasn't easy.
I'm sure a lot of people will read this and scoff at the idea of only 60 ticks for the week. We've all seen a few Cl threads where people look like they are making 100's of ticks a week. More power to them. I can assure you, if I was averaging 200 ticks a week..I would be making close to a Million dollars a year. All you have to do is build up your account..and keep leveraging. Imagine just 10 contracts at 200 ticks a week...That's $20,000 a week..about $80,000 a month..or $960,000 a year. Now imagine that at 20 lots.
So, anyhow, I have been trying to prove on 1 contract that I can make at least 60 ticks a week live for at least 3 months straight. I have found that this is an attainable goal right now for me. I have a statistical 'Batting average" that shows I am at this level. I probably will keep improving and be able to make more in the future. But the important thing is I have clearly defined my risk . The worst I generally will lose on a trade is between 10 to 15 ticks. There are exceptions on Oil report day where I might take a 20 tick loss, but generally 15 is max and 10 to 12 is the usual. Wins average between 20 to 30 ticks, but there are times when I catch a 50 to 60 tick strong momentum move. Again, I find lots of 20 to 30 tick opportunities and since these for my style of trading have a high probability, I target these moves.
So, the next step is to trade 2 contracts and achieve the same 60 ticks for a couple of months. Then I will go to 5 contracts. At 60 ticks a week, that is about $12,000 a month. After several months of that, the plan would be to build up my account to comfortably trade 10 contracts. That's $24,000.00 a month.
This to me is an attainable goal. So, I don't care about finding some magic system or honing myself to make 100's of ticks a week..since I can make all I need from building my account up and leveraging contracts. So, while 60 ticks a week seems paltry to some..it is all I need.
I have been getting good results on my NQ Sim trading. My chart setups work very well on it and my Tick strike indicator is a huge help. I made over a 100 ticks on NQ this week. Again, it was SIM, but I am confident I will be able to incorporate it into my live trading eventually. The benefit of course is that I will have a choice of trading, at any given moment, the best moving instrument between CL and NQ.
Where I have really improved as a Trader is in my ability to read the prevailing market conditions. I can recognize early in a session if the moves are going to be choppy or chaotic. There are days..or at least part of days where virtually every setup will fail because of the type of day. On the other hand there are days where several opportunities will present themselves. Those are the days you have to keep trading and take advantage of those conditions.
Failure is not an option
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Here is a tool I've had for a few years that I've been testing out again recently. Thinking of using it under certain conditions to automate my trade management. I feel it could help me stay in some moves longer and reduce some psychological hurdles. Instead of trailing with a fixed tick amount like ATM, it can be programmed to trail to a variety of moving averages...
Failure is not an option
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Love the thread Lancelott, I have a very similar methodology to you, born out of my own observations too (thousands of hours watching). It's good to know I'm not crazy.
Really liked the ideas in this Youtube video, is the indicator available freely online?
Also with regards to the post about people "scoffing" at 60 ticks per week, nobody would, that's fantastic results and no doubt they will even increase with time, why stop at 5 contracts?
Yes..there's nothing like watching price action on an instrument through countless hours of screentime. If you have the type of brain that has a highly efficient pattern recognition ability, you will see market events that repeat themselves over and over. I will watch sometimes as price hits these minor areas of support and resistance..and I can predict almost to the tick..how far it will bounce. Then at other times. I can tell from how fast and strong price is moving that it will just smash right through these areas.
I'm glad you can relate to what I am doing. The indicator that does the auto trail is something I bought 2 years ago from a site called Indicator Warehouse. I haven't checked to see if they still offer it. If it is free somewhere, I don't know about it. For some reason, I rarely ever used it. I think the best time to activate it is when I am up 20 ticks or so in a trade and due to the order flow and volatilty I'm seeing, I decide to let the trade be a runner. So, I could set a large target and decide that either the target gets hit or it hits the trail.
And as far as 5 contracts go, I didn't say I would stop there. I just would stay there until I built my account up enough to safely trade 10...and so on... Hopefully I'll get there in the not so distant future.
Failure is not an option
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Of your ongoing progress. I think you have the right attitude Lancelottrader, to keep your trading (and losses) under control. I doubt if anyone could criticize your plan to have achievable targets, to avoid the gambler mentality.
I want to make a post for those less experienced traders thinking about how many contracts they could trade.
There are 2 main issues that affect this, even assuming that one has an unlimited funds in the trading account.
1) Mack, of PATS, makes a good point that even when you are successful the stress of trading more contracts increases with each contract, to the point where you just cant add any more and still keep your wits about you.
2) Depending on the instrument and time frame, there are only so many contracts one can trade before one affects the order flow, which then changes your trading parameters. the most successful trader I ever met, or for that matter, know of, trades oil on a short time frame and would not trade more than 10 contracts because of this. I have read the ES number is more like 50 on the short term. Of course if you are trading that many contracts you are really an institutional trader and are probably going to use more sophisticated entry and exit tools than most of us need or have access to.
So people shouldn't get caught up with the idea of just multiplying contracts = more money.
Lancelot is right to keep the greed monster under control.
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Very good points..I remember a few years back, trading forex, I managed to get up to 10 standard lots ($100 a pip)and it really affected my nerves. I obviously wasn't ready mentally..or skill wise..either. My heart would race when i was in a trade and my face would turn all red. I bet if I had taken my blood pressure at some of those moments..the readings would have been pathologically high.
That is a terrible state to make trading decisions under. I had some horrible losing days back then...with no max daily drawdown limits. I won't even get into how much money I lost because I would be embarrassed to admit it.
This is one of the reasons I have been so cautious now. I don't want to hurt my health..or my trading account. So I am slowly ramping things up and only trading 1 contract until I am convinced I can achieve certain goals for several months in a row. Then I will go to 2 and stay there until I am psychologically ready to trade more.
People that have never gotten past SIM have no idea the stress involved in trading large contract size, especially if you are not ready. I wish I could go back and undo so many of the foolish trading mistakes I made.
Anyhow, I appreciate your comments and I agree with you.
By the way, if you have any good tips from your friend that Trades CL successfully, I am always open to good ideas.
Lance
Failure is not an option
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A couple of lessons learned today. Never get too attached to assumptions about where price has to go. Before 10 am price had moved down strongly as was only about 20 ticks from it's low of the day. I naturally assumed, since I didn't see much in the way of support blocking it, that price would follow through to at least the low of the day. It didn't. It reversed after hitting the 80.50 level. Then while reversing, price came within about 20 ticks of the high of the day..in it's first major leg up. I anticipated a possible pullback..but my mind was fixed on the idea that it would try to hit the high of the day. Instead, it reversed 70 ticks..of which I caught 30. Then it reversed again and got up to 81.50, but again never made it up to 81.66.
This shows the importance of not predicting too heavily that price will go to certain levels..and just trading what is happening in the moment.
Another mistake I made was relying a bit too much on what my 5 minute chart was telling me. Normally, besides looking at it first thing in the morning for some directional bias..it's not a big part of my system. But having read some CL threads lately where some traders seem to get good results trading off a 5 minute chart, I thought I would pay more attention to it. So when the first reversal gave me a signal on my 6 range and 2 range chart, I hesitated. I decided to get "additional confirmation" from my 5 minute chart. Waiting for that caused me to too miss over 30 ticks of the initial push. I did get a minor pullback and got 20 ticks.
I realize my system works so well because I get into trades much sooner than if I wait for 5 minute candles. So in fact, my risk is often less because my stop doesn't hit by the inevitable pullback a late entry will give. Now for people who have 20 to 40 tick stops..they don't have to be as meticulous with their entries..so I suppose the 5 minute candle works well for them. But when you have a system that is based on average trades winning
two to three times what they risk, it becomes much harder to trade a fast moving instrument like CL with slow Candle charts.
Anyhow, decent day..but it could have been much better if I hadn't experimented.
Failure is not an option
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I make this mistake all the time. I am often right about where it will likely go but if i am wrong and hold on too long the greater loss makes it wipe out the advantage of being right usually. I belive that taking an early loss helps you get out of your bias and equally weigh the two directions. on the other hand i still get mad about getting stopped out to the tick and then price reversing. i have let go of that frustration for the greater plan.
I was at a conference where 2 experienced presenters mentioned their failure to stop out and re-evaluate their bias.
One said he lost $250,000 in one position in one week and the other said he had him beat --lost over $800,000 in a short time the same way--being pigheaded. i found that sobering, that traders so experienced could do that and it means no matter how good you get you can never lose sight of the fact, that you could be wrong!
Of course sometimes we read about traders bringing down a bank the same way.
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Just a suggestion regarding projected top/bottom of the intraday move. CL likes 76.4% fib retracements, countless times on different times frames it will stop around that number +- few ticks. Yesterday high 80.67 was 76.4% fib of the previous move up, and the intraday 80.44 was 76.4% of the day high plus few ticks(the exact figure should have been 80.39).
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Here is a recap video of today's trades. As I mentioned in a previous post, due to my tendency to take several losses on Oil report day, I have instituted a new rule of only allowing a 20 tick max drawdown on this day. The other day's are allowed a 40 tick max drawdown.
Failure is not an option
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I do think this type of trading requires a type of personality or brain. Perhaps one very sensitive to detail and highly focused.
I can completely relate to watching price and predicting the small fluctuations accurately - the issue is choosing when it's a high probability situation with a decent risk:reward potential. I mainly focus on telling "how fast and strong price is moving" and then it becomes predictable when price will push past resistance/support and hit peoples stop orders for some temporary momentum. After this initial phase of predictable temporary momentum I become very uncomfortable as I now don't have a basis to be in, so I either hold hoping for a trend or I exit immediately at the first sign of weakness - i noticed you had issues with this earlier in your thread.
I imagine I'd use the auto-trail similarly, only in particular scenarios when everything lines up for a large momentum move. I prefer to actively manage my trades, I trust my intuition to manage it effectively, though my trade analysis may find this to be limiting my profitability, it sort of gives me a feeling of freedom which reduces stress upon entering -- knowing I can exit immediately if I want.
I think setting the runners and "large targets"/auto-trail is something for when it's a successful day and maybe just risk a few ticks gains on having a lucky day
Have you considered this, I thought it might compliment your trading style:
If you've had a good day, say +30 ticks profit. You're trading well, your decisions are good. Perhaps on the next trade, you add size as it wins and try to have a huge leveraged winner, of course never risking more than the normal initial risk on one contract.
I.e. At +20 ticks, add another contract, move stop up, same at +35 ticks. Now let 3 contracts run to auto-trail.
Of course, mostly this will breakeven or at worst it's a losing trade and you end the day with +20 ticks or so. But occasionally this could be a huge winner, e.g. 95+ ticks on one trade.
I call it aggressive sizing (opposite of regressive sizing when losing) and it's an idea I'm trying to time with higher time frames (i.e. we've hit a 60-minute support... wait for momentum on low time frame and then try to leverage the holding)
Of course its just an idea/suggestion and you might prefer to keep it simple and go for consistency.
Anyway, I've loved your ideas in this thread, keep it up, videos are cool with the American hollywood accent.
Stay G'
Turismo
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Thanks again to your contributions on this thread. Your technique of evaluating "How fast and strong is price moving" is something I definitely look for as well..which is why I have gravitated towards the chart setups I use. Slow moving candle/time charts don't work as well for me..except for evaluating trends etc.
The auto trail is something I rarely use because like you, I prefer to manage my own trades. If I do use it, it's when I'm already up over 20 ticks..have broken even..and I detect a tremendous amount of volume and momentum. Even then I will probably have a target and the trade becomes a matter of hitting the target or getting trailed out. Today, on NQ, I turned it on after being up over 20 ticks and caught a big winner. In fact, I did much better on NQ today than CL.
I tried to get 30 ticks(on CL) on a couple of moves and they only reached about 20 before reversing and I ended up scratching them. Plus I lost a few trades early on. So I decided to pull out another weapon..my 10 tick surgical scalping method. Basically I wait untill some decent order flow shows up and find these 10 tick areas that have no price congestion..and time in. The key is finding areas or grids..where nothing blocks the flow of price. My software helps identify those areas. and then it becomes a matter of processing the immediate volatility and timing the entry. I managed to scalp back about four 10 tick winners in a row..so finished up just a little better than breakeven on Cl. Did great on the SIM NQ trades. Really starting to get a feel for it.
Your idea on agressive position sizing is a good plan and would probably work well for many traders. I have used some techniques like that in the past.. but have had a few issues. This isn't a reflection of the strategy but more an issue with my psychology and impulsiveness. Without going into a lot of detail, when I become too flexible with the amount of contracts I trade, I seem to get into trouble.
My system has evolved from years of evaluating my trading data and evaluating my own unique psychological strengths and weaknesses. I may have some form ADHD as well, which means if I don't have a strict set of rules and a precise system..I can veer off the path and find myself doing incredibly stupid things. After much statistical analysis of myself and my trading, I have found I am better off sticking to one type of contract size for the day or for however long I plan to stay at a particular size. In other words, when i go to 2 contracts in a few weeks, I will only trade that size untill I feel ready to move up. Then when I get to the next size I will stay there untill again I am ready to move up. Plus, I have found, even with multiple contracts, that going all in/all out as opposed to scaling in and out works better for me.
What I am doing now is establishing positive expectancy by proving for several months in a row that I can achieve a certain amount of Tick goals each week. This helps me psychologically because I have a pretty good idea of my skill level and what to expect. So the idea is to adjust mentally to higher contract sizes and just keep repeating the formula. It's like Bodybuilding or weightlifting..You start with a certain weight and progress as the body adapts and grows stronger. Try to go from benching 200 to 300 too fast as a novice..and you can get injured. As you can see from this old pic, I was into the weights a bit...lol.
Failure is not an option
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Love this idea, I also do this but I never quantified it to mean "areas without price congestion" but that's exactly what I'm looking for. These are my favourite types of trades as they occur frequently.
This is where it gets weird because I also think I have some ford of ADHD as well, and have the same issues with needing very strict rules. In some ways I think ADHD gives me an advantage, I can be hyper-focused and very attentative to details if something interests me, I'm also extremely inquisitive! I'm at this stage now, the statistical analysis of my self and trading results...
Totally makes sense, I'm working on the same thing. Except I'm still developing my trading plan/system to improve the foundations before testing a precise positive expectancy. Seems you've got it all figured out, good to know I'm on the right path.
Cool, ok, we're very similar. I'm really into weightlifting at the moment, though the biggest challenge for me is eating more. 'Mirin that physique, I'm along way off it but working on it every day
I actually saw a YouTube video on your channel I think of your dad smashing his curls out, unbelievable!
Hope you keep this thread up through your continued success,
Turismo
EDIT: Be cool if you could post a YT video of these 10 tick scalps, as I think I could learn a lot from them. Cheers bro.
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Quick update..just scalped another 3 10 tick winners to finish up 40 ticks on day..and 130 ticks on week so far. Not sure I will be trading tomorrow..Heading out tonight to see the classic metal band Judas Priest. Depends how I feel tomorrow...
.then I have done something worthwhile. 
